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The recent local elections in Turkey did not go to plan for President Erdogan.

The voters sent a clear message to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) party and the strongman president, when they voted in unprecedented numbers for the oppositionRepublican People's Party (CHP).

The CHP took control of Turkey's biggest cities and also managed to make significant headway into provinces that had been traditional AKP territory.

Additionally, the AKP also lost out to the NewWelfare Party (YRP), and Islamist party, who collected former AKP voters, who were angered by Erdogan's Gaza policy.

The recent vote raises some big questions about the future of Turkey and Erdogan.

This week on The New Arab Voice, we look at the recent Turkish elections. Why did the AKP and Erdogan do so badly? How big was the CHP victory? Has the path been set forEkremmamolu to rise to the presidency? Can and will Erdogan run again? Will Erdogan start another crackdown? And what is the state of Turkish democracy?

Joining us this week, we speak withGnl Tol (@gonultol),the founding director of the Middle East Institutes (@MiddleEastInst) Turkey programmeand a senior fellow with the Black Sea Program. Gnl's new book,Erdogan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria, is out now.

Also, Soner Cagaptay (@SonerCagaptay), the Beyer Family Senior Fellow and director of theTurkish Research Programat The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (@WashInstitute), and the author of A Sultan in Autumn.

his podcast is written and produced by Hugo Goodridge (@hugogoodridge).

Theme music by Omar al-Fil.

To get in touch with the producers, follow then tweet us at@TNAPodcastsor emailpodcast@newarab.com

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A Turkey of an Election for Erdogan: AKP losses, CHP wins, and mamolu's rising star - The New Arab

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Turkey's Erdogan to hold White House talks with Biden in May - The Central Virginian

Local municipality election posters for CHP and AKP representative candidates, Istanbul, March 16, 2024. JOHN WREFORD / SOPA IMAGES VIA REUTERS

Alemdag Caddesi, in mraniye, located on Istanbul's Asian side, perfectly captures the essence of a typical shopping street with its vibrant stalls, recognizable sounds, and dynamic crowds, mirroring any other pedestrian zone. Similarly, political party tents of varying sizes have popped up, each bearing their logos and echoing their campaign music for the March 31 municipal elections.

Giant posters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with local candidates from the ruling Islamo-Conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) stand alongside those of the outgoing mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, the leader of the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP). The main opposition party is also fielding its own candidates in the city's various districts.

Yet the mood is heavy. A weariness can be seen in people's eyes. The writer and journalist Bekir Agirdir called it "voter fatigue," caused by an accumulation of ballots on top of the worries and difficulties of the day. Since 2011, Turks have voted almost every year without anything really changing. The rising cost of living has been reducing the amount of food on people's plates and jeopardizing the well-being of households. "The gap between the real problems of everyday life and the official agenda is widening by the day," added this polling specialist, as if "the government was pushing society to depoliticize itself."

Then there's the growing authoritarianism among those in power. On March 7, a passer-by claiming to be close to the CHP was arrested in the middle of the street in the suburb of Sirinevler, on the European bank, after criticizing the president in an interview with a YouTuber. Taken in by the civilian police, he was charged with "inciting hatred." In Kasimpasa, Erdogan's birthplace, AKP militants broke into the CHP campaign headquarters. On March 17, during a rally by the head of state in Konya, several dozen people were arrested for criticizing the government's education policy.

Accordingly, pedestrians rarely, if ever, spill their guts to foreign journalists. They barely whisper their first names, and then again, only after insisting. "Opponents seem to have accepted that the government coalition will maintain its domination until the next general and presidential elections [in 2028]," added Agirdir. "Voters in the ruling bloc, on the other hand, are reluctant to show enthusiasm because of the country's economic situation."

In Istanbul, Imamoglu campaigns around the clock. In June 2019, he surprised observers by handily winning a vote organized twice after the first vote in March was canceled at the AKP's request. The ruling party had persuaded the High Electoral Commission to cancel it, citing fraud. This proved to be a mistake. From 13,500 votes, the CHP candidate won with a lead of more than 800,000 in the second vote, inflicting a historic setback on the president and his party, then the absolute master of the city for 25 years.

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Istanbul mayor election: The opposition and Erdogan's party are locked in a tight race - Le Monde

Millions of voters in Turkey will head to the polls on March 31 to elect mayors in local elections. These elections are seen as crucial both for the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoan, which has been in power since 2002, and the opposition.

The last time Turkey held local elections, in March 2019, Erdoans ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost key cities such as Istanbul and Ankara. It will be looking to win them back. At the same time, retaining key cities would help revive Turkeys opposition after it failed to defeat Erdoan in the 2023 national and presidential elections.

How will the elections pan out on March 31? Many things have happened since the last local elections, not least the COVID pandemic and the devastating earthquakes that rocked the country in 2023. But one thing is clearly different this time. While the elections in 2019 happened before the holy month of Ramadan, the 2024 elections will happen at the height of Ramadan.

Research from 2022 that I co-authored with my colleague, Diego Gambetta, suggests that Ramadan can drive up the intensity of religious beliefs, bolster the success of religious organisations, and even influence the results of elections.

Erdoans AKP has a strong base of support among people from the conservative tradition of Turkey. This could give the party an extra edge. However, the role Ramadan might play in the elections is intricate.

Read more: How Erdogan held onto power in Turkey, and what this means for the country's future

Ramadan is the holiest month of the Islamic year. It is a month where religious activities as well as charity and community services increase. Muslims abstain from drinking, eating, smoking and sexual intimacy from sunrise to sunset for a whole month.

Ramadan fasting is a physically and mentally demanding religious practice. Nevertheless, a very large majority of Muslims report to be adhering to the full month of fasting.

A particular feature of Ramadan is that its start date is based on the lunar calendar. The lunar year is shorter than the solar year. Therefore, the whole month of Ramadan shifts back in the solar year by about 11 days each year. Because fasting happens between sunrise and sunset, this means that how long people must fast in a Ramadan day varies over the years.

How much day length changes over the years also varies by latitude. Take, for instance, London. When Ramadan falls in December (which happened during the late 1990s), a Muslim Londoner fasts for slightly less than eight hours. However, when Ramadan falls in June (which happened in 2015), the fasting duration is nearly 17 hours, a difference of nine hours.

In Antakya, the southernmost city in Turkey, the same difference between a winter and summer Ramadan day length is only about five hours (just below ten hours in winter and just above 14 hours in summer).

The changing start date of Ramadan gives researchers a source of variation in the costliness of religious practice. This variation, in turn, helps researchers tackle the following longstanding social scientific puzzle.

As the cost of an activity increases (in this case, the physical and mental demands of fasting), people should, in theory, not be willing to spend as many resources on it, assuming all else remains equal. Economists call this the law of demand. In the religious domain, however, something different seems to happen.

Research, including my own, shows that the more effort someone exerts in religious practice, the more religious they get, and subsequently the more successful religious organisations that require those practices become.

The mechanisms that give rise to this effect seem to involve adaptive preferences. This is where gradually increasing effort in a certain task raises a persons commitment to the task. Indeed, the change in fasting duration over the years happens only gradually rather than abruptly.

If religiosity increases and religious organisations become more successful during and after Ramadans with long fasting days, we can, in principle, detect the effects of Ramadan on the electoral cycle. The longer people are fasting during Ramadan, the more votes Islamic political parties should get.

We tested this prediction in our research using data from Turkey, focusing on the parliamentary elections from 1973 to 2018. We found that a half-hour rise in the duration of Ramadan fasting increases the vote share of Islamist political parties by 11%. The sooner the election is after Ramadan, the stronger the effect of fasting duration on Islamic votes.

It seems that gradually exerting higher religious effort further intensifies religious beliefs and participation, which in turn drives up votes for political parties with religious connotations.

All else equal, which admittedly is never the case, the fact that Turkeys local elections are taking place during Ramadan should help Islamist political parties gain ground, including Erdoans AKP.

However, Ramadan day length in the northern hemisphere peaked in 2019 and has been decreasing since. This could mean that Islamic parties will face a steeper uphill struggle to keep their votes in the longer term. This is particularly true at northern latitudes (both within Turkey and beyond) where the decline in Ramadan day length is stronger.

It is difficult to tell which of these two opposing effects of Ramadan will dominate on March 31. But polls show that the race between AKP and the opposition is very close in many places.

In such close elections small factors could tip the balance. Time will soon tell who Ramadan will be most generous towards.

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Erdoan's party seeks advantage as Turkey's local elections coincide with Ramadan - The Conversation Indonesia

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STORY: Turkey will hold local elections on Sunday (March 31) - with President Tayyip Erdogans AK Party (AKP) aiming to reclaim major cities lost in 2019.But this vote marks a major test for the president and all eyes are on Istanbul.Analysts see the citys vote as a nationwide gauge of Erdogan's support and the opposition's durability. Either reinforce Erdogan's control after two decades running Turkey, or signal change in the country's deeply divided political landscape.In Istanbul, AKPs Murat Kurum is challenging the opposition CHPs biggest hope for the future, Ekrem Imamoglu. A tight race between the two candidates is expected - and Erdogan has responded to the potential threat. "Some people came up who are holding us back not to win but just to make us lose. You know who they are, right? What are you doing holding us back? Okay, then who is going to win when we lose? Of course the single-party fascist CHP and the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, which has become its official partner."Istanbul is home to more than 16 million people and drives more than a quarter of the nation's GDPControlling big cities and their budgets can give parties say over financing, contracts and job creation, boosting their popularity on the national stage. In the last local vote in 2019, CHP shocked Erdogan by winning Istanbul and the countrys capital AnkaraEnding more than two decades of rule by Erdogans party and its Islamist predecessors.Should Imamoglu win a second mayoral term, analysts say he would very likely run in the next presidential vote.Many of Turkey's Kurds are set to put aside party loyalty and back him on Sunday, which pollsters say could swing the results. Pro-Kurdish DEM party voters were pivotal to Imamoglu's mayoral win in 2019And now, they are split on how best to advance the cause of minority Kurdish rights. If Erdogans party regains Istanbul, analysts, like Murat Yetkin, say it would bolster his pursuit of a new constitution that could potentially extend his rule beyond 2028."In 2019, when Erdogan and AK Party lost Istanbul, it was a big blow and it was a scratch on Erdogan's reputation that up until then he was unbeatable, invincible. So, this is going to be a test for him now, whether he will succeed to get Istanbul back and if he does so, that means that he will be able to extend, endorse his power."

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Turkey poised for local elections as Erdogan's party eyes recapturing Istanbul - Yahoo News UK