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Turkeys President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed victory on Sunday in a referendum on a proposal to massively expand his power, while dismissing the objections of opposition parties who challenged the outcome of the vote.

Erdogans victory sets in motion a transformation of Turkish politics, replacing the current parliamentary system with one dominated by a powerful presidency. According to preliminary results, a small majority of Turkish voters approved the set of 18 constitutional amendments that limits parliaments oversight of the executive, eliminates the office of the Prime Minister, and expands presidential power over judicial appointments. Erdogan and his supporters say the constitutional changes are needed to ensure stability, while opponents denounced the amendments as a step toward an era of autocracy.

The narrow, disputed outcome of the vote also sets the stage for a bitter struggle over the validity of the referendum results. According to Turkeys state news agency, the yes vote won by a margin of 51.2% to 48.8%. However, two opposition parties said they would challenge the result, citing violations in the vote-counting procedure. The campaign also took place in the wake of a vast political crackdown in Turkey following a failed military coup last July. The questions about the referendums results now promise to sow even more division in a country already deeply polarized over the figure of Erdogan and the merits of his proposed presidential system.

Addressing his supporters on Sunday night, Erdogan brushed aside questions of legitimacy, claiming a definitive victory in the referendum. "The discussion is over. 'Yes' has won."

Throughout the referendum campaign, Erdogan has argued the new system of government would introduce political stability and security. It certainly promises to make Erdogan the undisputed leader of Turkey for years to come, inviting comparisons to Vladimir Putin of Russia and other populist autocrats.

Whos going to stop Erdogan? There never was anyone to stop Erdogan, but now, even the formal possibility of there being something is erased from the law, says Selim Sazak, a fellow at the Delma Institute, an Abu Dhabibased think tank.

The dispute over the outcome of the referendum centers on a last-minute decision by the state election board to count ballots that did not receive an official authenticating stamp. The countrys largest opposition party says that as many as 1.5 million ballots did not receive such a stamp, a number that would more than account for the margin of victory in the margin of victory of 1.3 million reported by the state news agency. "At least half the country said no to constitutional change. This shouldn't be carried against the publics will, said Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the centrist Republican Peoples Party, in a televised address on Sunday night. Angry demonstrations erupted late Sunday night in neighborhoods of Istanbul where the opposition is heavily represented.

This is a very close call, so I dont think people are going to let it go necessarily. It will probably be talked about for some time, says Selim Koru, an analyst at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey. He adds, The President is obviously going to continue and try to enact a transition to make everything irreversible as quickly as he can.

The entire referendum campaign took place amid political crackdown in the aftermath of a deadly military coup last July that failed to dislodge Erdogan and killed more than 200 people. After surviving the coup attempt, Erdogan moved to consolidate power, with authorities jailing thousands and dismissing tens of thousands of civil servants, soldiers, police officers, teachers, justice officials and others from their jobs. In a parallel set of court cases, hundreds of members of one major opposition party the Peoples Democratic Party have been imprisoned on terrorism charges, among them Members of Parliament. The government accuses the party of ties to outlawed Kurdish militants who are engaged in a long-running war with the Turkish state.

The results of the national vote also suggest some weaknesses in the Presidents base of support. In Istanbul, Turkeys largest city, where Erdogan came of age and rose to stardom as the elected mayor in the 1990s, the no votes edged out the yes votes. The "no" campaign also won the capital, Ankara, as well as Izmir, a major coastal city. A significant number of supporters of Erdogans own party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), voted against the constitutional changes, signaling distrust with a the expansion of the power of a President who already has unrivaled control.

In Istanbuls Kasimpasa neighborhood, where Erdogan lived as a teenager and a young man, some of the Presidents supporters said they voted no.

A presidential system doesnt sound right to me, said Nazli Kaya, 32, standing outside a polling station in a school in Kasimpasa. I believe in diversity. I dont want a one-man system, she says.

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Erdogan's Referendum Victory Leaves Turkey More Divided ...

Nine months ago, after fighting off a coup attempt, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed that his opponents would pay a heavy price. And pay they did: The autocratic-minded president embarked on a sweeping purge that left nearly 170,000 compatriots, viewed by the president as enemies, either behind bars or forced from their jobs.

Now the Turkish leader may be setting his sights on another perceived foe: the West.

The confrontation, were it to escalate, could have lasting repercussions for the U.S.-led fight against the militants of Islamic State, Europes migrant crisis and perhaps even the NATO alliance, of which Turkey is one of only two Muslim-majority members. It has the blocs second-largest military.

Erdogan had hoped to put a final seal on his consolidation of power this week by decisively winning a referendum that replaces Turkeys century-old parliamentary democracy with a presidential system. It greatly expands the presidents authority and would allow Erdogan to serve for an additional 15 years in office.

But the margin of victory in Sundays balloting was razor-thin, and the votes legitimacy was sharply questioned by both domestic opponents and foreign observers.

The opposition Republican Peoples Party on Monday demanded the annulment of the constitutional referendum, charging that the rules for counting ballots were changed illegally in the midst of voting. And observers from the Council of Europe issued a scathing report, saying the campaign took place on an unlevel playing field and that the rules for organizing the referendum were not up to international standards.

For the 63-year-old leader, the muddied result was a fury-inducing affront. Addressing supporters in the Turkish capital, Ankara, on Monday, Erdogan denounced the crusader mentality in the West a loaded reference to Europes medieval holy wars aimed at Islam.

Bashing the West, particularly Europe, is a well-thumbed page in the Erdogan playbook, a sure-fire way of appealing to his conservative, nationalistic base at home.

In recent months, the Turkish president has quarreled repeatedly and publicly with European leaders. Most recently, he accused the Netherlands and Germany of Nazi-like behavior when they prevented Turkish politicians visiting those countries from campaigning for the referendum in front of crowds of expatriate Turks.

This time, though, a leader who had once touted himself as a bridge between East and West appeared determined to issue a rebuke to Europe that was more than symbolic. At several appearances Monday, he emphasized his readiness to restore the death penalty, a step that would all but kill Turkeys decades-long campaign to join the European Union.

Playing to popular Turkish sentiment, Erdogan has also said the question of whether to continue seeking EU membership should be put to a referendum.

That resonates well with his constituency, and beyond, said Gonul Tol, the director of the Middle East Institutes Center for Turkish Studies. If you talk to a regular Turk in the street about the European Union, you hear this often: They wont accept us because were Muslim.

While Erdogan may be grappling with Europe, he seems to have retained one Western friend: Donald Trump.

In a remarkably friendly telephone conversation, Trump congratulated Erdogan for the referendum victory, apparently ignoring the narrow margin, allegations of fraud and criticisms of overreaching power, according to an account released by the White House.

Instead, Trump focused on Syria, the "importance of holding Syrian President Bashar al Assad accountable" for the recent chemical attack on his people and the fight against Islamic State, the White House said. He thanked Erdogan for his support.

Turkeys growing estrangement comes at a time when Ankaras cooperation with the West is at a premium. Europe needs Turkey to continue stemming the flow of refugees to its shores via the short sea voyage from Turkey to Greece. And Turkey is an important partner in the anti-Islamic State coalition, with the U.S. using Turkeys sprawling Incirlik Air Base as a major staging ground.

But Turkeys own needs are more in play in its dealings with Washington than with Europe, Tol and others said.

The government still very much values its partnership with the United States, said Tol. That relationship, she said, remained strong despite tensions over Turkeys unfulfilled demand for the extradition of self-exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen, who lives in Pennsylvania and is blamed by Erdogan for fomenting Julys attempted coup.

The referendum result left little doubt that Erdogan is presiding over a deeply polarized country, already beset by violent spillover from the war in Syria and a flaring Kurdish insurgency. The Turkish leader had argued that the wholesale overhaul of the republics political structure would help stave off instability.

Official results were not expected for 10 or 12 days, but Turkish election authorities said preliminary results gave a majority of 51.41% to 48.59% to the package of 18 constitutional amendments.

The vote illustrated long-standing divisions: secular Turks pitted against more pious Muslims, cosmopolitan urbanites versus the conservative rural heartland, and tensions between those who embrace a Turkish role in the wider world and homegrown nationalists.

Erdogan has been in power since 2003, his rise coinciding with Turkeys emergence as an industrial dynamo, though its economy has since faltered, and as a regional heavyweight, with a large footprint in Syrias civil war.

The consolidation of authority makes Erdogan the most consequential Turkish leader since Kemal Ataturk, the founding father of the republic that arose from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire. Erdogan often harks back to past imperial glory with grandiose gestures like the construction of a lavish 1,000-room Ottoman-themed presidential palace.

Mindful of Erdogans reputation for holding fast to grudges, European leaders urged him to consider the narrow referendum result a mandate to reach out to his political opponents. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in a statement issued along with her foreign minister, said the closeness of the contest pointed to a big responsibility for the Turkish leadership and for President Erdogan personally.

But analysts expressed doubt such rapprochement would occur, with the exception of a possible effort by Erdogan to try to mend fences with the Kurds and restart negotiations aimed at halting the insurgency.

Hes a double-down kind of guy hes not going to be more moderate and reach out to the opposition, said James Jeffrey, a former ambassador to Turkey who is now an analyst with the Washington Institute.

The bitterness was apparent on both sides of the referendum question.

This referendum will take its place in the dark pages of history, said Bulent Tezcan, the deputy leader of the Republican Peoples Party, or CHP. This referendum will always be remembered as illegitimate.

The CHP, founded by Ataturk, called for annulment of the result. Its primary complaint was that ballots are required by law to have the stamp of the Supreme Board of Elections to be valid, but the board decreed midway through the voting that unstamped papers were valid unless there was clear evidence of fraud.

The CHP said at least 1 million ballots were stamped after they were handed in. Thats close to the winning margin for yes, which according to unofficial results received 24.3 million votes, compared to 23.2 million for no votes.

The report by the international referendum observer mission, meanwhile, said the legal framework for the vote was inadequate for a genuinely democratic referendum. It also faulted Turkish authorities for holding the vote during a state of emergency, under which the government issued decrees that affected the outcome but could not be challenged.

The observers were from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which monitors compliance with human rights norms, and the Council of Europe, which sets them. They complained that coverage by the news media, which has been significantly purged of critical voices under Erdogan, was significantly imbalanced, with three-quarters of the coverage going to the yes campaign.

Special correspondent Gutman reported from Istanbul and staff writer King from Washington. Staff writer Tracy Wilkinson contributed to this report from Washington.

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UPDATES:

8:50 p.m.: The article was updated with news of President Trumps phone call to Erdogan.

5:05 p.m.: This article has been updated throughout with details, quotes, background, analysis.

This article was originally posted at 12:10 p.m.

An earlier version of this story said Turkey was the only Muslim-majority nation in NATO. It is one of two. Albania is the other.

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Turkey's Erdogan lashes out at West after disappointingly ...

President Donald Trump congratulated Turkeys President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his referendum victory, a sharp departure from the critical reception many European officials have given the vote to expand Erdogans powers.

The Turkish leader stepped up his vitriol against European critics on Monday, telling a crowd of supporters, We dont care about the opinions of Hans or George or Helga. All debates about the constitutional referendum are now over, he said.

European officials have deplored the concentration of so much power in one persons hands, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has faulted Sundays election process. The vote fell under suspicion because ballots that didnt carry an official stamp were allowed to be tallied. The approval of expanded presidential powers won by a narrow majority of 51.4 percent.

QuickTake Erdogans Referendum Victory

The U.S. State Department cited observed irregularities in the conduct of the vote, but White House spokesman Sean Spicer wouldnt be drawn into the debate, saying at a press briefing on Monday that the U.S. would wait until international monitors complete their review.

Before we start getting into their governing system, let this commission go through its work, Spicer said.

French presidential candidate Francois Fillon told Europe1 radio that it wasnt helpful that Trump rushed to congratulate Erdogan, who has rolled back democracy in his country.

The OSCEs head of mission, Tana de Zulueta, said on Monday that freedom of expression was curbed during the campaign, that the conditions of the vote fell well short of international standards, and that some election monitors were inhibited from doing the job they were invited to do. Turkish opposition figures have already demanded the vote be annulled.

The balloting was held under a state of emergency thats been in place since a failed coup last July, and is in the process of being extended for three more months. Since the takeover attempt, some 40,000 of Erdogans alleged opponents have been jailed and about 100,000 more fired from civil service jobs.

In view of these observers reports, the close referendum result and the far-reaching implications of the constitutional amendments, we call on the Turkish authorities to consider the next steps very carefully and seek the broadest possible national consensus in the follow-up to the referendum, Margaritis Schinas, spokesman for the European Commission, told reporters in Brussels on Tuesday.

Serious Problems to Come for Turkey, Says Former Lawmaker

In another challenge to Turkeys European partners, Erdogan said a separate referendum might be held on putting an end to its EU candidacy. Previously, hed promised to revisit the European relationship once the referendum was out of the way. Membership in the European Union has been a goal of Turkish governments for more than 50 years.

A referendum on continuing the bid may be moot if another of Erdogans proposals gets passed. Revisiting a key theme of the campaign trail, he again touted the possibility of reinstituting the death penalty, which Turkey abolished in 2004 to meet a condition for EU membership.

EU foreign-policy chief Federica Mogherini said foreign ministers will meet next week in Malta to discuss the outcome of the referendum and the future of Turkeys relationship with the bloc.

The membership perspective has de facto been buried, as Erdogan has told all of us that he considers Europe to be a dilapidated continent, Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern said in a statement. This means for us that were now entering a new era, that we need a new arrangement of our political relationship with Turkey.

The White House said the leaders also discussed the war in Syria, which has complicated ties between the two countries.

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Erdogan opposes U.S support for Syrian Kurdish rebels because he considers them terrorists and sees their wartime territorial gains as threatening his countrys efforts to vanquish its own separatist Kurdish insurgency. In his speech on Sunday, Erdogan said, We expect those states that we call allies, in particular, to develop their relations with our country in line with our sensitivities, especially on the fight against terrorism.

The White House said the two leaders discussed the campaign against Islamic State, including the need to cooperate against all groups that use terrorism to achieve their ends.

Originally posted here:
Trump Congratulates Erdogan on Referendum as Europe Seethes ...

Foreign Policy (blog)

It's Time for Erdogan to Admit He's Not a Democrat Foreign Policy (blog) One day after Turkey's presidential referendum, with allegations of fraud mounting and the opposition still contesting the results, U.S. President Donald Trump called to congratulate Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his victory and discuss the campaign against ... As Erdogan gains power in Turkey, a weakened opposition tries to stand in his wayWashington Post About That Phone Call to Erdogan The Weekly Standard Trump Congratulates Erdogan on Turkey Vote Cementing His RuleNew York Times Bloomberg -CIproud.com -Fox News all 3,545 news articles »

Originally posted here:
It's Time for Erdogan to Admit He's Not a Democrat - Foreign Policy (blog)

In late February, as the United States and the rest of the world were adjusting to President Donald Trump, and Turkey was focused on a push by its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to expand his power, Erdogan agreed to an unusual meeting with some American visitors.

The guests included Rudolph Giuliani, a former New York City mayor who had acted as a surrogate for Trump during his campaign, and another prominent lawyer, Michael Mukasey, who served as attorney general in US president George W Bushs administration.

The purpose of the visit by Giuliani and Mukasey was rather extraordinary: They hoped to reach a diplomatic deal under which Turkey might further aid US interests in the region. In return, the United States might release the two mens client, Reza Zarrab, a Turkish gold trader being held in a Manhattan jail whose case had attracted Erdogans interest.

Mukasey, in court papers made public on Wednesday, characterised the meeting as part of an effort to seek a state-to-state resolution of this case, and he hinted at some progress: Senior officials in both the US government and the Turkish government remain receptive to pursuing the possibility of an agreement.

Plea bargaining, even for the most well-connected of defendants, is normally conducted by defence lawyers and prosecutors, often in courthouse corridors or drab government offices. But the efforts being made on behalf of Zarrab, which have also involved discussions at high levels of the Trump administration, show the way political access and diplomatic overtures can also be employed.

Zarrab (33) is a well-known figure in Turkey. He is married to a Turkish pop star and is regarded as a member of Erdogans circle of friends and associates. Photographs show Erdogans wife, Emine, attending at least one charity event alongside Zarrab and his wife.

Zarrab had also amassed a considerable fortune, according to US prosecutors, who say his holdings included ownership in a private aeroplane and about 20 properties, boats, luxury automobiles and millions of dollars worth of artwork.

In 2013, Zarrab was detained by Turkish authorities in a wide-ranging corruption investigation of businessmen with close ties to Erdogan, who was then Turkeys prime minister. But Zarrab used his wealth and influence with the Turkish government to win his release from prison, US prosecutors have said.

They raised the issue of what they called Zarrabs corrupt political connections in 2016 when they argued that he not get bail in New York, where he faces charges that include conspiring to facilitate millions of dollars of transactions on behalf of Iran and other sanctioned entities through the use of false documents and front companies. Zarrab was born in Iran, moved to Turkey as an infant and has citizenship in both countries. He has pleaded not guilty.

Erdogan, in taking a personal interest in the case, said last year that there were malicious intentions in the prosecution, and he also raised the matter with vice president Joe Biden during talks at the United Nations, according to Turkish news reports.

We have to seek justice, for he is our citizen, Erdogan said of Zarrab in September.

The subject of Zarrab came up again three weeks ago during a visit to Ankara, Turkey, by US secretary of state Rex Tillerson. During that visit, Turkeys foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, accused Preet Bharara, the US attorney in Manhattan whose office first charged Zarrab, of being a pawn of anti-Turkish forces.

Bharara, who was fired by Trump last month, had characterised Cavusoglus remarks as political propaganda. On Thursday, after the New York Times reported on the strategy by Giuliani and Mukasey to turn the case involving Zarrab into a matter of international diplomacy, Bharara said on Twitter: One just hopes that the rule of law, and its independent enforcement, still matters in the United States and at the Department of Justice.

The efforts on Zarrabs behalf come at a time when Erdogan has become even more powerful in Turkey after a hotly disputed referendum that expanded his authoritarian rule and drew a congratulatory phone call from Trump on Monday.

Erdogan and Trump have made overtures to each another that suggest Turkey and the United States could become closer allies. The new court filing, by Zarrabs lead lawyer, Benjamin Brafman, includes affidavits from Giuliani and Mukasey that make it clear they hoped to get Erdogan to accept the notion that a diplomatic deal could be of mutual interest to Turkey and the United States.

They write in the affidavits that a resolution that would be favourable for Zarrab could be part of some agreement between the United States and Turkey that will promote the national security interests of the United States.

Giuliani and Mukasey suggest that it was hardly surprising that senior Turkish and US officials were receptive to a possible deal, considering that none of the transactions in which Zarrab is accused of participating involved weapons or nuclear technology, or any other contraband, and that Turkey is situated in a part of the world strategically critical to the United States.

Some analysts in Turkey suggested that if Zarrab were to be freed or returned to Turkey, Erdogan might be more inclined to fall in line with US interests in the Middle East. Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and the chairman of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a liberal-leaning Turkish think tank, said the strategy implied that allowing a free pass to Zarrab and company would create good will in Ankara that Washington could use to advance its own regional agenda, with clearer support or at least less interference from the Turkish government.

Erdogan, for example, might be less resistant to US plans to retake Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State terror group, also known as Isis, in collaboration with a Syrian Kurdish faction. Turkey regards that faction, known as the PYD, as the Syrian offshoot of a proscribed militant group that operates on Turkish soil.

A swift end to the case against Zarrab, Ulgen said, might mean Turkey would be much less resistant to the USs missions in Syria, and primarily its support to the PYD. The United States also needs Turkey to continue to allow anti-Islamic State bombing missions to fly out of an air base in the southern part of the country.

Analysts supportive of Erdogans government contend that Zarrabs fate is of limited interest to the Turkish state. In the view of these analysts, the charges against him are spurious and were concocted to smear the Turkish president.

This Zarrab issue is not a state issue in Turkey, said Hasan Yalcin, strategic research director at Seta, a government-friendly think tank in Ankara. Its not an issue that the Turkish state is focusing on; its just speculation that the Turkish state is related to Zarrab.

State news media in Turkey reported last week that Istanbuls chief prosecutor had opened an investigation into Bharara and 16 other US-linked individuals in what western diplomats regarded as retaliation for the Zarrab case.

The affidavits by Giuliani and Mukasey were filed by Brafman, the defence lawyer, at the request of the judge, Richard Berman of US district court. Berman initially said the affidavits could be filed under seal and ex parte, meaning the government would also not be able to see them. He subsequently directed that they be filed publicly, Brafman said.

The affidavits speak for themselves, Brafman said, declining further comment. Giuliani and Mukasey write that both attorney general Jeff Sessions and Bharara had been apprised in general terms before the two lawyers meetings with Erdogan and other Turkish officials. They say they also discussed their roles with, and were briefed by, a State Department representative in Turkey before seeing Erdogan.

Copies of Zarrabs retainer agreements with Giulianis and Mukaseys law firms were also filed with the court but were not unsealed.

New York Times

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Rudy Giuliani, the jailed Turkish gold trader and the secret meeting with Erdogan - Irish Times