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As Turkey nears potentially pivotal May 14 elections, all eyes are on two men incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his chief challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But their battle for the countrys highest office may be decided, in part, by a third candidate for the post.

After 21 years running the country, Erdogan faces the biggest test yet of his grip on power.

He currently trails in opinion polls behind Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of the Nation Alliance opposition bloc, but experts say the Erdogan camp is counting on another challenger, Muharrem Ince, to split the opposition vote and force a run-off.

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Turkey's Weakened Erdogan Seeks to Engineer Presidential Run-Off - Balkan Insight

Trkiye intensively continues with the debris removal efforts in the quake-hit southern region, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday.

"We continue our debris removal efforts intensively. While the construction of our permanent residences continues unabated, we have promised to complete them within one year," Erdogan said during his address to earthquake victims and search and rescue teams in the capital Ankara.

Trkiye plans to construct enough buildings in a year to meet the needs of the quake victims. Erdogan previously pledged that 319,000 houses would be built in the first year and 650,000 in total.

On Feb. 6, magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 quakes struck 11 Turkish provinces Adana, Adiyaman, Diyarbakir, Elazig, Hatay, Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye, and Sanliurfa.

Around 14 million people in Trkiye have been affected by the quakes, as well as many others in northern Syria.

Erdogan also said the debris removal will be completed in all provinces, except Hatay, by the start of the Eid al-Fitr holiday on April 21, marking the end of the holy Ramadan month.

"We will deliver some of the village houses until Eid al-Fitr," he added.

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Trkiye continues with debris removal efforts in quake-hit region ... - Yeni afak English

After the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in Turkey in 2002, Ankaras approach to Israel began to change for the worse. There were major fears at the time that the defense ties that characterized bilateral relations would vanish and create an irreparable rupture.

Within six years, ties indeed went from friendly to hostile.

And yet, the recent Israeli humanitarian delegation sent to assist Turkey in Februarys earthquake disaster is the latest reminder of the fact that these days, Jerusalems relations with Ankara are marked by a high degree of stability. Thats not something that should be taken for granted; it took years for the two countries to reach this stage after dealing with several major crises.

The 2010 Mavi Marmara crisis (when Israeli Navy commandos and Turkish Islamist activists trying to reach Gaza were involved in a deadly clash) marked a low point. Yet since then, the two regional powers have found a way to restore relations and maintain them to a degree.

This was achieved primarily through civilian cooperation, as returning to the military cooperation that existed before Erdogans rise to power would be very hard. Israel would have to find alternative security partners in the Mediterranean which it did in the form of Greece.

Once in power, Erdogan wanted to be the leader of the Islamic world and navigate according to a neo-Ottoman playbook. Unlike Ataturk, who turned Turkey from an empire to a state, Erdogan wants to return his country to empire mode.

On the one hand, Erdogan tried to employ a zero-conflict policy with Turkeys neighbors, while seeking to increase its influence in the region through soft power, based on leveraging economic and cultural ties, rather than military means.

However, Turkeys military involvement in conflicts in Syria and Libya, and severe tensions that developed with Greece and Israel put a dent in the zero-conflict approach.

In addition, Turkeys political influence on Arab Muslim states remained extremely limited. Theoretical predictions look nice on paper, but Erdogan quickly found out that reality doesnt always align. No one in the Arab Sunni world was willing to accept him as a regional leader Egypt and Saudi Arabia hold that position in the Sunni bloc.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia was unwilling to give up its role as the leader of the Islamic world. As a result, Turkey took up the banner of assisting the Palestinians, as part of its regional leadership bid. Yet Erdogan quickly understood that if he wants to be influential in the Arab world, he must have good ties with Israel, or he risks losing relevance.

All the Arab powers have ties with Israel, some formally like Jordan and Egypt, and, since the 2020 Abraham Accords also the UAE and Bahrain, while others, such as Saudi Arabia, maintain informal ties. As the Arab states moved forward, Erdogan was left behind.

Erdogan understood that if he remained excluded, the Abraham Accords would further decrease Turkeys influence on the region and the Arab world and this realization also helped convince him of the need to change his attitude to Israel. Meanwhile, Erdogan was a big disappointment to the United States, as it moved closer to Russia and created a crisis in NATO.

Israel, in Erdogans view, is therefore an important means for him to repair some of that damage by enabling him to forge new connections with the US and open doors in Europe via improved ties with Jerusalem. Hence, Turkey has focused on promoting civilian ties with the Jewish state.

In addition, economic trade has remained consistently high. Since Erdogan took office as prime minister in 2002, trade between Israel and Turkey has increased fivefold. Furthermore, Erdogan believes that strengthening ties with Israel will benefit his countrys economy and increase its global influence.

As a result, he has made efforts to improve diplomatic relations with Jerusalem but without giving up his ongoing effort to stress the Palestinian issue.

This is why some Hamas members are still allowed to be active on Turkish soil, though these days, this activity mostly involves Hamas political wing. Hamas Deputy Political Bureau Chief Salah Al-Arouri who in reality oversees West Bank terrorism efforts is today based in Lebanon after relocating from Turkey. The AKP Party views Hamas political wing as a sister movement.

Erdogans growing problems mean that he is keener than ever to improve ties with Europe, the US, Sunni states and Israel.

Kurdish autonomous zones in northern Syria have an immediate impact on southern Turkey that Ankara finds disturbing. Millions of Syrian refugees remain in Turkey, creating a serious economic problem. Iran worries Erdogan due to its ongoing attempts to change the balance of power in Syria to the determinant of Turkish-backed Sunni forces in the north of the country.

Iranians are present on the Syrian Mediterranean coastline, and this Iranian entrenchment is not viewed positively by Erdogan. Sunni Turkey sees Shiite Islamist regional influence as a destructive force. Despite four hundred years of quiet on the Turkish Iranian border, these are far from being brotherly states.

Erdogan also has huge economic problems and needs to attract new investments by improving ties with Europe and the US. He is also interested in becoming a distributor of Israeli gas to Europe.

These factors have led to a substantial change in Erdogans tone. When he criticizes Israel, he uses a vastly different tone from the one he used in the early years of his government rule.

That Israeli and Turkish security organizations were reportedly able to cooperate closely to thwart Iranian terror cells on Turkish soil sent to target Israelis in June 2022 is a further reflection of this change.

Erdogan has not given up his vision of establishing himself as an important Muslim leader who promotes the Palestinian cause but he has learned that he cannot achieve this by continually bashing Israel. Turkey also has direct potential gains it can make from its improved ties with Israel.

Israeli companies are already involved in helping Istanbul better manage its water system, with Israeli-made sensors helping to prevent water leakages from its pipes. There is interest on both sides in further cooperation. This will continue to be limited to the civilian sector because Erdogan has not shed all his neo-Ottoman influences.

Greece, for its part, has no reason to feel threatened by the Israeli-Turkish thaw, precisely because it is limited to civilian issues. The good judgment of both Israeli and Turkish decision-makers has enabled ties to become stable once more, as they should be.

The writer is a publishing expert with The MirYam Institute. He is a former senior deputy director-general of the Foreign Ministry. He served as Israels ambassador to Chile, Colombia and Turkey.

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How Turkey and Israel salvaged their relationship - opinion - The Jerusalem Post

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a recent rally in the capital, Ankara. (Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images)

Swedens hopes of quickly following Finland into NATO membership have alighted on Turkeys presidential election in May, in which recent polls show President Recep Tayyip Erdogans 20-year rule is in danger of ending.

The signals that Sweden has gotten from the opposition have been very good, Paul Levin, director of Stockholm Universitys Institute for Turkish Studies, said of the National Alliance coalition of six parties challenging Erdogan. The opposition has indicated that they would ratify Swedens NATO membership rather soon.

In recent months, Erdogans popularity in Turkey has sharply eroded due to factors including the countrys economic hyperinflation, Februarys devastating earthquakes that killed upwards of 50,000 and the governments slow and lackluster response to the disaster. As Erdogans problems have mounted, Kemal Kilicdaroglu (pronounced ka-LEECH-da-ro-lo), the leader of the National Alliance coalition, has in recent weeks begun polling ahead of the president.

Moderate and more secular but lacking Erdogans charisma, Kilicdaroglu is known as Turkeys Gandhi after he walked 200 miles from Istanbul to Ankara in a March for Justice six years ago in protest of Erdogans antidemocratic legislation. While few would previously have given him much of a chance to win, recent voter surveys show him ahead by 3% to 10%. If that political earthquake were to actually come to pass on May 14, many experts say the effects would certainly be felt in Sweden.

If Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins the presidential elections, the chances for Sweden to become a member of NATO would increase, foreign policy analyst Pinar Sayan, an associate fellow at the Istanbul Political Research Institute, told Yahoo News.

Although Turkey voted to approve Finlands entry into NATO last week over objections from Russia, it has so far blocked Sweden from joining. Erdogan has demanded that Stockholm extradite dozens of Kurdish immigrants an ethnic minority in Turkey involved in secession attempts and militant actions whom Turkeys government deems to be terrorists. Over the past year, Sweden has extradited only three.

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Turkey is quick to slap the terrorist label on those expressing sympathy for a cause, Asli Aydntasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Yahoo News. Most European countries make a distinction between thoughts and deeds.

In January, an anti-Islamic politician burned a Quran outside the Turkish Embassy just days after a fringe Kurdish group strung up an effigy of Erdogan in front of Stockholm City Hall. While legally protected under Swedens freedom of expression laws, those events enraged the Turkish president. At this rate, Swedens NATO membership application will never be approved by Turkey, Numan Kurtulmus, deputy chairman of Erdogans Justice and Development Party, told Turkish reporters.

Theres a prevalent belief in Sweden that Russia is funding some of the protests that have gotten under Erdogans skin.

Russia is perceived to be everywhere in seeking to prevent Swedish accession, including in Turkeys refusal to ratify, Gunilla Herolf, a research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, told Yahoo News. Many Swedes, for example, suspect that Moscow was involved in Januarys effigy hanging and Quran-burning incidents, Herolf said, and videos of such protests have been used by Erdogan to try to galvanize domestic support.

Hanging an effigy of a president may not be a huge deal in the United States, but in Turkey it resonates, said Aydntasbas. Erdogan takes it very personally and blames Swedish authorities for allowing these demonstrations to take place.

Erdogan addressing a rally on Monday. (Aytac Unal/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Keenly aware of how those demonstrations have played in Turkey and other Islamic countries, Swedish police instituted a ban on Quran burning, only to have a Swedish court toss it out last week. Swedes have a very almost self-righteous support of free speech issues, noted Aydntasbas. And the result is a conversation [between Sweden and Turkey] that is not going anywhere.

But if Kilicdaroglu does manage an upset over Erdogan, and the current government goes the extra step of allowing those results to stand, Aydntasbas believes the first order of business would be improving Turkeys rule of law and trying to reverse the countrys authoritarian drift.

Erdogans government is believed to have jailed nearly a third of the journalists imprisoned worldwide, and recently passed a disinformation law that tightens Erdogans hold over news and social media platforms.

An efficient and well-coordinated opposition may do well in elections. But there are risks that people have to take into account, Aydntasbas said, who noted that one of them is that Turkey is a country that tends to experience unforeseen events in the run-up to elections.

On April 6, for example, bullets were reportedly fired at Kilicdaroglus party headquarters.

Levin said that Swedes are growing frustrated with the Turkish Parliaments refusal to ratify its membership into NATO, saying Sweden has taken action on all of Erdogans demands, including putting together antiterrorism legislation, considering extradition requests and dropping a ban on selling military equipment to Turkey after its 2019 attack on a Kurdish militia in Syria. Theres not much more Sweden can do within the bounds of rule of law, Levin added.

Turkish presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. (Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images)

If Erdogan does prevail in the May elections, his hard line on forcing concessions from Sweden in order to grant it entry into NATO may ultimately be seen as a deciding factor.

It was good domestically for Erdogan to green-light Finland and red-light Sweden, former U.S. diplomat Elizabeth Shackelford, now a senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, told Yahoo News. Its a pretty clear demonstration of the power he wields inside NATO. Erdogans making Turkeys position hugely relevant for the worlds most important defense alliance. She added that Erdogan is keeping a card he can still play to get further concessions from NATO members, including an F-16 deal with the U.S.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, also acknowledged the importance of Swedens passage of a new counterterrorism law. If Erdogan wins, hell make the case that Sweden went to its knees and agreed to Turkeys demands, Cagaptay said, adding that whoever wins, Sweden will probably ultimately join Finland in NATO it may just be a question of how much more it is forced to concede.

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With NATO entry blocked, Sweden turns hopeful eye toward Turkey's presidential elections - Yahoo News

How did Turkish-Egyptian relations get so bad, and why are they now moving to restore their respective ambassadors?

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has met his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara, as the two countries make progress towards re-establishing full diplomatic relations after nearly a decade.

Thursdays visit is Shoukrys second trip to Turkey this year, while Cavusoglu also visited Egypt in March.

Speaking at a joint news conference, Cavusoglu said that the two countries were taking concrete steps to raise diplomatic relations to the highest level, indicating that the appointment of ambassadors may come soon.

But Shoukry did call on Turkey to withdraw its forces from Syria, underscoring some of the differences that still remain.

Relations between the two countries had soured following the overthrow of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in a coup in 2013.

Heres a timeline of relations between the two over the last 20 years:

2005: The two countries sign a free trade agreement, as economic ties between the two countries strengthened.

2011:As anti-government protests ramp up in Egypt, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan tells Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to listen to the people, days before he is overthrown in the Egyptian revolution in February. Erdogan travels to Egypt in September as part of a tour of countries affected by the Arab Spring.

2012: Ties strengthen after a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi, becomes Egypts first democratically elected president. Erdogans AK Party and the Muslim Brotherhood are seen as having some ideological similarities, and Erdogan again visits Egypt, this time signing a loan agreement with the North African country that cements the positive relations between the two states.

2013: Morsis overthrow in a military coup leads to a dramatic shift in relations. Diplomatic ties are reduced to charge daffaires level as Erdogan calls the leader of the unacceptable coup, and future president of Egypt, Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, an illegitimate tyrant. In November, Cairo declares Turkeys ambassador persona non grata. Turkey gradually becomes a hub for Egyptian exiles, including senior Muslim Brotherhood leaders, and opposition media outlets, while Erdogan adopts a hand gesture made popular at anti-coup protests in Egypt.

In the coming years, the two countries are also at odds over Libya, where they back opposing factions in an unresolved conflict, and also over maritime borders in the gas-rich Eastern Mediterranean.

2020: Egypt, along with Greece, is at odds with Turkey in a tense maritime boundary dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean about rights to search for and exploit natural gas deposits.

2021: Egypt and Turkey hold exploratory talks in May and September to discuss the restoration of bilateral relations, as regional alliances shift following an end to the Gulf crisis between Turkeys ally Qatar on one side, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt on the other.

2023: In February, Egypts Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry pays a visit to Turkey in a show of solidarity after the devastating earthquakes that killed tens of thousands of people marking the first visit of an Egyptian official to Turkey in a decade.

In March, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu makes a one-day visit to Egypt amid continuing efforts to mend ties between Ankara and Cairo the first senior Turkish official to visit Egypt in the last decade.

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A look at two decades of ties as Egypt, Turkey move to end rift - Al Jazeera English