The Putinisation of Erdogan Middle East Eye At what point in the last 15 years of power did Recep Tayyip Erdogan decide that he alone held his country's destiny in his hands? When did he start comparing himself with Ataturk and pull up the drawbridge? Logic dictates that it was on that dramatic ... |
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The Putinisation of Erdogan - Middle East Eye
By Daren Butler | DIYARBAKIR, Turkey
DIYARBAKIR, Turkey In rallies from the Kurdish southeast to the northern Black Sea coast, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has seemed to attempt the impossible: win over both nationalists and Kurds with threats to make spring a "black winter" for Kurdish militants.
In campaign speeches ahead of an April 16 referendum on increasing his powers, Erdogan has signaled that army operations to crush Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants could intensify and spread into Syria and Iraq in the months ahead.
"With God's permission, it will be spring for Turkey and the Turkish people and a black winter for terrorists," Erdogan told supporters on Monday in Trabzon, a heavily nationalist town on the Black Sea coast.
Such fighting talk plays well with nationalists who abhor the idea of renewed peace talks with the PKK, which first took up arms more than three decades ago and is considered a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and European Union.
But it is a message he has also taken to the largely Kurdish southeast, courting those conservative Kurds who blame the militants for an upsurge in violence that the United Nations says has killed 2,000 people and displaced half a million since a ceasefire collapsed in July 2015.
"Could there be peace with those who walk around with weapons in their hands?" Erdogan said, addressing a crowd of several thousand waving Turkish flags amid tight security in the region's largest city Diyarbakir last Saturday.
"Nobody can divide our land. Those who try will find our armed forces, our police, our village guards up against them."
On the surface, life appears to have returned to normal in parts of Diyarbakir. But heavily armed security forces man checkpoints in some areas, and disillusionment and anger at both the state and the PKK run deep.
Bombed-out buildings and heaps of rubble are contained within the Roman-era walls of its ancient Sur district, devastated last year by tanks and artillery when security forces fought PKK militants who dug trenches and laid explosives.
"There is great pessimism across the region," said Yavuz Celik, 32, a local shopkeeper.
"There's always pressure. We're even scared of gathering in small groups ... During the peace process it was very different. We were even able to dance together in the street here."
POLITICIANS JAILED
Opinion polls suggest a tight race in the referendum, although the latest research this week suggests momentum is swinging in Erdogan's favor, putting support for the constitutional changes at around 53 percent.
Erdogan risked a nationalist backlash when he launched peace talks with the PKK in 2012, a move praised by European allies and seen as a step toward unlocking the economic potential of Turkey's southeast bordering Syria, Iran and Iraq.
There has been heavy fighting since the ceasefire broke down almost two years ago and Erdogan's pitch for support in the referendum has run into opposition from the pro-Kurdish opposition.
The pro-Kurdish HDP, the second largest opposition group in parliament, played a key role as a mediator in the peace process. But its leaders and thousands of its members, who oppose any greater powers for Erdogan in the referendum, have been jailed over the past year for alleged militant links.
HDP co-leader Selahattin Demirtas, who has called for a "no" vote in the referendum, issued a defiant statement from jail this week, calling on people to resist what he called the "tyranny" of a government creating "an atmosphere of fear".
"The closure of political channels unfortunately empowers those in the Kurdish movement who believe armed means are legitimate," said Diba Nigar Goksel, Turkey director for the International Crisis Group think tank.
"There is no durable military solution to Turkey's PKK conflict," she said. "Peace talks between Ankara and the PKK are the only way forward for a durable solution."
SYRIA AND IRAQ
Nationalists in Turkey have been incensed by the growing sway of Kurdish militia fighters in Syria and the presence of PKK leaders in northern Iraq, an issue which Erdogan suggested he would address in future military operations.
Turkey's conflict with the PKK has been fueled in recent years by events across the border in Syria, where the Kurdish YPG militia has enjoyed U.S. support in the fight against Islamic State, and in Iraq, where Ankara fears the militants are exploiting a security vacuum.
Erdogan described Turkey's "Euphrates Shield" operation, an incursion into northern Syrian to push back Islamic State and try to prevent YPG gains, as just a first phase and spoke of a "roadmap" for more operations both there and in Iraq.
"It is not an operation which only has a Syrian dimension. This matter has an Iraqi dimension too," he said in a television interview on Tuesday evening.
(Additional reporting by Humeyra Pamuk, Gulsen Solaker in Ankara; Editing by Nick Tattersall and Giles Elgood)
ALEXANDRIA, Egypt Families of victims of Sunday's bombing at Alexandria's Coptic cathedral gathered at the Monastery of Saint Mina under heavy security on Monday as Egypt's cabinet approved a three-month state of emergency ahead of a scheduled trip by Pope Francis.
LUCCA, Italy The United States will hold responsible anyone who commits crimes against humanity, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Monday, days after the U.S. military unexpectedly attacked Syria.
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Turkey's Erdogan courts nationalists, Kurds alike with hard ...
BRUSSELS A referendum in Turkey on granting President Tayyip Erdogan sweeping new powers is unlikely to ease strained relations with the EU and risks killing off Ankara's stalled bid for membership of the bloc, officials in Brussels say.
Even if voters do not give Erdogan the executive presidency he seeks on Sunday, Turkey's democracy and judiciary will suffer damage and he is likely to put even more pressure on critics, they say.
"There is no good outcome," said Marc Pierini, a former European Union ambassador to Turkey now at the Carnegie Europe think-tank.
"There is a very wide gap between European leaders and Erdogan and I don't see that easily repaired," he said, predicting a "polite silence" from the EU if he wins.
Turkey, a NATO member state that began talks to join the EU in 2005, has become a crucial partner for the bloc by taking in millions of refugees fleeing from the six-year-old war in Syria.
But a crackdown by Erdogan since a failed coup last July has been condemned in European capitals, and he has alienated the bloc further by accusing the German and Dutch governments of acting like Nazis after they banned referendum campaign rallies by Turkish officials.
One senior official told Reuters an Erdogan victory, which would pave the way for the president being eligible to serve up to two five-year terms, could bring stability allowing the EU to upgrade trade and business ties. "Otherwise it would be chaos," he said.
But several others disagreed, with a second senior official rejecting that notion as "false stability in the name of one-man rule".
RISKY OUTCOMES
With Erdogan supporters seeing a chance to cement his place as modern Turkey's most important leader while his opponents fear an even greater centralization of powers, polls suggest the vote - in which Turkish citizens abroad are also participating - will be close,
EU officials see all outcomes - whether a clear victory for Erdogan, a narrow loss or a contested result - as risky.
A win would embolden Erdogan to move ahead with proposed constitutional changes and possibly introduce the death penalty, they say, thereby ending Turkey's bid to join the EU.
Its status is already an issue following the post-coup crackdown.
Legal experts at the Council of Europe, a human rights body of which Ankara is a member, warned in March that creating a presidency with virtually unlimited powers was "a dangerous step backwards" for democracy.
Erdogan and his supporters dismiss such claims, saying there are sufficient checks and balances in the proposed system, such as the president having to call simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections if he dissolves parliament.
CYPRUS HOPE?
Other scenarios are also bleak, EU officials say.
A contested result would likely provoke a period of instability, possibly more violence.
A narrow loss would see Erdogan, whose position as Turkey's most popular politician is uncontested, remain in office. EU officials said he could bring the presidential and parliamentary elections, currently scheduled for 2019, forward both if he loses and if he wins.
"If he loses, we can expect a very harsh and brutal election campaign, we would probably see both sides resorting to violence," a third senior EU official said.
"He would crack down on the opposition even more (and) ... if the result is contested, it could destabilize the overall situation."
Following the failed coup, 36,000 people are in Turkey's prisons awaiting trial and more than 100,000 have been suspended or dismissed from work, according to the Council of Europe.
The ideal scenario from Brussels envisages a period of post-referendum calm that would allow the EU and Turkey to reset relations and modernize their customs union, possibly even relaxing visa rules for Turks traveling to the bloc.
A prerequisite for that is a breakthrough in Cyprus reunification talks, where Ankara is facing off against Nicosia and Athens, the third official said.
"There is no entirely good result of this for us in any case. But some scenarios would be worse than others," he said, anticipating Erdogan will move to review ties with the EU whatever happens.
(Additional reporting by Alastair Macdonald; editing by John Stonestreet)
ALEXANDRIA, Egypt Families of victims of Sunday's bombing at Alexandria's Coptic cathedral gathered at the Monastery of Saint Mina under heavy security on Monday as Egypt's cabinet approved a three-month state of emergency ahead of a scheduled trip by Pope Francis.
LUCCA, Italy The United States will hold responsible anyone who commits crimes against humanity, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Monday, days after the U.S. military unexpectedly attacked Syria.
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Glum EU braces for Turkey vote on Erdogan's powers - Reuters
The streets of Kadiky, one of Istanbuls most liberal districts, echo with the laughter of young couples, the clink of beer glasses, and a one-word warning: dictatorship.
I dont want to live in a dictatorship. I dont want Sharia law. I dont want to have to wear the head scarf. I dont want my country to become like Iran or Iraq, said Tuana Okay, an 18-year-old student with a purple streak dyed in her hair.
Like many of her fellow Turks, Ms Okay is frightened about the referendum approaching on April 16, when President Recep Tayyip Erdoan is asking his citizens to approve sweeping constitutional changes that would vastly increase his own power.
A disparate coalition of opponents - from Marxist students to renegade nationalists, Kurdish activists to Turkeys once-dominant Republican People's Party (CHP) - are lining up to campaign against the president and in favour of a No vote....
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Erdogan's opposition face intimidation and harassment as they try to stop him in Turkish referendum - Telegraph.co.uk
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan threatened to make Europe pay for oppressing and humiliating Turks, in rhetoric aimed at boosting the Yes camp ahead of Sundays referendum on enhancing his powers.
In a speech in the Aegean city of Izmir, Erdoan described Europe as a sick man, using the jibe that nineteenth century European politicians used to describe the decaying Ottoman Empire.
He once again threatened after the 16 April referendum to sign into law the reinstatement of the death penalty if it was passed by parliament a move that would automatically end the European Union membership bid.
Europe will pay for what they have done. God willing, the question of the European Union will again be on the table after 16 April, said Erdoan.
Turkey will review all political and administrative ties with the European Union after an April referendum, including a deal to curb illegal migration, but will maintain economic relations with the bloc, President Recep Tayyip Erdoan said yesterday (23 March).
He said that Turks living in Europe were oppressed and humiliated: God willing, our people will bring them (Europe) to account, he said.
They said a century ago that we were the sick man. Now they are the sick man. Europe is collapsing, he added, claiming the European economy weakened every year.
The EU is facing the gravest crisis in its six-decade history after last years British vote to leave the bloc, while populist and Eurosceptic movements have gained ground across the continent.
Erdoan reaffirmed that if a bill on restoring the death penalty abolished in 2004 as part of the Turkish EU bid was brought to him he would sign it without hesitation.
The president has raised hackles in Europe over recent weeks by claiming some EU states were behaving like the Nazis by preventing his ministers from holding pre-election rallies.
While the No campaign has struggled to make its voice heard as the Yes campaign dominates the airwaves, analysts believe the outcome is still too close to call as the race enters the last week of campaigning.
Sunday marked the last day of expatriate voting in the referendum, which is expected to be crucial to the outcome with some three million expatriate voters registered, almost half of them in Germany.
The Yes campaign is also backed by the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which on Sunday held a giant rally led by its leader Devlet Bahceli in Istanbul at precisely the same shoreside venue used by Erdoan for a giant meeting the day earlier.
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Erdogan: Europe is collapsing, we will bring it to account - EurActiv