In fact, opinion polls before and after the vote concurred that the main issue for Leavers was democracy. An exit poll of 12,369 people, for example, found that 49 percent of Leavers had been motivated by the desire to bring decision making back to Britain, and only 33 percent by wanting more control of immigration.
Ive learned in politics that almost no one listens to the other side. Rather than going to the source, people read allies reports of what the other side is supposed to have said. If a British person tells you that the vote was all about immigration, I can almost guarantee that you are talking to a Remainer. Those among my friends who voted to stay in the European Union didnt weigh and then dismiss the economic and democratic cases against membership; they never heard them.
The same confirmation bias can be seen in their determination to find bad economic news. Here is a selection of British reports from the past two weeks: Unemployment fell again, as every month since the vote, to 1.49 million (from 1.67 million in June of last year); manufacturing orders are at their highest level since August 1988; retail sales, official figures show, are up 2.9 percent on this time last year.
Exports were up 10 percent year-on-year in May, helped by the long-overdue correction of the exchange rate. Remainers like to point to the fall in sterling, but rarely mention that, before the vote, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of England agreed that Britains currency, seen as a haven from the travails of the euro, was artificially expensive.
Continental Europeans evidently still regard the British economy as attractive; more of them are working in Britain than ever before. As for the supposed decline of London, a number of European banks, including Deutsche Bank and ING, have grown their operations here since the referendum. Last year, Wells Fargo spent 300 million (about $392 million) on its new European headquarters in London. The latest survey from the Robert Walters City Jobs Index, for July, reported that hiring in financial services was up 13 percent year-on-year.
You may think Im prone to a confirmation bias of my own. But its only fair to contrast what has happened since the Brexit vote with what was predicted during the campaign. Remain campaigners told us to expect a recession in 2016; in fact, Britain grew faster in the six months after the referendum than in the six months before. They told us that the FTSE 100 index of leading companies share prices would collapse; in fact, British stocks performed strongly after the Brexit vote. They told us that Scotland would leave Britain; in fact, support for separatism has collapsed, and the Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has shelved her planned independence referendum.
Most people, whichever way they voted, are celebrating the good news. But a few Euro-fanatics, disproportionately prominent on the BBC and at The Financial Times, are acting like doomsday cultists, constantly postponing the date of their promised apocalypse. First, a Leave vote was supposed to wreck the economy. Then, it became wait until we begin the disengagement. Now its wait until you see what a bad deal we get from the European Union.
Its odd. The people who are the most pro-union are generally the most convinced that the union will act in a self-harming way out of spite. I have a higher opinion of our European allies. But even if I didnt, Id still expect a deal. Adam Smith observed that it is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. It is not from the benevolence of the European Union that we expect a free-trade agreement: Exchange makes everyone richer.
If you want a picture of Britains future relationship with the European Union, think of Canadas with the United States. Canadians have a type of federation on their doorstep that they decline to join, but with which they enjoy the closest possible diplomatic, military and economic ties. Two years from now, in a similar vein, the European Union will have lost a bad tenant and gained a good neighbor.
Daniel Hannan (@DanielJHannan), Conservative of South East England, is a member of the European Parliament and the author, most recently, of What Next: How to Get the Best from Brexit.
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A version of this op-ed appears in print on August 1, 2017, in The International New York Times.
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The Good News on Brexit They're Not Telling You - New York Times