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The European members of the 17+1 group are dissatisfied with their "privileged" relationship with Beijing. Their trade deficit with China (US$ 75 billion) is growing. Chinese investments are going mostly to the wealthiest countries of the Old Continent. Czech President Zeman slams the Belt and Road Initiative. This should be a warning for Italy.

Rome (AsiaNews) European leaders of the 17+1 group are dissatisfied with their privileged relationship with China, this according to a report by the Prague-based China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE).

The 17+1 is an informal forum of countries that includes China and 17 countries in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe, including 12 European Union member states.

Beijing is using the 17+1 group as a platform to promote the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a pet project of Chinese President Xi Jinping designed to boost his country as the worlds main trade hub. However, the much-vaunted cooperation with China is not bearing the desired results.

The European members of the 17+1 are increasingly irritated, their economic gains are modest; yet, Chinas influence in the region has grown considerably. The most troubling aspect is economic. The trade deficit of the European 17+1 members has widened significantly. The CHOICE study reveals that in 2018 it reached US$ 75 billion.

Although Chinese investment has increased, slightly exceeding US billion in 2017, it is concentrated in four countries: Czechia (Czech Republic), Poland, Slovakia and Hungary.

What is more, the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies noted that eastern Europe received 2 per cent of total Chinese investments in Europe in 2018 and 3 per cent in 2019, with the largest share, 53 per cent, going to northern Europe.

Beijing's increasingly aggressive attitude is especially resented. Last year, Lithuania severely reprimanded the staff of the Chinese Embassy, suspected of threatening Lithuanian citizens who protested in Vilnius in favour of Hong Kongs pro-democracy movement.

In addition, Poland and Czechia have raised doubts about the technology of Huawei's 5G, the Chinese multinational accused by the United States of spying on behalf of China.

The European Union views China as a partner but also as a "systemic rival". Many European leaders suspect Beijing is using the BRI initiative to weaken the Union, trying to get the European 17+1 members to align with its geopolitical agenda.

The groups annual summit, originally set for 15 April, was postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak. For some leaders, this is not a major issue. Czech President Milo Zeman had already decided not to attend even before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Zeman wanted to turn his country into an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" for Chinese investment in Europe, but had to accept the fact that, despite Beijing's proclamations, Chinese money always goes to western Europe, and not on his side of the old Iron Curtain.

The displeasure of European 17+1 leaders runs counter to Italys cheerful embrace of China and Xis proposal to create a "health" Silk Road.

Despite the negative reaction of some allies (i.e. the United States), Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio has repeatedly emphasised the importance of last years cooperation agreement with Beijing, which facilitated the arrival of Chinese medical supplies to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

Conversely, others note that China also donated and sold medical equipment to EU members states (the majority) that have not formally joined the BRI initiative.

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CHINA EUROPEAN UNION Wake-up call for Europe: cooperation with China is not working - AsiaNews

Eleven children trapped on Greek islands will be flown to Luxembourg next week, the first of a European Union migrant relocation scheme that highlights the uncertain fate of thousands.

The group will leave Chios and Lesbos for Luxembourg as part of an EU voluntary effort to help the most vulnerable quit Greeces desperately overcrowded refugee and migrant island camps.

They are expected to be the first to move since eight member states and Switzerland pledged last month to take in 1,600 unaccompanied minors.

They are boys and girls all under the age of 12 and will fly out next Wednesday, said Manos Logothetis, the Greek migration ministrys general secretary. This is a crucial first step, the start of a process that we hope can set an example, he told the Guardian.

In an ideal world they would leave tomorrow but there is the issue of getting through bureaucracy that is there to protect the children, meeting the criteria set by the member states and, of course, coronavirus.

The pandemic has complicated relocation plans, with flights cancelled and restrictions on the movement of officials working with refugees. One volunteer country, Croatia, lost a building it had planned to house the children in last months earthquake.

The virus has also required extra medical tests being conducted on the children in addition to those needed to help check their age. European commission officials, who are co-ordinating the scheme, have been urging recipient countries to carry out tests on arrival to avoid delays.

Greeces centre-right government, which has itself described the Aegean island facilities as ticking health bombs, has been pushing for resettlement of the children since September.

In an interview with the Guardian last month, the prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, said: We sent out a letter to all the member states and got zero response. Weve been pushing very hard for a long time on this issue.

On Wednesday, Berlin said it was willing to accept 350-500 children in the next few weeks, 50 of whom would be taken as a matter of urgency. But Birgit Sippel, a German Social Democrat MEP, who sits on the European parliaments home affairs committee, said the delay in Germany fulfilling its pledge was the result of a political game and reluctance among Christian Democrats in the governing grand coalition to act. Describing the number of 50 as ridiculous, she said it did not [send] a strong signal regarding solidarity from one of the biggest countries in Europe.

Even if the pandemic had caused problems with organising flights, the German government had, she pointed out, repatriated EU travellers from around the world. While welcoming the decision, Greek officials said the process would probably be further complicated by Berlins demand for the unaccompanied children to be exclusively girls below the age of 14.

Coming up with the perfect match isnt easy, said one official.

At the end of February, Unicef counted 5,463 unaccompanied migrant children in Greece, including 1,752 living in overcrowded reception centres on the islands. Since that date the number is likely to have increased, as people have continued to arrive either seeking asylum or better prospects. More than three-quarters of the unaccompanied children are from three countries: Afghanistan (44%), Pakistan (21%) and Syria (11%).

The UN childrens agency is urging volunteer member states not to impose conditions on the children they accept, but instead to follow criteria based on need, such as the childs age, health and any disabilities.

Aaron Greenberg, regional adviser for child protection at Unicef, said the organisation was concerned that host countries could apply sub-criteria, such as taking in only girls, under-14s or certain nationalities, which would be a problem as the majority of unaccompanied children are boys aged between 14 and 18.

We need collective action in supporting Greece to handle this situation over the medium term, Greenberg added. Migration levels have ticked down, but its not over. We are still seeing a large number of unaccompanied children coming through. We are relieving stress, but the stress could build back up again. We need a comprehensive European agenda that goes beyond the emergency.

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Migrant children on Greek islands to be flown to Luxembourg - The Guardian

"We modern civilizations, we too know that we are mortal.

We had heard tell of whole worlds vanished, of empires foundered with all their men and all their engines. (...). Edam, Nineveh, Babylon were vague and splendid names; the total ruin of these worlds, for us, meant as little as did their existence. But France, England, Russia... these too would be splendid names. (....) We are aware that a civilization has the same fragility as a life. The circumstances that could send the works of Keats and Baudelaire to join the works of Menander are no longer inconceivable; they are in the newspapers."

(Paul Valry, The Crisis of the Spirit), 1919)

The COVID-19 pandemic, as with each crisis affecting Europe, comes with its array of articles, podcasts and op-eds concerned with the same question: will it finally break the EU?

The current crisis is certainly a real test for Europe. It plays against the backdrop of existing tensions - uncertainty about European solidarity, East-West divide or the rise of populism to name a few - which it heightens. It provides an opportunity for authoritarians, as in Hungary, and reopens unresolved fundamental debates about fiscal solidarity, notably embodied by the much-needed coronabonds. It sees increased Chinese activism and disinformation prying apart Europeans while Americans - once "the best Europeans" as Konrad Adenauer remarked to Dean Acheson - are looking inward.

Yet, it is still puzzling to see commentators fall back on the "will the EU break?" line of enquiry. It sometimes almost seems to reflect some deep seated disbelief that such a strange political experiment survives.

Pundits wondered if the Eurozone debt crisis would lead to the dissolution of the European Union from 2011 to 2016. Of course, it could also have been the rejection of the European constitution in 2005. Or the migrants crisis in 2015 (or 2018 or 2020). Maybe populism and the Far Right? If not that, Brexit was surely the last straw? Or the Yellow Vest movement in France? Possibly a combination of all that? In 2016, the Wilson Center even surveyed the different arguments for the "fall of the House of the European Union."

Of course, I must hasten to add, I do not wish to pick upon anybody specifically. Titles are often more dramatic than the nuanced articles and many are phrased as questions rather than assertions. Catchy headlines are necessary to exist in a crowded media space. At the political level, dramatic pronouncements help sharpen the focus and spur action.

However, the European Union has now a pretty good track record of adapting to crises that should have broken it. If anything, it should be given the benefit of the doubt. It has managed to survive the 'No' vote in the 2005 referenda, the migrants or the debt crisis to name just a few. In over half a century, it has adapted to very different geopolitical conditions; from the early Cold War that saw its inception to the end of history of the 1990s and today's world.

Yet, if the EU has managed - more or less successfully - to survive these crises, it's not because it is an inevitable fact of history or thanks to some sort of special providence. It took leaders and thinkers to rally - or improvise - and find their way, often messily.

As Paul Valry exclaimed with regards to European civilization, we cannot take the EU for granted. Black swans do happen. Unforeseeable events change the course of history (think 9/11) and longstanding world players, like the USSR, disappear. Two months after Brexit, it would be foolish to suggest that the European Union cannot be profoundly affected by hitherto unthinkable outcomes.

There are many ways in which Europe could fail. European nations might be overrun by populism, fall into economic decline, be picked apart by rivals and competitors. The institutions of the European Union might see their budget and competences rolled back and become empty vessels for idle political discussions and byzantine comitology.

Yet, the most frightening failure would be to bury the idea of Europe, as well that of a transatlantic community, abandoned as a romantic concept that did not deliver in times of crisis. Populists are likely to ride the wave of hardships and revive the narrative of the border as a protection from foreign-born diseases to migrants and outsourcing.

In 1919, Paul Valery's main concern was the "Crisis of the Spirit" that would result from the war and the economic crash. "The military crisis may be over, he wrote- The economic crisis is still with us in all its force. But the intellectual crisis, being more subtle (...) will hardly allow us to grasp its true extent." Today, the intellectual and political fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic will likely be the biggest threat to Europe.

Saving the idea of Europe calls for insightful analysis that gives the public a measured perspective. This requires being wary of easy narratives, especially when they reinforce our pre-existing conceptions (as well as abstaining from easy tropes such as quoting philosophers worried about civilizational decline) but also being clear-eyed about specific risks and challenges.

Thus, if I have just one plea, it is the following: let's see the EU for what it is. A unique political project, successful in bringing peace and prosperity to Europe, incomplete, notably in terms of fiscal solidarity or geopolitical clout, fragile and to be defended, but also able to adapt and muddle through. Benevolent skepticism may yet be our best asset to see through the geopolitical implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Coronavirus is a real test for Europe. Don't bury the EU yet. View - Euronews

Such is the magnitude of the economic crash in France, that the country is beginning to run out of historical references to compare the crisis that is looming due to the coronavirus epidemic. As announced by the Bank of France on Wednesday, the economy, the second largest in the euro area, fell 6% during the first quarter of 2020 as a result of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the containment measures approved by the Elysium. And the account continues to get heavier: every fortnight of confinement, subtracts 1.5 points from GDP, the French banking institution has warned just 24 hours after the president, Emmanuel Macron, prepares to address the nation again and, in all probability, to announce a further extension of confinement. According to the Governor of France, Franois Villeroy de Galhau, this is the worst figure for GDP evolution since World War II and similar to that recorded during the protests of May 68. The Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, has already compared the situation even with the Great Recession after the crack 1929. German GDP, meanwhile, will fall 4.2% in 2020 and everything points to a 10% collapse in the second quarter. The two great locomotives of the European Union are in recession.

As if more graphics were needed, the Bank of France recalls that in its latest quarterly GDP growth forecast for the first three months of the year, published just a month ago, the projection was for growth of 0.1%. But the impact on the activity of the containment measures leads us to strongly revise our estimate of the quarterly variation in GDP in the first quarter, around -6%, he adds. We must go back to the second quarter of 1968, marked by the events of the month of May, to find a quarterly decline in activity of the same magnitude, stresses the Bank of France in reference to the fall of 5.3 at that time % of GDP, before rebounding strongly, yes, to 8%, in the third quarter of that year.

The problem is that this new crisis is global and the possibility of a comeback does not necessarily depend only on France. In an interview with the LCI station, Villeroy de Galhau has anticipated a very negative growth in France in 2020, although he has expressed his confidence that it should be positive in 2021, highlighting that for this he is helping employers and their employees , in order to be in a position to start growth faster when the containment measures end, stresses the Agence France Presse.

In this regard, the banker stressed that the country has the most generous unemployment system in Europe, fortunately the European and social model is there and it works, while he recalled that, on the contrary, the USA has registered 10 millions of new unemployed in just 15 days. The day before, the Labor Minister, Murielle Penicaud, revealed during a hearing by videoconference in the Senate that the number of workers who have taken part in the partial unemployment now reaches 5.8 million employees, one in four employees in the private sector . We are the only country with this level of partial unemployment, said Penicaud. A record level that, according to LCI, could cost up to 20,000 million euros in three months.

Not everyone seems to share the cautious optimism of the Governor of the Bank of France. A few days ago, I made a comparison with the great recession of 1929. I confirm it, he said Sunday in the Journal du Dimanche Minister Le Maire. This crisis is very violent. It is global since no continent is being fought and it will be durable. The difference from 1929 is that states are reacting quickly and strongly. But the impact will be massive, predicted just a few days ago the person responsible for avoiding the economic shipwreck of France, as he himself described it. The devastating economic figures for the country are known on the same day that the failure of EU ministers was confirmed, after 16 hours of negotiations, in their fourth attempt to give a joint response to the crisis that is causing the coronavirus.

The GDP of Germany will register a contraction of 4.2% in 2020 as a consequence of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the containment measures implemented, which will drag the German economy in the second quarter to a historical fall of 9, 8%, the deepest in the entire historical series and more than double the collapse recorded in the first quarter of 2009, the worst of the Great Recession in the country, according to the forecasts of the main German economic research institutes. Looking ahead to 2021, the five institutes (IFO in Munich, DIW in Berlin, IfW in Kiel, IWH in Halle and RWI in Essen) anticipate a strong rebound in Germanys GDP, with growth of 5.8%, although they warn of that its forecasts have considerable associated downside risks.

According to new academic estimates, the German GDP would have registered a 1.9% drop in the first quarter of 2020, which will worsen between April and June until a 9.8% collapse as a consequence of the confinement measures applied to contain the spread of the virus, which is the largest quarterly contraction in the German economy since data collection began in 1970. Experts anticipate a sharp rise in unemployment, with an increase of 236,000 unemployed compared to 2019, to 2.5 million, which would mean an unemployment rate of 5.5%, half a percentage point more than last year. Likewise, the public accounts of the largest European economy will suffer the impact of the recession and the announced stimulus measures, which will mean that Germany will close the year with a deficit of 4.7% of its GDP, compared to the surplus of 1.4% of 2019. It would be the first negative imbalance in the German budget since 2011.

Germany is in a good position to face the economic collapse and return in the medium term to the levels it would have reached without the crisis, stressed the head of economic forecasts at the Economic Research in Munich (Ifo), Timo Wollmershuser, for who the favorable situation of public finances allows Berlin to implement far-reaching measures to cushion the impact of the crisis on companies and families.

Looking ahead to 2021, the five institutes are confident that Germanys GDP will rebound strongly, with an expansion of 5.8%, which will allow to reduce unemployment again, to an unemployment rate of 5.3%, and balance budgets , thus returning next year to zero black. However, they warn of the considerable downside risks to these forecasts, since the pandemic could take longer than expected to be controlled and efforts to revive the economy are less effective than expected, without ruling out that they may be necessary in the future. additional containment measures, which could result in further production closings and disruptions, increasing the likelihood of financial distortions and business failures beyond the States support capacity.

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Coronavirus: The two largest economies in the European Union are sinking into recession | Economy - The Union Journal

European Union member states have been debating on whether the bloc should agree on issuing new financial instruments to help countries affected with the coronavirus pandemic cope with the economic fallout of the outbreak. A total of nine EU member states, including Italy and Spain, have asked Brussels to issue joint European debt with different securities on a temporary basis to help eurozone economies cope with shut factories and business. CNBC reporter Sivia Amaro said: "Asking for this instrument are essentially the most indebted nations, such as Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and France.

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"They are arguing that the coronavirus is hitting every country in a similar way, which is different from what happened in the debt crisis of 2011.

"Then you hear The Netherlands and Germany asking the others to be cautious.

"They are quite sceptical about joining their debt with countries that are seen at a higher risk of default, really.

"At the same time, one European diplomat said the European Union should not use all the instruments this week because we dont know how long the coronavirus crisis will actually last.

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"So you need to save some ammunition now to save at a later stage."

Ms Amaro said sources close to EU negotiators are not expecting member states to come to an agreement, saying member states have a "deep divide" separating them.

She continued: "There is a deep divide in Europe at this stage.

"On the one hand, you have countries who want to mitigate the economic impact of the virus. On the other hand, though, you see other member states saying there is no urgency in developing new fiscal instruments.

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"This conversation is not new but the coronavirus is resurfacing this discussion and adding pressure on leaders to support their economies.

"We saw nine European countries saying that its time to issue joint European debt - you can call it corona bond, you can call it euro bond.

"Essentially the idea is that this debt instrument would include different European securities. The specific thing about it is that it would be a temporary tool to deal with the coronavirus outbreak."

Italy and Spain have become two of the most affected EU member states, with the southern European countries forced to cope with 97,689 and 85,195 cases respectively.

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The Italian Government placed the whole country in lockdown nearly three weeks ago and is expected to extend containment measures well into April.

The number of deaths recorded by Rome fell for the second day in a row on Sunday, down to 756 from 889 on Saturday and a dramatic 969 recorded on Friday.

Italian officials warned if the restrictions had not been enforced, the death toll could have been even higher than it is at the moment.

Civil Protection head Angelo Borrelli said: "Without these measures, we would be seeing far worse numbers and our health service would be in a far more dramatic state.

"We would have been in an unsustainable situation."

Spain, however, saw the number of COVID-19 sufferers increase exponentially over the past two weeks, with Madrid reporting 838 people have died in the past 24 hours.

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EU on brink: Berlin and rich nations in bloc REJECT plea for help from COVID-19 hit states - Express.co.uk