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Istanbul (AFP) - If there was a global contest for winning elections, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would see himself as the undisputed -- and undefeated -- heavyweight champion of the world.

In one-and-a-half decades since his ruling party came to power, Erdogan has taken part in 11 elections -- five legislative polls, two referenda, three local elections and a presidential vote -- and won them all.

On Sunday, Erdogan faces his twelfth and arguably biggest ballot box challenge since his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, in a referendum on expanding his powers.

His supporters see the new system as a historic change that will create efficient government. But for detractors, it is a dangerous step towards one-man rule in the NATO member and EU candidate state.

Fighting for votes in every corner of the country, Erdogan has kept up a punishing schedule of daily rallies seeking to woo doubters with his indefatigable campaigning.

Prowling around the stage with a wireless microphone like a rock star, Erdogan bellows at the crowds: "Do you want a strong Turkey?".

Known to his inner circle as "beyefendi" (sir) and to admirers as "reis" (the chief), Erdogan is supreme on stage, holding the audience in the palm of his hand with near-matchless public speaking skills.

- 'Balancing act' -

Yet while Erdogan is seen in Western media as a near omnipotent sultan, there are constraints to his rule, according to Asli Aydintasbas, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

"Erdogan has to continue to win votes in order to stay in power and campaign round the clock," she said.

In order to win the referendum Erdogan has to perform a "delicate balancing act" of winning votes from both Kurds and nationalists, she added.

Erdogan also comes to the referendum after the most turbulent year of his political life which saw a slew of terror attacks, worsening relations with Europe and above all the July 15 failed coup.

He appeared on the FaceTime app on live TV to urge supporters to flood streets and defeat the coup, saying he escaped being killed by just 15 minutes before returning in triumph to Istanbul.

The president has courted ever more controversy as authorities jailed over 47,000 under a state of emergency which has lasted nine months so far.

There has even been talk of fissures within the ruling AKP and with his two other party co-founders -- former president Abdullah Gul and ex deputy prime minister Bulent Arinc -- both deafening in their silence by failing to endorse the new system.

- 'My crazy projects' -

If the new constitution is passed, Erdogan could stay in power until 2029, by which time the energetic president, 63, would be aged 75.

Erdogan appears determined to leave a legacy at least as significant as Turkey's modern founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk whose picture hangs next to his at rallies.

He has embarked on a hugely ambitious drive to modernise Turkey's infrastructure with a new bridge and two tunnels spanning the Bosphorus, high speed trains and the construction of a third airport for Istanbul, schemes he affectionately refers to as "my crazy projects".

But critics worrying of a creeping Islamisation of Turkey's officially secular society with a surge in mosque building, use of Islamic schools and the abolition of all restrictions on the headscarf in public life.

Born in Istanbul but brought up by the Black Sea, Erdogan is intensely proud of the humble origins from which he rose to be Turkey's most powerful politician since Ataturk.

He gained prominence in the nascent Islamic political movements that were starting to challenge secular domination, becoming a popular mayor of Istanbul in 1994.

He was jailed for four months for inciting religious hatred when he recited an Islamist poem, a term which only magnified his profile.

Founding the AKP after the previous Islamic party led by his mentor Necmettin Erbakan was banned, Erdogan spearheaded its 2002 landslide election victory and became premier less than six months later.

It was in these early days that the AKP, lacking allies, forged an alliance with the movement of US-based preacher Fethullah Gulen that would end with the sides becoming sworn enemies and Gulen blamed for masterminding the coup bid.

- Return to pragmatism? -

Protests in 2013 over plans to build a shopping mall on an Istanbul park provided a rallying cause for secular Turks but Erdogan came out fighting, famously slamming the protesters as "capulcu" ("hooligans").

In 2014 Erdogan was elected president in the first ever popular vote for the post and moved into a vast new presidential palace opponents denounced as a needless extravagance.

In June 2015 elections the AKP won the most votes but lost its overall majority for the first time. But Erdogan swatted away any proposal of a coalition and called new elections in November where the majority was restored.

Whatever the April 16 referendum's outcome, all eyes on April 17 will be turned to whether Erdogan softens the campaign rhetoric and adopts a more conciliatory stance, especially on the EU membership bid and the shattered peace process with Kurdish militants.

"He has been extremely pragmatic in the past, often when you least expect it," said Aydintasbas.

Read the original:
Erdogan: Turkey's pugnacious 'chief' eyeing new poll knockout

ISTANBUL Turkish voters began heading to the polls early Sunday in a pivotal referendum that, if approved, would significantly expand the powers of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and seal his political dominance over Turkey for a dozen more years.

Polls before the vote showed Turks evenly divided as they choose whether to approve constitutional amendments that would transform Turkeys system of government from a parliamentary to a presidential system.

The reforms would abolish the post of prime minister and give the president broad new authority over the judiciary changes that Erdogans supporters said would deliver stability and more sure-footed leadership or condemn Turkeys multiparty democracy to one-man rule, in the view of the presidents critics.

A yes vote would allow Erdogan, who came to power as prime minister in 2003, to stand for election in 2019 and serve two five-year terms, cementing, in the minds of many here, his status as the most consequential leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish republic.

The details of the amendments have confounded many voters, and the poll was instead widely seen as a verdict on the 15-year leadership of Erdogan and his Islamist Justice and Development Party, or AKP. The referendum comes at a moment of deep polarization in Turkey, in the wake of a failed coup last summer, with views of the powerful president eliciting sharply divergent views.

The referendum also comes as Turkeys Western allies, including the United States, are looking to Erdogan as an increasingly critical partner, which is leading a military coalition to defeat the Islamic State militant group in Iraq and Syria. Turkey also hosts more than 3 million refugees and has struck a deal with European nations to prevent more refugees from traveling to their shores.

There were questions about whether the referendum should have been held, with the country under a government-mandated state of emergency as a result of the coup attempt and a number of other recent shocks.

A war between the state and Kurdish militants has rekindled after the failure of a peace process. Deadly attacks have been carried out in Turkish cities by the Islamic State, unnerving the public and troubling the economy.

And, since the coup, the government has carried out a feverish purge of perceived enemies that has eviscerated state institutions, schools and universities. The purge has been accompanied by a crackdown on critical journalists, politicians and other civil society groups, which Erdogans opponents said gave the government a significant advantage as it embarked on the referendum campaign.

A leading opposition politician from the pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party, or HDP, was arrested in November, denying the No campaign one of its most visible and charismatic voices. As independent media outlets were shuttered or dragged into court, the AKPs campaign for Evet, or Yes, dominated Turkeys airwaves as well as its public spaces.

At the same time, Turkeys political opposition has long been regarded as ineffectual and divided. And as a campaigner, Erdogan is widely credited with uncommon gifts. A centerpiece of his latest campaign was a pitched fight with European leaders that stirred up nationalist, anti-Western sentiment at home.

His populism is effective in large part because it is heartfelt, wrote Howard Eissenstat, a professor of history at St. Lawrence University, in a recent paper that was sharply critical of Erdogan and the proposed constitutional changes. At the same time, he is capable of shockingly cynical calculations in the name of political survival.

Erdogans genius as a politician, his flair for rhetoric, his capacity to mobilize his base, and his sense of himself as a man of history have all served to put him at the center of Turkish politics for more than a decade, he wrote.

On the eve of the vote, Erdogans supporters tried to drive home the arguments they have made throughout the campaign: that the constitutional changes were a remedy to weak coalition governments, an affliction with a long history in Turkey, and that foreign opposition to the changes, including from European leaders, were intended to hold the country back.

They do not support this because they do not want what is best for Turkey, said Muhammet Sirin, a spokesman for a local AKP party branch in Istanbul, speaking of Erdogans foreign critics. They are still acting with the mentality of the crusades. This nation has woken up, and we are going to stand on our feet now, he said.

But Duygu Becerik, a 22-year-old law student who was campaigning for the No vote in Istanbul on Saturday, belonged to a generation that barely recalled the chaos of Turkeys flimsy coalition governments. Erdogan and the AKP had dominated the countrys politics since she was a child.

One of her professors had been fired from her university as part of the post-coup purges. Her rejection of the constitutional changes is not just personally directed at Erdogan, but is based in part on the fear that Turkey was creating an exceptionally powerful executive, not just for the current president but forever.

Erdogan will eventually die. Other people will take power exactly the same power but we dont know who, she said. That is problematic.

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Original post:
Turks to decide whether to give Erdogan vastly increased powers - Washington Post

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is notoriously thin-skinned. He responds to even the slightest criticism, with outrage and repression. While the world may view Turkeys leader as a moral midget, Erdogan sees himself as a giant on the world stage, deserving of the same respect in Berlin, Amsterdam, and Brussels that he demands in Istanbul and Ankara. He simply cannot broker European disagreement with his pronouncements and policies, believing that dissent is an insult to his self-perceived infallibility, wisdom, and position.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally for the upcoming referendum in Konya, Turkey, April 14, 2017. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

It is against this backdrop that European leaders should take the latest threat emerging from Turkey seriously. Turkish nationalist Sedat Peker, often described by the Turkish press as a mafia leader, initially threatened to use the Turkish diaspora in Europe to destabilize host countries but, more recently, has suggested that Turkey should seek to assassinate the prime ministers and presidents of European countries that defy Erdogan.

Given Pekers past convictions and established ties to the underworld, thats not necessarily an idle threat, nor can European officials take it as bluster given Turkish espionage on Turkish Kurds, journalists, and dissidents. Nor should Europe be alone in their concern. Wikileaks exposure of Erdogans son-in-laws emails show Turkish organizations and paid agents have also engaged in such actions in the United States.

There is precedent here. A victory for the yes camp in Turkeys referendum would simply culminate Erdogans slow motion revolution to reorient Turkey away from the West and to close the door on the era of Ataturk, modern Turkeys secular founder. Simply put and without hyperbole, the shift of Turkey back to the unabashed Islamist camp would mark as much of a sea change as Irans Islamic Revolution.

After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Iranian assassins traversed Europe hunting down those who opposed the new regime. Ayatollah Khomeini saw himself as Gods representative on earth and could tolerate no dissent. There is no reason why Erdogan could not engage in the same behavior. Indeed, it appears Erdogan is considering such a move. While the Erdogan regime cracked down on Peker for threatening a bloodbath against academics who signed a petition calling on security forces to stop targeting Kurds in Turkeys southeast, Erdogan has been noticeably silent in restraining Pekers threats to European leaders. Nor do states take the risk to conduct surveillance on targets if they are not at least considering further action.

Originally posted here:
Will Erdogan lash out in Europe? - American Enterprise Institute

As Turkey votes today on new powers for the president, one dissenting voice can be heard on the streets where he grew up

At 9am today, Hussein Ustunbas will leave his modest flat in the Kasimpasa district of Istanbul to cast a vote for the man he thinks will save Turkey.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a friend and former neighbour, is the only bulwark against the chaos that has swept his homeland, he believes.

We want stability, said Ustunbas, 67, a retired mechanic whose living room wall bears a photograph of his family posing with Erdogan and his wife, Emine. If he wins, there will be no suffering.

Across the road Ozcan Yildirim, 50, will leave his bakers shop for the same polling booth. But, to the disgust of his neighbours, he will vote no in a referendum on changes to the constitution that would make the president

Read the original post:
Lone rebel in Erdogan's back yard - The Times (subscription)

By Melina Dunham and Lisel Hintz By Melina Dunham and Lisel Hintz April 14 at 7:00 AM

After years of wrangling for constitutional reform to consolidate his political power, Turkeys President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may finally get his wish. On Sunday, Turkey will vote on a referendum that seeks to formally switch the governing system from a parliamentary to presidential regime.

Nearly all in Turkey agree the current constitution, drafted by the military in 1982, needs to be updated. However, the ruling Justice and Development Partys (AKP) previous use of constitutional reform packages to reconfiguredomestic politics is hotly contested. And this time around, opposition actors believe the stakes are higher than ever.

The AKP-backed referendum unsurprisingly seeks to further reduce the role of the military in politics. After all, the Turkish Armed Forces and the AKP have had a rocky relationship to say the least, especially since the failed July 2016 coup attempt and the governments subsequent purge of the military. What is surprising are the extreme, even bizarre tactics to which the party is resorting to win in Sundays polls. Examining the AKPs efforts reveals just how much of a personal and professional stake Erdogan has in this referendum.

[Journalism is becoming powerless: Inside a nervous Turkish newsroom as the government closes in]

In an attempt to delegitimize the opposition, AKP campaign materials have linked No voters with Fethullah Glen a self-exiled Islamic cleric living in the United States, whom the AKP blames for the 2016 coup attempt branding supporters of both as terrorists. Hammering home the terrorism theme, one campaign poster ominously suggests voting No in the referendum equates to voting Yes for Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Turkey's people will vote on April 16 on a referendum that could change the constitution to grant President Tayyip Erdogan new powers. (Reuters)

In one particularly unusual bid to gain votes, Erdogan recently issued an emergency decree allowing beauticians to use hospital-grade tools for laser hair removal. Though viciously mocked by critics on social media, the highly publicized event served as a rally of fashionable women for Erdogan and the Yes vote.

What has prompted Erdogan and his supporters to resort to such tactics?

The short answer is because he has so much at stake. If the referendum passes, it would not only institutionalize a regime that has incrementally eroded Turkeys separation of powers under recent AKP rule but also entrench Erdogan at that regimes helm. If the Yes votes have it, Erdogan, the leading political figure since becoming prime minister in 2003, then assuming the presidency in 2014, could rule essentially unchecked until 2029, possibly even longer by some estimates.

But not if a motley myriad of No supporters has anything to say about it.

Opposition to an executive presidency makes for strange bedfellows

The Republican Peoples Party (CHP) is the main opposition party and has long criticized what they see as the AKPs Islamization of Turkeys secular republic. The extreme-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) is more divided. While aging MHP leader Devlet Baheli switched his tune from comparing Erdogan to Hitler to trying to rally his partys support for the referendum, rival MHP member Meral Akener gathered momentum after sharing a photo of her hand with a henna tattoo of a Turkish flag to announce her No vote on social media. The resulting hashtag #KinaliEllerHayirDiyor (Hands with Henna Say No) trended as a symbol of resistance for days.

Though ideologically at extreme odds with the MHP, Turkeys pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) also virulently opposes the referendum. And whileKurdish leadership had briefly supported the idea of a presidential system during a short-lived solution process from 2013 to 2015, the breakdown of negotiations and of the PKKs cease-fire has since hardened the enmity between the leaders and their respective constituencies. Despite the imprisonment of its two co-chairs and many local leaders on terrorist charges, HDP members seem determined to continue their No campaign.

In a close race, government repression matters

This weekend, however, none of this varied and strident opposition may matter much. Predicted outcomes of the referendum have fluctuated and vary by polling agency. In general, No seemed likely to prevail shortly after the vote was announced, while numbers released by Turkish polling companies ANAR and Konsensus on Wednesday predict a slight victory for Yes.

Reports suggest that AKP supporters are engaged in undemocratic practices to stymie opposition, including tactics known by scholars of comparative politics to create an uneven playing field. In particular, AKP has dominated the media by violent intimidation, media takeovers and silencing opposition voices. The Yes campaign received approximately 90 percent of airtime. Supposedly neutral public appearances such as inaugurations or, say, decrees about beauticians often turn into campaign speeches, while Turkish media generally neglect or refuse to cover opposition rallies.

Meanwhile, No billboards have been removed in AKP-friendly districts and campaign songs encouraging voters to reject the referendum have been banned. The Turkish government has also targeted social media users; 21-year-old Ali Gl was arrested after posting a No-themed video on YouTube, in which he rhetorically asks if he will be arrested.

Although independent election observer groups cannot participate at the polls due to the state of emergency, party members can witness polling procedures. Many would-be party observers have had their applications rejected by local election boards favorable to the AKP. Other reports of foul play include beatings of declared No voters and threats by AKP officials that Kurdish homes destroyed during the military campaign will not be rebuilt if No prevails.

Take it outside! Domestic politics in the foreign policy arena.

When actors face obstacles to political projects at home they may take the fight outside, as Europe has witnessed lately. Erdogan sent Foreign Minister Mevlut avuolu to the Netherlands to hold rallies stirring up support for the referendum among Turks living abroad. When Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte himself facing an election blocked avuolus entry in a last-minute show of political strength, Erdogan turned this rebuff to his advantage by accusing the West of openly obstructing the referendum.

Erdogan responded to his ministers being turned away by calling Europeans racists, Nazis and fascists. Adding that medieval Europe was the enemy of the Turks and Islam, the president cleverly used Turks resentment at apparent European discrimination to suit him electorally. By creating an external enemy while courting votes internationally, Erdogan generates support from Turkeys nationalists at home and abroad.

Risky business

With the election too close to predict, both sides are clearly under pressure. Resource control and the use of intimidation from the Yes side force us to consider just what is motivating Erdogan to play every possible card in his hand for a victory.

For Erdogan, this is a referendum not only on a presidential system but also his entire political career. Should it fail, he could be prosecuted by future unsympathetic governments for charges from corruption to supporting terrorism. As prospect theorists predict, individuals in the domain of losses are more risk-acceptant than those in the domain of gains. For all the confidence he projects, Erdogan likely knows he is facing a potential existential threat, and this referendum may be the riskiest gambit he has yet undertaken.

Melina Dunham is a student at Barnard College, Columbia University majoring in political science and will be attending the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po in the fall to pursue a masters degree in International Public Management.

Lisel Hintz is a visiting assistant professor of political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University and will be an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins Universitys School of Advanced International Studies beginning Fall 2017.

Original post:
Turkey's President Erdogan has gone to extremes to win Sunday's referendum. Here's why. - Washington Post