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Rebecca Brambilla

Policy Researcher at Politheor

Rebecca has a B.A. in Political Science and Sociology from the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitt in Munich. Her main academic interest lies in the fields of Foreign Affairs, International Development and Global Governance. During her studies, Rebecca worked as an intern for the social start-up Serlo Education in Munich and for the Blossom Hill Foundation in New Canaan, Connecticut. Passionate about human rights and global development, she has volunteered for local NGOs in Kenya, India and the United States.

Forget about foreign conflict, instability and terrorism: cyber security attacks are quickly becoming the biggest threat to European democracies. Over the past ten years, we have witnessed a steady and worrisome increase in online criminal activity, with cases of theft, espionage and data extraction on the rise. What were once merely disruptive threats have now become destructive attacks. Dealing with cyber attacks will require more than legislative proposals and mainstreaming cybersecurity.

The main targets so far have been businesses, alongside banking, telecom and defence, but with the 2016 US election, the focus of cyber attacks seems to have shifted towards governments and national parties. The state-sponsored cyber attacks against the Democratic Party and the subsequent leak of stolen information reflect a trend towards highly-publicised, overt campaigns designed to destabilize and disrupt organisations and sovereign countries.

European countries are no stranger to episodes of software piracy either: case in point, the hacking of French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macrons campaign allegedly perpetrated by APT 28, a group linked to the Russian military intelligence, and the subsequent diffusion online of nine gigabytes of private data, hours before the French election. Four months before, at least ten members of the German Bundestag were also victim of an attempted cyber attack. Here the hackers used advertising on the Jerusalem Post website to spear-phish users and redirect them to a malicious site.

Both the DNC hacking and the cyber attacks on the German Parliament and on En Marche should be viewed as cautionary tales, especially since a number of European Union member states will be holding their general elections in the upcoming months, including Germany and Italy.

The efforts by foreign agents to destabilize elections should be met with readiness and resolve. Yet according to this years UN global cyber security index, most European countries do not have enough effective measures in place to counter this menace. Only two EU countries made the top ten: Estonia and, ironically, France.

The UN recommends implementing prevention and mitigation measures to reduce the risks posed by cyber-related threats. The EUs official cyber security strategy dates back to 2013 and, while it has had promising but not entirely satisfactory results, it undoubtedly needs updating.

After a mid-term review of the Digital Single Market strategy carried out at the beginning of 2017, the following suggestions pertaining cyber security within the EU were made: a review of the EU Cybersecurity Strategy by September 2017 and additional measures on cyber security standards. The Commission has additionally pledged 600 millions of EU investment for research and innovation in cyber security projects during the 2014-2020 period.

The United States have increased their budget for cyber security from 5.5$ billion in 2016 to 7$ billion in 2017, and are planning to invest 35$ billion in the next five years. It is safe to assume that other superpowers like China and Russia are doing the same.

It is now clear that the biggest threat many European nations face at the moment is foreign interference in their elections, which will inevitably undermine the democratic process. Cyber warfare should be viewed as a matter of national security, just as terrorism is. It is in the interest of European states and European institutions to be prepared to confront cyber attacks and to protect the civil society from them.

The funds allocated by the Commission for cyber infrastructure pale in comparison to what other global superpowers spend on cyber defence, showing that this issue has not yet gained the significance it should.

The Commission needs to recognize the urgent necessity of proper cyber infrastructure and increase the budget for cyber defence. Moreover, these funds need to be allocated wisely if we want to make sure no hacking incidents obscure the results of the next elections.

One obvious option the Commission has to improve online security for its member states is enhancing public-private partnerships in regards to cyber defence.

The Commission already recognized the potential of public-private partnerships in tackling cyber threats. But while the underlying goal is to foster cooperation at early stages of the research and innovation process, its reach shouldnt stop at the traditional fields of energy, health, transport and finance. Instead, it should be made effective for government institutions and political parties as well. The number of start-ups specialized in cyber defence is thriving: the Commission ought to make sure those businesses get appropriate funding in order to scale up their operations.

Enhancing funding and encouraging public-private partnerships in the field should be taken into account in the review process of the EU Cybersecurity Strategy. Continuous investments need to be made in cyber security measures. It is crucial for the EU to make sure software capabilities of its member states are fit to resist foreign attacks.

Modern warfare is swiftly moving to the virtual front: if the European Union wants to stand a chance in this fight, it becomes imperative that member states are fully prepared to defend themselves from the cyber attacks of criminal organisations, terrorists or indeed state-sponsored agents. The stakes havent been higher.

Tags: Cybersecurity, elections hacking, EU, IT, Op-ed

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Cyber security: what lessons the European Union can learn from the French election - Politheor: European Policy Network

Accounting for 23 percent of GDP worldwide, the United States has dominated the global economy for over 70 years. However, the US attitude towards trade policy has changed significantly since the new administration took office. President Donald Trump has removed the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), slowed the progress of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and called into question the benefits of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

With these notable changes in policies, the United States is no longer situated at the forefront of international trade, and in its absence the European Union has stepped in. The European Union recently signed a free trade agreement with Canada, finished free trade negotiations with Japan, and has essentially replaced the United States as the leader in global trade policy.

In recent years, there has been a significant rise in free trade agreements. This rise can be attributed to the lack of movement in the most recent round of trade negotiations among World Trade Organization (WTO) members, as well as the organizations inability to set world standards. The WTO was created to negotiate trade agreements and remove obstacles to international trade. While the WTO had success in the early stages of removing tariffs, issues with non-tariff barriers have slowed down negotiations. As less progress is made through the WTO framework, even more emphasis will be placed on free trade agreements and their ability to shape global trade policy.

TPP and TTIP were significant trade deals, not just for the United States and its signatories, but also for the world more broadly. The Brookings Institution conducted a study on the impact of TPP, stating the agreement was significant because it represented 60 percent of global GDP and 50 percent of international trade, in addition to bringing together both developed and developing countries in the Pacific Rim. TTIP represented nearly half of the worlds GDP and, as Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce Michael Czinkota states, it was the Wests last best opportunity to set global rules as the emerging markets continue to gain ground. NAFTA, when instated, was the most comprehensive free trade agreement in terms of gross domestic product. The removal and stalling of these agreements leaves the United States no longer as the rule-setter for new trade policies, but as a follower to the decisions made in European free trade agreements.

In February, the European Union ratified its free trade agreement with Canada, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). With plans for it to be in effect by September, this agreement will represent the most comprehensive trade agreement in the world. Besides the standard reduction of tariffs between the two countries, CETA addresses issues such as trade of services, simplifying technical and regulatory standards, and greater protection for intellectual property to reduce as many non-tariff barriers as possible. The most significant advantage the European Union has gained from this agreement, though, is access to the North American market EU companies can now compete with US exporters in the Canadian market. Overall, CETA represents two strong, Western trade powers setting the global standards on non-tariff barriers yet to be addressed on the world stage.

Prior to the G20 summit held in July, the European Union and Japan concluded discussions on their free trade agreement. For both powers, it represents the commitment to improving global trade despite the United States new turn towards America First policies. With the fourth largest economy in the world and the EUs second largest Asian trading partner, Japan is a huge market for the European Union. The agreement also demonstrates the benefits of being part of the European Union and is the first agreement concluded post-Brexit. For Japan, it will be the largest trade agreement made to date and provide their car manufacturers with greater access to the European Union, a market which was once heavily restricted. Both sides believe this agreement will encourage other countries to further reduce barriers and value free trade even without US support.

In addition to CETA and the EU-Japan agreement, the European Union has a free trade agreement with South Korea, which went into effect in 2015, as well as pending agreements with Singapore and Vietnam. While all will benefit from the higher standards being set by the European Union and its new trading partners, US companies will begin to feel pressure in current markets as EU companies gain preferred access through these new deals. Since 2000, the European Union has enacted over 30 trade agreements with countries in Africa, Asia, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and South America. In the same time frame, the United States had enacted only 20 trade agreements with a more narrow focus on South and Central America. As the European Union continues to build agreements with more countries, it gains a larger role in defining global trade policy.

As long as the United States continues to follow its America First policies, the European Union will set the global trade standards and rules with its free trade agreements. The European Union has the largest free trade agreement in the world with Canada and it is forming more agreements with key nations. As free trade agreements become the new tool for defining global trade policy, recent developments could mark the end of US-dominated trade policy and a beginning of a new era led by the European Union.

Nicole Gunkle is a Fellowship Editor at Young Professionals in Foreign Policy (YPFP). Her focus is on European Affairs and International Trade with a particular interest in the European Union. Nicole holds a MA in International Affairs from American University.

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Meet the New Global Trade Leader: the European Union - HuffPost

The sharp slowdown in the migrant crisis since 2015, Emmanuel Macrons defeat of anti-EU populist Marine Le Pen in France earlier this year, and the likely re-election of Germanys Angela Merkel have reinvigorated optimism that Europe has survived yet another round of challenges. Not so fast. There will be many more problems to manage in coming months, and the current confidence is unlikely to last long.

First, the entrance onto the stage of the youthful, energetic Macron has made France the envy of others across Europe hungry for a new generation of leaders in their own countries. But the most remarkable outcome of Frances elections this year was the scale of defeat for the centre-Right and centre-Left parties that have dominated French politics for decades. Pro- or anti-EU, French voters want change, and Macron must deliver it with a legislature in which 70% of deputies are serving in government for the first time. If inexperience undermines his ability to revitalise Frances economy and energise its labour market all those fresh faces will be much less welcome.

More broadly, Macron needs to put Frances fiscal house before sceptical Germans will work with him toward EU fiscal union, banking union, and other needed EU reforms. The new president quickly lost 10 percentage points from his early approval rating as citizens look past the easy smile and confident speeches toward cuts in social spending. And as his predecessors discovered, labour reform, no matter how skilfully presented, draws labour unions into the streets.

Then there is Italy, a country that remains in political stalemate. The next elections, likely in the first half of 2018, are increasingly likely to produce either another fragmented government that cant advance much-needed political and economic reforms or a Five Star Movement-led government thats openly hostile to the EU.

The migrant story continues to reshape Italys political landscape. An EU deal with Turkey has sharply limited the flow of desperate people across the Aegean toward Greece, but arrivals in Italy, mainly by boat from Libya, increased 20% from 2015 to 2016. For the first half of this year, just 9,000 migrants reached Greece, and 4,000 arrived in Spain, while Italy has now taken in more than 90,000 people. Italian anger is rising as the French and Austrian governments seem more interested in tightening their borders with Italy than with sharing even a small part of its burdens. An EU quota system which mandates that each EU member take in refugees to ease the pressure on others is not being enforced.

In particular, the Visegrad countries of Eastern Europe Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia were expected to accept about 11,000 refugees as part of this system. Slovakia and the Czech Republic have taken in 28 people, as of this writing, while Poland and Hungary have accepted zero. This is not the only source of defiance from the East. Hungarys Viktor Orban has fully embraced the term illiberal democrat as he battles to consolidate political control in that country, and Polands Right-wing government is still working on legislation that would allow legislators to fire the countrys judges and replace them with political cronies. The EU has threatened to provide less money for these countries in the next EU budget, but nothing credible has yet been done to force them to comply with EU rules.

If all that werent enough to worry about, there is also the quest of Turkeys president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to give himself Putin-like powers in his country and the problems that creates between Turkey and the EU. Erdogan has discovered that public hostility toward Europe boosts his popularity at home, and a re-election bid next year is sure to create more friction with Germany and others. It could also jeopardise Erdogans deal with the EU that keeps huge numbers of refugees in Turkey in exchange for European cash and various political promises. That deal will probably hold, because it works for both sides. If it doesnt, Europe could face another migrant crisis, reviving populist anger across the continent.

Add troubles with Trump, provocations from Putin, and the high-stakes complexities of Brexit negotiations. Merkel remains a force for stability, and Macron may energise reform in France and the EU more broadly, but its clear that EU leaders will have their hands full for the rest of this year and beyond.

Ian Bremmer is president, Eurasia Group

The views expressed are personal

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Is it too early to get optimistic about the European Union? - Hindustan Times

GETTY

The European Commissions annual report on monitoring the application of EU law showed a 21 per cent increase of open infringement cases, suggesting member states are standing up to Brussels bureaucrats and their relentless legislative agenda.

The report shows a huge rise over the past few years, with the number of new late-transposition infringement cases - when member states are slow to implement EU directives - increasing sharply in 2016 (847) compared to 2015 (543).

Cyprus and Belgium top the list of member states that delay in giving force to directives, the report reveals.

However, most of the proceedings were against Germany and Spain (91 each). In 26 cases, Germany is said to have implemented EU directives or regulations too late and, in 65 cases, incorrectly.

The high number of infringement procedures remains a serious problem, the EU Commission writes in its report which was published last month.

The report reads: The high number of infringement procedures, which in 2016 rose to a five-year peak, remains a serious concern.

Failure to ensure timely and correct transposition of EU legislation ultimately deprives citizens and businesses of their benefits under EU law.

The Commission therefore attaches great importance to ensuring the effective application of the law.

GETTY FILE IMAGE

The high number of infringement procedures, which in 2016 rose to a five-year peak, remains a serious concern

EU report

Reclaiming control over Britains laws was a key reason behind the Brexit vote.

Last week, Jacob Rees-Mogg said the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) must "stop" in the UK on the day of Brexit.

The Tory MP hit out at European rule and said the UK must have control of its own laws once again.

Speaking on the Today programme on BBC Radio 4, Mr Rees-Mogg rejected the notion the ECJ could be Britains senior court for a period after its exit from the European Union.

Asked by presenter Nick Robinson whether there should be no compromise on ECJ power, Mr Rees-Mogg replied the country needed to prepare to take back control now.

He said: Thats absolutely right. It cannot be our senior court for a day after weve left the European Union.

GETTY

It is about control. Do we make our laws according to our own democratic principles on the day weve left or not.

If we dont, were still in the European Union and that is the essence of this whole debate.

Actually I think the implementation period is now, people should be getting ready now, government departments should be getting ready now, they know whats going to happen, they know were leaving.

But there will be some things that cant be done until weve left. But the court just must stop on the day weve gone.

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EU nations REBELLION: Huge rise in number countries BREAKING Brussels' laws - Express.co.uk

Brussels:The European Union (EU) will convene an "extraordinary meeting" next week over the escalating tension with North Korea, the 27-nation bloc's diplomatic service announce.

Representational image. Reuters

North Koreaannounceda detailed plan on Wednesdayto launch a salvo ofballistic missiles toward the Guam, a US Pacific territory. This has come after the two countries exchanged a fresh salvo of verbal attacks which saw President Donald Trump vowing to give a befitting reply to the isolated kingdom with 'fire and fury'.

This scenario does not come as a surprise to the world community as both the countries have long been engaged in a war of words. However, this time the threat has reached a "new stage",warnedthe Japanese defense ministry.

EU Foreign Policy chief Federica Mogherini will chair the meeting of the Political and Security Committee (PSC), in a bid to thrash out the bloc's possible next steps on the situation in North Korea, the European External Action Service said in a statement on Friday.

Mogherini, after meeting her international counterparts in the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila, Philippines, has decided to call the meeting, Xinhua news agency quoted the statement as saying.

Mogherini's decision came one day after the Council of the EU broadened a sanction list targeting North Korea in response to its latest test-launch of ballistic missiles.

The list now includes 62 individual and 50 entities subject to an asset freeze and travel restrictions in the EU.

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European Union to hold 'extraordinary meet' to discuss escalating tensions with North Korea - Firstpost