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The devastating earthquake in Turkey poses a significant test of governance for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is fighting for his political future just months before an election in May that could reshape the country.

Mr. Erdogan swept into power after a bungled government response to a 1999 earthquake that left more than 17,000 people dead and a financial crisis two years later. He has dominated Turkish politics for the two decades since but his support has been weakened recently by sky-high inflation that dented his reputation as a capable, if controversial, administrator.

The earthquake could really destroy the image of Erdogan as a powerful, autocratic, yet efficient leader, said Soner Cagaptay, who heads Turkey research at the Washington Institute, a policy research organization. We have to wait to see it could play out depending on the disaster response.

Mr. Erdogan, 68, faces a staggering task in the aftermath of Mondays earthquake, which was one of the deadliest and most destructive natural disasters this century. Damage could top $1 billion, according to an estimate by the United States Geological Survey. Thousands are dead and the toll is rising.

He also faces a political challenge: Recent polls suggest that no one would win outright in the first round of presidential voting, and that either of two potential opposition candidates could beat Mr. Erdogan in a runoff, with survey margins ranging from single digits to more than 20 percentage points.

Turkish opponents and Western officials have accused Mr. Erdogan of pushing the country toward autocracy, largely because of sweeping powers he granted himself since a narrow majority of voters passed a referendum in 2017 that expanded the presidents role.

On Tuesday, he declared a three-month state of emergency in 10 provinces affected by the earthquake, allowing for limitations on freedoms that could include curfews, travel bans and compulsory assignment for civil servants.

The move raised immediate concerns, given the steps Mr. Erdogan took in 2016 after a failed coup attempt against him. A nationwide state of emergency was initially supposed to last three months but was extended for a total of two years. During that time, more than 100,000 people were detained and 150,000 public employees were purged from their jobs.

But analysts called Tuesdays announcement an understandable step in light of the scale of the quakes devastation. The three-month period would end shortly before the May 14 vote.

So far, the opposition has refrained from criticizing the response to the earthquake, with all the political parties on Tuesday issuing a rare joint statement of unity in the face of the temblor.

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Erdogans Election Hopes Could Hinge on Earthquake Response

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses members of his ruling AK Party (AKP) during a meeting at the parliament in Ankara, Turkey May 18, 2022. Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT

Murat Cetinmuhurdar | Reuters

Turkey will keep cutting interest rates, its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, despite soaring inflation at over 80%.

The central bank of Turkey will not be raising rates, he told CNN Turk on Wednesday night, adding that he expects the country's key rate, currently 12%, to hit single digits by the end of this year.

Faced with deepening economic problems, Erdogan also took the time to throw some barbs at the U.K., saying that the British pound has "blown up."

The U.K. currency recently hit a historic low against the U.S. dollar at close to $1.03, as the new Conservative government led by Prime Minister Liz Truss put forward an economic plan based heavily on borrowing and tax cuts despite mounting inflation that sent markets reeling.

It's prompted alarmed reactions from U.S. economists, policymakers and the International Monetary Fund, with some saying the U.K. is behaving like an emerging market.

Turkey's lira, meanwhile, hit a record low of 18.549 against the dollar on Thursday. The currency has lost roughly 28% of its value against the dollar this year and 80% in the last 5 years as markets shunned Erdogan's unorthodox monetary policy of cutting interest rates despite high inflation.

"Oh the irony, Erdogan giving Truss advice on the economy," Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in an email note.

"Turkey has 80% inflation and I guess the worst performing currency over the past decade. Lol.How low the U.K. has sunk."

People browse gold jewelry in the window of a gold shop in Istanbul's Grand Bazaar on May 05, 2022 in Istanbul, Turkey. Gold prices ticked higher on Monday as the dollar hovered near recent lows, with investors' focus being on a key U.S. inflation reading as it could influence the size of the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate hike.

Burak Kara | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Erdogan doubled down on his controversial monetary plan on Thursday, saying that he told central bank decision-makers to continue lowering rates at its next meeting in October.

"My biggest battle is against interest. My biggest enemy is interest. We lowered the interest rate to 12%. Is that enough? It is not enough. This needs to come down further," Erdogan said during an event, according to a Reuters translation.

"We have discussed, are discussing this with our central bank. I suggested the need for this to come down further in upcoming monetary policy committee meetings," he added. Turkey's central bank shocked markets with two consecutive 100 basis point cuts in the last two months, as many other major economies seek to tighten policy.

The lira meanwhile is set to fall further as Turkey prioritizes growth over tackling inflation, which is at its highest in 24 years. In addition to the skyrocketing living costs this has brought on Turkey's population of 84 million, the country is burning through its foreign exchange reserves and has a widening current account deficit.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve raises its interest rate and the dollar grows stronger, Turkey's many dollar-denominated debts, and the energy it imports in dollars, will only become more painful to pay for.

"With external financing conditions tightening, the risks remain firmly skewed to sharp and disorderly falls in the lira," Liam Peach, a senior emerging markets economist, wrote in a note after Turkey's last rate cut on Sept. 22.

"The macro backdrop in Turkey remains poor. Real interest rates are deeply negative, the current account deficit is widening and short-term external debts remain large," he wrote. "It may not take a significant tightening of global financial conditions for investor risk sentiment towards Turkey to sour and add more downward pressure on the lira."

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Erdogan says Turkey will keep cutting interest rates, mocks British pound - CNBC

ISTANBUL, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Turkey will re-inforce its military presence in northern Cyprus after the United States lifted defence trade restrictions on Cyprus, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday.

Speaking in a televised interview with broadcaster CNN Turk, Erdogan said the lifting of the restrictions was "inexplicable in terms of content and timing."

Earlier this month, the U.S. State Department said Secretary of State Antony Blinken had lifted defense trade restrictions for Cyprus for fiscal year 2023. read more

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"The United States, which overlooks and even encourages the steps by the Cypriot-Greek duo that threaten peace and stability in the eastern Mediterranean, will lead to an armament race on the island with this step," Erdogan said.

"Will we stand by? We cannot," he said, adding that Turkey already has 40,000 troops on the island and will reinforce them with land, naval and aerial weapons, ammunition and vehicles, Erdogan said.

"Everyone must know that this last step will not go unresponded and that every precaution will be taken for the security of the Turkish Cypriots," Erdogan said.

Cyprus was split following a 1974 Turkish invasion triggered by a brief Greek-inspired coup. Since then, Cyprus has been run by a Greek Cypriot administration in the south that Ankara does not recognise.

The breakaway Turkish state on the northern side of the divided island is only recognised by Ankara.

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Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Sandra Maler

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Turkey to re-inforce military presence in northern Cyprus -Erdogan - Reuters

In the spring of 2006, for one of my first jobs in journalism, I worked as a reporting intern for a wire service at the UN headquarters in New York. Two days a week I marched into the sleek Secretariat building looming over the East River, eager to cover the days most urgent issues the Darfur crisis, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, global hunger and more.

I soon discovered that diplomats were much better at their jobs than I had imagined. They would look me dead in the eye and respond to my questions with intelligence and apparent insight. Yet, once I had typed up the interview and dropped it into my article, I would realise they had simply used different words to express sentiments that had been said a hundred times before.

Reporting at the UN was like panning for gold: high hopes inevitably crumbled as the sifting turned up only sand. Amid the flurry of flashbulbs, it turned out, very little of substance occurred. By the time I left, I viewed the UN as little more than the worlds pre-eminent public relations platform.

Britain's Prime Minister Liz Truss holds a bilateral meeting with Turkey's President Erdogan at the Turkey Mission Building in New York during the 77th UN General Assembly, on September 21. Pool photo via AP

This might explain why Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has over the years shown a knack for grabbing the worlds attention on his autumnal visits to Turtle Bay. In his first UN General Assembly speech in 2005, he declared terrorism the enemy of humankind and launched the Alliance of Civilisations initiative with Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, Spains then prime minister, to unite international counter-extremism efforts.

In 2014, Mr Erdogan invoked, for the first time on the global stage, the phrase that has since become his refrain on the UN Security Councils five permanent members. I should emphasise that the world is bigger than five, he said.

In 2016, he denounced Europes degrading treatment of a wave of newly arrived, mostly Arab refugees and, just weeks after a failed coup had shaken Turkey, urged the world to take measures against his governments main suspect, the Gulen movement.

In 2019, he proposed a controversial safe zone in northern Syria and defended the rights of Palestinians. Where are the borders of the state of Israel? he wondered, denouncing Israeli annexations as illegitimate.

Absent was the fire of earlier UN speeches. He called for peace in Syria but refrained from criticising the EU and US

Last year, Mr Erdogan handed out copies of his new book, urging reform at the UN and other international bodies, and inaugurated the $300 million Turkish House. He described Turkeys new consulate and permanent UN mission 17 metres taller than Secretariat, just across the street as an expression of his nations growing influence.

This year, in contrast, Mr Erdogan seemed more subdued, seeking to highlight his countrys positive role in world affairs. Citing the need for food security in the Horn of Africa and peace talks in Ukraine, he said Turkey had endeavoured to be part of the solution around the world.

Hes half right, as were in the midst of another Tale-of-Two-Cities moment for Mr Erdogan. At home he may be less well liked than hes been since his last days as Istanbul mayor, a quarter-century ago. And tensions with Greece, Turkeys Aegean neighbour, have spiked in recent weeks as the two have traded insults and accusations.

But farther abroad, despite lingering tensions with the US and EU, Turkey has made real diplomatic gains, including renewed ties with Gulf powers, Israel and Egypt. In New York, Mr Erdogan held a meeting with Israeli Prime Minster Yair Lapid, marking the first time since the George W Bush presidency that an Israeli prime minister met a Turkish president.

However troubling Mr Erdogans threats to open the gates of migration have been, its Turkey not Greece, as top EU officials have asserted that has served as Europes refugee shield, hosting 4-5 million foreigners for nearly a decade and keeping them out of the EU.

Also, even as Turkey has strengthened ties with Azerbaijan, potentially providing Europe with a much-needed alternative to Russian natural gas, Ankara has inched toward normalisation with historic rival Armenia and the opening of their long-closed border.

Last but not least is Ukraine. Ankaras western and Nato allies have been largely unable to criticise its continued friendly relations with Moscow because of how it has leveraged them. With more than 40 countries at risk of famine in late summer, Turkey played a crucial role in bringing Ukraine and Russia to agree on a plan to release millions of tonnes of grain from Ukrainian ports.

Since March, Ankara has spearheaded efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table. There will be no losers in a fair peace process, Mr Erdogan told the UN General Assembly, calling for support of Turkeys diplomacy.

Absent was the fire of earlier UN speeches. He called for peace in Syria but refrained from criticising the EU and US for their unwillingness to help solve the refugee issue. He also stayed his hand on Moscows military mobilisation, even as reports emerged that four of five military summons in Russian-occupied Crimea have gone to Crimean Tatars a persecuted Turkic-Muslim minority Mr Erdogan regularly defends.

His most notable activity in New York was an afternoon stroll in Central Park. He met a local rabbi, sat for photos with parents and their children, and from one passerby, received a hearty "thank you" on Ukraine, for the drones, the grain deal and helping to make Nato stronger.

The Presidents communications team released a seven-minute video of the park visit, which some critics said had been staged. This is understandable; in Turkey, Mr Erdogan does not stroll through parks or chat with everyday citizens. But it all seemed real enough.

Turkeys lira hit yet another record low last week, at 18.42 to the dollar, and the governing AKP has been trailing in polls for months. With elections looming next year, the Central Park video was probably an attempt to humanise Mr Erdogan, to present a warmer leader who is also comfortable in the world.

Maybe after years of relishing his moment in the spotlight, Mr Erdogan has come to share my view that the UN is mostly sound and fury. Perhaps he decided to take a break and enjoy his time in the Big Apple, walk in the park, revel in recent successes, speak in the third person.

A Turkish reporter at the UN asked if he hoped to meet US President Joe Biden and he shook his head. He is Biden, Turkeys leader responded with a grin. Im Erdogan.

Published: September 26, 2022, 2:00 PM

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Erdogan was different at the UN this time - The National

In 1992, shortly after the Soviet Unions collapse, the U.S. Congress passed the Freedom Support Act to support open markets and coordinate assistance for the successor states of the Soviet Union. Against the backdrop of Azerbaijans blockade on Armenia, however, Section 907 of the act forbade the application of assistance to Azerbaijan. The language was simple. United States assistance under this or any other Actmay not be provided to the Government of Azerbaijan until the President determines, and so reports to the Congress, that the Government of Azerbaijan is taking demonstrable steps to cease all blockades and other offensive uses of force against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

For almost a decade, Azerbaijan did not receive any of the billions of dollars distributed under the aegis of the Act. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, though, Azerbaijan positioned itself as a counterterrorism ally. The cost of Azerbaijans support was an amendment establishing a waiver to Section 907, applicable so long as the president (via the State Department) can certify that Azerbaijan remains committed to diplomacy.

Azerbaijan has received a waiver every year since, even though both the Trump and Biden administrations have violated the letter and spirit of the law by issuing a waiver after President Ilham Aliyevs government launched its 2020 attack on Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyevs open belittling of diplomacy as a means to resolve conflict and eliminationist rhetoric against Armenia as a state should have been clear disqualifiers. Azerbaijan has interpreted the Biden administrations continued waiver as a greenlight for aggression.

While the Biden administration should revoke the waiver for Azerbaijan (and Congress should remove the option if the State Department serially violates the law), both the State Department and Congress should recognize that Section 907 provides an even more potent tool for regional security.

There is credible evidence that, during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Turkey both flew U.S.-provided F-16s in support of Azerbaijan and Turkish Special Forces supported Azerbaijani forces as they captured Shushi (or Shusha as the Azerbaijanis call it). While the language of Section 907 explicitly prohibits United States assistance [to] be provided to the Government of Azerbaijan, it does not limit the prohibition to direct assistance. Indeed, standard American practice is to prohibit transshipment of military hardware. Whether Turks piloted the planes on behalf of Azerbaijan or allowed Azerbaijani pilots to fly them is irrelevant. Either way, Congress can embrace a creative interpretation to apply Section 907 to the prohibition of any military hardware or other assistance to Turkey, NATO member or not, so long as it too does not meet the conditions of the Freedom Support Act. Because Turkey continues to blockade Armenia and openly supported Azerbaijans most recent attack on Armenia proper, it is clear that Turkey would not meet the conditions. To qualify for a waiver, Turkey would essentially have to cut itself off militarily from Azerbaijan instead of using it as a proxy for military aggression and ethnic cleansing.

The ramifications of such a move go further: Turkey continues to occupy one-third of Cyprus, has bombed Kurdish and Yezidi villages in Iraq on an almost daily basis, and increasingly threatens Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. The language of Section 907 might apply to aggression toward Armenia but what happens in Armenia does not stay in Armenia.

Washington might not see Armenia as a pivotal state to regional security, but it should understand that Armenia is the proverbial canary in the coal mine. As Turkey grows more aggressive, it is essential that both Democrats and Republicans in Congress use all non-military tools in their arsenal to prevent Turkish aggression along the breadth of its land and sea borders.

Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Dr. Michael Rubin is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shiite politics, including Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East? (AEI Press, 2019); Kurdistan Rising (AEI Press, 2016); Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes (Encounter Books, 2014); and Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave, 2005).

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Halt Erdogan's Aggression: Apply Section 907 to Turkey - 19FortyFive