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President Donald Trump has been accustomed to going into an election trailing his Democratic rival in polls and still coming out victorious. But this time around, the margin is even greater and the polls may be more accurate.

Four years ago, Americans felt confident Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the election. Going into the final month of the 2016 election, Trump trailed Clinton by about three percentage points. But when election night came, Trump took the White House by way of the Electoral College.

Now the incumbent in the White House trails Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden by about seven-percentage points, according to a RealClearPolitics average.

At least publicly, Trump doesn't put a lot of stock in polls and is known to dismiss those that show him as the losing candidate. While his accusations that polls are "fake" are unproven, the president has a point that the surveys aren't always an indicator of the outcome of an election, especially when considering the Electoral College.

Months-long polling giving Clinton a victory in 2016 were partially to blame for why Trump's election night win came as such a surprise, and experts have yet to issue the final verdict on why the predictions were wrong. But a 2017 report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research identified three main reasons: people changed their vote preference close to the election; college graduates were overrepresented in polls; and Trump voters didn't reveal their candidate.

While polls were wrong that Clinton would win the election, on a national level, the report noted that they were fairly accurate. Polls that put Clinton ahead of Trump by about three percentage points were "basically correct," because she won the popular vote by about two percentage points more than Trump.

It's possible the same could be true for 2020, and Biden's support on the national stage won't be reflective of how many Electoral College votes each candidate receives. However, if he can maintain the lead he has now, John Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University, told Newsweek it's a "real problem" for the Electoral College.

Polls are also assuming the electorate will look like it did in 2016, Geer said, when voter turnout in the Black communitya loyal voting bloc for the Democratic Partydeclined during a presidential election for the first time in 20 years. If Black voters turn out how they did in 2012a record-high yearGeer said Biden could have an even bigger lead.

"I wouldn't want to bet a lot of money on either of them because there are so many unknowns. But the trauma, so to speak, that the Democrats faced with the surprising loss in 2016 continues to shape 2020 and there's a lot of concern about getting people to vote because a lot of people didn't in 2016," Geer said.

Part of the reason state polls were wrong in 2016 is that pollsters didn't give education the proper weight to adjust for an accurate sample of well-educated and less-educated respondents. Voters with at least a college degree went for Clinton by more than 20 percentage points while Trump took the non-college grad vote by seven percentage points, according to Pew Research. However, when broken out by race, Clinton's lead among white college graduates shrunk by four percentage points, while Trump's advantage with white non-college graduates increased by 29 percentage points.

In Midwestern states where there are large working-class populations, this could account for why state-level polls still showed Clinton with a lead and why Trump's victory was such a surprise. However, The New York Times noted that some state-level polls in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that gave proper weight to education still put Clinton on top.

Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by about five percentage points. Around the same time in 2016, Clinton also had an almost five-percentage point lead in Wisconsin and a three percentage point lead in Pennsylvania, although she'd widen the margin between her and Trump in Pennsylvania to more than nine percentage points in the middle of the month.

A month later, Trump won Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a slim margin of less than one percentage point. He also won Florida by 1.2 percentage points, just about the same margin polls gave Clinton to win at the beginning of October. Winning those three states, gave Trump 59 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.

A slim victory is still a victory when it comes to states that award all their electoral college votes to one candidate, as is the case in every state except Maine and Nebraska. But it also means that had there been a slight change in the wind, it could have gone the other waymaking it a possibility that Trump might not win those states again.

After the 2016 election, pollsters took a "very hard look" at how they conducted their surveys, Geer said, and made adjustments for where they went wrong. Polls in the 2018 midterm election proved to be a relatively good predictor of the election and nonpartisan polls taken in the three weeks prior to people casting ballots were more accurate than the average poll since 1998, according to CNN.

"Like generals, we always fight the last war," Geer said. "We're focusing on state polls. But if Biden wins this election by eight points nationally, he's going to win Electoral College."

Link:
With One Month to the Election, Trump's Faring Worse Than He Was in 2016 Against Clinton - Newsweek

Hillary Clinton's interview on MSNBC was interrupted by a Zoom notification.

Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in the middle of an MSNBC interview being conducted over Zoom when the video conferencing service chimed in to remind her that her meeting would end in 10 minutes.

"You meeting will end in 10 min. Contact your IT team to upgrade to Zoom Pro for unlimited meeting minutes," Zoom told Ms Clinton through a pop-up notification. It seems like neither the TV channel nor the former presidential candidate had upgraded their Zoom accounts, preferring to use the free version where meetings can only go on for 40 minutes.

A picture of Zoom's pop-up notification blocking Hillary Clinton's face on national television quickly went viral on social media - earning an amused response from the politician herself.

"Ok, ok, I'll upgrade," Hillary Clinton promised in a hilarious tweet on Wednesday, which has been 'liked' by nearly 50,000 people on the microblogging platform.

At a time when the coronavirus pandemic has forced millions of people across the world to work from home and attend work meetings remotely - mostly through platforms like Zoom - many found Ms Clinton's predicament quite relatable.

"For some reason I was comforted to know she uses the free version of Zoom like the rest of us," one Twitter user wrote.

The picture of Zoom's time notification popping up on TV was described by several people as the defining image of the year 2020.

Video conferencing platforms like Zoom saw a huge surge in popularity earlier this year as the pandemic forced people inside and meetings moved online.

Link:
Hillary Clinton's Hilarious Tweet After Reaching Zoom's Time Limit On TV - NDTV

HILLARY Clinton has inadvertently fuelled a bizarre QAnon conspiracy theory that she is a satanist by sharing a photo from her study showing a book that features glass devils having sex.

'Erotics' by Italian glass artist Lucio Bubacco is one of several books seen propping up Clinton's laptop in the picture, which was posted earlier this week showing her recording her new podcast, 'You And Me Both'.

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The hardcover 2018 book, which costs between $50 and $70, is said by one online seller to feature carnavalesque orgies, crystalline incubi and erotic fantasies in glass.

It features photographs of handmade glass devils posing in various positions, some of them sexual.

Hundreds of QAnon conspiracy theorists, who hold the debunked belief that President Donald Trump is battling an elite of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run the world, including Hillary and her husband Bill, have taken it as a sign that their baseless worldview is true.

Twitter user Miss Liberty, who spotted the book, posted: I wonder why she would have a book by a satanic erotic glass artist? Her post has now been liked and re-Tweeted thousands of times.

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QAnon followers also think a 'Deep State' is operating within government, largely run by Democratic politicians and liberal-minded celebrities, which the president is trying to bring down.

The conspiracy theory has been linked to a number of violent incidents, such as the killing in New York of suspected mob boss Francesco Cali.

His 24-year-old accused killer Anthony Comello has claimed in court documents that he believed Cali was linked to the so-called Deep State and that he was acting under the protection of the president.

A user on the Q Research discussion board on the far-right 8kun site, which obsesses about the conspiracy theory, said of Clinton's picture: Satanic glass maker, wow.

Scores of other posts on 8kun also refer to the book.

The Q in QAnon is said to refer to an anonymous insider who has secret information about the Trump administration. The conspiracy theory began in 2017 and has since snowballed in popularity around the world.

Well-known figures who have repeated some of QAnons claims include actors Roseanne Barr and James Woods, ex-porn star Jenna Jameson and former national security adviser, Mike Flynn.

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In 2018, Roseanne Tweeted an unsubstantiated claim that President Trump was breaking up child trafficking rings in high places everywhere.

James Woods, who has 2.6 million Twitter followers, posted a conspiracy this week about Joe Biden wearing a wire during his debate with the President.

Jenna Jameson posted in 2019: Us conspiracy theorists keep getting proven right.

On July 4th, Mike Flynn, the presidents first national security adviser, Mike Flynn, posted a video to Twitter that said, "Where we go one, we go all!

The phrase is used by QAnon supporters.

Travis View, a QAnon researcher and host of the QAnon Anonymous podcast, told The Sun: This book in Hillary's photo plays into the QAnon belief that they can look behind the scenes of power and decode hidden meaning.

They do believe that if they find devil imagery then theyve found evidence of a crime.

Its crazy, ridiculous, ludicrous, but it doesnt stop people falling for it.

Criminal investigators for example, arent convinced someone is a criminal or have evidence someone is a criminal if they find a photo of a devil in someones home. Thats not how law enforcement works.

Hillary shouldnt worry about what books she has in her study. She really doesnt need to cater to peoples delusions.

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He added: I hope we arent getting to a situation like how architects dont put 13th floors in buildings because of peoples superstitions.

If we have to start thinking about QAnon theories more and more in our lives and how to avoid it, it will be very worrying.

Sadly, I think though this conspiracy theory is going to be around for a generation and if Trump wins the election the movement will explode.

If he loses, it will get more radical. Theyll convince themselves there was a conspiracy against him and them.

Either way, its here to stay. It really is amazing how it has caught on and a lot of it is down to the social media giants. They need to do more to stop it.

Joe Szimhart, cult information specialist and QAnon debunker, said: This just shows this thing is getting out of control.

Seeing Trump as an agent to prevent a left-wing cabal taking over the United States is ridiculous.

It plays into peoples fears about mind games and being manipulated, hidden signs such as the all-seeing eye on the dollar bill, that kind of thing.

The Founding Fathers said the country needs a solid education. Americans need to be able to think with reason so they can these things aren't hidden symbols. The truth is they don't mean anything.

If were going to fight this, it has to be through education.

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Asked about QAnon in August, President Trump said: I understand they like me very much, which I appreciate. But I dont know much about the movement.

Presidential candidate Joe Biden has criticised QAnon, calling it mortifying adding its embarrassing, and its dangerous.

The Democrat hopeful added its believers should seek mental health treatment.

I'd recommend the people who believe it maybe should take advantage, while it still exists, of the Affordable Care Act, he said.

Lucio Bubacco has been a master glassmaker since the 1980s and his works include angels and horses, not just devils, which are admired by collectors around the world.

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His website explains he likes to use images from the "mythological past when sexuality was not political but spiritual".

The Sun approached representatives for Hillary Clinton for comment.

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Hillary Clinton fuels bizarre QAnon conspiracy theory after shes spotted with book featuring glass devils h - The Sun

Howard Stern was jumping out of his skin when he finally sat down to interview former Secretary of State and former First Lady, Hillary Clinton. Their incredible 2019 interview was one that he had been chasing for years.

The SiriusXM radio legend has gone through quite a transformation over the years. While he was once known as an inappropriate shock jock, he has since earned the title of being one of the greatest celebrity interviewers of all time.

Sure, his long-running radio show, The Howard Stern Show, is still full of hilarious potty humor, aggressive rants, and brutal honesty. But it's also home to some of the most incredibly revealing interviews around.

So, it made sense that he wanted to get Secretary Hillary Clinton on his show before the 2016 election. Especially since The Stern Show was also home to various Donald Trump interviews. That is until Howard rejected the opportunity to endorse Trump for president. Instead, he endorsed Hillary Clinton, a woman he had admired for decades.

However, the established politician refused to come on his show for years...

Perhaps out of fear? Maybe being around him would upset her more politically correct followers? Who knows... but she refused... Until,seemingly out-of-nowhere, Howard was able to get Secretary Hillary Clinton on his SiriusXM radio show for a whopping 2 and a half hours.

Here's what it was like for Howard to finally interview her...

In Howard's 2019 book of his best interviews, "Howard Stern Comes Again", the radio host, former AGT judge, and blockbuster film star (Private Parts) detailed his desire to get Hillary Clinton on his show. Listeners of his radio show have heard him explain his desire to interview her numerous times. However, Howard beautifully encapsulated his reasoning in the book.

Aside from his admiration and his desire to see her become president, he also said this:

"I saw long before anyone else that it wasn't going to be easy for her to beat Donald. I didn't see her connecting. My audience spans the entire country, including the swing states. I know these people. They've been listening to me my entire career. I could tell that they were just not feeling Hillary and that they were really embracing Donald."

Howard knew thatTrump was connecting in a way that Hillary Clinton wasn't, therefore he wanted to do everything in his power to get her on his show to change that.

Howard knows he has a skill in interviewing and getting his guests to reveal their authentic sides. He believed that he could've helped her win over some of the voters that she wasn't winning over on the campaign trail...

Given the results of the 2016 election, perhaps Howard was right.

He and his agent as well as his producer, Gary Dell'Abate, did everything they could to get her on... But she wouldn't. Howard believes that has to do with the fact that she was afraid of his reputation from the '80s and '90s. That he would've attacked her and would've hurt her chances even more...

But nothing was further from the truth. He was on her side and wanted to help her reveal who she truly is in a hope that people would be as impressed with her as he was. This tactic has worked for Rosie O'Donnell, Ellen DeGeneres, Miley Cyrus, and even Lady Gaga, who his fanbase wasn't initially drawn to.

Related: The Truth About Howard Sterns Relationship With Rosie ODonnell

After "Howard Stern Comes Again" came out, and as Hillary Clinton was promoting her new book, she decided to accept his invitation.While it sometimes seems as though there arethings that Hillary and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, want to keep on the DL, she revealed a lot to Howard.

In the interview, she spoke about her love before Bill Clinton, her relationships with her family, what it felt like to lose to Donald Trump, her contention with Senator Bernie Sanders, and even the kind of music she listens to. Almost none of this felt forced. It was authentic. Relaxed. And even a little funny... And Howard was right... multiple callers phoned in and explained that they hated her before the interview but now they wished she were the president.

At the beginning of their lengthy, in-depth interview in December 2019, Howard told Secretary Clinton how much she meant to him.

"I don't know if you read this piece of mine. But my fantasy was not only to meet you but to tell you what a hero you were to me. And how special you are to me."

"Did you ever hear about his support for you?" Robin Quivers, Howard's longtime co-host asked Secretary Clinton.

"I didn't until in the 2016 campaign," Hillary said shortly after Howard told her that he was a fan of hers even when she ran against Barack Obama in 2007/2008.

Related: Heres The One Thing Howard Stern Is Most Insecure About

In the interview, it was clear that Howard had done a ton of prep to be able to ask Secretary Clinton about her personal life, her career in politics, and her new book about gutsy women. He was on top of things, he was excited, and he was able to show off Hillary Clinton show off some of her more impressive qualities.

Howard Stern received massive kudos from the press for his interview with Hillary Clinton, even from those who openly dislike her. It was also clear that Hillary Clinton had a wonderful time, she even claimed that he was one of the best interviews she had ever done.

Within the interview itself,Secretary Clinton admitted that she was 'wowed' by the level of Howard's insight. Especially when he related the fact that she had a tough relationship with her distant father to how infantilized she becomes when being taken care of by the Secret Service.

"They worry about your every move, they worry about your safety, they constantly-they drive you, you almost become infantilized, in a sense."

"Again, I think that's pretty perceptive," she said. "Your therapy really--- it pays off. You've got really insightful [comments]."

You could see that interviewing Hillary Clinton was one of the highlights of Howard Stern's illustrious career. It is just too bad that it didn't happen sooner... Maybe it would've changed the results of the election. Let's hope Vice President Joe Biden takes up Howard's offer to come onto The Stern Show.

Next: Heres Why Howard Stern Is The Most Effective Celebrity To Take On Donald Trump

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Dylan Parker is a list and content writer working for Valnet Inc. He's written for The Things, The Talko, Baby Gaga, Moms, and Screen Rant. He specializes in entertainment, film, and celebrity news. Dylan has also written for Narcity and various other entertainment, food, and travel publications.

The rest is here:
Here's What It Was Like For Howard Stern To interview Hillary Clinton - TheThings

Next week, Hillary Rodham Clinton, former secretary of state, former presidential candidate, and former first lady will be using her lofty platform to promote a novel through Politics and Prose. Yes, you read that correctlyHRC will be in conversation with Louise Penny, the author of the thrillerAll the Devils Are Here. The book is set in Paris, and tells the tale of the Gamache family and a strange key found in a members possession. Anyone depressed about not traveling this year can live vicariously through the Parisian venues, from the top of the Tour dEiffel to luxury French hotels to the bowels of the Paris Archives. The Clinton/Penny pairing is not entirely randomClinton mentioned in her 2017 memoirWhat Happenedthat she's a major fan of the crime writer. Talk about unprecedented times: A typical free, wander-in-and-listen Politics and Prose book talk with Clinton would essentially be impossible for security reasons. Now that were all in our own homes, the bookstore seems to have jumped on the opportunity. Maybe the pandemic has its benefits? The talk begins at 5 p.m. on Sept. 1. Registration is available at eventbrite.com. $30$55.Kate Oczypok

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City Lights: Hillary Clinton Talks Thriller All the Devils Are Here - Washington City Paper