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There are two new developments on the Syrian front. The Islamic State suddenly changed its tactic and the Turkish President Erdogan again changed his policy course.

In the last 24 hours news announcements about victories against the Islamic state (ISIS) rapidly followed each other:

While ISIS was under pressure everywhere the sudden retreat on all fronts during the last 24 hours is astonishing and suggest some synchronicity. A central order must have been given to pull back to the buildup areas of Raqqa in Syria and south Mosul in Iraq.

But ISIS has nowhere to go from those areas. Mosul is completely surrounded and Raqqa is mostly cut off. After the massacres they committed everywhere ISIS fighters can not expect any mercy. They have made enemies everywhere and aside from a few (Saudi) radical clerics no friends are left to help them. The recent retreats are thereby likely not signs of surrender. ISIS will continue to fight until it is completely destroyed. But for now the ISIS leaders decided to preserve their forces. One wonders what they plan to stage as their last glorious show. A mass atrocity against the civilians in the cities it occupies?

When in late 2016 the defeat of the Syrian rebels proxy forces in east-Aleppo city was foreseeable the Turkish President Erdogan switched from supporting the radicals in north-west Syria to a more lenient stand towards Syria and its allies Russia and Iran. The move followed month of on and off prodding from Russia and after several attempts by Erdogan to get more U.S. support had failed. In late December peace talksstartedbetween Syria, Russia, Turkey and Iran with the U.S. and the EU excluded.

But after the Trump administration took over the Turkish position changed again. Erdogan is nowback to bettingon a stronger U.S. intervention in Syria that would favor his original plans of installing in Syria an Islamic government under Turkish control:

Ankara understands today that Trump is aggressive toward Iran and gave his blessing to Saudi Arabia. Therefore Erdogan is taking a new position: hiding behind Saudi Arabia, mimicking the US hostility towards Iran and, in consequences, declaring himself once more against the Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The new Turkish position wasconfirmedby Senator John McCains visit to the Kurdish YPG and U.S. Special Forces in Kobani. McCain came via Turkey. An earlier visits to the YPK by U.S. special envoy Brett McGurk had been condemned by Ankara. Outside of a wider agreement such McCains antics would not be allowed.

The U.S. is allied with the Kurdish YPK in Syria who are blood-brothers of the Kurdish PKK group in Turkey which the Turkish government has been fighting for decades. The YPG fighters are good and reliable light infantry fighters. They work together with U.S. special forces and are well regarded.

Turkey offers to send its own ground troopstogether with Saudi forcesto liberate Raqqa from ISIS. The expertise the Saudi military shows in Yemen combined with the Turkish military prowess in its Euphrates Shield operation in Syria will surely will be welcome by the U.S. military.

But there are bigger strategic issues at stake and some agreement between the U.S., Turkey and the Saudishas been found(adopted machine translation):

[T]he sudden transformation of the Turkish position occurred after a lengthy conversation conducted with the US president, Donald Trump, and the visit by the head of the U.S. intelligence agency (CIA). A re-shuffling of the cards took place which induced another turn in Ankara on the Syrian file. The new U.S.-Turkish understandings that fixed the bridge between President Erdogan and the old U.S. ally is based on the escalation of hostility to Iran and the (re-)establishment of a Sunni axis led by the Turkish president. It includes the establishment of a buffer zone in Syria as a prelude to a partitioning [of Syria] scenario.

This is essentially a fall back to the positions taken by the Obama administration in 2011/12. The lessons learned since will have to be relearned. The signals from the U.S. military now suggest the introduction of additional regular ground troops in support of a U.S. proxy force and an eventual U.S. protected enclave in east-Syria. The YPK is the only reliable proxy force available to the U.S. and it needs heavier weapon support to take on Raqqa. But U.S. boots on ground in the Middle East have never been a solution. They are a guarantee of extended fighting and eventual failure.

The strategic view is contradictory. The U.S. wants to fight the Sunni radical forces that Saudi Arabia grows and pampers. Even while ISIS gets diminished new such forces are already growing in Iraq. Any anti-radical strategy that builds on cooperation with the Saudis will fail.

It is impossible to get Turkey and the YPK/PKK to fight on one side McCain visit or not. The U.S. would loose its only reliable proxy force in Syria should it make common cause with Erdogan in the fight about Raqqa. Any anti-Kurdish Turkish-U.S. controlled safe zone in north Syria will come under fire from all other sides on the ground. Any U.S. base in Syria will be the target of various regular and irregular forces. In the long term the new plans are doomed and Erdogans latest u-turn is unlikely to be rewarded.

But until then we can expect more bloodshed and more fighting in Syria. As Eljah Magniercomments:

The US policy in Syria seems frantic and far-fetched without efficient powerful allies on the ground, and is unable to retake cities from ISIS with its Kurdish proxies alone. And the honeymoon between Washington and Riyadh will certainly have a substantial negative effect on the war in Syria. This will increase the closeness between Russia and Iran, but the tension between US and Russia is also expected to increase: one side (the US) wants partition and the other (Russia) wants a unified Syria without al-Qaida and ISIS, and without Turkey occupying the north of Syria and a Saudi Arabia return to the Bilad al-Sham. At this stage, it is difficult to speculate on what this clash of incompatible objectives will produce on the ground in Syria.

Go here to read the rest:
Syria A Confused Trump Strategy Lets Erdogan U-Turn Again - Center for Research on Globalization

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Originally posted here:
Erdogan Assassination Attempt Trial Opens - wsj.com

I participated Tuesday in a conference about the eastern Mediterranean at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA) just outside Tel Aviv; and because Tel Aviv is the diplomatic center of Israel, its events attract a good number of diplomats. Tuesday was no exception, with a foreign minister and other diplomats from several eastern Mediterranean countries, including Albania, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, and Turkey.

My talk surveyed the role of Islamism in the region. In the question-and-answer period, Turkeys newly-appointed ambassador, Kemal kem, vigorously protested points I had made about his country. I defended these, then challenged kem (in a video that can be viewed here):

Pipes: I started going to Turkey in 1972. I studied Turkish, not very successfully, but I did study it. Ive gone back many times. And at this point, I dare not go back to Turkey because I am critical, as you may have heard, of the government and, in particular, I supported the July 15th coup [a position] which is absolutely an outrage in Turkey. And so, I dare not go back to Turkey. And so, let me ask you, Mr. Ambassador, would it be it safe for me to go to Turkey and spend some time there or just go through the airport? You have a great airline that I would love to use but I dare not use it. Would I be safe going to Turkey?

kem: If you say that you support the failed coup attempt that killed 250 Turkish civilians and if you that say you support the kind of organization which we call a terrorist organization, which is a religious cult by the way, and trying to export something, if you say that, I would rather advise you not to go there because you be an accomplice, considered an accomplice. [laughter]

Pipes: Thats what I was expecting.

kem: Its an expected answer but its legitimate answer. I mean, I would advise you to find good legal advice before you travel to Turkey.

The name of that terrorist organization was not spoken, but kem was referring to the so-called Fethullah Terr rgt, or FET (Fethullah Terror Organization). To the rest of the world, its the Hizmet movement founded by Fethullah Glen, a former close and important ally of Erdogans until the two of them split. No one else sees it as violent, much less terroristic. Erdogans accusation that it organized the July 2016 coup attempt is noxious and absurd.

This ambassadors statement has several interesting implications:

Left unspoken was what would happen to me, were I foolish enough to venture to Turkey, so Ill make it explicit here: As someone deemed an accomplice of FET, I would be jailed without charges and held for who-knows-how-long.

This is despite my having a long record of being critical of the Glen movement. For example, the Middle East Quarterly, a journal I publish, ran so important a critical article on Hizmet by Rachel Sharon-Krespin in 2009 that it was translated and prominently featured by the leftist Turkish daily Cumhuriyet.

An arch critic of the Soviet Union, such as my father, Richard Pipes, had no problem visiting Russia in the still-repressive post-Stalinist era. In other words, Ankara, a member of NATO and a formal ally of the United States, imposes a higher level of thought control than did the USSR.

Turkish Airlines would seem to be the only airline whose passengers must pass an ideological test if they hope to complete their journey without danger of getting thrown in jail.

I have visited Turkey, one of my favorite destinations, ten times over 45 years, with the final trip in 2012. I shall miss the country. Like tens of millions of Turks, I look forward to celebrating the early termination of the Erdogan regime.

More:
Erdogan to Me: Stay Out of Turkey - National Review

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted a family dinner in honour of Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Ankara, media reports said on Thursday.

Turkish First Lady Emine Erdogan and Begum Kalsoom Nawaz also joined the Wednesday dinner at the residence of the Turkish President, Geo TV reported.

Sharif, who arrived here on Wednesday on a three-day visit, will take part in the fifth meeting of the High Level Strategic Cooperation Council (HLSCC) on Thursday.

He will co-chair the meeting with his Turkish counterpart Binali Yildirim. A number of MoUs are expected to be signed.

(Sharifs) visit to Turkey ... would further deepen the time-tested, unparalleled and historic ties between the two brotherly countries and would impart a strong impetus to their flourishing cooperation in diverse fields, the Pakistan Foreign Office said.

Sharifs delegation to Turkey includes minister for petroleum Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, minister for commerce Khurram Dastgir and Sharifs special assistant on foreign affairs Tariq Fatemi.

Sharif will also hold talks with Erdogan on bilateral, regional and international issues and visit the Turkish Parliament.

See the original post:
Turkish President Erdogan hosts family dinner for Pak PM Sharif - Hindustan Times

Relations between Athens and Ankara will remain in a critical phase at least until April 16, when Turks go to the polls to vote in a referendum on constitutional reforms, which, among other things, give the president significantly increased executive powers.

It is unfortunate that this period of political flux in Turkey coincides with a terrible economic crisis in Greece and a general flagging of public morale after seven years in the doldrums. But this is how things stand, and Athens should act accordingly.

For months we have heard Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan being lambasted for his politics and idiosyncrasies, or because of his highly unconventional attitude toward the values and rules of Europe and international justice. While such criticism may be worthy as an intellectual exercise, it serves no purpose whatsoever.

This writer is in no way suggesting we should try to be more understanding toward Erodgan. Turkeys provocative behavior, be it in the Aegean or elsewhere, needs always to be dealt with with determination and according to the rule of law.

This sends a message to the Turkish military officers carrying out the provocation.

Greece needs to use the demarche process and it must also keep NATO informed when Ankara pushes things too far in the Aegean. Greece has every right to defend itself and its interests, and this should be an indisputable fact.

However, when it comes to defense and security issues, confrontational rhetoric is seldom productive. More importantly, Greece simply doesnt need it.

Erdogan, in contrast, and particularly after the failed coup last summer, will use every means at his disposal to achieve the greatest possible support from the people of Turkey and help him achieve his ambitions.

In this context, the Turkish presidents rapprochement with the ultranationalist Gray Wolves party was not just unsurprising, but expected, especially after Erdogan toughened his stance vis-a-vis the Kurds. Provocations in the Aegean are just part and parcel of all this.

In this sense, we need to consider whether at the end of the day, the warning issued on Tuesday by Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias who said Athens will not be as tolerant if the incident of live ammunition being fired in the Aegean is repeated serves to prevent or stoke further escalation.

Greece has no reason to play Erdogans game of domestic politics. It needs only to stay firm and prudent.

Original post:
Athens doesn't need to play Erdogan's game - Kathimerini