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WHAT WILL become of these? Euros fall off a table after being minted. The EU also may be teetering on the brink.. (photo credit:REUTERS)

After the Brexit referendum, the breakup of the European Union through a collapse or voluntary disbandment can no longer be considered a fully absurd scenario. To create a framework of thought it is worthwhile to start analyzing what that could mean for Israel, even though Israel will not play any role in the process if it develops.

Particularly in the new century, the EU has taken increasingly hostile and occasionally antisemitic positions toward Israel on several issues. This led the Simon Wiesenthal Center to put the EU in third place in its 2015 list of worldwide promoters of antisemitic and/or anti-Israel incidents. It gave as reason: The European Union has chosen to label products from the Golan Heights and disputed territories on the West Bank alone, ignoring the products of other occupied and disputed territories in the world such as Western Sahara, Kashmir, Tibet and products from areas controlled by terrorist Hamas and Hezbollah. This use of double standards against Israel typifies modern anti-Israelism and has been at the core of antisemitism for many centuries.

The above example of discrimination is only one of the many justified criticisms Israel has of the EU. This hostility originates on a continent where the greatest mass murder of the Jews to ever take place occurred less than a hundred years ago. The Holocaust was not a German and Austrian project alone. Many other European authorities and individuals collaborated. Some elements of its impact continue to exist today.

Today there is a large amount of indirect support of Israel-hatred and antisemitism coming from Europe. The European Commission has done nothing to develop selection procedures concerning immigration from Muslim countries with high levels of antisemitism. There is a testimony from the Dutch former EU commissioner Frits Bolkestein that when he raised the issue of Muslim immigration in a meeting of the EC around 2000, his colleagues considered him a racist.

Nor has the EU, with all of its talk about the rise in antisemitism, tried to develop a unified reporting system for antisemitic incidents in its member countries.

One major argument which seemingly favored the existence of the EU from an Israeli viewpoint has been that some member countries could take stronger anti-Israel positions if they were not bound by common EU positions.

In recent months, various actions taken by France have shown that this argument is weaker than often considered.

Presidential elections are due there within several weeks. The presidency of Socialist Franois Hollande has been such a failure that for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, a sitting president is not running for a second term. He did the favor to two journalists, Gerard Davet and Fabrice Lhomme, of giving them access to regular private conversations during his time in office.

In their recently released book, they list impotence as the main characteristic of the Hollande presidency.

Recently, Israel became an even more convenient scapegoat for the French authorities. In January, France organized a useless international conference on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The organizers knew that a few days later US President Donald Trump, who holds radically different views from his predecessor, would be inaugurated. France subsequently could not even obtain the adoption of the conferences statement in the EU Foreign Affairs Council, as it was blocked by Britain. It is not far-fetched to assume that the French Socialists hope to attract Muslim voters, of which there are many, with their anti-Israel positions.

WHEN THE new Swedish government, dominated by the Social Democrats, was installed in 2014, one of its earliest actions was to recognize the non-existent Palestinian state. It well knew that if there were free elections among Palestinians in the West Bank, the genocide-promoting Hamas would most likely obtain a majority.

The Swedish government did not feel the need to act in coordination with its EU partners on this issue. The Irish foreign minister, Charles Flanagan, has stated that his government constantly considers recognizing a Palestinian state.

Against this background, the disappearance of the EU would mainly present advantages for Israel. If the office of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy would be abolished, a source of ongoing multilateral incitement against Israel would end.

The disappearance of the European Commissions Legal Service would also be very positive for Israel. It is responsible for the one-sided opinion that the West Bank is occupied territory according to international law and that the settlements are illegal. Many leading international legal experts contest this position.

Whether the EU remains as it is, whether some countries leave it, or whether it is abandoned altogether, should not be of particular interest to Israel. If the EU disappears, the Common Market will most likely remain. So will collaboration in research and a few other fields of interest to Israel. There will also be a common interest in continuing to jointly fight terrorism, mainly that committed by Muslims. When countries will need to guard their own borders, this may make them more sensitive to Israels problems.

Finally, there is one great advantage to the disappearance of the EU. The Israeli population is substantially bigger than that of 14 of the 28 EU member states.

Another six have populations on the same order of magnitude. Only eight have much larger populations. Israels force in bilateral relations will greatly increase if compared to the current confrontation with the EU behemoth with its more than 500 million inhabitants.

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Is a disbanded European Union good for Israel? - Jerusalem Post Israel News

German foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel and Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern called for European Union (EU) members to close ranks in the face of pressures from the new US administration and from Russia.

Gabriel warned it would be a mistake for European countries to seek individual answers to current challenges, rather than EU-wide solutions.

"We are witnessing a new delineation of the world,"Gabriel said. He was speaking after a meeting with Kern, a fellow Social Democrat, in Vienna.

Kern said USPresident Donald Trump was openly attempting to weaken the EU, while there were similar efforts "in our eastern neighborhood," referencing Russia. He called for a "phase of closing ranks" within the EU.

Gabriel stressed that Europe needed above all a common foreign, defense and security policy, Austrian media reported.

Gabriel said people needed to be realistic about the political situations in countries such as Libya and Tunisia and their ability to abide by immigration deals

'Realism' on North African migrants

Gabriel called for more realism amid controversial proposals for refugee holding camps in North Africa.

"I advise people not to paint a world that does not exist," Gabriel said.

On Monday the new President of the EU Parliament Antonio Tajani called for refugee camps in Libya and a billion-dollar "Marshall Plan" for Africa. "Either we are acting now, or millions of Africans are going to Europe in the next 20 years," Tajani told the Funke Media Group.

Gabriel later met with Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz

Early in February EU leaders agreed on a plan to stem the flow of migrants via the Mediterranean including support for setting up safe refugee camps in Libya.

Gabriel said it was dangerous to think that the EU-Turkey agreement on intercepting and inviting migrants was transferable to unstable and politically chaotic countries such as Libya and Tunisia.

In 2016 the EU signed a deal with Turkey to stem the flow of refugees in exchange for increase resettlement of Syrian refugees residing in Turkey and an acceleration of visa-free travel for Turkish citizens.

Gabriel also met with Austria's Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz who said he felt encouraged by these proposals. Kurz said the discussion on the refugees crisis had finally begun to become more honest, saying he had long been seeking to turn back refugees.

More focus on vulnerable members of society

Kern and Gabriel also stressed that the EUshould focus more on the most vulnerable members of society, and on delivering prosperity to all.

They said EU members needed to restore the promise of prosperity as a primary issue and to transform the internal market into a social market economy.

Gabriel's Social Democratic Party (SPD) is hoping for a winning swing in this September's election. Austria will head to the polls one year later.

aw/jm (dpa, KNA, AFP)

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German and Austrian leaders call for European Union to close ranks ... - Deutsche Welle

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Rubber crumb fields pose very low risk, says European Union report - The Indian Express

LONDON: The British government promised Tuesday that it won't strip nationals of any rights without lawmakers' approval, as it tries to persuade Parliament to authorize the start of divorce talks with the bloc.

By leaving the EU, Britain will be withdrawing from the bloc's policy of free movement of citizens among member states. That leaves 3 million EU nationals in Britain, and 1 million Britons living in other member countries, in limbo.

Parliament's upper chamber, the House of Lords, plans to try Wednesday to pass a guarantee that EU citizens would be able to stay in Britain after Brexit.

Opposition peers hope to amend a bill authorizing the start of EU exit talks to include the promise, and have enlisted the support of some parliamentarians from the governing Conservatives.

In an attempt to prevent the authorization bill's defeat, Home Secretary Amber Rudd wrote to members of the House of Lords saying "nothing will change for any EU citizen, whether already resident in the U.K. or moving from the EU, without Parliament's approval."

But the letter offers no guarantees of EU citizens' right to remain, saying only that the issue would be a top priority once formal exit talks start.

Prime Minister Theresa May plans to trigger Article 50 of the EU's key treaty, starting two years of exit negotiations, by March 31.

But she can't do that until Parliament passes legislation sanctioning the move. The House of Commons approved the bill earlier this month and the Lords is scrutinizing it this week.

If Lords amend the bill, it will have to go back to the House of Commons for another vote, delaying its passage and potentially threatening May's timetable.

A growing number of politicians and business groups are warning that the schedule already is tight. Former Prime Minister John Major warned Monday that the goal of agreeing on divorce terms within two years is "very, very optimistic."

The British Chambers of Commerce said Tuesday that the break from the EU should be delayed if a post-Brexit trade deal remains incomplete after two years. The business group said Britain must avoid "sudden disruption to our trading relations" with the EU and should extend the negotiating period if necessary.

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson told the group's conference that he wanted to go "full tilt and get it done within two years."

"I'm not saying there won't be some bumps in the road," Johnson added. But he said the U.K. and the bloc should be able to strike "a fantastic deal" that is good for British businesses.

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UK: European Union citizens won't lose rights without Parliament's nod - The New Indian Express

Brexit means the EU sheds one ofits largest annual contributorsthe UK contributesaround US$19.3 billion (18.2bn) leavingGermanyandFrancefar and away the largest donors, atUS$25.8 billion (24.3bn) and US$20.1 billion (19bn) respectively.

In interviews withlocal media, Commissioner Oettinger indicated cuts would be made tothe EU budget, particularly inthe field ofagricultural subsidies, butthese would be insufficient tocover the shortfall created bythe UK's departure, and other countries' contributions may have torise asa result. He suggested Germany would be obliged topay atleast US$4.8 billion (4.5bn) extra from2019.

It is not the first time Oettinger has expressed concern aboutthe fiscal impact ofBrexit onthe EU and his home country, although his forecasts forhow much it might cost have escalated overtime forinstance,he previously suggestedit may cost Germany an extra US$1 billion.

Nevertheless, the question ofwhat impact Brexit might have onindividual EU Member States, and the bloc overall, has rarely been considered inthe mainstream Western media.

Given the UK is theEU's third most populous member state, comprising 12.76 percent ofthe bloc's overall population, the country is a highly influential player inthe European Council and Parliament, and the UKspends more ondefensethan any other EU country.

The implications could be seismic, although analysis byUniversity College London (UCL) suggests a raft ofpotentially positive developments.

For one, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)could be jettisoned outright the UK was a determined lobbyist infavor ofthe controversial trade deal, despitethe protestations ofleaders such asFrench President Francois Hollande.

AFP 2016/ FREDERICK FLORIN

Members of the European Parliament take part in a voting session as they hold signs against the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), on June 10, 2015, in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France

Brexit could also increase EU protectionism, asthe strength ofpotentially protectionist member states would grow.Open Europe analysisof Council voting patterns notes that underthe Council's Qualified Majority voting system, the Southern protectionist bloc (France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus) and Northern liberal bloc (UK, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and the Baltics) are ineffective deadlock.

Without the UK, the collective weight ofthe liberal bloc would decline, whereas the protectionist bloc would strengthen, producing a less open EU. Brexit would also alter Parliament's party landscape and ideological composition over60 percent ofthe UK's 73 MEPs currently sit withcenter-right and Eurokceptic groups.

While it's unclear whether the UK's seats will be lost or reallocated, their loss would arguably strengthen the left, asfor the first time inyears, progressive parties could form majorities withoutthe European People's Party. In an ironic twist, this may mean that if and when the UK is obliged toimport policies fromthe EU, they will be ofa more social democratic nature thanin the past.

REUTERS/ Vincent Kessler

Members of the European Parliament take part in a voting session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, December 14, 2016.

Moreover, Brexit could alter the balance ofpower withinthe EU inother ways too namely, bystrengthening Germany's position, while weakening smaller states.

VoteWatchdata shows that the UK's main voting allies are Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands Germany almost never votes the same way.

UCL contend this inturn will strengthen the Eurozone, which could replace the single market asthe EU's core and driving force. The UK has long been a staunch skeptic and critic ofthe single currency, withits leadersrepeatedly emphasizingthe need tokeep the Eurozone distinct fromthe EU. British withdrawal bydefinition means the end ofsuch pressure.

While strengthening some EU interests and objectives, Brexit could also have a deleterious impact inother areas.

For instance, Brexit will almost inevitably weaken the EU's global role the only question is how severely. Britain is the EU's foremost military power, and its membership means the EU can access the country's significant diplomatic network, intelligence capabilities and soft power.For instance, the LSE question whether the EU could have imposed sanctions onRussia withoutthe UK's international strength and note that post-Brexit, France would be the only major military power inthe EU, potentially undermining future development ofserious EU military capabilities, such asthe long-awaited EU army.

Brexit could even be the long-term trigger ofthe EU's eventual collapse. The period sincethe June 23 referendum has seen the rise toprominence ofanti-EU politicians incountries such asAustria, Denmark, France,the Netherlandsand Sweden.

Should Britain thrive outsidethe bloc, the case forother countries exiting would be strongly emboldened.

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The Economic and Political Impact of Brexit on the European Union - Sputnik International