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The Ukraine war is entering a phase that is expected to be decisive. The eyes of the world are on the imminent counteroffensive from Kyiv, which has been stockpiling NATO-supplied armaments, and Ukraines present and future of Ukraine will depend on what gains the armed forces are able to make in the big push. Both the government of Volodymyr Zelenskiy and its western allies are fully aware of this, as is the Kremlin. With the stakes so high, the European Union is concerned that if the counteroffensive fails the support of the United States which is mired in a period of high tension in domestic politics and with the 2024 presidential elections on the horizon will begin to wane.

Kyivs allies continue to rummage through their depleted arsenals while keeping an eye on Washington, which continues to refuse to cross the red line of supplying fighter jets to Ukraine. The longed-for coalition to provide the Ukrainian Air Force with modern warplanes has not yet got off the ground, despite increasing pressure from the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, and other European nations. This week, following a visit by Zelenskiy, London and Paris went a step further by setting up training programs for Ukrainian pilots, which for the moment will be purely theoretical and will not involve access to the aircraft, thus eliminating one of Washingtons arguments for not delivering F-16s: the lack of readiness of the Ukrainian Air Force to operate them. As things stand, the U.S. has not authorized flight training on F-16s, which is required for Ukrainian pilots to do so even if the aircraft belong to the air forces of European countries.

The U.K., which recently sent precision-guided, long-range missiles to Ukraine, sees the coalition to deliver fighters more as a sign to Russia than Kyiv. The case of the fighters is similar to the formation of the tank coalition, which Germany and the United States were both reluctant to join but ended up leading. Whats really important here is to signal to Russia that we as nations have no philosophical principle objection to supplying Ukraine capabilities that it needs depending on what is going on, on the battlefield, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said Wednesday.

Washington, however, is more in favor of providing other types of weapons that can be deployed immediately, without the need for training to be provided, in view of the counteroffensive. Several diplomatic sources believe that if Ukrainian troops maintain their momentum, Washington could agree to issue re-export licenses for the F-16s it sold to countries such as the Netherlands, which has already stated that, together with Denmark and Belgium, it could provide a hundred fighters to Ukraine.

Washington and Brussels have adopted different levels of support for Kyiv, both committing to supporting the war effort for as long as necessary. However, while the United States has led the way in military support, providing $36.9 billion since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to State Department figures, the European Union has established a long-term framework for the relationship. Brussels has declared Ukraine a candidate country to join the EU and is gradually assimilating Kyiv into a de facto union through treaties and agreements, which include the disbursement of military aid.

The EU has provided Ukraine with total support of 72 billion ($77.7 billion), according to European Council figures. Of this, slightly more than half has been in the form of financial assistance, with 15.3 billion earmarked for military, diplomatic and defense aid. The issue of accession, although there is no timeframe in place, is an important part of the equation, according to a senior European diplomat, while contributing to the security of its eastern neighbor is also a way of reinforcing the EUs own security, said Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank in London. These points were raised a few weeks ago at a meeting between European and U.S. diplomats, at which Washington made it clear that support for Kyiv is not a blank check and that both the counteroffensive and the EU maintaining an upward path in contributing to the backstop are crucial to preserving unity and keeping U.S. support flowing.

Zelenskiys government is also concerned about the possibility of losing support and has tried to temper expectations about the gains the counteroffensive might achieve. The Joe Biden administration has shown no signs of fatigue in its support, but at the same time it is aware that the aid sent to Kyiv has to be seen to be making an impact. After 15 months of war, the arsenals of Kyivs allies are increasingly depleted and financing to keep Ukraines war effort afloat is similarly becoming less flexible. Overdependence on the United States is a risk, notes Lutsevych. Alleviating it means increasing defense spending and investing in production to replenish the materiel sent to Ukraine. A poll run by Ipsos and the University of Maryland in April indicated that 46% of U.S. citizens believed that Washington should maintain its support for Ukraine for only one or two years, while 38% said the White House should remain committed to Kyivs cause for as a long as is necessary.

Polls also show that within the first group there is a large majority of Republican voters, or more precisely of supporters of Donald Trump supporters, says veteran researcher Bruce Stokes of the German Marshall Fund, which specializes in transatlantic relations. A few weeks ago, Trump said during an interview with CNN that the United States had already done too much for Ukraine while accusing the EU of barely lifting a finger, providing a clue as to what may happen in the coming months as the former president attempts to secure the Republican nomination to run for the Oval Office again. The U.S. doesnt like to see itself associated with the losing side. At the moment, Ukraine has not found itself at that point but there are fears that if the counteroffensive is not as successful, U.S. public support will suffer, adds Stokes.

The war in Ukraine will be a point of contention during the presidential election campaign, Stokes notes. Even if the fighting ends later this year or there is some kind of ceasefire agreement, the multi-billion-dollar reconstruction of the country as well as who will pay for it will be another issue on the agenda.

There is some consensus among the military analysts and intelligence sources consulted that the war is unlikely to end this year. And if the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalls, time may run in favor of Russia and of an increasingly assertive China, which is benefiting from the Kremlins dependence, notes a Western diplomat. Neither would such a scenario favor the West, as it may shake the support even of Kyivs staunchest allies. That could translate not only into dwindling military aid reaching the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but also into pressure for Zelenskiys government to negotiate with Moscow over a diplomatic end to the war.

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Kyiv, EU fear that US support for Ukraine will wane if counteroffensive is unsuccessful - EL PAS USA

The strategic partnership between the European Union and Kazakhstan, which was agreed on in November, has come into effect as both sides' representatives have outlined their future course of action, the European Commission stated on Friday

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 19th May, 2023) The strategic partnership between the European Union and Kazakhstan, which was agreed on in November, has come into effect as both sides' representatives have outlined their future course of action, the European Commission stated on Friday.

In early November, Kazakh Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov and European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen signed a memorandum of understanding which established a partnership between Kazakhstan and the EU. The agreement focused on the areas of the future collaboration and envisioned taking concrete steps half a year after the signing.

"Today, Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis, on behalf of the European Commission, and Alikhan Smailov ... announced a set of concrete actions that will implement the Memorandum of Understanding ... between the EU and Kazakhstan on strategic partnership in the field of raw materials, batteries and renewable hydrogen," the EC's statement read.

The announcement was made after an exchange of opinions through letters between Smailov and von der Leyen, the statement added.

The roadmap implies, in particular, the joint realization of investment projects, close collaboration on geological research and the development of a set of proper skills and capacity under the EU Horizon program, the EC said.

"The partnership builds on the existing enhanced partnership and cooperation agreement (EPCA) and aims to jointly develop and better integrate EU and Kazakh strategic value chains related to raw materials, to batteries and to renewable hydrogen. The benefits of closer cooperation are already apparent with first projects already under way," the statement read.

From June 1-2, the EC's Vice-President Maros Sefcovic will implement the first practical actions within the partnership along with Smailov and Kazakh Industry Minister Marat Karabayev during the 13th International Astana Mining and Metallurgy Congress, the EU added.

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Kazakhstan-EU Strategic Partnership Becomes Effective - European ... - UrduPoint News

Romania's Negrescu is adamant that the European Political Community, or EPC, should not replace the process of EU accession for countries that want to join thebloc.

"This platform (the upcoming EPC summit in Moldova) will allow us to have a better interaction with the countries that are trying to get into the European Union," he says. "But this should not replace the process of integration. We have to offer a European perspective for Ukraine, for the Republic of Moldova, for the countries in the Western Balkans. They have to get into the European Union, not into another platform. So we should not create formats that will keep those countries out of the EU."

Negrescu implies that it's time to go up a gear in the enlargement of the EU. "We need to move from nice words to concrete elements," he says. "For instance, we have two new candidate countries; Ukraine and Moldova. Normally they should get access to the EU pre-accession funds. But they dont have access to those funds yet. There are some countries that are not willing to amend the European budget to provide those countries with the necessary resources so that they can make the reforms that would bring them closer to the European Union."

Negrescu welcomes the various financial tools that the EU has adopted in the last few years, but he says the bloc needs to go further.

"Our countries are facing important transformations on the digital side, on the green side, and for all of that we need more instruments to be capable of leading the process," he says. "For example, on the financial support that's being provided to countries in need, most of the help is in the form of loans, not grants. And if you take the recovery plan (the EU's post-Covid Recovery and Resilience Facility, or RRF), we don't have enough common initiatives. Romania has its own recovery plan, but Bulgaria has another recovery plan and they are not linked even though we are neighbouring countries in the region. We are not cooperating with Poland, we are not cooperating with France, and France is not cooperating enough with Germany, despite the good relations that they have. So developing the European dimension when it comes to those challenges is key."

On the issue of Ukrainian grain exports, Negrescu notes: "Sixty percent of the grain exported by Ukraine goes through Romania. So this is an important issue for us. Romania has joined other EU member states in requesting additional support for our farmers. There have been two financial decisions to support farmers in our region. This support does not fully cover the costs we are currently facing. But we are working with the EU; developing new tools to verify the grains, andalso tools to make sure that the grains reach the markets that most need it, especially in Africa."

Programme produced by Isabelle Romero, Yi Song, Perrine Desplats and Sophie Samaille

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Talking Europe - EU should move from 'nice words' to action on enlargement: Romanian ex-minister Negrescu - FRANCE 24 English

New York and Brussels The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the European Union (EU) have renewed their partnership on insider mediation for conflict prevention and peacebuilding through a three-year project aimed to support local leadership and local ownership in peace mediation.

Increasingly, conflicts are compounded by multi-dimensional drivers such as weak governance, intercommunal tension and polarization, climate change, and endemic gender inequality. Locally-led, inclusive and people-centered prevention and peacebuilding efforts can empower communities who have the most to gain from social cohesion and sustaining peace, Asako Okai, UN Assistant Secretary-General and Director, UNDP Crisis Bureau said.

As critical resources for locally-led peacebuilding, Insider Mediators (IMs) derive their legitimacy, credibility and influence from a socio-cultural and/or religious and, indeed, personal closeness to the parties of the conflict, endowing them with strong bonds of trust that help foster the necessary attitudinal changes amongst key protagonists which, over time, prevent conflict and contribute to sustaining peace, according to the UNDP Guidance Note Engaging with Insider Mediators: Sustaining peace in an age of turbulence (2020).

During its first (2012-2013) and second (2015-2018) phase, the UNDP-EU partnership on Insider Mediation has enabled building and piloting critical insider mediation capacities across 14 countries while contributing to global policy and practice through two guidance notes onEngaging with Insider Mediators. A previous project phase in Peru supported Insider Mediators from civil society and community organizations to participate in multi-stakeholder dialogues on democratic and sustainable natural resource management, whereas women Insider Mediators in Uganda contributed to violence-free elections in 2016 through an early-warning and rapid response mechanism.

Working even closer with national partners, the new phase will dedicate its resources to institutionalizing and sustaining the capacities of Insider Mediators, significantly boosting the leadership of women and youth, facilitating access to global knowledge as well as context-specific, shared learning via peer support. Its holistic approach will better connect Insider Mediators and their expertise with relevant UN system, regional and international actors to promote insider mediation across local and global spheres.

Insider mediation will become an even more significant part of the global peacebuilding architecture. It is already an effective component of the EU and UN efforts to foster locally led and people-centered initiatives to build and sustain peace, Benedikta von Seherr-Thoss, Managing Director of Common Security and Defence Policy in the European External Action Service (EEAS) said.

Inclusivity is key to strengthening the capacities of Insider Mediators. "The renewed UNDP-EU partnership on Insider Mediation pays particular attention to the powerful potential of women and young people as change agents for peace", Peter M. Wagner, Head of the European Commission's Service for Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI) said. Both the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) as well as the Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) agendas demonstrate the pivotal role of women's and young people's meaningful inclusion and leadership in conflict prevention and sustainable peacebuilding.

While reinforcing the important role of Insider Mediators, the new project phase also highlights the centrality of peace as the founding premise of both the United Nations and the European Union and as a critical enabling global goal for the Sustainable Development Agenda, nationally and globally.

For further information, please contact:

EU in Brussels: Barbara Einhuser, European Commission, Service for Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI.2), barbara.einhauser@ec.europa.eu and Sanna Harty, European External Action Service (EEAS) Integrated Approach for Security and Peace (ISP.2 - Conflict Prevention and Mediation Support)

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The European Union and UNDP to renew partnership on Insider ... - United Nations Development Programme

The European Union's Council of Ministers (the Council) has reached agreement on the draft DAC8 directive on administrative cooperation in the area of taxation, amending the existing directive to require reporting and automatic exchange of information (AEOI) on revenues from crypto-asset transactions.

From 2026, crypto-asset service providers will have to conduct due-diligence procedures on clients and report to EU Member States' tax authorities on a broad range of crypto-asset transactions, including stablecoins, e-money tokens and certain non-fungible tokens. These 'travel rule' reports will then be automatically shared with other Member States' tax authorities, as is already done for conventional asset transactions under previous versions of the directive. No minimum threshold has been set for the size of transactions to be reported under a regulation adopted by the Council at the same time.

According to the Council, the amended directive is needed because the decentralised nature of crypto-assets has made it difficult for Member States' tax administrations to ensure tax compliance. 'The inherent cross-border nature of cryptoassets requires strong international administrative cooperation to ensure effective tax collection', it says.

The amended directive is based on the European Commission's draft proposal of December 2022, and reflects the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) and a set of amendments to the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) prepared by the OECD under the mandate of the G20 group of countries. Unusually, it does not require approval by the European Parliament, and can be implemented by unanimous agreement of Member States alone.

The new directive will also extend the scope of the current rules on exchange of tax-relevant information by including provisions on exchange of advance cross-border rulings concerning high-net-worth individuals, as well as provisions on AEOI on non-custodial dividends and similar revenues. The Council says the current provisions of DAC do not cover this type of income. In particular, the proposal seeks to improve the rules on reporting and communication of the Tax Identification Number (TIN) to help tax authorities identify the relevant taxpayers and their liabilities. It introduces new penalties that Member States can impose on persons who fail to comply with national legislation on reporting requirements.

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European Union reaches final position on crypto-transaction ... - STEP