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The European Commission and the High Representative/Vice President Federica Mogherini presented today how the European Union aims to support states, societies, communities and individuals in adapting to growing and increasingly long-term pressures. This is one the priorities guiding the EU's external action as presented by the EU Global Strategy.

The European Union's unique contribution to stability in the Sahel region is a good example of this resilience approach: European humanitarian aid helps to manage the immediate crisis of displaced people, while our development cooperation tackles the longer-term root causes of poverty, by supporting complementary actions for job creation, access to education, governance, health and climate mitigation. In addition, the EU is a security provider to the region. The HR/VP just announced 50 million of support to the G5 Sahel Joint force, with the aim to fight terrorism and enhance cross-border cooperation. All of these actions support the resilience of the region.

Handling disruptive pressures and shocks has become the new normal across the world. It is beyond the power of any individual state to confront today's demographic, climate change, environmental or migratory challenges, as well as the unpredictable consequences of economic shocks, conflict and violent extremism.

High Representative/Vice President Federica Mogherini said: "One fourth of the world's population lives in fragile States or societies. We want to prevent these fragile situations from turning into new wars, new humanitarian catastrophes, or new refugee crises. This is what we call resilience. This Communication will help us coordinate an impressive set of different tools, that only the European Union can mobilise: from humanitarian aid to incentives for private investments, from climate action to military missions. It is a forward-looking, truly integrated approach - the only one that can work, in the complex world of today. It is the European way to peace, security and human development".

There is a pressing need to move away from crisis containment to a more structural and long-term approach to vulnerabilities. The strategy puts a strong emphasis on anticipation, prevention and preparedness, aiming to work along three linked lines:

- Expanded assistance for partner countries' resilience The EU will continue to support domestic efforts of partner countries to become more resilient, with the help of broadened political, development and humanitarian support. This includes strengthening inclusive and participatory societies, alleviating long-lasting crises or preventing violent conflict. It will also take into account the vulnerabilities and needs of forcibly displaced people, while also recognising the positive contribution of migrants to inclusive growth and sustainable development.

- Policy dialogue and bilateral initiatives: The EU can draw upon significant experience of addressing complex domestic policy challenges and enhancing resilience. Examples of this include its work on energy security, climate adaptation, economic and social policy or addressing global health risks. Having invested heavily in research on resilience, the European Union is ready to share these insights with its international partners.

- Resilience and the security of the Union : Internal and external security dimensions of EU policy have to be closely integrated, in order to strengthen our response to hybrid threats, cyber-security, the security of critical infrastructure, terrorism and violent extremism. The European Union proposes to strengthen work on countering external disinformation strategies, as well as to further develop cooperation with NATO and the OSCE. In line with these priorities, the EU has for example stepped up its funding to 300 million for projects aimed at preventing and countering violent extremism and has deployed counter-terrorism experts in a number of key countries.

The European Union and its Member States are subject to many of the same pressures, which also challenge the resilience of its external partners and expose their vulnerabilities. European external policy has a strong role to play also in ensuring the resilience within the borders of the EU. This comes at a time when the Union has a greater responsibility than ever before to contribute to the security of its citizens.

Background:

The EU has over the past few years established an ambitious and transformative agenda for its external action. These include the foreign and security policy aims set out in the EU Global Strategy, international development and humanitarian goals agreed under the UN's Agenda 2030, and commitments under the Paris Climate accord.

The Joint Communication is part of the follow-up to the Global Strategy for the EU's Foreign and Security Policy, which Federica Mogherini presented to European leaders in June last year. The High Representative will present a report on the first year of implementation of the Strategy to EU Heads of State or Government and Foreign Ministers later in June.

For more information:

Factsheet: Joint Communication on "A Strategic Approach to Resilience in the EU's External Action"

Joint Communication to the European Parliament and the Council "A Strategic Approach to Resilience in the EU's External Action"

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EU presents its strategy for more resilient states and societies around the world - EU News

ZAGREB - European Union could face great political and economic consequences after Brexit, but it would also be able to increase the connectivity among 27 remaining states while trying to resolve the issues of migrant and debt crisis which has a severe impact on the south of Europe.

How will the EU be able to answer these questions and how will they affect the Croatias position in the EU, will be topics of the roundtable Future of the European Union after Brexit.

Speakers at the panel EU after Brexit: more or less Europe will be Head of the European Commission in Croatia Branko Barievi, MEP Tonino Picula, Chairman of the Foreign Policy Committee in the Parliament of Croatia Miro Kova, Minister Assistant at the Directorate for European Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs of Croatia Zrinka Ujevi and professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Zagreb Luka Brki.

Secretary of State at the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs Zdravka Bui, MEP eljana Zovko, Chief Political Adviser to the Prime Minister of Montenegro Aleksandar Erakovi and Professor of Political Science at the University of Zagreb Zoran Kureli will speak at the panel regarding the relations between Croatia and the Western Balkans.

The roundtable will be held at the Representation of the European Commission in Zagreb on Wednesday, June 8. The event is organised by the Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO) and the Representation of the European Commission in Croatia.

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Roundtable Future of the European Union after Brexit to be held in Zagreb - European Western Balkans (press release)

The European Union and its Member States signed today a strategic blueprint, outlining the future of European development policy. This "New European Consensus on Development" represents a new collective vision and plan of action to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development.

Brussels, 7 June 2017 The jointly developed strategy, in the form of a Joint Statement, was signed today during the annual two-day European Development Days by the Prime Minister of Malta, Joseph Muscat, on behalf of the Council and Member States, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, the High Representative/Vice President, Federica Mogherini, and the President of the European Parliament, Antonio Tajani.

The new European Consensus on Development constitutes a comprehensive common framework for European development cooperation. For the first time, it applies in its entirety to all European Union Institutions and all Member States, which commit to work more closely together.

The new Consensus strongly reaffirms that poverty eradication remains the primary objective of European development policy. It fully integrates the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. In doing so, it aligns European development action with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development which is also a cross-cutting dimension for the EU Global Strategy. European leaders committed to three areas:

1. They recognise the strong interlinkages between the different elements of such action. This includes development and peace and security, humanitarian aid, migration, environment and climate, as well as cross cutting-elements, such as: youth; gender equality; mobility and migration; sustainable energy and climate change; investment and trade; good governance, democracy, the rule of law and human rights; innovative engagement with more advanced developing countries; and mobilising and using domestic resources.

2. The new Consensus furthermore takes a comprehensive approach to means of implementation, combining traditional development aid with other resources, as well as sound policies and a strengthened approach to policy coherence, recalling that EU development cooperation always has to be seen in the context of Europe's partner countries' own efforts. The Consensus provides the basis for the EU and its Member States to engage in more innovative forms of development financing, leveraging private sector investments and mobilising additional domestic resources for development.

3. The EU and its Member States will create better-tailored partnerships with a broader range of stakeholders, including civil society, and partner countries at all stages of development. They will further improve their implementation on the ground by working better together and taking into account their respective comparative advantages.

Background

Europe is a global leader in development, being the world's biggest provider of Official Development Assistance. The new European Consensus on Development was agreed jointly by all European Institutions and all EU Member States in an open and transparent manner, also in consultation with other partners. It is the EU's response to today's global trends and challenges, aligning EU external action to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The 2030 Agenda was adopted by the international community in September 2015, and includes at its core the 17 Sustainable Development Goals and associated targets, which run to 2030. Along with the other international summits and conferences held in 2015 in Addis Ababa and in Paris, the international community has an ambitious new frame for all countries to work together on shared challenges. For the first time, the SDGs are universally applicable to all countries and the EU is committed to be a frontrunner in implementing them.

On 22 November 2016, the European Commission proposed its ideas for a strategic approach for achieving sustainable development in Europe and around the world, including a Commission proposal for a new Consensus. Since then the European Parliament, the Council under the Maltese Presidency, and the Commission have engaged in an intensive series of inter-institutional discussions aimed at agreeing to a new collective vision for development policy which responds to the 2030 Agenda and other global challenges.

Europe is a frontrunner when it comes to sustainable development and the 2030 Agenda, through external and other policies.

For More Information

A Joint Statement by the President of the European Parliament, Antonio Tajani, the President of the Council of the European Union, Joseph Muscat, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission, Federica Mogherini

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The new European Consensus on Development EU and Member States sign joint strategy to eradicate poverty - Reliefweb

Theresa May will fail to secure a comprehensive free trade agreement with the rest of the EU by 2019 in a development that would mean a destructive cliff-edge Brexit for the UK, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has predicted.

In its latest Global Economic Outlookreport, the Paris-based multilateral economic organisation has upgraded its 2017 GDP growth forecast for the UK to 1.6 per cent, up from 1.2 per cent last November.

But it is still anticipating a sharp slowdown in UK growth to just 1 per cent in 2018.

This projection critically assumes that 'most favoured nation' treatment will govern UK trade after the United Kingdom leaves the European Union in 2019," the OECD says, referencing a description of the way that countries must trade with each other under minimal World Trade Organisation rules.

In her Lancaster House speech in January, Theresa May said that she wanted to conclude a a new, comprehensive, bold and ambitious free trade agreementwith the rest of the EU.

The Prime Minister also signalled her willingness to agree a transitionaldeal post 2019, which would allow trade to carry on unimpeded while such an overarching free trade agreement was concluded.

But she also warned that no deal is better than a bad deal, implying that she could also walk away from the negotiating deal and that the UK could crash out of the EUs single market and customs union with no new agreement in place.

That latter threat was also contained in the Conservative manifesto.

The WTO outcome would imply, among many other things, 10 per cent tariffs on UK car exports to the EU, tight quotas on agricultural exports and an abrupt end to the right of UK financial firms to operate in Europe.

The OECDs baseline assumption is that this is what materialises and also that the UK has no other new free trade deals with other non-EU countries in place by 2019.

It said that the channels through which this would likely adversely impact the UK economy next year were through weaker household consumption, confidence and investment.

The major risk for the economy is the uncertainty surrounding the exit process from the European Union. Higher uncertainty could hamper domestic and foreign investment more than projected,the OECD writes.

Catherine Mann, the OECDs chief economist, told The Independent that it was sticking with the same WTO Brexit outcome it used in previous UK forecasts made since last June's referendum.

Discussions regarding the nature of trade modalities, the timetable for any deal, as well as interim agreements are ongoing between the UK and the EU.We continue with the same assumption of WTO 'Most Favoured Nation' basis, as in our previous projections." she said.

The overwhelming majority of economists expect that a cliff-edge Brexit would be highly damaging for the UK economy.

Researchers from the London School of Economics estimate that it would cost 2.6 per cent of GDP by 2020, rising to 9.5 per cent by 2030.

The one detailed study that argues trading on WTO rules post 2019 would boost the UK economy has been severely criticised as methodologically flawed and making wildly implausible assumptions.

Business groups have warned loudly about the catastrophic impact of a "no deal" Brexit, with the CBI president Paul Dreschlersayingit would open Pandora's boxfor firms.

In its latest report, theOECD also argues that Britain needs a major increase in infrastructure spending, something more in line with Labour's manifesto pledges than the Conservatives'.

"Higher investment in transport infrastructure, in particular in less productive regions, would improve connectivity and the diffusion of knowledge," the OECD says.

Labour's manifesto also promises a free trade agreement with the EU and explicitly rejects "no deal" as a viable option.

The UK's GDP growth slowed to just 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2017, well down from the 0.7 per cent expansion in the final quarter of 2016.

This was the joint slowest quarterly expansion of any G7 country, alongside Italy, although growth is expected to pick up somewhat in the following quarter.

Responding to the OECD report, SirVince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, said: Voters should listen to this eve of poll warning on the major economic risk posed by Theresa Mays reckless approach to Brexit.

"The hardline approach [she] has taken, insisting that no deal is better than a bad deal and planning to take us out of the single market, will seriously damage opportunities and jobs for years to come. The Liberal Democrats will fight to keep Britain in the single market and customs union, and to ensure the people have the final say on the Brexit deal.

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Theresa May will fail to deliver EU trade deal in 2019 and UK heading for cliff-edge Brexit, OECD predicts - The Independent

On March 25, 2017, the 27 European Union (EU) member leaders gathered in Rome to celebrate 60 years of European integration and progress. What started in March of 1957 as the European Economic Community of six central European countries, has grown to an economic and political union of 28 countries spanning the entire continent. The formation of the EU did not happen by a single event or treaty, but rather it has been a continuously increasing integration effort by the member states. The 1957 Treaty of Rome started the process that eventually established a common market, a common currency and a common foreign policy.

Today, the EU is one of the most influential economic and political institutions in the world. As a single market with 28 member-countries, the EU is one of the worlds largest economies. In 2016, EU-wide GDP growth was slightly higher than the U.S., at 1.7%, while combined GDP was $17 trillion, slightly less than the U.S. The Euro currency, though relatively new, is the second most traded currency in the world. And the EU Commission (the EUs governing body) is one of the most effective institutions in regulating mergers and acquisitions, environmental protection, consumer rights and working conditions; with significant influence beyond its borders.

And yet, today the EU is facing some of its greatest challenges. The EU-wide unemployment rate is stubbornly high, at 8.0%. Worse than that, there is a high contrast of differences in the unemployment rates of individual countries (3-4% in Germany and the Czech Republic, versus 18-23% in Spain and Greece). This inequality between the prosperous north and the struggling south replicates itself in other areas a well, like personal and national wealth, investment and economic growth. The sovereign debt crisis and the continuing economic instability in Greece is threatening the sustainability to the Euro currency, while the recent decision of the UK to leave the EU (See also: Brexit and the EU) challenges the very existence of the common market.

Many other geopolitical crises are directly impacting Europe, and putting a real pressure on the EU. The rise of terrorism, first with Al Qaida and then with ISIS, has led to an increase in terrorist attacks within the EU. The protracted civil war in Syria eventually led thousands of refugees to try the unthinkable: flee en masse to Europe. Over a million refugees (and migrants) entered the EU in 2015, fleeing war-torn Syria, Iraq and Libya, in a way that overwhelmed the EUs capacity to control its borders. Russia invaded Ukraine (a country in the process of negotiating closer cooperation with the EU) and annexed part of its territory.

With all that on its plate, the EU Commission approached the 60th anniversary of the formation of the union with great ambition. On March 1, 2017, the European Commission released a White Paper on The Future of the European Union. This document outlines five different scenarios in which the EU can approach future integration. The question of Europes future has often been a binary choice, debating whether more or less integration is best. These plans are not concrete, but rather attempt to get the conversation started among EU leaders for what kind of EU they want to see in the future. Nonetheless, by 2025, the EU Commission hopes that the 27 remaining member states will be able to move forward together towards an ever closer union.

Scenario 1: Carrying on (business as usualno urgent need to change)The EU-27 would continue to implement and upgrade the current agenda through the current institutional framework and possibilities. Naturally, this scenario would also include strengthening the Euro, further defense cooperation in the fight against terrorism, improvement in border control and continuous improvements to strengthen environmental standards and sustainability, but no changes to current institutions, structures or processes.

Scenario 2: Nothing but the Single Market (just a common market and nothing else)This approach focuses entirely on deepening the single market. This scenario will strengthen trade in goods, services and capital markets, which would lead to the single market becoming the main reason to be an EU member. This could create potential risks for the Euro, as divergence and limited cooperation increase vulnerabilities for the currency.

Scenario 3: Those who want more do more (voluntary enhanced cooperation)This scenario would allow countries who want to work together on certain policies to voluntarily enhance their cooperation. Main policy areas could be defense, internal security, taxation or social matters. This strategy has proven to be successful in the past; consider the Schengen passport-free area and the Eurozone.

Scenario 4: Doing less more efficiently (enumerated areas of competence)Under this plan, the EU-27 would focus on specific areas for improvements, while doing less in other areas. This would allow the EU to prioritize issues that need to be addressed quickly, such as cooperation on border management and systematic counter-terrorism measures.

Scenario 5: Doing much more together (federalism)This is a scenario where the EU would decide to go further in all policy areas. In this scenario, member states would share more power and decision-making. Decisions would often be made on the basis of being beneficial for the whole union, at the European level, rather than at the national level serving the interests of the member states.

Moving Forward European-Style: A Multispeed Europe

Interestingly enough, especially with the UK exit from the EU, the current European consensus is on something resembling scenario 3 (voluntary enhanced cooperation). European national leaders, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, have mentioned support of different levels of cooperation within the EU. This multispeed Europe approach seems to be the most supported scenario for moving forward. France and Germany (the twin engines of EU integration) agreed that there should be ways in which the different levels of ambition among member states of the EU can be addressed to better contribute to the success of the EU. There is even a model advanced by a number of European luminaries for a continental partnership (see: Europe After Brexit: A proposal for a continental partnership), where there is an inner circle (the EU) with deep political and economic integration (a federal EU) and an outer circle with less integration that focuses only on trade and the common market (and could include the UK, Ukraine and maybe even Turkey).

EU Future Integration: Learning the Right Lessons

EU integration during the past 60 years has been a remarkable accomplishment, despite the many obstacles it had to overcome. The EU is a truly unique undertaking, which has a lot to learn from other integration efforts around the world. European thinking and efforts on ascertaining further future integration have always been very insular, looking only for a European solution to their current problems. While Europeans are facing an existential moment in their path to an ever closer union it might serve them best to draw inspiration and guidance from other parts of the world, like India and the United States. India shares many of Europes cultural, linguistic and racial diversities, while the U.S. represents a much more stable system of governance for a continent that is trying to achieve an ever-closer union.

India as inspiration for the EU

India and the EU are two very different unions with a remarkable similar temperament, with their many languages, religions and ethnic groups. India is what Pallavi Aiyar calls a proto-European Union. According to Ms. Aiyar, India has managed to stitch together a large region of diverse social and cultural fabric into a political and economic union just like the EU.

Culturally, India has 22 scheduled languages, while the EU has 24 official languages; a testament to the many different ethnic groups that make up both India and the EU. Administratively, India has 29 states (and 7 government administered territories), not unlike the EU which has 28/27 members-states. Politically, turnout in India is much higher for local elections, than for national elections (very much like the EU). Although Indias parliament (Lok Sabha) does have two major political parties with somewhat of a national appeal, it also has over 30 local parties. Euro-wide political parties are but a collection of local parties, with no real European identity. Economically, India has high levels of income inequality among its statesno different than the EU. Finally, Indias internal migrant population (4.5% of total population) is very similar to EUs (2.7% of total population).

Just like India successfully created a strong, common identity out of seemingly fractured multiplicity, says Ms. Aiyar, so can the EU. Europeans should draw inspiration from India, which has managed to maintain national cohesion while preserving local cultural and linguistic identities.

U.S. as a guide to political stability

On the other hand, Indias system of governance is not the best for emulation. The EUs political aspiration should be U.S. style federalism, but that has always been an anathema to Europeans who believe that to emulate the U.S. system of governance will lead to the extinction of any cultural/ethnic identity on the part of member states. Overall, the U.S. system of governance has four main components: three distinct centers of power/function at the federal level (executive, legislative and judiciarythe President, the Congress and the Supreme Courtall independent of each other, checking and balancing each other out), and independent State governments with their own unique spheres of jurisdiction (or competence).

It would not be at all a stretch for the EU to adopt the U.S. system of governance, considering that it already has three out of the four components: a bicameral legislature (EU Parliament and the EU Council), an independent supreme court in the European Court of Justice, and independent member state governments. Currently the EU Council is where national governments participate in the EU legislative process, but it would not be unthinkable to propose turning the EU Council to a U.S. style Senate (where each member state is represented equally, and the members could come from member state legislatures).

What is missing is the popularly elected, continentally unifying, executive leader, to bring the Union together and to finally allow it to have the kind of cohesive continental and global presence that it so much deserves. However, adopting a U.S.-style EU President will have to happen gradually, in order to allow people and national leaders time to adjust. In a process that takes (lets say) 20 years (four 5-year terms), the EU could gradually enhance the democratic legitimacy of an EU-wide President.

For example:

First Term: EU Presidential candidates selected by EU member state governments, but will have to be confirmed by EU Parliament (and maybe EU Council that represents member-states legislatures).

Second Term: EU Presidential candidates approved by EU Parliament (anyone who gets 10% support in the EU Parliament makes it to an EU-wide ballot), but election will be held by national legislative bodies (in proportionlike an electoral college).

Third Term: EU Presidential candidates approved by Parliament (anyone who gets 10% support in the EU Parliament makes it to an EU-wide ballot), and elected directly by the people (preferably in two rounds).

Fourth Term: Finally, EU Presidential candidates approved by European parties (through Euro-wide party conventionsno more prescreening by EU political institutions), and elected directly by the people (preferably in two rounds).

Overall, this EU President would still have a Commission that runs the EU bureaucracy, composed of nationals from all the EU member countries, but they will gradually become answerable to the people, and not the national governments.

There is no doubt that this is a critical moment in the future of the EU. Europeans need to do some serious soul-searching as to what kind of union they want. Ultimately, the future of the EU will come down to the same thing it always does: the political will of national leaders.

About the Authors: Nasos Mihalakas is an Assistant Professor of International Business, at SUNY Brockports School of Business Administration and Economics. Frances Karas is an International Business Major at SUNY Brockport, class of 2017.

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The Future of the European Union: After 60 Years of European-Style Integration, Time to Learn from Others - Diplomatic Courier