Archive for the ‘European Union’ Category

Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure policies in the EU – ENISA

Vulnerability disclosure has become the focus of attention of cybersecurity experts engaged in strengthening the cybersecurity resilience of the European Union. The valid source of concern comes from the cybersecurity threats looming behind vulnerabilities, as demonstrated by the impact of the Log4Shell vulnerability.

Security researchers and ethical hackers constantly scrutinise ICT systems - both open source and commercial closed source software - to find weaknesses, misconfigurations, software vulnerabilities, etc. A wide range of issues are thus revealed: weak passwords, fundamental cryptographic flaws or deeply nested software bugs.

Identifying vulnerabilities is therefore essential if we want to prevent attackers from exploiting them. It is important to consider that attackers can always develop malware specially designed to exploit vulnerabilities disclosed to the public. Besides the identification itself, vendors can also be reluctant to acknowledge vulnerabilities as their reputation might be damaged as a consequence.

What is CVD?

Coordinated vulnerability disclosure (CVD) is a process by which vulnerabilities finders work together and share information with the relevant stakeholders such as vendors and ICT infrastructure owners.

CVD ensures that software vulnerabilities get disclosed to the public once the vendor has been able to develop a fix, a patch, or has found a different solution.

What are national CVD policies?

National CVD policies are national frameworks of rules and agreements designed to ensure:

What is the situation in the EU?

The report published today maps the national CVD policies in place across the EU, compares the different approaches and, highlights good practices.

The analysis allows a wide disparity to be observed among Member States in relation to their level of CVD policy achievement. At the time the data used in the report was collected, only four Member States had already implemented such a CVD policy, while another four of them were about to do so. The remaining Member States are split into two groups: those currently discussing how to move forward and those who have not yet reached that stage.

What are ENISAs recommendations to promote CVD?

The main recommendations from the analysis of nineteen EU Member States include:

Apart from the above, additional recommendations are issued in relation to the economic and polical challenges and also address operational and crisis management activities.

Next steps

The Commissions proposal for the revision of the Network and Information Security Directive or NIS2 proposal, provides for EU countries to implement a national CVD policy. ENISA will be supporting the EU Member States with the implementation of this provision and will be developing a guideline to help EU Member States establish their national CVD policies.

In addition, ENISA will need to develop and maintain an EU Vulnerability database (EUVDB). The work will complement the already existing international vulnerability databases. ENISA will start discussing the implementation of the database with the European Commission and the EU Member States after the adoption of the NIS2 proposal.

Background material

The report builds upon previous work performed by ENISA in the field of vulnerabilities. ENISA issued a report on good practices on vulnerability disclosure in 2016, and the economic impact of vulnerabilites was explored in detail in 2018. In addition, the limitations and opportunities of the vulnerability ecosystem were analysed in the ENISA 2018/2019 State of Vulnerabilities report.

Further information

Vulnerability Disclosure in the EU An overview of National Vulnerability Disclosure Policies in the EU ENISA report

State of Vulnerabilities 2018/2019 - Analysis of Events in the life of Vulnerabilities

Economics of Vulnerability Disclosure

Good Practice Guide on Vulnerability Disclosure. From challenges to recommendations

Contact

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Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure policies in the EU - ENISA

Annual report on payments made under the Healthcare (EEA and Switzerland Arrangements) Act 2019 – GOV.UK

First annual report on payments made under the Healthcare (European Economic Area and Switzerland arrangements) Act 2019 for the period 31 December 2020 to 31 March 2021.

The Healthcare European Economic Area and Switzerland Arrangements Act 2019 (HEEASAA) provides the Secretary of State with a legal framework to implement comprehensive reciprocal healthcare agreements with countries in the EEA and with Switzerland following the UKs departure from the European Union.

Under Section 6 of the 2019 act, the Secretary of State has a duty to lay an annual report before Parliament providing details of payments made under the powers conferred by or under the act. The report must be laid before Parliament as soon as practicable after the end of each financial year.

This first annual report covers the period between the end of the EU exit transition period on 31 December 2020 and the end of the financial year on 31 March 2021. Future reports will cover payments made under the 2019 act for subsequent financial years.

For this first report, very limited expenditure took place under the 2019 act due to the lag in receiving claims from member states. All EEA expenditure for the financial year 2020 to 2021 including that incurred under EU law (Regulation 883/04) as well as payments under the 2019 act are covered in the departmental annual report and accounts, published on 31 January 2022.

Reciprocal healthcare agreements with other countries strengthen international healthcare cooperation. They support UK residents to access necessary and emergency healthcare when they travel abroad and can facilitate cooperation on planned treatment and other areas of healthcare policy. They support tourism and short-term business travel and can particularly benefit those with long-term health conditions. The most frequently used element of reciprocal healthcare for UK residents, and the most familiar, is the access to necessary healthcare in other countries.

Following the UKs departure from the European Union, the UK government reached an agreement with the EU to ensure that UK residents will continue to benefit from reciprocal healthcare arrangements when in the EU.

Under the powers in the 2019 act, the government implemented separation agreements with the EU, Switzerland, and the EEA EFTA states (Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), namely the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement [footnote 1], the UK-Switzerland Citizens Rights Agreement [footnote 2] and the UK-EEA EFTA Separation Agreement [footnote 3]. These agreements ensured there was no cliff-edge for citizens rights, including reciprocal healthcare rights, when the UK departed from the EU by protecting those with residence rights.

The government subsequently agreed further comprehensive arrangements with the EU and Switzerland, which have been implemented using HEEASAA powers. These provide reciprocal healthcare coverage to those travelling to the EU and Switzerland. These agreements (The Social Security Coordination Protocol to the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement [footnote 4] and the UK-Switzerland Convention on Social Security Coordination [footnote 5], respectively) mean continued healthcare support for UK residents when they travel or move to the EU or Switzerland.

Finally, the UK negotiated a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in 2020 with Ireland on reciprocal healthcare, which is also implemented under the powers under the 2019 act. This MOU was negotiated with partners in Ireland to ensure continuity of most elements of reciprocal healthcare in the event of no negotiated outcome with the European Union on a future relationship. It specifically recognises the unique relationship of the UK with Ireland and broader common travel area arrangements. Following the agreement of the EU arrangements, the UK and Ireland have agreed that the provisions in the trade and cooperation agreement will apply for reciprocal healthcare, but with some enhanced elements to support further cooperation.

The UK is currently negotiating a further agreement with the EEA EFTA states of Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Once negotiated, this agreement will also be implemented under the powers under the 2019 act. UK nationals can use their passports to access necessary healthcare in Norway in the meantime.

In summary, the UK has successfully negotiated and implemented 6 agreements under the powers conferred under HEEASAA with countries and blocs in Europe. In the future, it is expected that further agreements will be reached with countries in Europe and outside of Europe. The government has brought forward provisions in the Health and Care Bill to enable the government to implement comprehensive healthcare agreements with countries outside of the EEA and Switzerland.

Where the UK or an EU member state is responsible for the healthcare of an individual, they will be entitled to reciprocal healthcare cover.This includes certain categories of cross-border workers and state pensioners who retire to the EU.

In summary, the agreements in place during the report period cover:

the healthcare costs of UK-insured state pensioners and their dependants living in the EEA and Switzerland around 201,000 [footnote 6] in total. These are known as S1 arrangements

individuals exporting benefits to the EEA and Switzerland (and their dependants) whose healthcare is funded via the S1 form around 7,200 [footnote 7] in total

around 42,000 [footnote 8] workers from the UK who are on a temporary posting in the EU and access healthcare using their EHIC and GHIC [footnote 9]. There are also around 2,100 [footnote 10] S1 certificates issued to workers or their dependants to access healthcare in the EEA and Switzerland, although there may be overlap between these 2 groups

The cost of necessary healthcare (EHIC and GHIC) of UK-insureds of approximately 67 million visits to member states each year once travelling patterns return to their long-term trend [footnote 11]. UK nationals can also use their passports to access necessary healthcare in Norway

We also fund around 1,300 to 1,500 UK residents per year to travel overseas to receive planned treatment in member states (such as, for procedures unavailable in the UK within a medically justifiable timescale or returning home to give birth) [footnote 12]. These are known as S2 provisions

Prior to EU exit, the UK was obliged to reimburse healthcare costs for which we were liable under Regulation (EC) No 883/2004 and in accordance with procedures set out in Regulation (EC) No 987/2009. Treatment in the EEA and Switzerland incurred since 31 December 2020, for which the UK is liable, is now mainly reimbursable under the 2019 act.

For the reporting period of this report, the UK has been responsible for funding those covered by the separation agreements and the social security coordination protocol to the UK-EU trade and cooperation agreement [footnote 13] (including the MOU with Ireland). The UK-Switzerland social security convention came into force in November 2021 and therefore no payments have been made under this agreement during this reporting period.

Different reimbursement mechanisms are in place for the different reciprocal healthcare provisions and vary by member states. Table 1 below outlines the specific detail for each member state.

For necessary healthcare, our reciprocal healthcare arrangements enable the UK to charge EEA and Swiss states based on the actual costs for the use of NHS services or to agree an alternative form of charging, such as cost-waiver agreements (where each country underwrites the healthcare costs of the services used by people of the other state) or formula agreements (where a model is agreed between the UK and a member state based on factors such as travel numbers).

The UK has formula agreements in place to estimate the value of NHS services used in the UK by temporary visitors from Spain, France, Portugal, Belgium, Sweden and Ireland, and the UK has opted to enter into cost waiver agreements with some of the smaller member states, such as Norway and Malta, where the total flow of people between the UK and these states is broadly similar in both directions.

The UK pays the actual costs for all those receiving planned treatment (S2).

Pensioner healthcare (S1) is charged at an average cost in Cyprus, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Sweden, and actual cost (or through the waiver) for all other member states and Switzerland. Workers eligible for an S1 are all charged at actual cost.

Table 1: EEA Switzerland reciprocal healthcare payment arrangements

In terms of the payments, all EEA healthcare payments (including those under the 2019 act) are made in arrears, usually between 1 to 3 years after the event.

If, for example, a UK national were to injure themselves on a holiday in Germany, they would present their GHIC at the German hospital and receive the necessary treatment. The hospital would then raise an invoice for the treatment with their liaison body. In the case of the UK, this liaison body is the NHS Business Services Authority (NHS BSA). The German liaison body would then submit a claim for the cost of that treatment to the UK based on receipts of the invoice from the hospital. Once the UK is satisfied that the claim is accurate and valid, the UK would release the payment to Germany. This process takes at least one year.

Routine payments for treatments covered under the 2019 act are therefore unlikely to begin until early 2022, one year after the agreement came into force.

For the reasons outlined above, the only payments made under the HEEASAA legislation for the period between 11pm on 31 December 2020 and 31 March 2021 were for discretionary planned treatment care. These payments are made outside of the regular payments process and are therefore paid in a shorter time frame. Expenditure is outlined in Table 2 below.

Payments for discretionary planned treatment are made to support the healthcare needs of British residents when they are abroad in circumstances which fall outside of a reciprocal healthcare agreement. They are most likely to be used when the refusal to fund healthcare treatment would result in unjustifiably harsh consequences for the individual.

Table 2: Payments made by the UK government under HEEASAA for financial year

Alongside payments under HEEASAA, EEA payments have also been made for reciprocal healthcare claims from member states, which took place whilst the UK was still a member of the EU, during the 2020 to 2021 financial year. These payments do not fall under the 2019 act and are outlined in the DHSC annual report and accounts: 2020 to 2021

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Annual report on payments made under the Healthcare (EEA and Switzerland Arrangements) Act 2019 - GOV.UK

The Security Community dilemma of the European Union in Eastern Europe – Modern Diplomacy

Friction is the difference between war on paper and war as it actually is.-Karl von Clausewitz, On War

The Friction of Nuclear Crisis

Amid multiplying perils of Russias aggression[1] against Ukraine, one obligation remains primary for all parties. This is the core requirement to discourage elements of nuclear friction[2] during this crisis.[3] More specifically, though a US-Russia nuclear clash could result from deliberate national decisions by either party, such an outcome could also be unintentional.

Certain corollary obligations for the United States are worth noting. It is now patently time-urgent for capable American strategic thinkers to consider variously tangible and inter-penetrating prospects of an inadvertent nuclear war. This current subject of existential risk will display significant nuances.

Such derivative or reflective particulars will warrant immediate and informed study.

Nuances of an Inadvertent Nuclear War

Prima facie, these are not matters for everyday politicos to solve. Conspicuous definitional clarifications are in order. To begin, although an accidental nuclear war would always be inadvertent, not every inadvertent nuclear war would be the result of accident.

Pertinent examples may be identified. Other conceivable forms of unintentional nuclear conflict could represent the sudden or incremental outcome of human misjudgment and/or technical miscalculation. This is the case whether a bellum atomicum was spawned by singular nation-state error or by both sides to an ongoing nuclear crisis escalation.

Meaningful or even decisive here could be synergies. In brief, these factors would represent force-multiplying intersections that may arise between certain decision-maker misjudgments and/or miscalculations. Indeed, amid growing nuclear perils of the Ukraine crisis, synergies whether foreseen or unforeseen could prove utterly determinative.

There is more. In all such densely complicated matters, conceptual understanding must be prior or antecedent to any actual policy. By definition, in specifically synergistic intersections, the cumulative whole of any considered combination would be greater than the sum of its component parts. Here, inter alia, the quantifiable outcome of two discrete national decisions would likely prove more consequential than any discernible result suggested by arithmetic summation.

This presumptively heightened importance could be tangible, intangible or somewhere in-between.

What else? Ultimately, in the matter of Russias still-escalating aggressions against Ukraine,[4] synergistic outcomes must represent a bewildering complex of intellectual/analytic issues. These important outcomes would not represent merely mundane or trivial political matters. To the point, they would not represent any matters amenable to forms of political resolution.

Initially, at least, the manifest risks of any deliberate nuclear war and inadvertent nuclear war should be assessed independently.[5] Accordingly, among other things, US President Joe Biden should prepare to deal systematically and dispassionately with predictable manifestations of cyber-attack and cyber-war originating within the present Ukraine crisis. To whatever extent possible, these high-technology threats ought to be considered in careful conjunction with simultaneously expanding activities of digital mercenaries.

These will be largely new frontiers.

Any residual US preparations for a nuclear war by intention (deliberate nuclear war) could have marked effects on the likelihood of inadvertent nuclear war. These preparations could be entirely rational. To wit, they would be designed to ensure US escalation dominance whenever intra-crisis hegemony was seemingly required.

Unequivocally, for the United States, risks of deliberate and inadvertent nuclear war must remain delicately intertwined. To best minimize these grave risks should always be the responsibility of genuine strategists and scholars, not ill-prepared or delusional politicos[6] who would see their personal success in attitude, not preparation.[7]

There is more. In logic and science, precise language always matters. In the uniquely delicate matters of war and peace, dangerous false warnings could be generated by different types of technical malfunction and/or by third-party hacking interference. Nonetheless, these concocted signals should not be included under the pertinent causes of an inadvertent nuclear war. For analytic purposes, which are ultimately crucial to any purposeful security policy, false warnings should be taken as cautionary narratives of an accidental nuclear war.

These are meaningful distinctions. Recognizing the territorial and geopolitical loci of accelerating nuclear threats to the United States, Ukraine-related existential issues should focus in part on Russian, Chinese, and even North Korean interdependencies. Concessions allegedly offered to US President Biden by Russian President Putin might not be plausibly reassuring vis--vis the variably unpredictable perils originating from China. Reciprocally, Putin could have determinable reason to be concerned about any US concessions offered on behalf of particular NATO member states.

In strategic terms, there is a great deal to assess. Metaphorically, for the United States, there are additional (and more-or-less interdependent) flies in the ointment. For both President Biden and President Putin, such irritants will substantially complicate some critical elements of Americas national security decision-making process. Taken together, these irritants should immediately bring to mind Carl von Clausewitzs classical war-planning hypotheses concerning friction.[8]

Nuclear War by Miscalculation, Misinterpretation and Escalation Dominance

Purposeful defense policies will always require variously refined methods. For the United States, conceptual clarity should become a much more plainly apparent sine qua non for resolving Ukraine-based risks. Most worrisome among all potentially credible causes of an inadvertent nuclear war would be errors in calculation committed by one or both sides. Clarifying examples here could involve assorted misjudgments of adversarial intent or capacity that emerge in some calculable tandem or conformance with any ongoing crisis escalation.

Friction will matter. Such consequential misjudgments could stem from an amplified intra-crisis desire by one or several contending parties to achieve escalation dominance.[9] Among other stratagems, relevant desire could sometime involve a seeming willingness to tolerate a limited nuclear war.[10] In such foreseeable conditions, all rational contestants would strive for intra-crisis supremacy, but without risking unacceptable odds[11] of suffering total or near-total destruction.

In these inherently ambiguous circumstances, the operative definition of unacceptable would necessarily be subjective.

On strategic matters, intersections and complexities can be expansive and excruciatingly difficult to fathom. As a correlative matter, the variously assorted causes of an inadvertent nuclear war now warrant closer expert study. These additional causes include flawed interpretations of computer-generated nuclear attack warnings; unequal willingness among calculating adversaries to risk catastrophic war; overconfidence in deterrence and/or defense capabilities on one side or the other (or both); adversarial regime changes; outright revolution or coup dtat among variously contending adversaries; and poorly-conceived pre-delegations of nuclear launch authority among more-or-less wary foes.[12]

Rationality and Irrationality

On such potentially existential crisis matters as present-day Ukraine, US strategic thinking should never be narrowly cookbook or formula-based. One potential source of inadvertent nuclear war involving the United States could be as a backfire effect from untested strategies of pretended irrationality. In principle, a rational Russian enemy that managed to convince Washington of its decisional irrationality could sometime spark an American military preemption. In an utterly worst case scenario, an adversarial leadership in Moscow that had begun to take seriously certain hints of decisional irrationality in Washington could be frightened into striking first. Because such a scenario would be without precedent or sui generis, there could be no purpose to calling it probable or improbable.

By definition, neither designation could possibly make any sense.

Metaphor may also be instructive. Joe Biden must remain wary of nightmare. According to the etymologists, the root here is niht mare or niht maere, the demon of the night. Dr. Johnsons dictionary says this corresponds to Nordic mythology, which regarded nightmares as the product of demons. This would make it a play on, or a translation of, the Greek ephialtes or the Latin incubus. In all such interpretations of nightmare, the inherently non-rational idea of some demonic origin is central.

For the United States, the Ukraine-based demons of nuclear strategy and nuclear war must take a markedly different form. In essence, the mien of these demons is distracted and political. If these demons are now thought to be sinister, it is not because Vladimir Putin actively craves war with the United States, but because he may be seeking personal and national safety amid a self-propelled global chaos.[13]

Though grotesque, primal and barbarous, that Russian dictators search could still be technically rational.

There is more. While the state of nations has always been in the state of nature[14] at least since the seventeenth century and the historic Peace of Westphalia (1648) current conditions of nuclear capacity and worldwide anarchy portend an expanding cauldron of unprecedented aggressions. The correct explanation for any such dire portents lies in the indispensability of rational decision-making to viable nuclear deterrence[15] and in the coexistent fact that rational decision-making could become subject to suddenly corrosive deteriorations.

Synergy, First-Use and Worldwide Human Rights

Presently, America faces national security risks that remain both immediate and existential. Such formidable risks can be fully understood only in light of the believable or at least conceivable intersections arising between them. On occasion, some of these reinforcing intersections could also prove synergistic. Though contradicting what we first learned in primary school arithmetic, the whole of strategic intersectional risk effects could sometime be greater than the discernible sum of its component parts.[16]

There is more. On matters of US nuclear crisis decision-making, there will be certain applicable matters of jurisprudence or law. Under relevant US Constitutional law[17] (Article l), holding Congressional war-declaring expectations aside, any presidential order to use nuclear weapons, whether issued by an apparently irrational president or by an otherwise incapacitated one, would warrant automatic obedience. To conclude otherwise in such incomparably dire circumstances would be law-violating.

Any chain-of-command disobedience in such time-urgent circumstances would be impermissible on its face. Further, an American president could order the first use of American nuclear weapons even if this country were not under any actual nuclear attack. In this connection, further strategic and legal distinctions will need to be made between a nuclear first use and a nuclear first strike. While there does exist an elementary but still-substantive difference between these two nuclear options, it is a distinction that former President Donald Trump absolutely failed to understand. This nation managed to survive that experience under a president starkly unfamiliar with nuclear strategy, but such previous episodes of good luck need never be repeatable.

In the United States, substantial decisional risks still obtain.[18] Where should President Joe Biden go from here in the imperative management of such urgent security issues? Inter alia, a coherent and comprehensive answer will need to be prepared in response to the following basic question: If faced with a presidential order to use nuclear weapons, and if not offered sufficiently appropriate corroborative evidence of any actually impending existential threat, would the National Command Authority be: (1) willing to disobey, and (2) capable of enforcing such variable expressions of official disobedience?

In all such unprecedented crisis-decision circumstances, authoritative decisions could have to be made in compressively time-urgent segments of minutes, not hours or days. Here, as far as any useful policy guidance from the past might be concerned, there could be no scientifically valid way to assess the true probabilities of possible outcomes. This is because all scientific judgments of probability whatever the salient issue or subject must always be based upon the discernible frequency of pertinent past events.

Any other bases could provide American nuclear strategists with only an intelligent guess.

In prospectively relevant matters of nuclear war, there could be nopertinent past events. Though this represents a fortunate absence, it would still stand in the way of rendering fully reliable decision-making predictions. Prima facie, whatever the scientific obstacles,[19] the optimal time to prepare for any such incomparably vital US national security difficulties is now.

In the currently urgent security matter of Ukraine, President Biden, faced with dramatic uncertainties about Vladimir Putin s willingness to push the nuclear envelope, could sometime find himself confronted with a bewilderingly stark choice. This choice would be deciding between outright capitulation to Russian war crimes[20]/crimes against humanity[21] and risking a nuclear war. In this regard, Biden would need to continuously bear in mind Americas law-based responsibility to uphold basic justice[22] in other countries, especially where human rights were under conspicuous and egregious assault by another super-power.[23]

Within the broad parameters of Realpolitik[24] or geopolitics, the field of nuclear policy decision-making remains largely without any tangible precedent. While the search for escalation dominance may be common to all imaginable sorts of military deal-making, the plausible costs of nuclear bargaining losses could prove incomparable. No other military losses could reasonably be compared to ones in a nuclear war, whether intentional, inadvertent or accidental.

There is more. In such a war, whether occasioned by miscalculation, human error or hacking-type interference, there could be no identifiable winner. Still, a number of significant and generic risks continue to obtain. Looking ahead, the very best way for America to forestall being placed in extremis atomicum is for President Joe Biden to stay focused on intellectual[25] and analytic explanatory factors. In all such complex policy matters, narrowly political judgments should always be deemed unworthy and extraneous.

Sometimes the poet may see more clearly than the policy-maker.[26] America should never allow itself to be caught unaware.[27] In playing such high-stakes games as nuclear strategy and escalation dominance, there would be no comforting do overs. At any late stage of bargaining and brinksmanship, even a single and seemingly minor loss could prove grievously lethal and irreversible.

Most important of all will be the calculated prevention of an inadvertent nuclear war. Even in the absence of a nuclear adversary that would wittingly brandish apocalyptic threats, America is imperiled by such a nuclear adversary through the multiple and synergistic dangers of national policy inadvertence. Even in a strategic world wherein Russian and American leaders remain reliably rational, these dangers must remain prospectively existential. They can, however, be limited and managed if they are first suitably delineated, clarified and investigated.

In the final analysis, the security task in Ukraine must be conceptualized as a fundamentally intellectual one, a titanic struggle to narrow the gap between war on paper and war as it actually is.[28] Because the only reasonable use for nuclear weapons in this escalating struggle will be deterrence ex ante, not victory ex post, the American president and his senior advisors must somehow meet the perplexing expectations of escalation dominance without simultaneously triggering a nuclear exchange. In large measure, this task will require the decision-making principals to manage an existential crisis without any historical precedent, and to somehow do so with the more-or-less active cooperation of Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Going forward on Ukraine, American strategic failure could not possibly represent an acceptable option. Still, success in any of its conceivable forms will remain sorely problematic. Joe Bidens de facto recognition of Clausewitzian friction (i.e., his avoiding a no-fly-zone over Ukraine) is both understandable and indispensable. To be sure, we may all wish it were different for plainly credible humanitarian reasons, but, in the end, meeting the obligations of nuclear war avoidance should prove overriding.

Always.

[1] On the crime of aggression under international law, see: RESOLUTION ON THE DEFINITION OF AGGRESSION, Dec. 14, 1974, U.N.G.A. Res. 3314 (XXIX), 29 U.N. GAOR, Supp. (No. 31) 142, U.N. Doc. A/9631, 1975, reprinted in 13 I.L.M. 710, 1974; and CHARTER OF THE UNITED NATIONS, Art. 51. Done at San Francisco, June 26, 1945. Entered into force for the United States, Oct. 24, 1945, 59 Stat. 1031, T.S. No. 993, Bevans 1153, 1976, Y.B.U.N. 1043.

[2] In effect, though never made explicit by the White House, it is to acknowledge this element of friction that President Biden has steered away from establishing a no-fly-zone over Ukraine.

[3] As this crisis in Ukraine is essentially sui generis there have been no plausibly equivalent nuclear threat events to draw upon nothing scientific can yet be said about nuclear war probabilities. Always, in both logic and mathematics, scientifically-valid probabilities must be based upon the determinable frequency of pertinent past events.

[4] These aggressions include a variety of related crimes under international law, all of them egregious in the Nuremberg sense. The principles of international law recognized by the Charter of the Nuremberg Tribunal and the judgment of the Tribunal were affirmed by the U.N. General Assembly as AFFIRMATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW RECOGNIZED BY THE CHARTER OF THE NUREMBERG TRIBUNAL. Adopted by the U.N. General Assembly, Dec. 11, 1946. U.N.G.A. Res. 95 (I), U.N. Doc. A/236 (1946), at 1144. This AFFIRMATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW RECOGNIZED BY THE CHARTER OF THE NUREMBERG TRIBUNAL (1946) was followed by General Assembly Resolution 177 (II), adopted November 21, 1947, directing the U.N. International Law Commission to (a) Formulate the principles of international law recognized in the Charter of the Nuremberg Tribunal and in the judgment of the Tribunal, and (b) Prepare a draft code of offenses against the peace and security of mankind. (See U.N. Doc. A/519, p. 112). The principles formulated are known as the PRINCIPLES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW RECOGNIZED IN THE CHARTER AND JUDGMENT OF THE NUREMBERG TRIBUNAL. Report of the International Law Commission, 2nd session, 1950, U.N. G.A.O.R. 5th session, Supp. No. 12, A/1316, p. 11.

[5] The respective physical harms would be the same. For earlier looks at the expected consequences of nuclear war effects by this author, see: Louis Ren Beres, Apocalypse: Nuclear Catastrophe in World Politics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980); Louis Ren Beres, Mimicking Sisyphus: Americas Countervailing Nuclear Strategy (Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books, 1983); Louis Ren Beres, Reason and Realpolitik: U.S. Foreign Policy and World Order (Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books, 1984); and Louis Ren Beres, Security or Armageddon: Israels Nuclear Strategy (Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books, 1986).

[6] In his relatively ignored book on Woodrow Wilson, Sigmund Freud observes: Fools, visionaries, sufferers from delusions, neurotics and lunatics have played great roles at all times in the history of mankind. Usually, they have wreaked havoc.

[7] This was the view of former US President Donald J. Trump, who claimed to have halted North Koreas nuclearization by mutually falling in love with Kim Jung On. This bizarre Trump statement should remind readers of a timeless comment by poet Berthold Brecht (then thinking of the murderous German Chancellor Hitler): The man who laughs has simply not yet heard the terrible news.

[8] In essence, the Clausewitzian concept of friction refers to variously unpredictable effects of inevitable strategic uncertainties; e.g., on under-estimations or over-estimations of relative power position and the unalterably vast differences between abstract theories of war and war as it actually is. See: Carl von Clausewitz, Uber das Leben und den Charakter von Scharnhorst, Historisch-politische Zeitschrift, 1 (1832); cited in Barry D. Watts, Clausewitzian Friction and Future War, McNair Paper No. 52, October, 1996, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University Washington, D.C. p. 9.

[9] See, by this writer, Louis Ren Beres (Pentagon): https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/united-states-nuclear-strategy-deterrence-escalation-and-war

[10] US strategic thinkers must soon inquire whether accepting a visible posture of limited nuclear war would merely exacerbate enemy nuclear intentions, or whether it would actually enhance this countrys overall nuclear deterrence. Such questions have been raised by this author for many years, but usually in explicit reference to more broadly theoretical or generic nuclear threats. See, for example, Louis Ren Beres, The Management of World Power: A Theoretical Analysis (1972); Louis Ren Beres, Terrorism and Global Security: The Nuclear Threat (1979; second edition, 1987); Louis Ren Beres, Apocalypse: Nuclear Catastrophe in World Politics (1980); Louis Ren Beres, Mimicking Sisyphus: Americas Countervailing Nuclear Strategy (1983); Louis Ren Beres, Reason and Realpolitik: US Foreign Policy and World Order (1984); Louis Ren Beres, Security or Armageddon: Israels Nuclear Strategy (1986); and Louis Ren Beres, Surviving Amid Chaos: Israels Nuclear Strategy (2016).

[11]The measurable criteria of severe risk here would remain subjective. This is because the issues under examination would of necessity be unique or sui generis.

[12] The problem of such pre-delegations was examined by this author much earlier in his Apocalypse: Nuclear Catastrophe in World Politics (The University of Chicago Press, 1980) and in articles co-authored with General John T. Chain, a former Commander-in-Chief, US Strategic Air Command: See Professor Beres and General Chain: https://besacenter.org/living-iran-israels-strategic-imperative-2/ See also Louis Ren Beres and General John T. Chain, Could Israel Safely deter a Nuclear Iran? The Atlantic, August 2012; and Professor Louis Ren Beres and General John T. Chain, Israel; and Iran at the Eleventh Hour, Oxford University Press (OUP Blog), February 23, 2012. Though dealing with Israeli rather than American nuclear deterrence, these articles are fundamentally conceptual and clarify variously common analytic policy elements.

[13] Whether it is described in the Old Testament or any other major sources of ancient Western thought, chaos can be viewed as something positive, even a source of human betterment. Here, chaos is taken as that which prepares the world for all things, both sacred and profane. As its conspicuous etymology reveals, chaos further represents the yawning gulf or gap wherein nothing is as yet, but where all civilizational opportunity must inevitably originate. Appropriately, the classical German poet Friedrich Hlderlin observed: There is a desert sacred and chaotic which stands at the roots of the things and which prepares all things. Even in the pagan ancient world, the Greeks thought of such a desert as logos, which should indicate to us today that it was never presumed to be starkly random or without evident merit.

[14] Says Thomas Hobbes: But though there had never been any time wherein particular men were in a condition of war one against another, yet in all times, Kings and Persons of Sovereign Authority, because of their Independency, are in continual jealousies, and in the state and posture of Gladiators, having their weapons pointing and their eyes fixed on one another(Leviathan).

[15] In studies of world politics, rationality and irrationality have now taken on very specific meanings. More precisely, an actor (state or sub-state) is presumed determinedly rational to the extent that its leadership always values national survival more highly than any other conceivable preference or combination of conceivable preferences. Conversely, an irrational actor might not always display such a determinable preference ordering.

[16] See earlier, by this author, Louis Ren Beres, at Harvard National Security Journal (Harvard Law School): https://harvardnsj.org/2015/06/core-synergies-in-israels-strategic-planning-when-the-adversarial-whole-is-greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts/

[17] More generally, international law is a part of US domestic law. In the precise words used by the U.S. Supreme Court in The Paquete Habana, International law is part of our law, and must be ascertained by the courts of justice of appropriate jurisdiction, as often as questions of right depending upon it are duly presented for their determination. For this purpose, where there is no treaty, and no controlling executive or legislative act or judicial decision, resort must be had to the customs and usages of civilized nations. See The Paquete Habana, 175 U.S. 677, 678-79 (1900). See also: The Lola, 175 U.S. 677 (1900); Tel-Oren v. Libyan Arab Republic, 726 F. 2d 774, 781, 788 (D.C. Cir. 1984) (per curiam) (Edwards, J. concurring) (dismissing the action, but making several references to domestic jurisdiction over extraterritorial offenses), cert. denied, 470 U.S. 1003 (1985) (concept of extraordinary judicial jurisdiction over acts in violation of significant international standardsembodied in the principle of `universal violations of international law.').

[18] See by this author, Louis Ren Beres, at The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: https://thebulletin.org/biography/louis-rene-beres/; and Louis Ren Beres, at US Army War College, The War Room: https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/nuclear-decision-making/

[19] Observes Jose Ortega y Gassett about science (Man and Crisis, 1958): Science, by which I mean the entire body of knowledge about things, whether corporeal or spiritual, is as much a work of imagination as it is of observationThe latter is not possible without the former.

[20] The law of war, the rules of jus in bello, comprise: (1) laws on weapons; (2) laws on warfare; and (3) humanitarian rules. Codified primarily at The Hague and Geneva Conventions, these rules attempt to bring discrimination, proportionality and military necessity into all belligerent calculations. Evidence for the rule of proportionality can also be found in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (1966) at Art. 4. Similarly, the American Convention on Human Rights allows at Art. 27(1) such derogations in time of war, public danger or other emergency which threaten the independence or security of a party on condition of proportionality. In essence, the military principle of proportionality requires that the amount of destruction permitted must be proportionate to the importance of the objective. In contrast, the political principle of proportionality states a war cannot be just unless the evil that can reasonably be expected to ensure from the war is less than the evil that can reasonably be expected to ensue if the war is not fought. See Douglas P. Lackey, THE ETHICS OF WAR AND PEACE, 40 (1989). modified only by a subsequent norm of general international law having the same character. See: Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, Done at Vienna, May 23, 1969. Entered into force, Jan. 27, 1980. U.N. Doc. A/CONF. 39/27 at 289 (1969), 1155 U.N.T.S. 331, reprinted in 8 I.L.M. 679 (1969).

[21]Under authoritative international law, crimes against humanity are defined as murder, extermination, enslavement, deportation, and other inhumane acts committed against any civilian population before or during a war; or persecutions on political, racial or religious grounds in execution of or in connection with any crime within the jurisdiction of the Tribunal, whether or not in violation of the domestic law of the country where perpetrated. See Charter of the International Military Tribunal, Aug. 8, 1945, Art. 6(c), 59 Stat. 1544, 1547, 82 U.N.T.S. 279, 288

[22] Says Plato: Justice is a contract neither to do nor to suffer wrong. (Republic)

[23] Neither international law nor US law specifically advises any particular penalties or sanctions for states that choose not to prevent or punish egregious crimes committed by others. Nonetheless, all states, most notably the major powers belonging to the UN Security Council, are bound, among other things, by the peremptory obligation (defined at Article 26 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties) known as pacta sunt servanda, to act in continuous good faith. In turn, this pacta sunt servanda obligation is itself derived from an even more basic norm of world law. Commonly known as mutual assistance, this civilizing norm was most famously identified within the classical interstices of international jurisprudence, most notably by the eighteenth-century legal scholar, Emmerich de Vattel in The Law of Nations (1758).

[24] The classic statement of Realpolitik or power politics in western philosophy is the comment of Thrasymachus in Platos Republic: Justice is nothing else than the interest of the stronger. (See Plato, The Republic, 29, Benjamin Jowett, tr., World Publishing Company, 1946.) See also: Ciceros oft-quoted query: For what can be done against force without force? Marcus Tullus Cicero, Ciceros Letters to his Friends, 78 (D.R. Shackleton Baily tr., Scholars Press, 1988).

[25] The Founding Fathers of the United States, including early presidents, were intellectuals. More precisely, as explained by American historian Richard Hofstadter: The Founding Fathers were sages, scientists, men of broad cultivation, many of them apt in classical learning, who used their wide reading in history, politics and law to solve the exigent problems of their time. See Hofstadters classic, Anti-Intellectualism in American Life (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1964), p. 145.

[26] Before Beat poets Lawrence Ferlinghetti, Allen Ginsberg and Jack Kerouac, there was the avant-garde of Zrich Dada, most notably Hugo Ball and Tristan Tzara. Like Beat, Dada urged an expanding relationship between life and art, one where art can not only enrich life, but help to better understand and elucidate it.

[27] Underlying the technical issues here are individual citizen identifications with sentiments of belligerent nationalism, identifications that were strongly encouraged by former US President Donald J. Trump. In the nineteenth century, in his posthumously published Lecture on Politics (1896), German historian Heinrich von Treitschke observed: Individual man sees in his own country the realization of his earthly immortality. Earlier, German philosopher Georg Friedrich Hegel opined, in his Philosophy of Right (1820), that the state represents the march of God in the world. The deification of Realpolitik, a transformation from mere principle of action to a sacred end in itself, drew its originating strength from the doctrine of sovereignty advanced in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Initially conceived as a principle of internal order, this doctrine underwent a specific metamorphosis, whence it became the formal or justifying rationale for international anarchy that is, for the global state of nature. First established by Jean Bodin as a juristic concept in De Republica (1576), sovereignty came to be regarded as a power absolute and above the law. Understood in terms of modern international relations, this doctrine encouraged the notion that states lie above and beyond any form of legal regulation in their interactions with each other.

[28] The ancient Greeks and Macedonians always thought of war as a struggle of mind over mind, not just mind over matter. See F. E. Adcock, The Greek and Macedonian Art of War (1957).

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The Security Community dilemma of the European Union in Eastern Europe - Modern Diplomacy

The European Union Delivers Great News to Crypto Fans and Investors – TheStreet

The cryptocurrency community hailed a decision by a European Union committee rejecting a proposal that could have led to a ban on energy-intensive form of mining.

The European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee passed the proposed Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework, the EUs legislation for governing digital assets.

The committee turned down a last-minute addition to the bill that sought to limit the use of cryptocurrencies that use the proof-of-work mining process, which has beenhave been criticized by environmentalists for its energy consumption.

The measure demanded "minimum environmental sustainability standards" for crypto assets traded in the bloc.

The rule change would have meant proof-of-work crypto assets, such as bitcoin and ethereum, would likely be unable to demonstrate their alignment, given the ever-increasing computing power required to validate each transaction on the blockchain.

Formal negotiations on the draft framework will now proceed between the European commission, council and parliament.

Bitcoin was flat at $38, 769 at last check, according to CoinGecko.

"Todays MiCA vote is more than a win for crypto," Diogo Monica, co-founder and president ofAnchorage Digital,a digital asset platform, tweeted. "Its a win for the European economy and for innovation."

Monica added that "its a relief that a single misguided (but well-intentioned) provision wont derail the continents immense progress and potential. Sanityand logicprevailed."

A 2021 report from Bank of America noted that the CO2 emissions required to "mine" each transaction are at similar levels to that of Greece, a top fifty global economy, at around 60 tons, adding that an inflow of $1 billion in new bitcoin investment is the equivalent of 1.2 million internal combustion engine cars.

"Major Update on #MICA," Blockchain for Europe tweeted. "The #PoW ban has been rejected in the@Europarl_EN!!! Thank you on behalf of the industry!"

"Thats like thanking them for air," one person responded."

Patrick Hansen, head of strategy and business development with Unstoppable Finance, said that he was "more than relieved that the ECON committee voted against the ban of proof-of-work-based assets for EU companies in the end."

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"That amendment would have had dramatic consequences on the European crypto market," he said, "since it would have pushed EU consumers towards foreign, unregulated exchanges and European companies, capital, and talent out of the EU. All without a noticeable benefit to the stated goal of sustainability."

Hansen noted thateven if, in all likelihood, that amendment would not have found its way into the final agreement, "the mere symbol of the EU Parliament calling for a POW-ban would have already had a very detrimental effect on the market."

Hansen added that he glad that the majority voted in favor of the alternative amendment of rapporteur Stefan Berger, a member of the European Parliament.

"Including mining into the EU sustainability taxonomy is the better solution for addressing sustainability concerns and will hopefully contribute to more and more mining activities being carried out through a renewable-only energy mix," Hansen said.

Berger tweeted that the EU Parliament "has paved the way for innovation-friendly crypto regulation that can set standards worldwide."

"The process is not over yet," he said in German. "Steps lie ahead of us."

Alex Lemberg, CEO of Nimbus Platformsaid that "Proof of Work does have a major drain on energy, there can be no argument there."

"I look at this effort in a positive light and will leave final commentary for when the language is clearer," he said. "The alternative which has been implemented in certain regions simply called for banning of mining and that too proved to be fruitless as bans are almost always removed without any sustainable measures being implemented."

Lemberg added that "governing bodies on a global scale are beginning to understand that the crypto markets arent going away."

"The adoption of Bitcoin is at a level where having a viable replacement is very unlikely in the coming few years," he said. "Therefore an amicable and structured approach in dealing with Proof of Work has to be reached. I do believe, however, that Proof of Stake or similar will eventually become the method used across the board."

Austin Reid, chief of staff of FalconX, said "we're glad to see the European Union take steps to foster digital asset innovation."

"There are important conversations to be had on lowering the energy consumption from Proof of Work mining, but outright bans are counterproductive due to the risk they pose in pushing mining activities to regions with less rules and dirtier energy sources," he said.

Citing the White House's recent executive order, Reid added, "these decisions highlight widespread interest in digital assets, and the increasing competition among regions to maintain competitiveness on a global scale.

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The European Union Delivers Great News to Crypto Fans and Investors - TheStreet

How to understand the Ukrainian refugee crisis, in charts and a map – Vox.com

More than 3 million people have fled Ukraine in the weeks since the start of Russias invasion. Europe hasnt seen an exodus of this scale and speed since World War II. Equally unprecedented is the welcoming attitude that countries neighboring Ukraine have had toward these refugees.

Race, culture, and religion certainly play a role in the warm welcome fleeing Ukrainians have received. But recent history is another factor. Though Ukraine isnt part of the European Union, the ease with which Ukrainians have been able to work and travel to EU countries have made them fixtures in the bloc, and that perhaps even more than geography has contributed to a sense that they are Europeans currently in need of aid from other Europeans.

In the weeks since the start of the invasion, all of Ukraines borders except those with Russia and Belarus have remained open. Most refugees used one of the 31 border checkpoints in western Ukraine and entered Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova. Poland took the majority, close to 2 million as of March 18.

The governments of these nations and non-governmental groups quickly worked out emergency plans to help those fleeing the Russian invasion. The EU announced on March 4 that Ukrainian citizens (who, pre-war, didnt need a visa to stay up to 90 days in the EU territory) would be entitled to the newly enacted temporary protection directive permitting them to live, work, and study in EU member states for up to three years.

The exact implementation may differ from country to country, and some plans may still shift. For the five neighboring countries that opened borders to let Ukrainians in, all except Moldova are EU members.

Non-Ukrainians, however, didnt get the same rights or legal protection. In the first few days of Russias invasion, there were incidents in which Ukrainian citizens were allowed to cross the border while non-Ukrainians faced obstacles to doing so. Now, at least on paper, people can cross the border regardless of nationality. Poland issues a 15-day temporary permit, Romania a 90-day transit visa, and Hungary a 30-day residence permit to non-Ukrainians. Officials expect them to go back to their home countries before those permits expire, or apply for asylum if they wish to stay longer.

The disparity between how Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian refugees are being treated is stark. It brings to the fore longstanding debates about what makes someone European, and who is worthy of Europes protection. Its also key to understanding why Ukrainians have been met with open arms by the rest of Europe.

European countries havent seen such a large number of displaced people in this short period of time in recent history. It took three weeks for 3 million to leave Ukraine. While at least a couple hundred thousand Ukrainians have returned home, thats still an overwhelmingly fast flow of people. When 3 million Syrians fled their country due to the war, it took two years to reach that milestone, and an even longer time for Syrian refugees to reach Europe.

To put the size of the population fleeing Ukraine into perspective, nearly 6 million people applied for asylum in European Union countries from 2013 to 2021. About 2.5 million sought asylum during 2015 and 2016.

Syrian refugees saw a very different reception than the Ukrainians currently fleeing Russias assault have one thats more reminiscent of the welcome non-Ukrainians have received, and consistent with the experiences other refugees of color have faced when trying to reach Europe. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbn called arriving migrants fleeing the Syrian war a Muslim invasion in 2015 and built border walls to fence them off. Last October, Poland entered a state of emergency when thousands of refugees from Afghanistan and Iraq attempted to cross the border from Belarus into the European Union.

Polls across the EU reflect a deep wariness about certain immigrants. Generally, European countries are less welcoming to immigrants of races and ethnicities that differ from their predominantly white populations. And people in eastern European countries, including Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland, are less likely to think immigrants should be allowed in than their western counterparts, according to the latest European Social Survey, conducted across the bloc in 2018.

A push to repatriate refugees has led to efforts like Denmark working to send its Syrian refugees from Damascus back home. Across Europe, far-right parties have expanded their power, both in individual nations and the EU parliament, partially on an anti-immigration platform.

The different treatment toward Ukrainian refugees is rooted in a sense that, although Ukraine isnt in the EU, its citizens are European. People from European countries see themselves in the Ukrainian refugees fleeing the war. That has been clear from their public statements, including those tinged with racist and xenophobic ideas about what it means to be European.

These people are Europeans, Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said. These people are intelligent. They are educated people. ... This is not the refugee wave we have been used to, people we were not sure about their identity, people with unclear pasts, who could have been even terrorists.

While refugees from Middle Eastern, African, or Asian countries are seen as others, the geographic proximity, similar skin colors and religions, as well as the social-economic ties to the EU states all contribute to the identification of Ukrainians as us Europeans.

An increasingly unified European identity has formed among the eastern European countries that joined the EU in the 2000s. Most citizens of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania see themselves as citizens of the European Union.

While Ukrainians arent EU citizens, they have enjoyed visa-free travel in the EU member states since 2017. By 2020, they were the third-largest group of non-EU citizens living in the bloc, behind citizens of Morocco and Turkey.

Before the war, most Ukrainians in the EU came for work. More than half of Ukrainian migrants residing in the EU got their residence permits through work. In 2020, 86 percent of the Ukrainians who applied for residence permits for the first time received their permits for employment-related reasons, the highest among all other nationals.

Ultimately, Ukrainians want their country to join the EU. Four days into the war, Ukraines President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted an application for EU membership, an act then mirrored by former Soviet states Moldova and Georgia. The EU application and linkage processes take a long time, and western members of the bloc have rebuffed Ukraines request to fast-track its approval. But after years of roadblocks, the path is open for them to take.

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How to understand the Ukrainian refugee crisis, in charts and a map - Vox.com