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The fight for votes in the upcoming US presidential election is likely to be particularly focused on suburbia.

Historically, Republicans win most support in rural areas and Democrats have larger vote shares in cities. But the suburbs have long been a political battleground.

Voters in these areas have swung in favour of candidates of both parties in recent elections, making them a key target for political advertising in 2024. But there are a few key factors that could make the suburban vote slightly different this year.

Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have recorded electoral successes in suburban areas in past elections. In 2016, Trump outperformed Hillary Clinton in the suburbs, if only by a two-point margin (47-45). Just two years into his presidency, however, voting behaviour in the suburbs shifted away from Trumps Republican party.

In the 2018 midterms, Democrats won the support of 52% of suburban voters while Republicans only received 45% of the vote. Biden was able to build on this momentum in 2020, with 54% of suburban residents casting their vote for the Biden-Harris ticket while Trump fell short of his 2016 result, receiving only 44% of the suburban vote in 2020.

Under Biden, the midterms also saw slight shifts in voting behaviour in the suburbs. In the 2022 midterms, Democrats received slightly less support in the suburbs than in 2020 and 2018, gaining just 50% of the vote. Republicans, on the other hand, recorded 48%, a slight upward trend from their 2018 and 2020 results in suburban counties.

Only 5% of 2018 Democratic voters swung Republican in 2022 and only 4% of 2018 Republican voters switched to supporting Democratic candidates in 2022.

Shifting political opinions may not be the only possible explanation for swing votes in suburban counties. According to data from Pew Research, voter turnout is a much larger issue for both parties, though more so for Democrats.

Among suburban voters who voted for Democratic candidates in 2018, 22% did not vote in the 2022 midterms. On the Republican side, 16% of 2018 suburban voters stayed home in 2022.

Another possible explanation for shifting voting patterns in the suburbs lies in who has moved there recently. The population of the large suburban counties has increased by 25% in the 21st century.

Overall, population growth in the suburbs has been above the national average. And since 2000, the US population has been increasingly concentrated in the 52 largest metropolitan areas, and particularly their suburban counties.

People living in the suburbs are now more likely, than in previous decades, to be college-educated, a demographic group that has been more likely to vote for Democratic candidates and hold more liberal political views.

Interestingly, it was this demographic group, college-educated voters, who made up a large share of Nikki Haleys supporters during her Republican primary campaign. Many Republican women who backed Trump in 2016 and 2020 shifted to Haley in the 2024 primaries arguing that Haley would be able to unify the party and bring about change while Trump could not deliver on either of those issues.

Read more: State of the Union: Biden hits back at critics as he warns of threats to democracy at home and overseas

And while Trump outperformed Haley in most demographic groups throughout the primaries, college-educated women were the exception. As Trump and Biden compete for Haleys voting bloc now, the place to find these voters may just be in the suburbs. And this is where college-educated residents now make up the largest share of the population.

Both candidates could face difficulties in suburbia, though. Throughout the primaries, gaining support from suburban voters has been one of Trumps key weaknesses.

Currently, Biden is doing slightly better with the key suburban demographic groups than Trump. Among college-educated adults, Biden has a favorability rating of 46.6%, while Trump only records a 39.7% favorability rating (where people rank their feelings towards a politician as positive or negative).

However, the president may not do as well in smaller suburban counties where the population is less likely to be college-educated. Current polling shows that Trump does much better among people with education qualifications up to a high school diploma (56.7% favorability rating) than Biden (36%).

However, Trump has not been doing as well in the suburbs during the primaries as pollsters had predicted. This has raised questions about the accuracy of polls and potential biases or blind spots.

Moving populations and changing demographics are also a potential explanation. There are other issues at stake in 2024 that may cause shifts in electoral behaviour and which could mean these voters are not wiling to reveal their intentions to pollsters.

One example of this is the issue of abortion rights. While some conservative voters have disclosed that they were supportive of abortion rights and were therefore not voting for Trump, there may be a significant number of women, particularly in more conservative neighbourhoods and states, who may be hesitant to disclose such shifts in voting intentions.

Haley did well among suburban women, particularly those who had concerns about Trumps policies on family and health, wanted more focus on the economy and were not happy with the nastiness of the Trump campaign.

If the key to the White House is winning over Haleys voters, as has been widely suggested since her exit from the race, this voting group may just be what Biden needs, a detail that has not gone unnoticed by his campaign.

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Biden v Trump: winning suburbia is key to clinching the presidency in 2024 - The Conversation

No one will be above the law: Smith torches Trump with his own words in response to claims of selective prosecution and comparison to Hillary Clinton  Law & Crime

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No one will be above the law: Smith torches Trump with his own words in response to claims of selective prosecution and comparison to Hillary Clinton...

It was a common story among the Women for Nikki group. Jamie Finch, its state cochair, who had phonebanked for Haley in South Carolina, said Donald Trump voters would regularly call her a cunt and a whore on the phone. I couldnt believe it, she told me.

If these kinds of attacks were predictableespecially after Trump declared that anyone who donated to Haleys campaign would be barred, permanently, from MAGA-landthey underscored the conundrum of being Nikki Haley. In the last throes of her run, under continual pressure to cede the nomination, she had morphed into a self-styled Joan of Arc of the GOP. As her campaign sank, she fired off Taylor Swiftflavored texts and emails celebrating little girls who had given Haley friendship bracelets, which the candidate began wearing on the trail, and invoking Iron Lady Margaret Thatcher, the conservative prime minister of Britain. We are blessed to live in a country where our girls can grow up and do anything they want to do, Haley said.

If the likeness to Hillary Clinton and her 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling wasnt clear enough, Haleys campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, told me Haley was now iconic, a historic figure. Nikki Haley is the single most successful female Republican politician in history, period, she told me during a rally in Massachusetts. That cannot be denied.

In that sense, Haleys political career had come full circle. She was inspired to run for Congress in South Carolina in 2004 after hearing Clinton speak at a leadership conference for women. The reason I actually ran for office is because of Hillary Clinton, Haley said in 2012. I walked out of there thinking, Thats it. Im running for office.

Naturally, both Trump and Ron DeSantis hammered Haley with Clinton comparisons during the primaries, an easy layup for GOP voters. Nevertheless, she persistedthough very, very carefully. This is not about identity politics, Haley assured Republican voters from the stump, trying to immunize herself against charges of wokeness. I dont believe in that, and I dont believe in glass ceilings either.

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Nikki Haley's Last Dance (Or, the Hillary Clinton of It All) - Vanity Fair

Hillary Clinton said voters need to accept the reality that President Joe Biden, 81, is old in a new interview with SiriusXM Progress host Zerlina Maxwell.

The former secretary of state and 2016 presidential nominee appeared on Mornings with Zerlina ahead of Super Tuesday and told listeners that former President Donald Trump, 78, is also old, yet more dangerous to the future of the country.

Listen to Clintons full interview with Maxwell on the SiriusXM app and web player now.

Ahead of a likely rematch of the 2020 Presidential Election, both Bidens and Trumps ages will be among the biggest issues of the 2024 campaign. Yet, so far, its been more a problem for Biden. Clinton pushed back against voters concerns though.

I would put Joe Bidens record up against anybodys Clinton said. He got a lot done, and were the better for it. If you are worried about that, listen to Donald Trump, who is ranting, making no sense, cant even remember who he is running against. He constantly talks about Barack Obama being his opponent. Last I checked that wasnt happening. So, if youre worried about a person not necessarily knowing whats going on, Id worry a lot more about Donald Trump.

In addition to addressing both Bidens and Trumps ages, Clinton also touched on why the 2024 Presidential Election is a choice of saving democracy, talked about Vice President Kamala Harris, discussed authoritarianism, and more.

So, really, pick between your two old ones and figure out how youre going to save our democracy, Clinton added. Because no matter where you stand on the political spectrum, you want to maintain freedom and the rule of law and protection for peoples fundamental rights, or at least I used to think so.

Clintons comments come ahead of the biggest voting day of the year, Super Tuesday, when voters in 16 states and one territory will cast their ballots. It also comes shortly after a New York Times/Siena College poll found that 61% of Bidens 2020 supporters now believe he is just too old to be an effective president.

Listen to around-the-clock updates about Super Tuesday, political analysis, exclusive interviews, and more from every political angle on SiriusXMs political channels.

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Hillary Clinton Defends Biden's Age and Rips Trump in New Interview - SiriusXM Blog

In an interview for a Sirius XM radio show on Tuesday, former US Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said that President Joe Biden is old, but [has] been an effective president and does not pose a threat to our democracy, while his competitor, ex-president Donald Trump, is old, barely makes sense when he talks, is dangerous,and threatens our democracy.

Pick between your two old ones, Clinton said, laughing, And figure out how youre going to save our democracy. Because no matter where you stand on the political spectrum, you want to maintain freedom, and the rule of law, and protection for peoples fundamental rights, or at least I used to think so.

The presidential election in November is on track to be a rematch between President Biden, who was elected in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic and exploding racial tensions and now sees his approval rating among the lowest in history, and Donald Trump, the lightning rod of controversy who, after four years as president himself, sought to overturn the results of that election, culminating in the riot at the US Capitol building on January 6, 2021.

The issue of President Bidens aging has been a major concern for voters and the media, with a recent New York Times poll finding that a majority of those who voted for Biden in 2020 say he is too old to be effective in a second term. Biden, who will turn 81 shortly after the election, is the oldest person ever to serve as US president beating the previous record of 74, set by former President Trump.

Both men have been accused of cognitive decline, and both deny that they have dulled.

Clinton, who lost to Trump in 2016, also addressed the Supreme Court decision this week that overturned Colorados disqualification of the ex-president to appear on their states ballot in November. The case hinges on an interpretation of the Thirteenth Amendment to the US Constitution, which prohibits those who have engaged in insurrection from holding federal office.

The justices disagreed on the reasoning behind their opinion, with the conservative members of the court making a larger claim about the enforcement of that amendment, while the liberal justices limited their decision to a narrower response to this particular case. The nine members of the court, however, were unanimous in their decision.

Clinton said that while she does believe Trump should be considered an insurrectionist, she is not surprised this court would make this decision, adding that ultimately, its up to the American people to prevent [Trump] from getting near the Oval Office again.

Original post:
Clinton: Both candidates are old, but Trump endangers democracy - The Jerusalem Post