Mediaboss Marketing

BRUSSELS Since Prime Minister Theresa May set out her Brexit goals last week, interest in Britain has focused on the future trade deals she may one day strike with the United States and other powers, as well as with the European Union.

In Brussels and European capitals, that looks like putting the cart before the horse. "They're talking about their future relationships," said one EU official preparing for talks with London. "But first we need to get divorced. This is not going to be easy. Frankly, it's going to be very, very messy."

In diplomatic language, the European Commission's spokesman Margaritis Schinas told a news conference this week: "First, one needs to agree on the terms for an orderly separation and then, on the basis of this, build a future new, good relationship."

As with other divorces, the bitterest battle may be over money. And there is no certainty that any settlement can be agreed at all.

"Britains payments to the EU budget and the issue of the EU quickly starting talks on an FTA (free trade agreement) with Britain will be linked," said a second senior EU official.

"There cannot be discussions of a future relationship without first regulating the issue of an orderly separation."

EU negotiators reckon Britain has a weak hand to play; May must accept a two-year guillotine on talks that she hopes will end with a deal to keep "maximum" British access to EU markets while pulling Britain out of the single market and its obligations.

Put simply, if May wants to draft an FTA in only two years as she says -- a goal that prompts head-shaking in Brussels -- continentals think they can hold her hostage with the threat of trade tariffs from 2019 unless she settles British debts.

Many discount as bluster May's warning that she would rather have no deal than a bad deal, walking away without free trade and daring continentals to take a hit to their own exports.

But some diplomats voice concern that London may be tempted to flounce out without paying EU bills worth tens of billions.

YOUR BILL: 60 BILLION EUROS

May insists Britain wants to remain a friend and constructive partner for the EU. It would hardly enhance Britain's reputation among future global trade partners to flee with bills unpaid.

The other EU member states want it to pay its share of the spending commitments that were agreed when it was a member, stretching out some years, as well as possibly funds to cover the pensions of British EU staff.

There will, however, be differences over the size of the bill, estimated informally by EU officials at very roughly 60 billion euros -- more than Britain spends on defense each year.

"I can see this turning very bloody over money," said a person who has had preliminary contact with negotiators on both sides.

EU officials have prepared arguments to counter suggestions that Britain should be credited with a share of EU assets -- buildings, say -- to offset what it will owe Brussels on leaving.

The bloc's negotiators will argue that Britain was not asked to pay extra for a share of existing EU assets when it joined in 1973, so it has no right to demand repayment of any share now.

Filling the hole left by the bloc's second biggest economy in the EU budget is already causing jitters as the remaining 27 brace for the seven-yearly blood ritual of financial planning.

German leaders see a grim prospect of picking up the biggest tab, while the ex-communist eastern states, who are the major net beneficiaries of EU spending, fear they will lose out.

British officials say they can use the money card to divide the 27. On the EU side, diplomats are saying that if London tries that, it will find its hopes of a quick free trade deal put on hold.

Other knotty issues to be settled in the withdrawal treaty include border arrangements, notably in Ireland, and the rights of EU and British expatriates. Brussels has accused May of underestimating the problem by calling for a deal on that right now.

(Writing by Alastair Macdonald; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

MANILA Luis Singson, a larger-than-life Filipino tycoon who has brought the Miss Universe pageant to Manila, has much in common with the man who owned the franchise two years ago: U.S. President Donald J. Trump.

PHILADELPHIA/MEXICO CITY The White House on Thursday floated the idea of imposing a 20 percent tax on goods from Mexico to pay for a wall at the southern U.S. border, sending the peso tumbling and deepening a crisis between the two neighbors.

WASHINGTON Jordan's King Abdullah will begin a visit to the United States on Monday, the Jordanian embassy said on Thursday, the first Arab leader to hold talks with the new administration of President Donald Trump.

Read the original here:
'Show me the money': divorce first, then trade deal, EU tells UK - Reuters

Fixed-wingunmanned aircraft would monitor movements of commercial vessels and be able to home-in on speedboats missed by satellites

DRONES could be used to patrol the English Channel for illegal immigrant boats.

The EU wants to use them to spy on suspicious craft that are not picked up by satellites.

Getty Images

The European Union is in talks with European Maritime Safety Agency boss Markku Mylly over launching the flying spies along the continents northern coast.

Getty Images

Getty Images

Getty Images

The fixed-wing unmanned aircraft would monitor the movements of commercial vessels and be able to home-in on the smallest speedboats that are missed by satellites.

A team of 17 would pilot them from Lisbon in Portugal, and 66 million has been set aside to built the first fleet.

Getty Images

Europes air-traffic controllers would first need to agree rules to ensure they do not crash with large aircraft.

Read the original:
European Union reveals plans to have fleet of drones patrolling the English Channel for illegal immigrant boats - The Sun

Mr Malloch, who is a longstanding supporter of the World Economic Forum and CEO of Global Fiduciary GovernanceLLC, a strategic advisory firm, also predicted that Brussels would back down over its refusal to negotiate an early trade deal with Britain.

At present EU leaders are sticking to the position that they will only commence trade negotiations after Britain has completed the two-year Article 50 divorce process, and not before.

"I think it is an absurd proposition and may be a legalism," he said. "There are going to be all kinds of things happening behind closed doors and you can call them what you like."

In any event, added Mr Malloch, by the time the EU-UK negotiations reach crunch point, the European Union might look very different than it does today,as current political realities are shaken up by populist forces in the Netherlands, France and Germany.

"I personally am not certain that there will be a European Union with which to have [free trade] negotiations," he said.

Excerpt from:
Euro could 'collapse' in next 18 months, warns the man tipped as Trump's EU ambassador pick - Telegraph.co.uk

BERLIN German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel warned on Thursday that the European Union could fall apart if populists in France or the Netherlands win in elections this year.

"The French presidential elections this spring are bitter fateful elections for Europe," Gabriel told the Bundestag lower house of parliament.

He added: "After Brexit last year, if enemies of Europe manage again in the Netherlands or in France to get results then we face the threat that the largest civilization project of the 20th century, namely the European Union, could fall apart."

(Reporting by Michelle Martin and Michael Nienaber; Writing by Joseph Nasr)

PARIS France's Francois Fillon on Thursday said allegations his wife was paid for a fake job were attempts to harm his presidential bid, adding that they only strengthened his resolve to run in the election.

BEIRUT Syrian Islamist rebel group Ahrar al-Sham said on Thursday six other rebel factions had joined its ranks in northwestern Syria in order to fend off a major assault by a powerful jihadist group.

BEIRUT Syrian rebels urged President Donald Trump to fulfil a pledge to create safe zones in their country, but analysts doubted he would proceed with a step that coulddrag Washington deeper into war, hasten Syria's fragmentation and risk conflict with Russia.

Read the original post:
EU could fall apart if populists win Dutch, French elections - Germany's Gabriel - Reuters UK

Professor Ted Mallochsuggested the doomed eurozone could face a real problem in the next 18 months.

In a devastating blow to the EUs single currency, he said he would short the euro taking a market position which bets on the value of a currency falling.

Professor Malloch told the BBC: The one thing I would do in 2017 is short the euro.

I think it is a currency that is not only in demise but has a real problem and could collapse in the coming year, year and a half.

BBCGETTY

I think it is a currency that is not only in demise but has a real problem and could collapse

Ted Malloch

I am not the only person or economist of that point of view.

Someone as acclaimed as Joseph Stiglitz the famous World Bank economist has written an entire book on this subject.

Although not yet confirmed in the role, Professor Malloch has been widely reported as being President Trumps desired choice for the Brussels role.

The economist and former deputy executive secretary to the United Nations in Geneva went for an interview with the Presidents team at Trump Tower earlier this month.

GETTY

But he also predicted his potential ambassadorial role with the bloc could be at threat, as he predicted wholesale change and reform over the next few years.

Having been asked about the possibility of the EU-US trade deal being signed under President Trumps watch, Professor Malloch replied: I personally am not certain that there will be a European Unionwith to have such negotiations.

Will there potentially be numerous bi-lateral with various European countries? I think the prospect, again in a changed political reality, is greater for that.

The American added: I think people are talking about the redefinition of the European Union, whether it is a core number of countries and a periphery that moves aside, key people that stay in the Union, those that fall away.

These are decisions that are going to be made by European people in democratic elections over the course of the next 18 months, and some of these elections, frankly, are coming as soon as the next few months.

Prime Minister Theresa May, on Friday, will become the first foreign leader to visit the President, exactly a week after his inauguration.

The pair are expected to discuss Nato, immigration and, most importantly, a post-Brexit deal between the two nations, with President Trump previously spoken about striking such a deal as soon as possible.

Professor Malloch said that Britain could agree a mutually beneficial free trade deal with America in as little as 90 days.

He continued by saying that outside the single market and customs union, the UK could bypass the bureaucrats in Brussels, adding that it would be absurd that EU leaders attempt to block negotiations between the two nations.

Getty Images

1 of 7

Continued cooperation with the EU to tackle terrorism and international crime.

But Professor Malloch did say that Mrs May will leave the White House on Friday without a trade deal, he said: Obviously there are things to iron out, certainly there are differences and compromises to make, but it can be done.

There wont be a deal signed in the White House on Friday, but there could be an agreement for a framework going forward where people are empowered to have that kind of conversations behind closed doors and it could take as little as 90 days.

That is very positive and it sends a signal that the United States is behind Great Britain in its hour of need.

Continue reading here:
Eurozone CRISIS: Trump's likely EU ambassador hints euro 'could FAIL' within 18 months - Express.co.uk