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Erdogan's victory 'threatens Iran's interests'

The progressiveHam Mihandaily, in a series of interviews with analysts and foreign policy experts, raised the alarm over the potential negative consequences forIran of the re-election of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Under the headline "Erdogan's gruesome dream", the daily examinedTurkey'sattempts to increase its influence in the region as well as its policies in controlling the water resources from the Tigris and Euphrates, two major rivers in the Middle East.

Analysts who talked with the daily argued that Erdogan would continue his regional policies to create a "New Ottoman Empire" and connect the Turkic countries, such as Azerbaijan, by land.

Ali Ziaei, an international transport expert, told the daily that linking Turkey to Azerbaijan through Armenia's southern province of Syunik would be one of Erdogan's main objectives in his new term in office.

"Turkey has been insisting on establishing the Zangezur corridor. This will happen through annexing Armenia's Syunik province to Azerbaijan, which would result in disconnecting Iran from its neighbouring northern countries," Ziaei said.

Ahmad Kazemzadeh, a hydro politics expert, stressed that Erdogan used the dams built in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) to exert pressure on Iran, Iraq and Syria by cutting off these countries' water shares.

"So far, Turkey has not adhered to international laws about shared water resources and has only focused on its water needs. With Erdogan's victory, hopes of joining the European Union have faded for Turkey so that it will follow hydro politics without considering international laws," Kazemzadeh explained.

A branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Court in the city of Isfahan sentenced a prominent political activist, Heshmatollah Tabarzadi, to 45 years and six months in prison.

Tabarzadi was arrested along with his two sons in the city of Golpayegan a few days after the death of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahasa Amini in morality police custody. He was one of the activists who supported the protestors.

Iran: Detainees complain of harassment and humiliation during strip-searches

Amini's death sparked nationwide demonstrations in Iran, during which more than 500 were killed, and about 22,000 protestors and political activists were arrested.

Among the dissidents arrested since last September, Tabarzadi has received one of the longest sentences, and since his arrest, he has been kept in pre-trial detention.

Tabarzadi's daughtersaidthat he was convicted of charges such as "spreading corruption on earth", "propaganda against the establishment", "insulting" Iran's first and current supreme leaders, "collaborating with the enemy governments by interviewing with opposition media", and "encouraging the public to revolt".

The court verdict was appealable, but Tabarzadi said he would not request an appeal because he did not recognise the court.

Since 1994, this former student activist and journalist has been arrested several times. In 2000, he was sentenced to a nine-year prison, and for ten years he was deprived of all social services. In 2010 he received another nine-year sentence and 74 lashes for his activism.

TheUSagreed to release Iran's $23.7bn frozen assets in South Korea,Iraqand the International Monetary Fund (IMF), despite the sanctions on international bank transfers to Iran, the ISNA news agency reported.

On Tuesday,ISNAwrote that during a two-visit to Tehran, Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said mediated the release of the foreign prisoners in Iran and Tehran's access to its money blocked in other countries.

Some local media suggested an agreement was made after Tehran freed two dual Iranian-Austrian nationals, Masoud Mosaheb and Kamran Ghaderi, and a Danish citizen, Thomas Kjems, on 2 June.

Omani novel on water wins top Arabic fiction prize

According to ISNA, Iran will have access to $7bn in South Korea and $10bn in Iraq. The report added that following a meeting between Mohammad Reza Farzin, Iran's central bank director, and the IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, the international organisation would permit Iran to access $6.7bn in funds.

However, the report did not clarify if the money would be transferred to Iran or if officials in Tehran would only be allowed to import food and essential goods in return for the frozen assets.

On 1 June, Iran's Oil Minister Javad Owjitoldreporters that Iraq only gives food and essential goods for the gas that it imports from Iran.

Despite the US sanctions, Iraq is one of the leading customers of Iran's gas, and in the previous Iranian year, which ended on 21 March, it imported over $3.8bn gas from Iran.

Officials in Tehran have not revealed the exact amount of Iraq's debt due to the gas imports, but some put it at about $17bn.

*Iranian press review is a digest of news reports not independently verified as accurate by Middle East Eye.

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Iranian press review: Analysts warn of impact of Erdogan's re-election for Iran - Middle East Eye

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'We will build Century of Trkiye together': President Erdogan - Anadolu Agency

20 May 2023

Image source, Getty Images

In Turkey's run-off election, the votes of women - representing 50.6% of the electorate - will be key

When Turkish voters return to the polls in a week's time to pick a president, their choice will make waves across the globe. Turkey's future could look very different depending on who wins - and the world is watching.

Turkey's current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been in power for two decades. He has forged bonds with both East and West, but his increasingly authoritarian rule has led to friction with some allies.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition challenger, has promised to restore Turkey's democracy and improve human rights. Some Turks, though, question whether he has the presence on the world stage and commitment to security that Mr Erdogan has made his trademark.

Polls before the first round of the election on 14 May suggested the vote would be finely balanced between the two men. But when the ballots were counted, Mr Erdogan defied predictions, with a lead that now looks difficult for his opponent to overturn.

"Turkey is a country that I used to describe as one of our swing states," explains Baroness Ashton, the EU's former foreign policy chief.

"What happens in Turkey in terms of its democracy and in terms of its place in the region has a huge impact on Europe, on Asia, and of course on all of the global issues that we're all grappling with. So it is really important."

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Turkey has cemented its position as a valuable diplomatic broker. It facilitated some early talks between the warring nations, but made a real breakthrough only when it negotiated the crucial grain deal that has kept Ukrainian exports flowing through the heavily-mined Black Sea.

President Erdogan also prides himself on the lines of communication he keeps open with everyone from the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden to Presidents Putin of Russia and Xi of China.

Image source, Getty Images

President Erdogan has ties with a range of political leaders, from US President Joe Biden (right) to China's President Xi

"Turkey has always had this ambition to be part of the West," says Evren Balta, a professor in international relations at Istanbul's Ozyegin University.

"This has not changed in the two decades of [Mr Erdogan's AK Party] rule," Prof Balta, continues. "But Turkey's international alliances have diversified. It has pursued what we call 'strategic autonomy', the idea that countries can be in alliances or in alignments with more than one country or security umbrella."

Turkey's multiple relationships and ability to juggle them has proved valuable. But the picture is not entirely rosy.

Take the Nato military alliance for instance, where Turkish forces make up the second-biggest army. Its members readily agreed that bringing in Finland and Sweden would strengthen security for the whole bloc.

Turkey was the lone voice of dissent, slowing down Finnish membership and continuing to block Sweden's. It said it wouldn't support Swedish membership until it extradited dozens of members of the PKK, a Kurdish rebel group that has waged an armed struggle against Turkey since 1984.

Selin Nasi, the London representative of the Ankara Policy Center, thinks a change of president could be helpful for relations with Nato.

Mr Kilicdaroglu has promised to solve the so-called S400 issue - Turkey's use of a Russian missile defence system that the US deemed incompatible with its F-35 fighter jet programme. Turkey's access to F-35s was removed in 2019, but the opposition has promised to take steps to restore it.

Image source, Getty Images

Kemal Kilicdaroglu (centre, with flowers) has pledged to restore democracy in Turkey and restart efforts to join the EU

"Under the current circumstances, Turkey is an ally, but its loyalty and commitment to Nato is questioned," says Nasi. "Remember the G20 summit in Bali. We came to the brink of a nuclear war.

"An emergency meeting was held there and Turkey was not invited. This displayed the ambiguous position of Turkey within Nato. In order to overcome these suspicions and judgments, I think we need to solve the S400 issue, the sooner the better."

And then there is the EU. Turkey was officially recognised as a candidate for membership in 1999. But the process stalled in 2016, with Brussels criticising the Turkish government's record on human rights and democratic freedoms.

Mr Kilicdaroglu and the opposition said they would make a renewed bid to get things moving again. But is that even a feasible aim?

Ilnur Cevik, the chief advisor to President Erdogan, does not think so. He says the opposition leader is "hallucinating".

"The EU are always putting stumbling blocks in our way to becoming a full member. [Mr Kilicdaroglu] says after he comes to power that in three months he would create the environment that the European Union would allow Turks visa-free movement, which is a load of baloney."

Faik Tunay is poetic in his reply to that. He is the deputy chair of the Democrat Party, one of the members of Mr Kilicdaroglu's opposition alliance.

"I would define the relationship between the EU and Turkey as an impossible love story," he says.

"Sure, Turkey has made a lot of mistakes. It didn't complete the homework which was given by the EU: the freedom, the democracy, the human rights or any other issues. But if Turkey can catch EU standards 100% in all aspects, then it's not important to be a member of the EU, or any other thing."

Image source, Getty Images

Mr Erdogan has reshaped his country more than any leader since its modern-day founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk

In the original campaign, both sides promised to return as many Syrian refugees home as possible within weeks of the presidential vote. But as the run-off gets closer, that has crystallised into a key topic of discussion, with each man vying to be the most hard-line on the topic.

It's a worrying moment for Syrians, who fear they're about to be returned to a country that still isn't safe for many. That could create a headache for the wider world, too, who would have to accommodate them if Turkey puts a stop to its support.

Turkey's chequered history on rights and freedoms continues to complicate the country's relationship with the West. If the opposition wins, it insists it would make things better, and the pledge to return to democracy has been one of its key campaign messages.

"If under a different government we see any improvement on the democratic rights and freedom of expression, it would improve Turkey's image in the international arena," says the Ankara Policy Center's Selin Nasi. "An Erdogan victory would also mean that political prisoners will remain in jail."

Turkey's voters are facing a stark choice. No doubt domestic issues like the struggling economy are at the forefront of most minds as ballots are being cast. Turkey's place in the world may feel like a less important consideration to some, but the direction its next leader takes will define the future stability and success of the country for decades.

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Turkey election: Why the world is watching the presidential race - BBC

Video Duration 24 minutes 25 seconds 24:25

President Erdogans dominating media presence helps him take Turkeystightly fought election to a run-off. Plus, is the media making the Sino-America divide worse?

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With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the verge of re-election in the second round next week, whats next for what is left of Turkish journalism?

Contributors: Mustafa Akyol Senior Fellow, Cato InstituteRavza Kavakci Kan AK Party Member of ParliamentSeren Selvin Korkmaz Co-founder, IstanPol Institute & Lecturer, Stockholm UniversityGney Yildiz Researcher & Analyst

Another death in Guatemala. Producer Flo Phillips reports on elPeriodico, the investigative magazine forced to close after coming into conflict with the powers that be.

Reflecting tensions or creating them? Producer Meenakshi Ravi looks at the medias role in the geopolitical staredown between two of the worlds great economic and military powers China and the United States.

Contributors: Kaiser Kuo Host, Sinica PodcastLizzi Lee Journalist, Wall Street TVEinar Tangen Senior Fellow, Taihe Institute & Founder, Asia Narratives

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Published On 20 May 202320 May 2023

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Erdogans media domination and the vote in Turkey - Al Jazeera English

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) Turkey's presidential election will be decided in a runoff, election officials said Monday, after incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan pulled ahead of his chief challenger, but fell short of an outright victory that would extend his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade.

The May 28 second-round vote will determine whether the strategically located NATO country remains under the president's firm grip or can embark on a more democratic course promised by his main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

READ MORE: Runoff in Turkey's election appears more likely after dip in voter support for Erdogan

While Erdogan has governed for 20 years, opinion polls had suggested that run could be coming to an end and that a cost-of-living crisis and criticism over the government's response to a devastating February earthquake might redraw the electoral map.

Instead, Erdogan's retreat was still less marked than predicted and with his alliance retaining its hold on the parliament, he is now in a good position to win in the second round.

The uncertainty drove the main Turkish stock exchange BIST-100 more than 6% lower at the open Monday, prompting a temporary halt in trading. But shares recovered after trading resumed, and the index was 2.5% lower in the afternoon compared to the market close Friday.

Western nations and foreign investors were particularly interested in the outcome because of Erdogan's unorthodox leadership of the economy and often mercurial but successful efforts to put Turkey at the center of many major diplomatic negotiations. At a crossroads between East and West, with a coast along the Black Sea and borders with Iran, Iraq and Syria, Turkey has been a key player on issues including the war in Syria, migration flows to Europe, exports of Ukraine's grain, and NATO's expansion.

Preliminary results showed Erdogan won 49.5% of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu grabbed 44.9%, and the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2%, according to Ahmet Yener, the head of Supreme Electoral Board.

The remaining uncounted votes were not enough to tip Erdogan into outright victory, even if they all broke for him, Yener said. In the last presidential election in 2018, Erdogan won in the first round, with more than 52% of the vote.

Even as it became clear a runoff was likely, Erdogan, who has governed Turkey as either prime minister or president since 2003, painted Sunday's vote as a victory both for himself and the country.

"That the election results have not been finalized doesn't change the fact that the nation has chosen us," Erdogan, 69, told supporters in the early hours of Monday.

He said he would respect the nation's decision.

Kilicdaroglu sounded hopeful, tweeting around the time the runoff was announced: "Don't lose hope. We will get up and win this election together."

Kilicdaroglu, 74, and his party have lost all previous presidential and parliamentary elections since he took leadership in 2010 but increased their votes this time.

Right-wing candidate Ogan has not said whom he would endorse if the elections go to a second round. He is believed to have received support from nationalist electors wanting change after two decades under Erdogan but unconvinced by the Kilicdaroglu-led six party alliance's ability to govern.

The election results showed that the alliance led by Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party looked like it would keep its majority in the 600-seat parliament, although the assembly has lost much of its power after a referendum that gave the presidency additional legislative powers narrowly passed in 2017.

Erdogan's AKP and its allies secured 321 seats in the National Assembly, while the opposition won 213 and the 66 remaining went to a pro-Kurdish alliance, according to preliminary results.

Howard Eissenstat, an associate professor of Middle East history and politics at St. Lawrence University in New York, said those results would likely give Erdogan an advantage in an eventual runoff because voters would not want a "divided government."

As in previous years, Erdogan led a highly divisive campaign. He portrayed Kilicdaroglu, who had received the backing of the country's pro-Kurdish party, of colluding with "terrorists" and of supporting what he called "deviant" LGBTQ rights. In a bid to woo voters hit hard by inflation, he increased wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey's homegrown defense industry and infrastructure projects.

Kilicdaroglu, for his part, campaigned on promises to reverse crackdowns on free speech and other forms of democratic backsliding, as well as to repair an economy battered by high inflation and currency devaluation.

But as the results came in, it appeared those elements didn't shake up the electorate as expected: Turkey's conservative heartland overwhelmingly voted for the ruling party, with Kilicdaroglu's main opposition winning most of the coastal provinces in the west and south. The pro-Kurdish Green Left Party, YSP, won the predominantly Kurdish provinces in the southeast.

Results reported by the state-run Anadolu Agency showed Erdogan's party dominating in the earthquake-hit region, winning 10 out of 11 provinces in an area that has traditionally supported the president. That was despite criticism of a slow response by his government to the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people.

Nearly 89% of eligible voters in Turkey cast a ballot and over half of overseas voters went to the ballot box. Voter turnout in Turkey is traditionally strong, despite the government suppressing freedom of expression and assembly over the years and especially since a 2016 coup attempt.

Erdogan blamed the failed coup on followers of a former ally, cleric Fethullah Gulen, and initiated a large-scale crackdown on civil servants with alleged links to Gulen and on pro-Kurdish politicians.

Critics maintain the president's heavy-handed style is responsible for a painful cost-of-living crisis. The latest official statistics put inflation at about 44%, down from a high of around 86%. The price of vegetables became a campaign issue for the opposition, which used an onion as a symbol.

Bilginsoy reported from Istanbul. Associated Press writer Cinar Kiper contributed from Bodrum, Turkey.

Read more:
Turkey presidential election heads to runoff as incumbent Erdogan surges - PBS NewsHour