Iran has almost locked in its Shia crescent foreign-policy objective.
Iranian-backed forces are hacking a path to the Mediterranean. On May 29, Popular Mobilization Units (pmu) reached the Iraq-Syria border. The pmu, though officially a part of the Iraqi government security forces, is comprised of Iranian-backed Shiite militias. By cutting a swath from Iran to Baghdad, Baghdad to Mosul, and now Mosul to the border, Tehran is on the verge of connecting a land bridge to Syrian President Bashar Assad, and beyond. This would finally link what the Trumpet and many commentators call the Shia crescent.
This development and the subsequent strengthening of Irans presence in Syria means that the threat of Iranian dominance in the region is immediate, Israels Intelligence Ministry Director-General Chagai Tzuriel told the Jerusalem Post, June 6.
Irans strengthening in Syria is an issue that must be addressed right now, he said. If Iran succeeds in creating a land bridge it would be a strategic game changer.
Cutting Off the Kurds
While the pmu has been kept away from the battle for Mosul, they have been given free reign to target the Islamic State to the west. This has turned into a gift to Iran. Gen. Qassem Suleimani has led his forces west from Mosul, skirting just below Kurdish-held territory. In doing so, he has driven a wedge between the Kurds and the Islamic State. It was a cunning play.
After liberating Sinjar in 2015, the Kurds had stagnated. Infighting set in between the local Yazidis and the Kurdish Peshmerga from Erbil. The Kurds originally wanted the region for part of a future state. Then the Islamic State took it from them. As the Kurds have attempted to take it back, squabbling over control has arisen. As they bickered, the pmu charged in and stole the prize.
The race to the Syrian border has taken the Kurds by surprise. The pmu cut the road between Kurdish-controlled Sinjar and Islamic State-controlled town of Baaj.
Now, neither Iraq nor the Kurds control the formerly-Islamic State region, Iran does.
As the National Interest wrote, The new corridor that the pmu has carved out links Syriavia Mosul and Baghdadwith Tehran. It has redrawn the map of Iraq, placing the Shia militias solidly astride the country.
But when the pmu reached the border, they didnt reach Assad.
Headed South
The pmu cannot continue directly west. Doing so would involve fighting in territory controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forcesbacked by United States firepower. Trying to go north wont work either. The northern mountains are Islamic State-free and zealously defended by the Kurds. The best option is to go south. The prize to the south will be Qaim. The border town is one of the Islamic States last supply lines and an excellent opportunity for Iran. Once Qaim is taken, the pmu will be closer than ever to Syrian government-controlled territory.
The last thing standing between Iran and her goal will be the expanse of the Syrian desert and the border town of al Tanf.
This is where it will get tricky. The town is controlled by U.S.-backed rebel forces. It is here that Assad and the pmu hope to connect.
Race for the Ruins
Johnathan Spyer wrote a piece for the Jerusalem Post highlighting the race that is on to connect forces. Assad is pushing east toward the oncoming pmu. The U.S. is trying to keep them separated. On May 18, the U.S. launched strikes on a column of Assad regime forces on their way to al Tanf. The column included tanks and earthmovers. The U.S. cannot let the border crossing fall. Doing so would allow Assad an open road all the way to Tehran.
As the Washington Institute stated, The post-Islamic State battlefield is being prepared, and the formerly useless eastern part of Syria is taking on much greater strategic importance in the competition between the east-west Shiite axis and north-south Sunni axis.
It is a battle of the crossroads.
America wants to forge a Sunni path from Jordan to Turkey. Iran wants to forge a path from Iran to the Mediterranean. It is a race to see who will connect through the Syrian desert first.
If the U.S.-backed forces complete their north-south bridge first, Assad and the pmu could find themselves fighting directly against U.S. forcesor at least better supplied rebels. If the pmu takes Qaim and Assad reaches al Tanfcompleting their bridge east-westthen the U.S. will have to make a decision. If it tries to sever the link, it will have to fight the pmu, risking direct conflict with Iran. But allowing the pmu to reach Assad would spell disaster for the rebels.
It would also spell disaster for Israel.
Power of the Shiite Crescent
Imagine what Iran could do with an open road direct to Israels northern border. Remember, Iran links to Iraq. Iraq links to Syria. Syria links to Lebanon, and Lebanon shares a border with Israel. Already Iran has managed to stockpile a 100,000-plus missile arsenal in the Lebanese foothills. Israel has worked to destroy missile convoys from Syria en route to Hezbollah, but there is no way it can catch them all. An open road would only increase Irans weapons shipments to Assad and Hezbollahstrengthening the Shiite crescent.
That road hasnt been completed yet, but the next few weeks will be crucial.
For years, the Trumpet has discussed how Iraq was going to fall to Iran. The Islamic State has proved to be the perfect excuse to takeover. The Iran-led pmu now controls a stretch of territory that ranges from border to border!
Watch the pmu, watch Assad, watch the U.S., watch the rebels, and watch the Islamic State as they all converge in Syrias eastern desert. But most of all, watch the Trumpet. We have forecast the rise of Iran for decades.
Is Iraq About to Fall to Iran? That headline first appeared in the Trumpet in December 1994! Our books, booklets, articles, programs, radio shows and magazines have pointed to a soon-coming conflict in the Middle East that will throw the world into the worst time of suffering in human history. The time of proxy wars is almost over. Major wars are about to begin.
Thankfully, they will be short lived. For as long as we have warned about the coming World War iii, we have also declared how it will end. There is a hope-filled future for mankind and a definite end to the wars that currently ravage our planet. But in the meantime, keep watch. Irans militias are on the move and the Shiite crescent is forming.
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