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Economic forecasters exist to make astrologers look good. But the recent jubilance is enough to make even weather forecasters blush.
The economy is going gangbusters! Just look at consumer spending!
Look at home prices! Look at the bull market!
Please.
I can understand the jubilation in the narrow sense that weve been down so long, everything looks up. Plus, economists who are paid by Wall Street or corporations tend to cheerlead because they believe that if consumers and businesses think the future will be great, theyll buy and invest more -- thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But prophecies cant be self-fulfilling if theyre based on wishful thinking.
The reality is were still in the doldrums, and the most recent data gives cause for serious worry. Jobs are still scarce. The share of the working-age population in jobs remains the lowest in 35 years, before wives and mothers began streaming into paid work.
And wages are still going nowhere. Most of the new jobs created since the recovery began pay less than the jobs that were lost in the recession, which means consumer spending will slow because consumers just dont have the money to keep spending.
Yes, consumer spending is up. The Commerce Department reports that consumer spending rose 3.4 percent in the first quarter of this year.
But thats only because Americans have been saving less. The personal savings rate dropped to 2.3 percent -- from 5.3 percent in the last quarter of 2012. Were down to the lowest level of savings since before the Great Recession. You dont have to be an economic forecaster, or an astrologer, to see this cant go on.
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The real economy: The weather is still stormy
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is preparing to unveil sweeping changes to the software powering iPhones and iPads, seeking to reignite desire for its products and blunt the advance of Google Inc. (GOOG)s Android mobile operating system.
Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook will kick off Apples 24th annual developers conference in San Francisco today by unveiling a new version of iOS with a simpler user interface that will scrap design features such as simulated paper and faux-wood bookshelves, according to people familiar with the plans.
The period since the iPad mini debuted in October marks one of Apples longest product gaps in more than a decade, coinciding with a 37 percent share slide from a record set the previous month. The redesign of the software behind the devices that generate more than 70 percent of Apples sales is a crucial first step toward renewing consumers interest, according to Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Barclays Plc in New York.
Apple has been in a funk and this is an important event to highlight how they are innovating, Reitzes said in an interview. We need to see that next big innovation.
With smartphones sharing many physical traits and technological features, device makers are relying more on software design and services to gain an edge and lure consumers.
As part of that, Apple will also unveil a music-streaming service, people familiar with the plans said last week. The feature wont be available until iOS 7 is released later this year. Apple may also announce enhancements to its maps and Siri voice-recognition software.
While Cupertino, California-based Apple wont be introducing a new iPhone or iPad, anticipation for the event has been building since Cook shuffled his lieutenants, putting head industrial designer Jonathan Ive in charge of the look and feel of Apples software. A longtime confidant of co-founder Steve Jobs and the draftsman behind the iPhone and Mac, Ive has been leading a remake of the iOS mobile software.
Software design hasnt been on the same level as industrial design, said Mark Hall, chief executive officer of Remixation Inc., maker of video-sharing app Showyou. People see this as a chance for the software user interface to get on par with the device design.
A lot is riding on whether those changes will prove to be a hit with buyers. Apples iOS accounted for 18 percent of global smartphone shipments in the first quarter, those running Android made up 74 percent, according to research-firm Gartner Inc. IPhone sales climbed about 16 percent in the period, lagging the smartphone market, which grew 43 percent.
Apple (AAPL) has traditionally previewed new iOS software at the conference and then released it to the public when a new iPhone is introduced later in the year. This weeks event, which costs $1,600 to attend, is geared toward application developers. As Google, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Blackberry (BBRY) try to lure engineers to build for their systems, Apple is trying to maintain the loyalty of those who create games and applications.
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Apple to Revamp IPhone Software, Ending Product Funk
ANICK JESDANUN , The Associated Press Posted: Sunday, June 9, 2013, 10:36 AM
NEW YORK - Apple is expected to reveal a digital radio service and changes to the software behind iPhones and iPads on Monday as the company opens its annual conference for software developers.
Apple hasn't said what it will unveil at the Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco. But the major announcements are expected during Monday's keynote presentation. Last year, Apple used the conference to announce its own mapping service, better integration with social networks and improvements to virtual assistant Siri. It also announced thinner MacBooks with high-resolution screens. The conference runs through Friday.
This year, Apple is expected to show off a simplified look on iPhones and iPads. If the speculation is correct, it would be the most radical design change since the iPhone made its debut in 2007, showing consumers that phones could do much more than make calls and exchange messages.
This week's event comes at an important time for Apple. The company's stock price has fallen amid concerns that another breakthrough product isn't imminent. Although CEO Tim Cook has said people shouldn't expect new products until the fall, Apple is likely to preview how future products will function in its unveiling of new services and features.
Monday's highlight is expected to be an updated version of iOS, the software that runs iPhones, iPads and iPod Touches. It will be called iOS 7 and will come with new devices expected to go on sale this fall. Owners of recent models such as last fall's iPhone 5 will likely be eligible for free upgrades.
Icons in iOS now have a three-dimensional look that tries to mimic the real-world counterparts of certain apps. For instance, the icon for the Notes app looks like a yellow notepad and the Contacts app is represented by a leather-bound address book. The speculation is that Apple will do away with that theme in iOS 7. Instead, icons will look plain and simple, offering more consistency from app to app. The new design is likely to favor black and white elements rather than splashes of color.
While design modifications could help Apple distinguish its devices from rival phones and tablets, they risk alienating longtime users.
Microsoft's radical makeover of the Windows operating system in October was meant to give the company a stronger presence on tablet computers, but it ended up confusing many people who had become accustomed to using the old operating system on traditional desktops and laptops. IDC blamed Windows 8 for accelerating a decline in PC sales.
Apple riled users of its gadgets last fall when it kicked out a beloved app using Google's mapping service and replaced it with its own Maps app. Travelers complained of misplaced landmarks, overlooked towns and other problems. What was supposed to be a triumph for Apple served to underscore Google's strength in maps. Apple CEO Tim Cook issued a rare public apology and promised improvements.
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Music service, mobile software expected from Apple
@A_lex_S_ilva Your Awesome Week in Vine Video Compilation Is Ready, plz share the Love.
Your Week in Vine Video compiled into 1 Video and uploaded shared weekly. http://YourWeekInVines.com If you Love this Viner, please "Like" then Tweet this Vi...
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@A_lex_S_ilva Your Awesome Week in Vine Video Compilation Is Ready, plz share the Love. - Video