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The UKs goals for the impending Article 50 negotiations with the European Union are clearer now the Government has published its white paper setting out what it wants. In the Commons David Davis confirmed that Britain has no interest in staying in the single market or even partial membership of the EU customs union. It is full political and economic isolationism. Nevertheless fully cutting the UK out of Europe will take well into the next decade.

The German election in September is now the event to watch as, regardless of Theresa Mays White Paper wish list, no real negotiations will start until there is a German government in place and that may not happen until the end of the year.

The timetable goes like this. Once Mays Article 50 notification letter arrives in Brussels next month, it is sent to the 27 remaining EU member states. They will then decide what mandate to give Michel Barnier, the European Commission's chief Brexit negotiator, when heads of government meet at the June EU Council meeting.

The Article 50 negotiations wont make any progress during the summer break or in the build-up to French and German elections, scheduled for 23 April and 24 September respectively.

No one knows the outcome of the German election. But speaking to German industrialists last month Angela Merkel told them not to play games over Brexit. The German priority is to maintain the single market of 27. Last year the Eurozone grew faster than the US economy and unemployment is coming down. Merkel insisted that there could be no partial, sectorial or special deals for Britain.

As the German foreign ministrys top Brexit negotiator told me, after Brexit, Britain becomes a third country In that means we have the same status as other nations that want to cut a trade deal with the EU. Other G7 economic powers like the US or Japan have no automatic, unfettered access to the worlds biggest market unless their firms and banks open offices or factories inside the EU not in a third country as the UK will become.

After the German election in September there will be a laborious three months of coalition building, party conferences to accept or reject the contract drawn up between the governing parties whoever they are.

So we have to wait for the appointment of a new German Foreign Minister at the end of the year. Since the German Foreign Ministry is in charge of Brexit negotiations there will be no settled Brexit policy from Berlin. On what the UK has to pay, if hopes that some access for the City is feasible, whether the open border in Northern Ireland or the rights of 10,000 UK citizens in Gibraltar to cross the frontier from Spain every day can be maintained, or whether there can be parallel discussion on a future UK-EU trade deal for at least 12 long months.

Government publishes Brexit White Paper setting out plans for leaving EU

And without a German line there is no EU 27 line. Any final deal has to be ratified by 27 EU governments and parliaments and if it includes proposed UK discriminations against citizens of any EU member states in terms of work, residence or travel visas it will arouse national political opposition in any EU member states Britain wants to treat differently from others.

The withdrawal treaty ratification process needs a minimum of six months before March 2019 when Britain secures political Brexit before the next European Commission, Parliament and Council of Ministers begin work in May 2019.

That means there is a short nine months between January 2018 and October 2018 to conclude the legal language that divorces Britain from Europe. That may be all the negotiators can do a limited divorce settlement decree nisi. The final divorce and the future relationship with the continent Britain shares with other nations will take many years with Britain on the outside looking in.

Denis MacShane is a former UK Minister for Europe, His book, Brexit: How Britain Left Europe, is published by IB Tauris.

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We're heading for a quickie divorce from the European Union but that's when the problems will really start - The Independent

European Union President Donald Tusk's diplomatic bombshell listed the Trump administration as a threat alongside China, Russia, terrorism and radical Islam, adding that "worrying declarations by the new American administration all make our future highly unpredictable."

"The change in Washington puts the European Union in a difficult situation; with the new administration seeming to put into question the last 70 years of American foreign policy," Tusk said in a letter to EU members.

The astonishing break from diplomatic practice stems from reasons that range from the personal to the broadly geopolitical.

Tusk's stark description about a close ally of seven decades reflects deep unease about President Donald Trump's take on European institutions. He's called NATO "obsolete," dismissed the 28-member EU as a "vehicle for Germany" and publicly said he's had "a very bad experience" with the EU as a businessman.

There is concern that Trump's comments will not only undermine the EU, but benefit Russia, which would prefer a weakened NATO and a strained Europe-US alliance.

And then there is deep wariness about Trump's chief strategist Stephen Bannon -- not just because of his anti-EU views and influence on the President but because his website Breitbart News is looking to expand into Europe. Diplomats said there's concern the site's cocktail of fake news and conspiracies could impact upcoming European elections.

"Tusk's letter speaks to one challenge Europeans see -- Trump's skepticism," said Fran Burwell, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. "But there's another challenge in Bannon," who is close to populist European politicians such as France's Marion le Pen and her aunt Marine, leader of the National Front.

While some experts champion a move away from the EU and multilateral organizations, many diplomats and analysts said the new US administration seems to be trying to rewrite the terms of the US-EU alliance in ways that are potentially destabilizing.

Tusk's "dramatic language is something you wouldn't expect. It's extremely worrying, but I can see why. Trump's policies to the EU are completely unprecedented," said Stefan Lehne, a former EU diplomat from Austria now with Carnegie Europe. "Every Brit and European was socialized to expect the US to lead on every international crisis. Now you have a US president who wouldn't mind at all if the EU fell apart."

Lehne notes that Tusk's statement comes as the EU faces Russian assertiveness, a refugee crisis, rising populist movements in Europe, and critical elections in France, the Netherlands and possibly Italy.

"There's a lot at stake and all these negative dynamics amount to a crisis. Tusk seems to feel if all this comes together, if the EU doesn't come together, it will come apart. It is really a difficult moment."

Burwell describes it as "really earth shattering for many. It's a fundamental challenge."

Nile Gardiner of the Heritage Foundation agreed it's a "sea change," but sees it as a positive.

"The old arguments in favor of European integration no longer apply," he said. "The winds of change are sweeping through Europe with a drive toward sovereignty, self-determination, decentralization of power. Donald Tusk is in a state of denial as to the trajectory in which Europe is moving. President Trump has a better understanding."

Trump shows little love for the EU, saying at a Friday press conference with British Prime Minister Theresa May that he had a "very bad experience" in which "getting the approvals from Europe was very, very tough." Trump seemed to be referring to an EU ruling against a wall he wanted to build at an Irish golf course he owns because it would endanger protected snails.

The State Department referred requests for comment about Tusk's letter to the White House, which did not respond. The EU mission to the US said Tusk's letter speaks for itself.

In that letter inviting member states to a meeting on Friday, Tusk said, "We cannot surrender to those who want to weaken or invalidate the Transatlantic bond, without which global order and peace cannot survive. We should remind our American friends of their own motto: United we stand, divided we fall."

Derek Chollet, a senior adviser for security and defense at the German Marshall Fund, said a divided Europe and a weaker US-Europe relationship could make it harder for the US to find partners to work with -- particularly on global security issues -- there could be economic fallout that hurts US businesses, and it could leave Russia "empowered and getting everything it wants -- a US divided from Europe and an EU that is weakened and perhaps breaking apart -- without having to do anything. "

"To the extent that Trump seeks to undermine or weaken the EU, that benefits Russia," said Chollet. "This is a softball pitch over the plate to (Russian President) Vladimir Putin."

Gardiner, of the Heritage Foundation, said Russia would prefer to deal with a weak EU than individual countries. "Sovereign nations can do more than the lowest common denominator," Gardiner said.

Burwell added that one of May's messages for Trump was a request not to weaken the EU. "They are cooperating very strongly with Europe, the EU, in terms of sharing intelligence -- when she was Home Secretary she was central to that," said Burwell, "so the message was 'we're leaving but we still want them strong.' "

While the administration hasn't yet articulated a policy that would actively undermine the EU, Chollet said, "the fact that Trump has embraced people like Nigel Farage," the leader of the Brexit movement "who seeks to undermine the EU, and that advisers like Steve Bannon are on the rise, it's leaving Europeans asking questions whether the US is a reliable ally."

Several diplomats said anxiety is running high in Europe, with leaders quietly advising people to wait, avoid commenting on every Trump tweet, and see what the US actually does.

Lehne, the former EU diplomat, said that there might be a shift in tone coming. He pointed out that it's still so early in the Trump administration that the President doesn't yet have in place a full Cabinet that might reflect broader and less ideological views.

Leone said he was "quite sure" that former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, the nominee for secretary of state, "has a different view of international cooperation than Mr. Trump himself. Trump will have to work with his Cabinet, Lehne said, "and he'll have to listen to them to some extent. What we've seen in this week is probably misleading because it expresses the views of a very small circle around him and not reflective of the larger group."

One reality check, analysts and diplomats said, might be the EU's strength as a trade bloc. It represents a market that is currently larger than the US and without the UK, will only be slightly smaller. Lehne said the economic underpinning of the EU makes it more resilient than some people realize, as transnational supply lines and free movement act as a powerful unifier.

And it may bring the US business community into the conversation on behalf of the EU, Burwell said.

"If you talk to US companies, the idea that the EU might break apart and you may have to deal with 28 different countries -- there's no way," she said. "If you don't think the EU is important, just ask these tech companies that look at Europe as a super regulator on issues they care about like privacy."

If Trump tries to make bilateral trade deals with member states, he'll run into a legal roadblock, said one diplomat, because trade negotiations have to be done through the EU capital in Brussels.

Going forward, Lehne said he thinks Trump may simply try to avoid dealing much with EU leaders like Tusk. "He's clearly going to talk to the capitals of the bigger states and if he runs into difficulties will try to play one off the other," Lehne said.

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European Union president trashes Trump as 'threat' - CNN

The former Ukip leader blasted Eurocrats while speaking on Fox News following a heated clash in the European Parliament on Wednesday after he defended the US Presidents travel ban.

He said the ban, which sees citizens from Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen temporarily barred along with all refugees, was being used as an excuse to attack President Trump.

The real reason isnt that, said Mr Farage. The real reason is this new American administration does not respect supranational organisations like the European Union.

It believes in nation states and these guys here [in Europe] they were scared after Brexit, theyre now terrified by Trump.

FOX NEWSGETTY

This new American administration does not respect supranational organisations like the European Union

Nigel Farage

The MEP claimed the European Union was scared the US could now freeze them out of trade deals and trigger the end for the bloc.

He said: What theyre terrified of is this that this incredible structure that has been built up here in Brussels I mean its been one of the best-paid jobs, one of the best pension provisions for tens of thousands of people the world has ever seen.

And what they know is, not just with Brexit but every country in Europe, the populations are saying what on earth is this all about, why dont we run our countries and make our own laws.

And there have been some hints coming out from the Trump administration that they would like to do trade deals and business with countries bilaterally, bypassing the bureaucrats or the European Union so they fear that Trump effectively will freeze them out.

EPA

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US President Donald J. Trump attends a meeting on cyber security, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, in Washington, DC, USA, 31 January 2017

GETTY

The comments come after EU leaders condemned Mr Trumps travel ban from Muslim countries.

The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, is among those who have aired concerns.

In a letter, issued ahead of an EU summit in Malta, he said: "We cannot surrender to those who want to weaken or invalidate the Transatlantic bond, without which global order and peace cannot survive.

We should remind our American friends of their own motto: United we stand, divided we fall."

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European Union 'TERRIFIED' of Trump as US turns against 'supranational' blocs - Express.co.uk

Nigel Farage, a member of the European Parliament from England and a supporter of President Trump, said the European Union is "terrified" of what the new leader of the free world may do.

Farage, who made an impassioned speech on the floor of the European Parliament in Brussels in support of Trump's travel ban order, said that some of his fellow parliamentarians are using that issue as a wedge because of Trump's position on the EU itself.

"The real reason is this new American administration does not respect supernational organizations like the EU; they believe in nation-states.

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Trump has hinted that the United States is now more interested in conducting bilateral trade deals with individual countries, "bypassing the bureaucrats" at the EU, Farage said.

Farage said leaders like Jean Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, the leader of the EU, and Angela Merkel of Germany who have previously supported welcoming thousands from troubled areas in the Middle East, are "in denial" of Trump's view on the immigration issue.

He also said that watching Democrats unite against Trump at every turn reminds him of Labour leaders in Britain who "refused to accept" the Brexit vote.

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Nigel Farage: European Union Is Terrified of Donald Trump - Fox News Insider

EU chief Donald Tusk warned on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump's administration was a "threat" facing the bloc along with China, Russia and radical Islam.

In a strongly worded letter to EU leaders ahead of a summit in Malta, Tusk said the bloc must take "spectacular steps" to stay together and should take advantage of Trump's isolationism to boost trade with other countries.

The former Polish prime minister said in the wake of the Brexit vote the European Union faced "three threats" that made the 28-nation bloc's situation "more dangerous than ever before."

"The first threat, an external one, is related to the new geopolitical situation in the world and around Europe," European Council president Tusk said in the letter obtained by AFP.

"An increasingly, let us call it, assertive China, especially on the seas, Russia's aggressive policy towards Ukraine and its neighbours, wars, terror and anarchy in the Middle East and in Africa, with radical Islam playing a major role, as well as worrying declarations by the new American administration all make our future highly unpredictable," Tusk said.

"Particularly the change in Washington puts the European Union in a difficult situation; with the new administration seeming to put into question the last 70 years of American foreign policy," Tusk added.

The second threat, said Tusk, was the internal challenge posed by a rise in anti-EU nationalism, and the third was the "state of mind of the pro-European elites" who were too keen to pander to populism to win votes.

EU leaders have become increasingly concerned by Trump's recent ban on migration from seven Muslim countries, plus comments in which he appeared to back Britain's exit from the EU and the eventual break-up of the union.

All 28 EU leaders will discuss Europe's migration crisis at Friday's summit in Valletta, Malta.

They will then meet without British Prime Minister Theresa May to discuss the future after Brexit, and preparations for a summit in Rome in March to mark the 60th anniversary of the EU's founding treaty.

Tusk added that "only together can EU countries be fully independent. Disintegration will only result in dependence on USA, Russia and China."

"We must therefore take assertive and spectacular steps that would change the collective emotions and revive the aspiration to raise European integration to the next level," he said.

These included securing Europe's borders, boosting the economy and increased cooperation on defence and security, Tusk added.

Europe should in the meantime seek to boost its own trade with the rest of the world even as the United States tightens its frontiers.

"We should use the change in the trade strategy of the US to the EU's advantage by intensifying our talks with interested partners, while defending our interests at the same time," Tusk added.

But he warned that European-American ties were still essential for the future.

"We cannot surrender to those who want to weaken or invalidate the transatlantic bond, without which global order and peace cannot survive," he said.

"We should remind our American friends of their own motto: United we stand, divided we fall."

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European Union head says Trump is a 'threat' to Europe - PRI