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In May 2020, ECDC produced a set of short-term forecasts of the expected number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalised cases (subdivided into general hospital wards and intensive care units). Updated forecasts were published in September 2020. In this report we present slightly longer-term projections for each country, up until 25 December 2020.

Following widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries and the United Kingdom (UK) over several weeks, the COVID-19 epidemic reached a peak in most of these countries in April or early May 2020. Following the implementation of non-pharmaceutical measures aimed at reducing contact rates between people, the number of confirmed cases and associated morbidity and mortality diminished sharply. In most countries, the intensity of these measures was subsequently lightened. By late October 2020, a resurgence of cases was observed in EU/EEA countries and the UK. As this was accompanied by increased hospital and ICU admissions and deaths the increase is considered to be a consequence of increased transmission, not solely increased testing rates. As a result, many countries have taken steps to re-introduce more stringent control measures to once again reduce the contact rate between people.

Mathematical modelling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and associated COVID-19 disease is used to assess the potential progression of the epidemic within a population and to inform decision-making on potential interventions to ensure public health. The methodology inherently facilitates the quantification of uncertainty associated with these estimations and projections. In May 2020, ECDC produced a set of short-term forecasts of the expected number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalised cases (subdivided into general hospital wards and intensive care units). Updated forecasts were published in September 2020.

In this report we present slightly longer-term projections for each country, up until 25 December 2020. We continue to model a baseline status quo scenario, assuming all control measures in place in early November 2020 will be continued until the end of the projection period. However, we also include an alternative scenario which illustrates the potential impact on the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths if the population returned to the behaviour they practised on 1 April 2020. We also illustrate the potential impact on hospitalisation rates if recently-implemented response measures are lifted before Christmas. The model is based on the epidemiological data and scientific evidence available at the time of publication. Further developments are anticipated as new information andepidemiological data become available.

The model was developed at ECDC and applied at a national level for EU/EEA countries and the UK. Mathematical models provide a helpful approach for quantifying uncertainty but their output should be interpreted and appraised in light of both the underlying assumptions and the completeness and potential bias of the data used to parameterise and calibrate them.

An assessment of the potential trajectory of disease and mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the most appropriate response strategies, should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the specific epidemiological situation in each country, using modelling projections in context.

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Updated projections of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK - EU News

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In the event of a no-deal Brexit, EU citizens' residencyrights may no longer be protected by primary legislation. The EUSettlement Scheme (EUSS) will afford eligible citizens a newimmigration status, and subsequently the right to remain in the UKafter Brexit.

EU, European Economic Area (EEA)* and Swiss citizens ('EUcitizens') wishing to remain in the UK after Brexit will berequired to apply to the EUSS for either settled or pre-settledstatus. This includes family members of those from the EU, EEA, orSwitzerland, EU citizens married to British citizens.

Successful applicants will be granted either settled orpre-settled status based on established criteria. Those applicantswho are granted settled status can reside in the UK for so long asthey wish and may even be able to apply for UK citizenship. Thosewho get pre-settled status can remain in the UK for five years, andthen apply for settled status after 5 years' continuousresidence. Both statuses will be awarded the right to work in theUK, use the NHS for free enroll in education or continue studying,access public funds where they are so eligible and travel freely inand out of the UK.

Under the EUSS, people who don't apply will have noimmigration status, making them vulnerable to removal.

EU citizens who relocated to the UK before it joined the EU in1973 will likely have 'indefinite leave to remain'. Theseindividuals need not apply to the EUSS, but may choose to do so.Individuals who work in the UK but do not live there ('FrontierWorkers') also need not apply.

The deadline for applying is 30th June 2021.

The deadline for close family members living overseas to jointheir respective family members in the UK is 31 December 2020.

In order to obtain settled status, EU, EEA and Swiss citizensmust provide proof of having lived in the UK, the Channel Islandsor the Isle of Man for at least 6 months in any 12-month period for5 consecutive years (unless a valid permanent residence document,or valid indefinite leave to remain in or enter the UK is held).Those with less than five years' residence can acquirepre-settled status, which can later be converted into settledstatus.

At the time of publication, it is unknown what the impact willbe on Gibraltarian citizens, or whether a work permit process willbe implemented. Individuals who feel their immigration status maybe affected by the above provisions are encouraged to seek advicein order to safeguard their rights of residence post-Brexit.

NOTES

*The EEA includes EU countries and Iceland, Liechtenstein andNorway.

FURTHER READING

EU Settlement Scheme

Apply to the EU Settlement Scheme (settled andpre-settled status)

If you would like further information please contact EmmaLejeune at emma.lejeune@isolas.gi or HarrietAlmeida at harriet.almeida@isolas.gi

The content of this article is intended to provide a generalguide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be soughtabout your specific circumstances.

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The AFI Silver Theatre and Cultural Centerhas announced the complete slate of films presented online for the 2020 AFI European Union Film Showcase, which will take place December 220.

Now in its 33rd year, the Showcase, which typically takes place at the historic AFI Silver Theatre and Cultural Center in Silver Spring, is one of the largest and long-running showcases of European cinema in the United States, according to a release from the Theatre. While the AFI Silver Theatre remains temporarily closed, this years Showcase has been re-imagined as a virtual event set to highlight 48 films representing 25 EU member states, including award winners, regional box office hits, debut works by up-and-coming talents and new works by leading auteurs, plus 12 U.S. and North American premieres, and seven submissions for this years Academy Award for Best International Feature Film. More than half of the titles in the Showcase will be available to view online from anywhere in the United States.

This years AFI European Union Film Showcase opens on December 2 with Csar winner Martin Provosts (SRAPHINE, THE MIDWIFE, VIOLETTE) big-hearted feminist comedy HOW TO BE A GOOD WIFE, starring Juliette Binoche as a buttoned-up finishing school headmistress caught up in the revolutionary spirit of May 1968. The Closing Selection, scheduled to coincide with the 250th anniversary of Ludwig van Beethovens birth, is German director Niki Steins sweeping Beethoven biopic LOUIS VAN BEETHOVEN, starring Tobias Moretti (THE DARK VALLEY, THE GERMAN LESSON, A HIDDEN LIFE) and Anselm Bresgott (THE MOST BEAUTIFUL GIRL IN THE WORLD) as the great composer.

Moviegoers can find more information and tickets at the AFI Silver website.

Photo: Embassy of Poland U.S. / Twitter

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AFI Silver Kicks Off an All-Virtual European Union Film Showcase Next Week - Source of the Spring

24 November 2020

Safecall

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Safecall and Beyond Governance team up to co author a whitepaper explaining what the new EU Whistleblowing Directive is andhow it effects business' within the EU and UK.

On October 7th 2019 the Council of the EU formally adopted a setof principals intended to set a minimum standard of protection forwhistleblowers across all EU member states.

At a high-level, member states must;

Member states have until December 2021 to adopt the new rulesinto their national legislation. The precise implementation ofthese rules will vary between member states. 10 of the 27 memberstates, and indeed the UK, already have some whistleblowerprotections within their national legislation, and some memberstates may choose to further enhance protections forwhistleblowers.

The content of this article is intended to provide a generalguide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be soughtabout your specific circumstances.

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The European Union will seek a sweeping overhaul of key patents that have fueled court battles between car makers and technology companies, the EUs technology chief said Wednesday.

Margrethe Vestager said regulators will consider reforms to further improve the framework in place for standard-essential patents and work on industry-led initiatives to reduce frictions and litigation that has dogged industries such as cars seeking to add communications technology, she told a Wednesday press conference.

The EU move could help resolve lengthy legal battles, such as Nokia Oyjs effort to get Daimler AG to pay more for mobile technology used in cars. Companies often seek court help to determine whether certain technology patents are valid and how much should be paid for licensing technology seen as essential for an industry. The EU has often been asked to weigh in on how much is fair for key technology.

Read more | First EU citizens may be vaccinated against Covid-19 by December end

Theres quite a lot of litigation back and forth and in the short-term we would want to push for industry to figure out how to set up foras to enable discussions and mediation so that maybe to a bigger degree it can be solved out of court, Vestager said.

The current system to set up so-called standard essential patents deemed key to certain technology is not very transparent, she said. This is why we will consider a very close consultation with anyone involved whether we should set up a third-party essential reality check so someone outside of your business can rule on whether a parent is really important or not.

Its important that there be broad agreement in an industry on the right patents for an essential patent instead of many, she said.

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