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The surge of Marine Le Pen and the political right in France could signal the end of the European Union and the evolution of the European project.

Major elections will soon be held in the Netherlands, France and Germany what some have argued will be the most divided and diabolical political environment Europe has had in decades.

Since the major wars that divided the continent, the cosmopolitanism that brought divisions in Europe together are now under considerable opposition. Europe continues to face escalating influences from the Russian government, rampant economic inequality, unequal responsibilities of refugee influx and growing threats of terrorism.

Nomi Prins, a former Managing Director on Wall Street and economic historian, says what all this means is that we should expect, More QE manifestations from the European Central Bank, a weaker euro, more bubbles in major European stock markets and greater presence from conservative, protectionist politicians.

The conservative, protectionist politicians that she highlights are making great strides currently in France ahead of April elections. While Brexit might chip away at the European experiment, France offers a petri dish of Euro-divisions between the far left and the surging right.

European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici told CNBC, Im confident. I know my citizens and my compatriots well and know they are not going to elect a candidate who is proposing France exiting (Europe). That would be the end of the European project.

If that sounds familiar, it could ring true to the type of narrative that was being heard in the U.S on various talk shows during the weeks and months leading up to Trumps victory.

During the CNBC interview with Moscovic, who is considered the EUs tax chief, he held reluctance and outright opposition to the idea that France could elect Le Pen. However, he did offer up what that election would cast for the future of the European Union.

If Marine Le Pen comes in office, if she asks for a referendum on Frexit, what would Europe be about? Europe was founded precisely in order that France and Germany and others work together in a common project.

He went on to say, But this wont happen its just to say how crazy it will be if she is elected that is why precisely it cannot happen, it wont happen, it must not happen.

But the reality is, these are uncertain times.

French elections will be held April 23. The top two candidates will then will go through to a May 7 run-off French election.

In a recent French poll, the first-round in the election would have Le Pen, the anti-euro candidate, ahead with 27% of the vote, where she has risen in poling lately. The next two candidates follow with 20% each and remain stagnant in polling.

The poll also shows that in the second round Le Pen would currently lose 58% to 42%. However, there is still considerable time and opportunity between now and then.

In February 2017, Europeans celebrated the 25th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty being signed. Prior to that 12 nation major Treaty signing, Europe was in turmoil.

The wounds of the Cold War were still fresh. The Berlin Wall had just fallen, Germany was still navigating reunification. Eastern European states were questionably shifting toward democratic governments.

The reality is that the left wing French opposition candidates lead over Le Pen has been cut in half over the past two weeks. Security fears and surging euro-skepticism, core issues attributed to the far-right party, are pushing the polls in France to much tighter margins.

The unification of Europe, through the Maastricht Treaty, brought those economic and political divisions away from further conflict.

If Le Pen, the National Front leader of the French right party, was to claim victory it could bring mass political and economic instability. Speculation is that the EU as it is known today would become extinct.

Those investors involved in European bonds have already shifted toward seeing safe haven outlets as political uncertainty mounts. Following Le Pens party calling for an overall exit from the euro zone, trading of French bonds spiked and risk spreads have opened up considerable margins with German bunds.

One major European investor penned that, in the face of a French exit from the EU:

A financial system that already suffers from weak net income margins and more than 160 billion euros in non-performing loans, would collapse as these bad loans escalate and the losses in the banks bond portfolios eat away their core capital.

This would inevitably lead to Greek-style capital controls and bank runs as the entities would lose liquidity support from the ECB.

Under these outcomes, France leaving the euro currency could bring about the biggest sovereign securities default ever seen.

This economic and banking turmoil could be the biggest negative impact and cause a global spillover. If France was to elect Le Pen and push for an exit of the EU, there would be no clean separation from the union and the U.K is attempting.

Turning to Jim Rickards, author of the Road to Ruin, who continues to update his macroeconomic analysis on the situation noted that Le Pen wont win, but shell drive markets and media mad in the meantime.

Rickards goes on, I dont think Marine Le Pen will win in France. Because weve had so many shocks, people are getting set up for more shocks such as a potential victory of Marine Le Pen or a loss by Angela Merkel.

Applying his forecasts and analysis Rickards remarked he is taking the other side of the equation. The shock will be that there wont be a shock, namely that mainstream parties will win in France and Germany. He warned cautiouslythat, there are always other shocks on the horizon to pay attention to.

Rickards could not be more spot on in the media madness. But will he be right again after correctly seeing through polls and forecasting the Brexit vote and the Trump victory?

While the Trump election and French politics are very different, the similarity in media messaging and skeptical polling cannot be ignored.

Could France surprise the world? Could this be the end to the European Union as we know it?

Stay turned,

Craig Wilson, @craig_wilson7 for the Daily Reckoning

Read the original post:
How France Could End the European Union - Daily Reckoning

NEW DELHI: The European Union said it is ready to accommodate more Indian IT professionals and denounced any form of protectionism in global trade, amid anxiety in India over the Trump administration's possible clampdown on H1B visa.

Pushing for deeper trade ties with India, a delegation of European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs+ also expressed "regret" over failure by both sides to resume the stalled dialogue to firm the long-pending EU-India trade and investment pact.

Criticising the new US government's protectionist rhetoric+ which triggered fears in Europe as well, head of the delegation David McAllister said Europe is "open" for allowing more Indian professionals who are high on demand.

"Europe is open for people with high demand. Indian people are highly skilled. Our IT sector would not have been successful if we did not have skilled professionals from India," he said.

Soon after taking over last month, Trump had decided to overhaul the work visa programmes like the H-1B and L1, a move that will adversely hit the lifeline of Indian tech firms and professionals+ in the US.

Pressing for early resumption of negotiations+ for the EU -India Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA), McAllister said the delegation urged the Indian leaders to resume the talks as the pact will significantly boost two-way trade.

"We deeply regret that we are not being able to move ahead. We will use the visit to call for resumption of talks for the agreement," he told reporters.

The EU delegation, the second one here, will hold talks with a number of Union Ministers, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, the Vice Chairman of NITI Ayog Arvind Panagariya and Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan among others.

An European Parliament Delegation for relations with India is also in the country and it had strongly sought resumption of talks for the trade pact during its meetings with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

The BTIA talks have been stalled since May 2013, when both sides failed to bridge substantial gaps on crucial issues, including data security status for IT sector.

Launched in June 2007, negotiations for the proposed agreement have witnessed many hurdles as both the sides have major differences on crucial issues.

Delegation member Urmas Paet said the EU would like to have the trade pact with India on the lines of the recently concluded EU-Canada trade deal, which features a new mechanism on investment protection and dispute settlement.

Follow this link:
European Union says it is open to accommodate more Indian skilled professionals - Times of India

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NB For completeness we have included a number of small countries which are geographically within the EU but not formally a part of it. E.G. Andorra, Holy See / Vatican City, Monaco, San Marino. These countries tend to adopt EU practices for time & currency, etc.

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Time in Europe / European Union (EU) | Greenwich Mean Time

U.S. president Donald Trump pledged to put America first, stop other countries from taking advantage of the United States, and shake up Washingtons business-as-usual mind-set. This resulted in inconsistent and erratic policy in his administrations first two weeks. From putting Tehran on notice, to signing an executive order banning refugees and immigrants from seven Muslim majority countries, to jeopardizing longstanding U.S. alliances, President Trump continues to undermine EU member states security, interests and citizens. The EU must react to mitigate the broader strategic implications of the drastic changes to U.S. policy and check President Trump.

A major component of President Trumps Middle East policy is ideologically driven opposition to Iran. His team views Tehran as a regime led by mad mullahs, driven by an Islamist revolutionary ideology and hell-bent on opposing America. The administration blows Iranian capabilities out of proportion and deeply misunderstands its intentions. In Yemen, Trumps team follows the Saudi linethe Houthis are a puppet of Iran and a threat to the United Statesbut the reality is more nuanced. And when Iran tested a medium-range missile earlier this month, the Trump administration put Tehran on notice and imposed new sanctions on it.

The fear in European capitals is that all this puts the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran at risk. The stronger anti-Iran tone means that de-escalating minor crises becomes more difficult. And there are likely to be challenges to the deal from both sides.

During the campaign, Trump vowed to tear up the deal. But the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was not just a bilateral U.S.-Iran deal; France, the UK, Germany, China and Russia were also involved. For Europe, the deal removes a key concern: Irans nuclear program. It also opens the doors to dialogue with Tehran as a way to overcome other concerns, something Brussels has already begun through its joint EU-Iran High Level political dialogue, which discusses everything from trade deals to human rights. The EUs High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, successfully leveraged the deal to engage not just the moderates but also hard-liners in Tehran on several fronts, including on tough issues like human rights. To be sure, the agreement has flaws, but even skeptics, including U.S. allies in the Gulf and analysts in Washington, have called for Trump to adhere to its terms.

The new administrations more belligerent tone towards Iran also affects the battle against ISIS in Iraq. While Irans role may be worrisome, there is no denying that the United States, the EU, and Iran have overlapping interests in Iraq. Iran is a key stakeholder in the fight against ISIS, and sees combatting ISIS as a foreign- and security-policy priority, to which it has committed substantial resources. The United States and Iran have coordinated on certain efforts, resulting in successful missions. An increasingly belligerent tone makes this type of dialogue and coordination less likely, ultimately jeopardizing the fight against ISIS in Iraq.

President Trump outlined his administrations focus on countering radical Islamic terrorism. As part of this, he signed a controversial executive order, restricting refugees and immigrants from seven Muslim-majority countries: Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen. President Trump claimed this wasnt a Muslim ban. But thats not how its seen. While today the ban has been suspended, the damage is done: if Muslims think this was a Muslim ban, thats all that matters.

Far from helping the West combat ISIS and its ideologyone of Trumps main foreign-policy goalsthe executive order was a gift to terrorists. Its the perfect recruitment tool even after it was suspended. ISIS hasnt been able to sell its narrative of the clash of Islam and the West to the broader Muslim world so far, and such action from the White House allows it to do so. The order also helps radicalize disenfranchised Muslims, and undermines moderate Muslims combatting extremist ideologies.

The ban also further undermines the nuclear deal with Iran. Iran is one of the seven countries targeted. The executive order and the changes to the Visa Waiver Program last year sent conflicting messages to investors and businesses hoping to enter the Iranian market after the nuclear deal. Should Iran be unable to reap the benefits of the deal, itll have less incentive to stick to its end of the bargain.

But perhaps more significant to Brussels and leaders of European countries is President Trumps blatant disregard for managing alliances and relationships with allies. Rhetoric towards traditional allies and friends such as Mexico, Australia and even some of the Gulf Arab states, as well as NATO, highlights the presidents contempt for anyone who criticizes the direction the United States is taking. Instead, President Trump is cozying up to Russias Vladimir Putin, whose actions have threatened European security.

See more here:
Trump vs. the European Union: The Coming Storm - The National Interest Online

The food industry accounts for seven out of every 100 of trade between the European Union and the rest of the world. EURACTIVs partner EFE AGRO reports.

While that number may seem small compared to the business generated by trade in the automotive or energy industries, the agri-food sector is of particular importance to the EU economy and, more importantly, the economy of millions of families.

EU exports of agricultural and food products to third countries not including fish and fisheries products valued more than 123.2 billion in 2015, while imports stood at around 114.1bn. This data from Eurostat, the EUs official statistics office, shows that the EU has an agricultural trade surplus of more than 9bn.

The official statistics show how internal EU trade remains a key pillar of the blocs food economy, although the trend is to seek out and consolidate third country markets.

Javier Sierra, the director of Food and Gastronomy at the Spanish Institute for Foreign Trade (ICEX), told Efeagro that the EU continues to be the world leader in food exports, after overtaking the United States in 2013.

For Sierra, this is the result of the EUs continued support for the food sector, through promotion, budget increases and the opening up of new and interesting commercial opportunities.

Not to mention that an important part of this success is down to the rigorous production standards and quality controls EU food producers are bound by, along with the consolidation of trade relations with China, which is already the second most important export destination.

The trade figures

A look at the EUs trade balance for agri-food products (excluding the fishing and drinks industries) reveals some interesting data, according to the International Trade Centre (ITC).

For example, the EU sells much more cereal, flour, starch and milk products than it buys. The total agricultural trade surplus for 2015 was 9bn, with milk, dairy and egg products alone accounting for more than 8.5bn.

Exports from Spains outward-looking food industry are booming. Since the economic crisis began in 2008, Spanish food exporters have seen six years of growth, expanding the sector by 60%. Euractiv Spain reports.

On the opposite side of the balance sheet stands the fruit and vegetable sector, with a trade deficit of some 18.054bn, followed by coffee and tea, with minus 8.064bn. The EU depends heavily on the international market for these subsectors.

It is also worth highlighting the surplus in live animals, meat and offal (8.113bn) and cereals (4.056bn), while in the seeds and oleaginous fruits subsector (including soy) has a deficit of 7.89bn.

Leaving aside the trade balance, the sectors that move the highest volumes of money, either in imports or exports (both within and outside the EU) are meat, milk and dairy products, fruits and vegetables and cereals.

According to Eurostat, the fruit and vegetable sector stands out for the volumes of money its imports move around within the EU: of the 64bn-worth of imports, 67% (42.88bn) is generated by transactions between EU countries.

Meat and edible offal exports are the most striking in this regard. EU countries exported 38bn-worth of products, of which 88% (33.44) stayed within the bloc.

Seventy-six percent of the EUs 42bn export trade in milk and dairy products, eggs and honey also stayed inside the bloc in 2015.

Exports of cereals, a staple of human and animal diets, accounted for 22.6bn, 58% of which (13.1bn) was generated by trade between EU countries.

Trade flows by continent

The study of trade flows between the EU and the other continents also uncovers some striking facts.

The EU exported 1.7bn of milk, dairy products and eggs to America in 2015 and around 4.4bn-worth of cereals to Africa. In both cases, the EU had a large trade surplus.

In Asia, the bloc sold meat and offal worth 5.4bn, with a surplus of more than 5bn. In Oceania, on the other hand, the EUs meat exports of 336m left a trade deficit of 1.135bn.

Total exports in major EU countries

By country, and only in the sub-sectors of meat, milk, dairy, eggs and fruits and vegetables, German exports valued 23.6bn in 2015 (both inside and outside the EU); France exported around 13bn of goods; the UK, some 12.8bn; and Italy 10bn.

Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Food and Environment (Mapama), Spains agricultural exports (including fishing) reached a total value of 44.1bn in 2015.

This included meat and offal exports worth 3.91bn, with a positive trade balance. Fruit and vegetable exports totalled 13.6bn, also with a positive balance, while the sale of cereals and oilseeds brought in 966m, a clear trade deficit. In milk and dairy products, honey and eggs, Spanish exports exceeded 1.7bn.

Sierra stressed that it is essential for Spain to promote the unique nature of its varied and high-quality product range in order to consolidate its position in the international agri-food market.

The country hopes to do this by encouraging institutional collaboration and promoting gastro-tourism.

Quality, high food safety standards and competitiveness will ensure that Spain and the rest of the EU continue to lead the global food market.

Excerpt from:
The European Union, an agri-food world power EurActiv.com - EurActiv