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SPANIARDS EAGERLY tuned in on December 22nd to watch the annual Christmas lottery, nicknamed el gordo (the fat one). Punters were hoping for a share of 2.4bn ($2.7bn) in prizes. The European Union, meanwhile, had placed a bet of its own. It hoped Spains politicians might go out of their way to win a national jackpot of 70bn, the countrys share of the EUs 750bn covid recovery fund. The grants were conditional on reforms, especially in two worrisome areas: pensions and the jobs market. The government met the EUs deadline of December 31st. Whether its reforms merit the name is another matter.

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Spains government, made up of the Socialists and the far-left Unidas Podemos grouping, entered office in 2019 on a misguided pledge to repeal an earlier reform from 2012. Those changes had made layoffs cheaper and let unions strike wage deals within individual firms, rather than in industry-wide negotiations. This is thought to have aided Spains strong recoveries from the euro crisis and the pandemic. The package the government announced on December 23rd stopped short of repeal, but took no great steps forward either.

The governments goal was to make the labour market less unequal. Some Spaniards have good jobs and are nearly unsackable; others have temporary contracts and little security. The new proposal curbs time-limited contracts and tries to stop companies from evading the law by subcontracting. Promisingly, it would make permanent a pandemic-era measure in which the state pays temporarily furloughed workers. Both the unions and the employers organisation blessed the deal. But it contains no creative solutions to Spains high structural unemployment.

The other big missed chance was fixing pensions. Spaniards retire young (at 60.7 on average), live long (83.5 years on average) and get generous pensions (80% of pre-retirement earnings against an average of 62% in the OECD, a club mostly of rich countries). Spain has yet to feel the full strain of these promises because its baby boom came late. But the crunch will come. A reform passed earlier this year merely offered inducements to postpone retirement and increased contributions slightly (by 0.1 percentage points of salary paid by workers, and 0.5 paid by employers). That is not nearly enough.

The European Commission is now in theory to judge whether Spains reforms are sufficient to release the next tranche of money. No one expects a thumbs-down: the commission does not want to deliver a shock to the EUs fourth-biggest economy in the midst of a pandemic. The money will be put to some good uses, primarily greening and digitising the economy. But the chance to use it to fund bigger reforms has been lost, at least for now. Like punters who bet on el gordo, the EU must hope future years bring more luck.

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline "A bad bet"

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Spain's reforms in 2021 were only tiny steps - The Economist

The news comes as the Northern Ireland Protocol is yet to be resolved, and with the resignation of the former Brexit Minister, Lord David Frost, the talks are set to continue into the new year under the instructions of Foreign Minister, Liz Truss. Taking to Twitter to discuss the right of sovereignty following Brexit, Conservative peer, Lord Daniel Moylan said: I can think of no higher definition of political integrity than seeking to free your whole country from foreign laws and restoring democracy to that part of it living under laws made with no say by them.

Sparking the row, Lord Moylan then went on to say: The people of Northern Ireland have no electoral say in how laws are now made for them by the EU.

Replying to Lord Moylan, "Patti Fordyce" said: Couldn't agree more, but spending the last nearly two years being virtually ruled by decree hasn't persuaded that we have reached where we want to be yet.

The debate continued with LordMoylan reiterating: But if youre dissatisfied you have the precious right to vote the Government out.

He added: How do the people of Northern Ireland vote if theyre dissatisfied with EU law-making? No democracy for them. Its a scandal in 21st century Europe.

The European Union however has remained highly critical over the ongoing talks.

London has breached a great deal of trust with Europe, the blocs chief negotiator has claimed.

European Commission vice president Maros Sefcovic told German news website Der Spiegel that problems with the Northern Ireland Protocol a way to maintain a free-flowing land border on the island of Ireland after Brexit meant the UK broke international law in trying to get around the arrangement.

But he said he is still confident that a compromise can be found between the two sides, although he admitted it will not be easy.

READ MORE:British farmer hails EU split as bloc tries to hamstring them

Mr Sefcovic told Der Spiegel he is pragmatic about Foreign Secretary Liz Truss taking on responsibility for post-Brexit negotiations with the EU, after Brexit minister Lord Frost resigned earlier this month.

The commissioner warned that if Ms Truss was to trigger Article 16, a move that would effectively unilaterally suspend the treaty agreed between the UK and the EU, it would throw into jeopardy the foundation of the entire deal reached between the two sides.

Ms Truss has said she remains prepared to invoke Article 16 if issues are not resolved.

But Mr Sefcovic said: This is a very distracting element in the discussions. You try to achieve something together and bam theres the threat of Article 16 again."

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The situation was also discussed in the Republic of Ireland.

Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney said: We all know that we need to bring this discussion and negotiation to an end.

He added: We have elections in Northern Ireland in May. Those elections will begin in earnest really from the end of February. So this cant drift on for months.

Since Brexit, Northern Ireland has remained within the EUs single market for goods because the alternative a hard customs border on the island was ruled out as a threat to the 1998 peace deal that ended three decades of sectarian conflict known as the Troubles.

However, that meant implementing customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland instead.

These were set out in the part of the Brexit agreement known as the Northern Ireland protocol, which is being renegotiated.

The UK had made no concessions all year; the EU has made multiple concessions and continues to do so.Mr Coveney said. Lets not pretend that both sides have compromised here... Now both sides need to compromise a little bit more.

The concessions London has extracted from Brussels would halve customs checks and slash health checks on British products destined for Northern Ireland by 80 per cent, according to Maros Sefcovic, the EUs Brexit negotiator.

Read more:
The people have no say! Brexit row erupts over EU rules dictating parts of Britain - Daily Express

Editors note: Moscows buildup of troops on and near Ukraines borders and bellicose rhetoric have raised the prospect of a major conventional war in Europe.The phone call today between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin underscores the dangers of this Kremlin-manufactured crisis. Below is a statement by twenty-four distinguishedexperts and former senior officials offering their ideas on how to deter Moscow from escalating its current war of aggression against Ukraine and more broadly to discourage Moscow from future provocations. The statement represents the views of the signatories and not of their institutions.

Since President Bidens virtual summit with President Putin on December 7, Russia has increased its troop presence on or near Ukraines borders. Having created this crisis, the Kremlin has demanded security guarantees for Russia that the United States and its allies cannot possibly provide. It has made provocative statements at high levels, including outlandish claims that US private military contractors intend to launch a chemical weapons attack in eastern Ukraine. Moscow wrongly asserts that NATO enlargement has created a military threat to Russia; the Alliance has fully abided by its commitments in the NATO-Russia Founding Act to refrain from deploying nuclear weapons or permanently stationing substantial combat forces on the territory of new member states, despite the fact that Russia has violated many of its own Founding Act commitments, as well as the UN Charter, the Helsinki Final Act, the Paris Charter, and the Budapest Memorandum.

In short, Moscow appears to be setting the stage for launching a major conventional assault on Ukraine, even though the United States and NATO have shown a willingness to sit down and discuss Kremlin concerns.

We believe the United States should, in closest consultation with its NATO allies and with Ukraine, take immediate steps to affect the Kremlins cost-benefit calculations before the Russian leadership opts for further military escalation. This means raising the costs that would ensue should the Russian military launch a new assault on Ukraine, building on the excellent set of measures the Biden administration has already laid out: enacting punishing sanctions on Moscow, sending major military supplies to Ukraine, and strengthening NATOs force posture on its eastern flank.

The administration should continue its good work with the European Union and other partners to ensure agreement on the elements of a response to any Russian assault on Ukraine, regardless of the extent or form of Russias escalation. Such a response would include a package of major and painful sanctions that would be applied immediately if Russia assaults Ukraine. Ideally, the outline of these sanctions would be communicated now to Moscow, so that the Kremlin has a clear understanding of the magnitude of the economic hit it will face. In particular, Washington should consult with Berlin and secure German agreement that it would prevent Nord Stream 2 from going into operation in the event of a Russian attack, making clear that otherwise the administration will not again waive sanctions on the pipeline.

The most important thing that the West can do now is to enhance the deterrent strength of Ukraines armed forces by providing military assistance and equipment on an expedited basis. For the Kremlin, a large invasion of Ukraine works only if Russian forces are able to seize and hold Ukrainian territory without sustaining significant and constant casualties. Western countries should act now to equip Ukraines military and territorial defense units with additional capabilities that can impose such costs.

Western military officials should consult urgently with their Ukrainian counterparts as to what assistance and equipment the Ukrainian military needs and could most quickly integrate into its operations to bolster its defensive strength. Such assistance might include additional Javelin anti-armor missiles and Q36 counter-battery radar systems as well as Stinger and other anti-aircraft missiles. The Biden administration should also encourage NATO allies to do more to enhance Ukraines defensive capabilities, making clear that the entire NATO Alliance stands together in opposing Russian aggression.

We believe that NATO should act now to begin bolstering its military presence on its eastern flank and communicating to Moscow that Russias escalation would bring a substantial number of US and Allied forces and a permanent presence in the Baltic states and Black Sea region. NATO should also signal to Moscow that any additional deployments could be reconsidered if/when the current crisis abates.

The West should also widen its political counteroffensive to retake the initiative from Moscow as it tries to use the threat of force to intimidate Ukraine, Europe, and the United States into acquiescing to its demands, many of which are plainly unjustified and unacceptable. The Biden administration should seek a Group of Seven (G7) statement at the head of state level condemning Moscows threat of wider war against Ukraine and work with allies and partners to use other fora, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and possibly the United Nations, to highlight the unacceptability of Russian military action and coercive threats.

The Biden administration should consult with NATO, the European Union, Ukraine, and key allies such as Poland on extensive preparations for dealing with the humanitarian crisis that a major Russian invasion would create.

Finally, the United States and its allies should continue to make clear their readiness for dialogue with Russia, to include concerns of NATO and other parties about Russian military and other aggressive activities. They have indicated that some elements in the Russia-proposed US-Russia treaty and NATO-Russia agreement may offer a basis for discussion and possible negotiation. The United States and NATO should make clear to the Kremlin that it must de-escalate the threatening military situation around Ukraine before there can be any substantive negotiation, and any negotiation must involve all parties whose security interests will be affected. These issues cannot simply be resolved in a bilateral US-Russia channel. Moreover, any negotiation should be consistent with the principles agreed to by all NATO members, Russia, and Ukraine, such as those in the Helsinki Final Act and the Charter of Paris.

Signed,

Dr. Stephen Blank

Senior Fellow

Foreign Policy Research Institute

General Philip Breedlove, USAF ret.

17th Supreme Allied Commander Europe

Distinguished Professor, Sam Nunn School, Georgia Institute of Technology

Ian Brzezinski

Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO Policy

Senior Fellow

Atlantic Council

Debra Cagan

Former US State and Defense Department official

Distinguished Energy Fellow

Transatlantic Leadership Network

General Wesley K. Clark

US Army (ret.)

12th Supreme Allied Commander, Europe

Senior Fellow, UCLA Burkle Center

Dr. Larry Diamond

Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution

Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Stanford University

Ambassador Paula Dobriansky

Former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs

Vice Chair, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Atlantic Council

Senior Fellow, Harvard University Belfer Center

Dr. Evelyn Farkas

Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia

Ambassador Daniel Fried

Former Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and US Ambassador to Poland

Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow

Atlantic Council

Dr. Francis Fukuyama

Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow

Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law

Director, Ford Dorsey Masters in International Policy

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Stanford University

Melinda Haring

Deputy Director, Eurasia Center

Atlantic Council

John E. Herbst

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine and Uzbekistan

Senior Director, Eurasia Center

Atlantic Council

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ben Hodges

Former Commander US Army Europe

Dr. Donald N. Jensen

Director, Russia and Strategic Stability

United States Institute of Peace

Andrea Kendall-Taylor

Center for a New American Security

Ambassador John Kornblum

Former US Ambassador to Germany

Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program

Center for Strategic International Studies

Ambassador Michael McFaul

Former US Ambassador to Russia

Director, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Stanford University

Ambassador Steven Pifer

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine

Willian Perry Fellow

Stanford University

Herman Pirchner, Jr.

President

American Foreign Policy Council

John Sipher

Former Officer and Chief of Station, CIA Clandestine Service

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center

Atlantic Council

Strobe Talbott

Former Deputy Secretary of State

Distinguished Fellow

The Brookings Institution

Ambassador William Taylor

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine

Vice President for Strategic Stability and Security

United States Institute of Peace

Ambassador Alexander Vershbow

Former US Ambassador to Russia

Former Deputy Secretary General of NATO

Distinguished Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Eurasia Center

Atlantic Council

Ambassador Kurt Volker

Former US Ambassador to NATO and US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations

Read the rest here:
How to deal with the Kremlin-created crisis in Europe - Atlantic Council

In one of the flowerbeds in Esteban el Grande Square, in the center of Chisinau, a light blue European Union flag, with its 12 stars, welcomes office workers who tap on its cobblestones, a gang of kids who enjoy of a winter walk and some female deputy hurrying to the white, broad, Soviet Moldovan Parliament. The authorities placed the banner last May, Europe Day, and there it remained, between a sculpture of the famous prince of Moldavia from the 15th century, the carving of the Russian writer Alexander Pushkin and a bust of the Romanian Moldovan romantic poet Mihai Eminescu. Quite a metaphor for the small country wedged between Romania and Ukraine, where since the independence of the Soviet Union, three decades ago, political battles have been fought between groups that want greater closeness with their Romanian neighbor or with the EU and those who bet on closer ties with Russia.

Moldovas geopolitical orientation has been lurching cyclically between Brussels and Moscow. It is one of the poorest countries in Europe, with less than three million inhabitants, a population depleted by emigration, a still vulnerable economy, high levels of corruption and a prevailing disillusionment with the political and economic elites. Now, 50% of the public supports the accession to the EU while 33% are against and look towards Russia, according to the Public Opinion Barometer.

For the Kremlin, Moldova is a strategic country. President Vladimir Putin, with his expansionist policy and his aspirations to return to Russia the role of great superpower that the USSR had, tries to maintain his influence over the former Soviet republics. And in Moldova it has important political and economic ties that serve as levers. As its role as the sole supplier of gas, emphasizes the energy expert Sergiu Tofilat.

In November, amid the global energy crisis due to rising prices, the pro-European Moldovan government declared a state of emergency after its agreement with the Russian gas company Gazprom expired and it was unable to close a new one at prices that the small country could afford. . Chisinau had been paying 170 euros for 1,000 cubic meters and happened to pay 680 euros. A clear blackmail and punishment against the new government, says Tofilat. Moscow manages the gas tap to undermine the credibility of the new Executive and to open windows of influence in the population that add to the electoral interference and its propaganda in the media, he says. The Kremlin and Gazprom have ensured that everything surrounding the Moldovan gas crisis is due to economic disagreements.

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Also in Brussels they saw the gas chapter as the movement of one of Moscows most powerful tentacles, trying to gain a foothold in the country after the pro-European technocrat Maia Sandu, a 48-year-old former World Bank official, seized the presidency. Kremlin ally Igor Dodon last year and his party, Action and Solidarity, swept the parliamentarians last July. After weeks of crisis, Chisinau ended up reaching an agreement with Gazprom for 400 euros per 1,000 cubic meters over five years. A much less advantageous price than the Russian giant has signed with Belarus or Serbia, which pays about 238 euros. Despite this, the contract has raised the suspicions of analysts, who believe that the Kremlin has tried to obtain important concessions from Chisinau, such as curbing the impulse to approach Brussels. Already when Moldova signed the Association Treaty with the EU in 2014, Moscow restricted Moldovan imports.

The government of Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita, a Harvard-educated reformist, has denied any concessions. And just a few weeks ago, Sandu, who repeated that Moldova wants to build a Europe at home as a formula for navigating between Moscow and the West, also made it clear that the country wants to be a member of the EU one day.

Alina Yunuspecova believes that Moldova should not choose between Russia and the community club. In a cafe with aesthetics eco-hipster From the center of Chisinau, the 26-year-old graphic designer assures that the path to enter the EU is long and with few guarantees; and that the ties with Moscow are quite powerful. I dont like politics very much, but now we have seen how the gas problem affects us, he says. Yunuspecova was one of the tens of thousands of Moldovans who have left the country, expelled by the economic crisis and low salaries (the average salary is around 350 euros per month). Although after some time in the Baltics he decided to return and seek opportunities at home, he tells in Russian. Romanian is the official language of the country, and is spoken by four-fifths of its inhabitants (according to 2014 data), but Russian is also very widespread.

The EU has not given high hopes of membership to Moldova, which has yet to launch a series of substantial reforms in the economy, good governance and justice, to even be nominated as a candidate. But Brussels which this summer has delivered an unprecedented economic recovery package of some 600 million euros to Chisinau is trying to maintain close ties and collaboration with Moldova and the rest of the Eastern and Caucasian countries. Not only because of the benefits for the Union of maintaining democratic-minded neighbors in such a strategic area, but also to counteract the Russian strength, which has another important element of influence in Moldova, an anchor in a region that is turning increasingly to the West. : the Transnistria.

The region on the left bank of the Dniester River, recognized as part of Moldova by the international community (including Russia), declared itself independent in 1990. 31 years later, it is still trapped in the Cold War. After the brief war of 1992 in which hundreds of people died, Moscow financially supports Transnistria, where there was a majority Slavic population (Russians and Ukrainians), which has held several referenda for independence and to join Russia.

The territory has become a kind of theme park with Soviet aesthetics although it has nothing to do with communism and the vast majority of companies are in the hands of Viktor Gushan, the local oligarch, and his holding business Sheriff, And in something like a Russian protectorate, which maintains in the enclave several bases and more than 1,500 soldiers that the Kremlin defines as peacekeepers, who also watch over the old powder kegs of the USSR. It is a military contingent that worries many. And even more so now when Western intelligence warns of a possible new Russian aggression against Ukraine. A few months ago, President Sandu reiterated her request to Moscow for the soldiers to withdraw, but the Kremlin has warned that changes in the the status quo of the region could seriously destabilize regional security.

In Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria, in all official buildings the Russian flag flies along with that of this region. Tatiana Yegorova, 68, and her husband, Yuri, 80, dont even want to hear about it. You never know if there might be another conflict and with the peacekeepers we feel safer, says Yegorova, a retired programmer. In the enclave, which in Soviet times hosted a large part of the industry installed in the republic, there is also the main power station of Moldova. Its multi-million dollar debt for the gas that feeds it is one of the points in conflict between Chisinau and Gazprom. And the price of gas is cheaper in Transnistria than in other parts of the country: one ruble to nine, the Yegorovs say. In the living room of their apartment, next to the shelves overflowing with a large collection of Russian classics that Yegorov appreciates so much, the couple assures that there are people from Chisinau who spend the winter in Transnistria, about 90 minutes by car, by energy prices. A narrative that local television (in the hands, like everything else of the owner of the holding Sheriff) and also the Russian comment regularly, although the Yegorovs dont know anyone in that situation.

In Moldova, points out Ana Mihailov, director of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in the eastern country, a vision of development and a rethinking of the economic model are needed. Thanks to European funds and loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Chisinau has undergone a thorough facelift, has renovated many buildings and is working on improving the roads of the country, still eminently rural.

But if achieving macroeconomic stability and the painful transition from state-dominated economies to new paths has been challenging, eradicating endemic corruption is even more challenging, experts say. Moldova ranked 115 out of 180 in Transparency Internationals corruption perception index in 2020 (with number one being the least corrupt). It is also a challenge to increase trust in the institutions of a citizenry traumatized by scandals such as the one known as the robbery of the century, in which more than 1,000 million dollars (the equivalent of an eighth of gross domestic product) vanished. the countrys top three banks in 2014, causing an unprecedented crisis. Moldovan justice has already indicted several politicians and businessmen for this scandal; and now he is looking for the oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, one of the countrys strong men, a great donor to the Democratic Party and who left the country a few years ago, in full scandal.

Nicu Popescu, an analyst at the European Council on International Relations, believes that it was mainly his intransigent speech against corruption that gave Maia Sandus party its significant victory, which accumulated votes from pro-EU people and also from voters without specific political preferences but deeply. tired of constant scandals. The Action and Solidarity Executive has also launched a technological development plan.

The engineer Anatoli Golovco assures that the growing sector of the new technologies can be one of the strengths of the country. Another of our advantages is relations with Russia, we could be a bridge, says Golovco, a university professor and businessman, in a restaurant in Chisinau, under the gaze of his wife, Irina, a specialized translator who has retrained as a stylist. Pragmatic, the couple also speak enthusiastically of the Sandu government and its anti-corruption program at all levels, from the one that led to the robbery of the century to the bites of doctors or middle-class officials. We have lacked a vision of the country, we are still building ourselves, says Irina. Changes take time, sometimes you dont see the quick result, but its there, they are here to stay, he concludes.

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European Union: Moldova moves closer to the EU despite pressure from the Kremlin | International - Market Research Telecast

On 2 December 2021, the Council adopted Council Decision (CFSP) 2021/21251 amending Council Decision 2012/642/CFSP.

The Council Decision adds 17 persons and11 entities to the list of persons and entities subject to restrictive measures set out in the Annex to Decision2012/642/CFSP.

The Candidate Countries The Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Albania2, and the EFTA countries Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, members of the European Economic Area, align themselves with this Council Decision.

They will ensure that their national policies conform to this Council Decision.

The European Union takes note of this commitment and welcomes it.

1Published on 02.12.2021 in the Official Journal of the European Union no. L 430 I, p.162The Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Albania continue to be part of the Stabilisation and Association Process.

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Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on the alignment of certain countries concerning restrictive measures in view...