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Part of the problem is sheer complexity. There will be 10 parallel tracks of negotiations involving a team of 100 on the British side alone. The first round will run from Monday to Thursday of next week in Brussels, with the teams reconvening in London on March 18. At that rate, there will be time for only half a dozen rounds before Britain takes stock of the progress.

Moreover, some of the early sticking points like the European Unions access to British fishing grounds are going to be the most contentious. There is also growing tension over whether Mr. Johnson is quietly reneging on the status of Northern Ireland in the withdrawal agreement.

British officials say there will be no need for checks of goods flowing from Britain to Northern Ireland since Northern Ireland remains part of the British customs territory. But under the terms of the agreement with Brussels, the North will also adhere to European Union regulations. This hybrid status, experts say, makes it impossible for there to be no border checks.

Adding to the fears of a bitter negotiation, Mr. Johnson reshuffled his cabinet to stack it with hard-line Brexiteers. He replaced the Northern Ireland secretary, Julian Smith, who almost quit last year when Mr. Johnson threatened a no-deal Brexit, with Brandon Lewis, who is viewed as more compliant.

Sajid Javid, the chancellor of the Exchequer who voted to stay in the European Union in 2016, was forced out in a power struggle with 10 Downing Street. Analysts say that his successor, Rishi Sunak, is likely to put up less resistance to a confrontation with Brussels.

Some analysts chalk up the fighting words to an opening gambit. Britain and the European Union, they say, both have a strong incentive to come to terms. During the withdrawal talks with Brussels, Mr. Johnson showed an ability to pivot seamlessly from confrontation to compromise.

Yet other experts note that Mr. Johnsons ultimate motives remain something of a mystery. He has yet to speak in detail about what kind of Brexit he wants. Some note that the disruption of failing to make a deal, while indisputably bad, would not be magnitudes worse than the bare-bones deal that Mr. Johnson says, for now, that he is seeking.

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Britain and the E.U. Enter Trade Talks, Acrimoniously - The New York Times

Feb 27th 2020

WASHINGTON, DC

IF THE TRUMP administrations America is the bully of the global trading system, the European Union is the finger-wagging school prefect. Instead of threatening tariffs, its leaders have called for countries to play fairly. As a trade war has raged between America and China, the EU suggested a rules-based solution. When the Trump administration wrecked the system of solving disputes at the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the EU led the search for a fix. As the worlds biggest exporter of services and second only to China for goods, it has a sizeable stake in preserving order.

Enter Phil Hogan, the EUs burly trade commissioner since December 2019. The EU is still a stickler for rules and the multilateralism that Mr Hogan says is in our DNA. But he wants to wield a bigger stick. We have to stand up for our rights more assertively and aggressively, in my view, he tells The Economist. By this he means defending the EU against unfair trading practices. The challenges range from concerns about Chinas state-led system of capitalism to fears that the EUs trading partners are not living up to their commitments.

Part of his brief involves continuing efforts to rescue the system by which the WTO solves disputes. Meanwhile he will have to manage the tense transatlantic relationship. If the job was not daunting enough, he will help negotiate what he hopes will be an amicable trade deal with Britain.

Mr Hogans reputation as a canny politician willing to make tough decisionshis nickname in Irish politics was the enforcer suggests that he may be right for the job. On behalf of his home county of Kilkenny, where he entered Irish politics at the age of 22, he haggled effectively (for example, ensuring that the regions salt depot was in Kilkenny, partly so that in case of ice the local roads would be salted first). He is no flat tyre, as one Leinster admirer puts it. Later he drew controversy when in 2011, as Irelands Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government, he was put in charge of introducing unpopular water charges. It damaged his reputation. But as a consolation prize, the Irish government backed him as the EUs agriculture commissioner.

His experience over the following five years meant that he became intimately acquainted with the EUs most sensitive spots. Alongside Cecilia Malmstrm, then the EUs trade commissioner, he boasts of concluding no fewer than 15 trade agreements. According to some of the negotiators who were on the opposite side of the table, while he could be both charming and funny, his strategies to avoid giving concessions could be deeply frustrating. In some cases, he simply declined to show up.

The American government may roll its eyes at the talk of a tougher EU trade regime. Some in America could accuse the bloc of being too timid about using tariffs to get its own way with trading partners, and too weak to overcome the protectionist instincts of its member states. They ask why, if the EU is so concerned about the demise of the WTOS dispute-settlement system, it ignored Americas complaints about it for so long? Where, they ask, was the EU while America was filing WTO disputes against China? Tough talk is cheap, results will require action.

Mr Hogans first priority is to add muscle to the EUs defences. From May 1st he will oversee a new chief trade-enforcement officer, as well as new enforcement unit dedicated to making sure that existing trade deals are implemented properly. The European Commission is proposing new rules that would sharpen the EUs teeth, including an amendment to enforcement regulations that would allow tariffs against other governments blocking the WTOs dispute-settlement system. On the topic of the WTOs appellate body, Mr Hogan acknowledges some of the American concerns, but adds that he would love to see detailed proposals for solutions to the problems from the Trump administration.

Whether he can maintain stable trade relations with America is another matter. He raised hackles in September after an interview in which he promised to teach Mr Trump the error of his ways. Then in a meeting in January he seems to have clashed with Robert Lighthizer, the United States Trade Representative. If he tries to bring more assertiveness into the EUs side of the transatlantic relationship it could end badly. Stephen Vaughn, an ex-colleague of Mr Lighthizer, warns that attempts to play hardball could backfire.

The Americans want, above all, broad access to the EUs agricultural marketmore than the lobsters, scallops and nuts that are on offer. (Seafood technically counts as an industrial product.) But as Mr Hogan knows well from his previous job, anything much broader than dismantling a few non-tariff agricultural barriers is unpalatable to member states.

He remains upbeat about the transatlantic relationship. I think that were in a better place now than we were some months ago, he says. On February 14th a tariff announcement related to a dispute over aircraft subsidies was milder than expected. A reduction in car tariffs could be on the table, he adds, if member states agree. His challenge is not just to get trade partners to play by the rules. It is to get his own side on board, too.

This article appeared in the Finance and economics section of the print edition under the headline "Hulk Hogan"

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The European Unions trade policy will involve some tough negotiations - The Economist

Tourist wearing a protective respiratory mask tours outside the Colosseo monument (Colisee, Coliseum) in downtown Rome on February 28, 2020 amid fear of Covid-19 epidemic.

Andreas Solaro | AFP | Getty Images

The coronavirus pounded the European Union this week with the biggest test of its political, economic and social fabric since the refugee crisis of five years ago.

The ripples from the European migrant crisis of 2015 continue until today with its dual shock to the EU's unity and domestic politics. It triggered a wave of populism and nationalism, the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU, and Germany's political fragmentation behind the weakening of Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Most dramatically, the Turkish government this week backed off from its commitment made in 2016, in return for 6 billion euros in EU funds, to prevent Syrian refugees from entering Europe. That followed a Thursday airstrike by Russian-backed Syrian forces in Syria's Idlib province, killing at least 33 Turkish troops.

Even as Turkey ordered police, coast guard and border security officials to allow would-be refugees to pass into the EU, Bulgaria responded by sending an extra 1,000 troops to the frontier with Turkey and Greek police launched smoke grenades at one crossing to dissuade migrants.

Containing pathogens is a much different business than managing waves of refugees. However, what unites the two issues is how dramatically the European Union's response will shape public attitudes about the institution's relevance, responsiveness, and effectiveness at a crucial historic moment.

The impact of coronavirus on Europe's future has the potential to be even more significant than the migrant crisis, particularly as it unfolds in almost biblical fashion atop a plague of other European maladies.

They include, but by no means are limited to: economic slowdown and possible recession (made more likely by coronavirus), the rise of populism and nationalism (stoked as well by the virus), disagreements about how to handle trade talks with a departing United Kingdom (which start Monday), internecine fights over the European budget, and ongoing German leadership crisis and French social upheaval.

The coronavirus morphed this past week into an increasingly global phenomenon that experts agree can no longer be contained. The hit to stock markets was $6 trillion, the biggest weekly fall since the 2008 financial crisis. By Friday, the WHO reported more than 78,000 cases and more than 2,790 deaths ion China and 70 deaths in 52 other countries.

In Europe, what began as northern Italian phenomenon where there have been more than 800 infections has now reached Spain, Greece, Croatia, France, the UK, Switzerland, Romania, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, North Macedonia, and San Marino.

Italians have cancelled their carnival celebration in Venice and Milan Fashion Week. European hotels in Austria, France, and the Spanish Canary Islands have been locked down in quarantine.

On 28, February 2020, migrants and refugees from Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan boarded buses bound for the Greek border in a parking lot in the Zeytinburnu suburb of Istanbul, Turkey.

Diego Cupolo | NurPhoto | Getty Images

Though individual EU member states set their own health policies, the EU is responsible for coordinating response to the disease and providing advice regarding its still-open borders.

In most countries, citizens turn to national leaders for response in such situations. In a borderless European Union, which prides itself on free movement of people and travel, crisis response becomes a test of the institution itself and the philosophies behind this unique grouping of 27 member states with about 445 million citizens and $16 trillion GDP.

Thus, much attention this week was paid to whether and how individual EU countries or the EU itself might abandon the 1985 Schengen Agreement that brought 26 of its nations into a passport-free zone of travel.

This has been one of the greatest sources of EU pride and identity. At the same time, the agreement is designed to be far more flexible at moments of crisis than is generally known. The rules allow for the temporary reintroduction of border controls for reasons that include migrant surges, terror attacks and crucial now health emergencies.

"Paradoxically," argues Benjamin Haddad, director of the Atlantic Council's Future Europe Initiative, "one might argue that moments like these are made for the European Union."

That's because, Haddad explains, such moments require the level of technical cooperation and shared decision-making among countries that is the very basis of the European Union. The EU acts as a regulatory superpower through the "normative" power of its trade deals and other instruments that impose standards, which often become global, in areas including digital, health, environmental, and all manner of industrial sectors.

Yet, if imposing regulatory norms is an EU strength, rapid response at times of crisis remains a weakness.

When it comes to scenarios such as the refugee crisis or coronavirus outbreak, member states often take back control, as they did in 2015.The coronavirus will give new ammunition to those who want national border controls tightened or restored.

Marine Le Pen, the right-wing French nationalist, has called for border closures with Italy. In Switzerland, not an EU member but part of the border-free zone, right-wing political leader Lorenzo Quadri said it was "alarming" that the open borders' "dogma" would be considered a priority at such a time.

Health officials in Trieste airport measure the body temperature of incoming passengers. Trieste, 28th of February 2020.

Jacopo Landi | NurPhoto | Getty Images

As the number of coronavirus cases grows in Europe, it seems unlikely that EU and national officials will be able to avoid the greater imposition of border controls. On Sunday evening, for example, Austria halted some train connections at the Brenner pass with Italy after officials reported that two passengers had been stopped who were infected with the virus.

If the EU and its member states respond smoothly and in a coordinated fashion, the coming days could reinforce the collective value of the European Union.

Should the EU appear ineffective as the virus spreads, that will color European attitudes for decades to come.

In his classic 1945 novel The Plague, the French writer Albert Camus writes, "I have no idea what's awaiting me, or what will happen when this all ends. For the moment I know this: there are sick people and they need curing."

"The virus, alas, has so far been tackled by a divided continent, just like the plague isolates people in Camus's plot," Gianni Riotta, a visiting professor at Princeton University, tells Judy Dempsey at Carnegie Europe. "Austria scrapped trains from Italy, Italy broke with the European Union, too hastily grounding flights from China, only to see the disease spread faster with passengers arriving unchecked from other airports."

It's not too early to ask whether Europe itself will fall victim to the virus or emerge healthier from the challenge.

Excerpt from:
Op-Ed: Coronavirus could be a bigger test for the EU than the refugee crisis - CNBC

KASTANIES, Greece With tear gas clouding the air, thousands of migrants trying to reach Europe clashed with riot police officers on the Greek border with Turkey on Saturday morning, signaling a new and potentially volatile phase in the migration crisis.

The scene at Kastanies, a normally quiet Greek border checkpoint into Turkey, rapidly became a tense confrontation with the potential to worsen as dozens of Greek security officers and soldiers fired canisters of tear gas. Riot police officers with batons, shields and masks confronted the migrants through the wire, yelling at them to stay back.

About 4,000 migrants of various nationalities were pressed against the Turkish side of the border. An additional 500 or so people were trapped between two border posts, but still on the Turkish side, at the long and heavily militarized land border that has turned into the flash point of the tug of war between Turkey and Europe.

Some people had climbed onto the limbs of trees or were crouching against the thick loops of barbed wired placed on the ground by the Greek Army. They cheered, booed and screamed to be let through.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey declared on Saturday that he had opened his countrys borders for migrants to cross into Europe, saying that Turkey could no longer handle the numbers fleeing the war in Syria.

What did we do yesterday? he said in a televised speech in Istanbul. We opened the doors. His comments were his first to acknowledge what he had long threatened to do: push some of the millions of Syrian refugees and other migrants in Turkey toward Europe in order to cajole the European Union to heed Turkeys demands.

He accused European leaders of not keeping their promises to help Turkey bear the load of millions of Syrians.

Mr. Erdogan has also called for European support for his military operations against a Russian and Syrian offensive in northern Syria that has displaced at least a million more Syrians toward Turkeys border. He has also sought more support for the displaced and the 3.6 million Syrian refugees already in Turkey.

The migrants at the border had heeded Mr. Erdogans call and rushed to Turkeys borders with Europe, some on Friday taking free rides on buses organized by Turkish officials. But once at Europes doorstep, they were met with a violent crackdown.

Migrants were also heading by sea to the Turkish coast, from where they hope to reach Greek islands, facilitated by the Turkish authorities, but officials reported few arrivals Saturday, perhaps because of poor weather at sea.

The mini-exodus was live-streamed by Turkish state television in scenes reminiscent of the 2015 migrant crisis that Europe solved only with Turkeys help. Syrians shared information, some joking about the Turkish facilitation, suggesting they should publish the telephone numbers of people smugglers, too.

The International Organization for Migration, a United Nations agency, said that as many as 10,000 were making their way through Turkey to the northern land borders, in hopes of reaching Europe.

The Greek authorities said on Saturday that they had intercepted some 4,000 people attempting to cross at various spots of the 50-mile border overnight, and that only a few had been successful and made it to Greece.

The frontier is heavily militarized on both sides, and is closed off with barbed wire only for about seven miles. It runs through fields, valleys and forests, and is partly demarcated by the Evros River and its delta, where migrants have long died because of choppy waters.

Even if the Greek officials succeed in holding back the hundreds at the small border chokehold in Kastanies, it will be hard to secure the entire border as migrants become dispersed and try their luck farther afield.

Most on the front line of the confrontation at the Kastanies crossing were men, but children were heard screaming farther back, and women were hanging on the side of the group stuck between the Turkish and Greek officials.

The ground was strewn with empty Turkish tear-gas canisters, rocks and burned-out tree branches, and the Greek guards pledged a standoff for as long as it took into the cold night and beyond.

Greece came under an illegal, mass and orchestrated attempt to raze our borders and stood up protecting not only our frontiers, but those of Europe too, said Stelios Petsas, the Greek government spokesman. He added that 66 migrants had been arrested crossing the land border illegally, and none have anything to do with Idlib.

Our government is determined to do whatever it takes to protect our borders, he said.

Mr. Erdogans comments on Saturday came after Turkey suffered heavy losses from Russian or Syrian airstrikes in northwestern Syria on Thursday and as Turkey seeks American and European support for its Syrian operations. The death toll from the strikes has risen to 36, Mr. Erdogan said. More than 30 soldiers were wounded.

The Turkish leader has avoided accusing Russia directly of carrying out the airstrikes, and has spoken with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia by telephone. But he said Turkey was retaliating with strikes of its own, including on a Syrian chemical weapons site south of the city of Aleppo. Turkey has deployed thousands of troops in recent weeks into Idlib Province to try to stem the Russian-backed advance.

Mr. Erdogan is struggling to handle the growing crisis in Idlib, the last Syrian province held by the rebel forces his government has supported. Turkey has lost more than 50 soldiers in the past two months in Syria, which has angered many Turks, while domestic resentment toward Syrian refugees has grown amid an economic downturn.

The Turkish president called on Mr. Putin to get out of our way in Idlib and allow Turkey to push back Syrian forces to positions agreed upon under a 2018 de-escalation agreement.

Matina Stevis-Gridneff reported from Kastanies, Greece, and Carlotta Gall from Istanbul. Hwaida Saad contributed reporting from Beirut.

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Erdogan Says, We Opened the Doors, and Clashes Erupt as Migrants Head for Europe - The New York Times

The European Union considers todays conclusion of the Afghanistan-U.S. Joint Statement for Peace and the settlement between the U.S and the Taliban as important first steps towards a comprehensive peace process, with intra-Afghan negotiations at its core. The current opportunity to move towards peace should not be missed. The European Union expects these Afghan-owned and Afghan-led negotiations to start without delay in an inclusive manner and aiming at a lasting peace that could create an environment of security and stability for all Afghans. The continuation of a reduction in violence and its expansion into a ceasefire constitute a necessary condition for trust between the negotiating parties.

The European Union stands ready to facilitate and support the peace process with the aim of preserving and building upon the political, economic and social achievements of the people of Afghanistan since 2001, which should be irreversible. The conflict needs a political solution in which human rights, including womens rights, are respected and common grievances are addressed. The European Union stresses the importance of an inclusive peace process with all political factions, where notably Afghan women and minorities as well as the civil society, are represented in a meaningful manner. Respect for the constitutional order and rule of law is paramount during the process.

In this crucial time, unity is essential to master the challenging tasks ahead and for the long-term future of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The European Union calls upon all actors to unite forces for the coming period. It is vital that all people of Afghanistan feel represented in the next government and in peace negotiations. This would help address grievances, including in the context of the recent electoral process, and promote reconciliation. The EU calls on all stakeholders to put the interests of the nation above all other considerations, as the collective responsibility of all Afghan political forces.

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Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on current political developments in Afghanistan and the prospects for peace - EU News