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As after almost every failure, the opposition parties in Turkiye have already started to blame each other for the defeat they suffered during last months general elections. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of a coalition of opposition parties, has said it is my duty to lead the ship to a safe harbor, but he did not say why he could not do this in the last elections. In fact, he has lost all 10 elections that he has participated in. Political analysts underline that, in a country where democracy is properly digested, political leaders should step aside if they fail in one or two successive elections. Despite this and despite pressure coming from his partys hierarchy, Kilicdaroglu seems to be intent on continuing his fight. In the first round of the presidential election on May 14, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the leading candidate, but by less than half a percent of the votes. In the second round, Erdogan, of the ruling Justice and Development Party, obtained 52.14 percent of the votes versus opposition leader Kilicdaroglus 47.86. For now, there are three candidates for the chairmanship of the main opposition party, the Republican Peoples Party, which is known as the CHP. One is Kilicdaroglu. The second is Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, who won this position by digging the ground with his fingers. The third is Ozgur Ozel, a young and ambitious member of the party. He has publicly announced that he would not avoid taking on responsibility, adding that he would not hold back from sacrifice either, which means that he will run for the presidency only if Kilicdaroglu supports him. There is a feeling in Turkiyes opposition party circles that a sea change has become necessary. So far, only Imamoglu has come up with a structured report and underlined the specific areas where the coalition of opposition parties failed. This report highlighted many failures. Firstly, it stated that the main opposition CHP and its allies could not turn the last election into a referendum for or against Erdogan. Secondly, Erdogan transformed the elections into a choice of whether the electorate should vote for stability or chaos and the opposition parties watched this from a distance as bystanders. Thirdly, the campaign became an effort to make Kilicdaroglu a candidate for the presidential post, rather than winning the elections. Finally, the opposition parties could not explain to the electorate that continuing with Erdogan would mean the further impoverishment of the Turkish people. On Wednesday last week, Kilicdaroglu and Imamoglu held a two-hour meeting on the outskirts of Ankara. People close to Imamoglu emphasized that radical changes are necessary in the party, while Kilicdaroglu thought that the election of a new chairman had to be postponed until after the local elections that will be held next year. This means Kilicdaroglu is not prepared to leave the leadership of the party until after then at least. The other participants commented that a positive atmosphere dominated the meeting.

Despite pressure coming from his partys hierarchy, Kilicdaroglu seems to be intent on continuing his fight.

Yasar Yakis

There are two opportunities that the willing members of the CHP would like to use to take command of the party. One of them is the partys general congress. The regular biennial general congress of the CHP was due to be held last year, but it was postponed to this year. The preparatory meetings have to be held at the village or neighborhood level, to be followed by the district and then provincial levels. The second is the local elections. This requires at least three months to organize. The municipal elections are expected to be held on March 31, 2024, if there is no decision made to change the date. Therefore, the parties will have to hold their intra-party elections months before so that the new administrations can launch their campaigns. Opinions are divided as to whether the general congress of the CHP should be held before or after the local elections. If it is held beforehand, Kilicdaroglu may not be reelected, meaning his dream to lead the ship to a safe harbor may not materialize. Kilicdaroglu is on the record as saying that he is not opposed to the candidacy of any member of the party, but that the wrong choice should not allow the CHP to lose a major metropolis like Istanbul. The most important thing is to avoid a fight within the party, because such a division may cause a split. Ozel, the chairman of the CHPs parliamentary group, clarified his position by emphasizing that he would definitely support any candidate who is designated by Kilicdaroglu. Kilicdaroglu would not want to take a decision that might harm the political party he has been leading for 13 years. However, human beings have their choices. In a democratic environment, people also make mistakes. Therefore, the right way will again be found by intensifying the dialogue. Another major factor that has to be taken into account is the case of Meral Akseners IYI Parti. In last months parliamentary elections, this party obtained 9.69 percent of the votes and 44 seats in the parliament. The party made a mistake by withdrawing for three days from the six-party opposition coalition. This unwise move caused unease within the party and must have produced a substantive loss of support among the electorate. Erdogan has repeatedly said that, in Turkish elections, the one who gets Istanbul will also get Turkiye. We may presume that he will do everything he can to ensure he does not lose Istanbul in next years local elections.

Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkiye and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view

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Turkish opposition eyes local elections after loss to Erdogan - Arab News

Turkeys newly reelected president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has on a visit to northern Cyprus demanded the recognition of the breakaway state as a condition for negotiations on the future of the island. In this case, he is barking up the wrong tree.

Since 1964, when UN peacekeeping forces (UNFICYP) were deployed on the island to prevent fighting between the two population groups the Greek and Turkish Cypriots this has developed into one of the worlds longest standing conflicts.

In 1974 the conflict escalated when Turkish troops occupied the northern third of the island in accordance with the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee between Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom, which allowed Turkey to intervene to prevent the union of Cyprus with any other state.

In July, the Cypriot president Archbishop Makarios was overthrown in a coup by a former EOKA gunman, Nicos Sampson, who, backed by the military junta in Athens, intended to declare enosis (union) with Greece. However, Turkeys occupation led to partition and finally, in 1983, the unilateral declaration of the TRNC (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus), which is only recognized by Turkey.

From 1975, reunification talks began under the aegis of the UN with the declared aim of establishing a bizonal, bicommunal federation. A notable attempt in 2004, based on the Annan Plan for reunification, was accepted by 65% of Turkish Cypriots, but rejected by 76% of the Greek Cypriots. A week later, the rump state, designated as the Republic of Cyprus, found a safe harbor in the European Union.

The latest attempt, in what UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres has called a horizon of endless process without result, foundered at Crans-Montana in Switzerland in 2017. Guterres was undoubtedly correct in his belief that a historic opportunity had been missed, as Ersin Tatar was elected Turkish Cypriot leader instead of the pro-federal Mustaf Akinci in October 2020.

Tatar, a hardliner and backed by Ankara, goes in for a two-state solution. Failing this, annexation is a third option, which is not unlikely, given that northern Cyprus is de facto Turkeys 82nd province.

However, the game changer was the discovery of vast gas and oil reserves in the Levant Basin in 2010. Cyprus had already delimited its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and concluded agreements with Egypt, Lebanon and Israel. Turkey, which is not a signatory to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), insists that the extent of its continental shelf and shoreline overrides this principle.

The fact that Cyprus has awarded concessions to foreign companies for hydrocarbon exploration in its EEZ has led to continual conflict with Turkey, not least because it clashes with Turkeys Blue Homeland maritime doctrine.

One response has been the trilateral cooperation between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, which has lasted a decade and includes a military dimension.

On another level, Egypt, whose Zohr gas field is the largest in the Mediterranean, in 2019 founded the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, which includes Israel, Cyprus, Greece, France, Italy, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, but not Turkey. The US and the EU are observers.

ACCORDING TO former US ambassador to Turkey, Eric Edelman, Erdogan believes he can threaten his way in. On the other hand, also in 2019, Congress passed the Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act in support of Greece as a valuable NATO member, Israel as a steadfast ally and Cyprus as a key strategic partner.

In addition, in October 2021 the US amended its MDCA (Mutual Defense and Cooperation Agreement) with Greece to include the port of Alexandroupolis as a key strategic hub.

In 2014, when Turkish professor Ahmet Davutoglu, the architect of Turkeys neo-Ottoman foreign policy, was appointed prime minister, he included in his manifesto a vision of Turkey as an energy corridor.

In 2009, the European Commission agreed on the construction of a Southern Gas Corridor to diversify its energy supply by bringing gas resources from the Caspian Sea to European markets. Commissioned at the end of 2020, it comprises the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) from the Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan, the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) through Turkey and Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to Italy.

Turkey has tried to lure Israel to commit to a pipeline from Israels Leviathan field to Ceyhan in southern Turkey, but so far Israel has resisted this siren call. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to arrange a meeting with Erdogan, but Erdogan will only meet with him if he delivers news on gas cooperation.

Turkey is also dependent on Russian gas through the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines, and Russia has proposed to Turkey that it acts as an energy hub for Russian gas to Europe after the Nord Stream blasts.

In January 2022 a non-paper from the US State Department put the kibosh on Greece, Cyprus and Israels plans to construct a 1,900 km. EastMed pipeline to transport gas from the Levant Basin via Greece to Europe. One of the reasons given for canceling the project was creating tensions in the region i.e. dont upset Turkey.

Against a background of a thaw in relations between Turkey and Egypt, due consideration must be paid to Egypt as a gas hub and the founder of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). For example, a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed in June last year between the EU, Egypt and Israel to export Israeli gas to Europe via two Egyptian LNG plants.

By the same token, there is no logical reason why Cyprus should not serve as the conduit for the transport of Eastern Mediterranean gas via Turkey to Europe. As Egypts ambassador to the United States, Motaz Zahran, has explained the EMGF is the perfect example of a regional approach to address the Israeli-Palestinian issue and regional economic integration.

The same could apply to the Cyprus issue and the standoff in Eastern Med.

In the process, a number of camels will have to be swallowed, but according to Hatem Zadek, a professor at Helwan University, Mediterranean gas can fix what politics has spoiled.

The writer is an international adviser at RIEAS (Research Institute for European and American Studies) in Athens.

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Standoff in Eastern Mediterranean: Erdogan is barking up the wrong tree - The Jerusalem Post

Egypt's President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi is to embark on an official visit to Turkiye following an invitation by his Turkish counterpart and recently re-elected President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

News of Sisi's visit was disclosed by Ambassador Salih Mutlu Sen, who currently serves as Ankara's charge d'affaires in Cairo, Daily Sabah reported on Friday.

According to diplomatic sources, cited by broadcaster NTV, Erdogan extended the invitation to Sisi after the latter called him to congratulate him on his election victory. The Egyptian president is said to have welcomed the invitation, and may visit Ankara shortly after Eid Al-Adha, which starts on 28 June.

The latest diplomatic developments between the two countries follows an agreement to upgrade relations late last month by exchanging ambassadors, following years of strained ties, since Egypt's 2013 Saudi and UAE-backed military coup, which overthrew the late President Mohamed Morsi, who was a close political and ideological ally of Erdogan.

Since the democratically-elected Morsi government was overthrown, diplomatic relations between Ankara and Cairo have been mutually maintained at the level of charge d'affaires.

Back-door diplomacy between the two countries gained traction in November of last year, after Sisi and Erdogan met and shook hands at the sidelines of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.

OPINION: Normalisation between Egypt and Turkiye: The winners and losers

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Egypt's Sisi to visit Turkiye at Erdogan's invitation - Middle East Monitor

Thus, the thinktanks mostly believe in a continuation of traditional transactional relations with Turkey, which in its turn might refrain from further serious deterioration of relations with Western allies in the hope of getting the desired finances to save the Turkish economy. At the same time, Turkey will continue developing relations with major powers, including the USAs rivals, such as Russia and China, to its own benefit, which will inevitably create problems in US-Turkish relations.

As for the reaction of the US media to Erdogans reelection, a few arguments are to be highlighted.

The first argument is that Erdogans reelection will consolidate autocracy in Turkey. According to the US mass media, Erdogan had utilized all of the states resources, making use of its control over the media and the favorable electoral laws. Erdogans reelection is deemed as victory of the global club of autocracies. Moreover, another five years of Erdogans rule will further hollow out institutions and entrench authoritarian political habits in the countrys psyche.

Other sources point out that with his victory Erdogan extended his increasingly authoritarian rule. Erdogan is expected to introduce a new constitution to include and secure all the changes overseen by his conservative and religious Justice and Development Party. Second, Turkey will continue to deepen its ties with Russia moving away from the orbit of the West.

The US media is also worried about the anti-western stance of Turkey. Erdogan has repeatedly claimed that the United States endorsed his political rival during these elections, while his political opponent Kilicdaroglu in his turn blamed Russia for interfering into the elections. Moreover, in his Twitter blog he made a post in Russian urging Russia not to interfere in Turkish elections. Erdogan is continuously moving away from the transatlantic orb, building closer ties with Russia. To relieve Turkish economic problems Erdogan managed to receive financial support from Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Empires and Qatar in the form of central bank loans, which allowed Erdogan to raise salaries ahead of the elections.

The US media specifically highlighted the fact that Erdogans reelection was followed by a wave of congratulations from a number of autocracies, which were among the first to congratulate him. Those countries included Russia, Qatar, Libya, Algeria, Hungary, Iran and the Palestinian Authority. However, Russia was central and specific attention was given to Vladimir Putins congratulatory statement, which said that the elections were clear evidence of the Turkish peoples support for Erdogans efforts to strengthen state sovereignty and pursue an independent foreign policy. According to the US news agencies, even though Turkey is a NATO ally, the country established closer ties with Russia and deepened authoritarian rule. Hence this policy will have consequences outside Turkey, which in its turn has a strategically important position between the crossroads of Europe and Asia.

Last but not least, US media stressed that with Erdogans reelection Turkey will continue expanding its geopolitical role taking advantage of West-Russia confrontation.

According to various US media, despite all the challenges, Erdogan had one advantage during this presidential elections his deft geopolitical maneuvering in which he has expanded Turkeys influence in the region, especially the broader power conflict between Russia and the West. Moreover, Erdogan is said to have improved Turkeys positions, becoming an important world leader by facilitating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Erdogan managed to sell weapons to Kyiv while expanding economic ties with Moscow. As for the relations with Western allies, Erdogan is using its leverage over them, such as in holding up Swedens accession to NATO.

The US is well-aware that Erdogan manages to establish close ties with adversaries of the United States, particularly with Russia and China, despite being a NATO ally. Turkey serves its interests by interfering in the balance between the two poles. Erdogan manages to condemn Russias invasion of Ukraine, while at the same time refusing to impose sanctions on Russia. Instead, Turkish trade relations with Moscow are expanding. He calls Vladimir Putin my friend and prevents NATO expansion efforts by not allowing Sweden to join NATO.

By and large, judging from the reactions of the state officials, press and thinktanks, clear conclusions can be drawn about the US approach to the elections held in Turkey and the re-election of Erdogan. It is obvious that the United States is not particularly excited about Erdogans victory but will have to continue to cooperate with Erdogan and his political team, having both common interests and deep controversies.

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The Difficult Ally: What Does the US Expect from Re-elected ... - The Armenian Mirror-Spectator

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Turkey has summoned the Swiss ambassador in Ankara to protest the burning of an effigy of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Zurich.

This content was published on June 15, 2023 June 15, 2023

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The rebuke comes after videos were circulated showing the Erdogan doll effigy being set ablaze in a shopping trolley on Wednesday.

The Swiss ambassador was told that provocations against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish flag are unacceptable, according to Turkish state media.

Turkey has demanded a Swiss investigation to track down and punish the perpetrators.

The Swiss foreign ministry told the Keystone-SDA news agency that it had been informed of the summons.

This is not the first time that Ankara has complained to Switzerland over anti-Erdogan protests on Swiss soil.

In 2017, the Turkish authorities were enraged by protestors in Bern who unfurled a banner depicting a gun pointed at the head of Erdogan and the slogan: Kill Erdogan with his own weapons.

However, Bern police refused to take action against the organisers of the demonstration.

Erdogan was narrowly re-elected as president following a closely-fought election last month.

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Turkey summons Swiss ambassador over Erdogan protests - SWI ... - SWI swissinfo.ch in English