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[257] Jim Rickards and Rick Rule: Tail risk implications of the drop in oil and the Russian Ruble
EU (European Union) Economic Crisis 2013 - 2014 ; Jim Rickards :: economy 2014, 2014, 2014 economy, gold, gold price, 2014 gold price, gold 2014, gold price ... Our lead story: After a surprise...

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[257] Jim Rickards and Rick Rule: Tail risk implications of the drop in oil and the Russian Ruble - Video

Paris: European Union sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Ukraine are cutting both ways: hurting Russia as well as pinching some big European companies. But economic relief isn't likely any time soon, diplomats and analysts say, since EU divisions make the sanctions tough to overturn.

France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine are trying to set up talks next week in Astana, Kazakhstan, to ease the tensions behind the punitive measures that, along with slumping oil prices and US sanctions, have sent the ruble sinking. The sanctions, and Russian retaliation, have in turn squeezed corporate Europe - including banks, oil companies, machinery makers and food giants that do business with Russia.

European Union rules complicate any attempt to modify the sanctions put into place last year amid the separatist violence in eastern Ukraine and after Russia's annexation of Crimea. A unanimous decision by all 28 EU nations is needed to change the sanctions, and analysts say such unanimity doesn't exist.

The main EU sanctions - which have hit Russian banks and oil companies and have banned arms exports and the export of dual-use goods - are in place until the end of July. A first review of some sanctions could come in March.

Under the combined blow of sanctions and slumping oil prices, the ruble has lost about half its value this year and the Russian economy has drifted into recession. Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised the economy will rebound, but he has failed to offer a specific plan for easing Russia's heavy dependence on oil and gas revenues.

Zsolt Darvas, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, said France and Italy are among the nations more open to lifting the sanctions while Poland, Britain and the Baltic countries want to stand firm.

It's not certain the talks scheduled for Jan. 15 in Astana will take place - diplomats say high-level preparatory talks are planned Friday. French President Francois Hollande told France-Inter radio that he would only attend the Astana talks if progress could be made in easing the tensions.

"The sanctions should be lifted if there's progress. If there's no progress, the sanctions will remain," he said Monday, adding that Putin "of course is not letting on that he has the slightest difficulty."

"The sanctions ... and the decrease of the oil price ... weaken him. He doesn't say it of course, he doesn't let people think that he has any kind of difficulty, but he has some difficulties."

So do some European corporate titans.

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Sanctions Against Russia Could Last Despite Pressure

By Robin Emmott

BRUSSELS Wed Jan 7, 2015 2:21pm GMT

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union made public on Wednesday confidential papers being used to negotiate a free trade deal with the United States, an unprecedented step to deflect criticism from anti-globalisation campaigners that Brussels is drawing up the world's largest trade deal in secret.

The eight thematic texts, which set out Europe's position in areas ranging from sanitary rules to investment in small companies, do not cover all areas of discussions and not all the ideas set out will necessarily be included in the deal.

But their release marks the most significant step by the European Union in its public relations battle with a broad array of campaigners who are determined to block the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

"There are lots of myths and misconceptions floating around about what we want to achieve and what is not in the agreement," EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom told a news conference, detailing the decision to take this step for the first time.

A final deal, which could be concluded at the end of this year, will contain 24 chapters and Malmstrom promised to continue to publish the European Union's papers as progress is made and always after they have been shown to the United States.

Free-trade advocates say the trade agreement will create a market of 800 million people, create millions of jobs and serve as a counterbalance to Russian and Chinese power.

Political parties and campaigners from across Europe opposed to the deal, who have unified under the banner 'Stop TTIP', say an accord will undermine European food and environmental laws and allow U.S. multinationals to bully EU governments into doing their bidding.

Prominent EU lawmaker Ska Keller, the deputy leader of the multinational Greens bloc in the European Parliament, said the transparency initiative remains "a paper tiger" and that the accord is still being negotiated behind Europeans' backs.

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EU publishes confidential papers to defend U.S. trade deal

Berlin, Germany: EU parliament president Martin Schulz, on Wednesday accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of "irresponsible speculation" over suggestions that Greece may be allowed to exit the euro if the far-left wins elections this month.

"The irresponsible speculation and debate over the 'Grexit' (Greek exit from the eurozone) really isn't helping," Schulz said in comments published by the Die Welt daily.

"It should be clear to everyone: there is no question of a withdrawal from the euro. The unsolicited comments which give the people of Greece the idea that it's not for them to decide their future via their votes, but up to Brussels or Berlin could even push electors into the arms of radical forces," the German member of the European parliament warned.

Merkel has come under fire since the Der Spiegel news weekly on Saturday cited sources close to the German government as saying she is prepared to let Greece leave the eurozone if Greeks elect a government that jettisons the country's current austerity course.

The party led by Alexis Tsipras has pledged to reverse reforms imposed by Greece's international creditors and renegotiate its bailout deal.

"The German government considers a eurozone exit (by Greece) to be almost inevitable if opposition leader Alexis Tsipras leads the government after the election and abandons budgetary discipline and does not repay the country's debts," Der Spiegel reported on its website.

Both Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had come to view a potential Greek exit from the 19-member eurozone in a less dramatic light, the report explained.

The German government has denied that any such discussion has taken place.

Greece's parliament was dissolved last week after the assembly failed to agree on a successor to outgoing President Karolos Papoulias in three successive votes.

The German government has denied that any such discussion has taken place.

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European Union Parliament Head Berates 'Irresponsible' Angela Merkel Over Greek Plight

Greece is unlikely to opt out of the European Union according to experts who fear, however, that a "Grexit" could happen by accident and create a global reaction that could reach U.S. shores.

Douglas Elliott of The Brookings Institution says there's little chance of Greece choosing to leave the EU even if the the Greek anti-austerity Syriza party wins the Jan. 25 elections.

Close to three-quarters of Greeks felt that the country must stay in the Euro "at all costs," according to a recent poll, though the Syriza party has demanded that European lenders write off a portion of Greece's debt. That demand is in contrast to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's statement that she doesn't want to grant Greece debt relief if that leaves German taxpayers with the bill.

Concern over Greece's economy and its potential impact on the EU has rattled markets around the world.

Greece's left-wing Syriza party has been clear it does not want to stop using the euro, Elliott told ABC News. Syriza does want to renegotiate the terms of its debt and the requirements for austerity imposed by the EU. Greece's European partners also very much want it to keep using the euro.

"That said, there remains a small chance of a 'Grexit' occurring by accident, if Greece and the rest of Europe make a series of missteps as they negotiate new terms for the aid Greece has received," Elliott said.

Greece would suffer very badly in the short term, probably returning temporarily to "Depression-like conditions" with a big rise in unemployment and shrinkage of the economy, Elliott said. The long-term effects are debatable, however.

"There are reasonable economists who believe the long-term benefits for Greece would outweigh the costs, although I do not share this view," Elliott said.

The impact on the U.S. depends "almost entirely" on whether the rest of Europe would be significantly affected by a Greek withdrawal from the euro, Elliott said, because the Greek economy is relatively small.

Thanassis Stavrakis/AP Photo

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Why American Consumers Should Fear a 'Grexit'