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The chart shows the comparison between Clinton and Biden ahead of their respective elections.

Biden has opened up a wide polling lead but we're 22 days away from the election and it's notable that this was the exact time last cycle that Clinton peaked. Her support faded over the final three weeks of the campaign and Trump won narrow victories in Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan to take the Presidency.

Will history repeat itself? As Trump gets back on the campaign trail after coronavirus, it's worth contemplating but there are two big differences: 1) Clinton never reached this much total support. Biden is at almost 52% while Clinton never hit 50%. 2) There are fewer voters who say they are undecided; leaving less room for a swing.

In 2016, almost all presidential election polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump's 2016 victory. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.

Yet the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has a few stark contrasts with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Most obviously, a majority of likely voters back Biden (51.9%). Yet Clinton's support topped out around 45% in IBD/TIPP presidential election polls in the final weeks of the 2016 race.

Further, Biden's 9-point lead among independents in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll is a big turnaround from 2016. Trump carried independents 43%-42% in 2016, according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters.

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Hillary Clinton's support peaked at this point in the last election cycle - ForexLive

PHILADELPHIA When President Donald Trump told the world that "bad things happen in Philadelphia," it was, in part, a blunt assessment of his party's struggles in the nation's sixth-most populous city.

For decades, Philadelphia has been the cornerstone of Democratic victories in the battleground state producing Democratic margins so massive that winning statewide has been a longshot for most Republican presidential candidates.

But it's a longshot Trump pulled off in 2016 and is trying to repeat again. His debate stage disdain for the City of Brotherly Love which quickly inspired memes and T-shirts underscored his campaign's months-long effort to fight the blue tide that starts in the city.

That fight has involved court challenges and statehouse wrangling over mail-in voting and poll watching, efforts Democrats characterize as voter suppression.

And it came as Trump openly declared, citing no evidence, that the only way he can lose Pennsylvania to former Vice President Joe Biden is through a massive fraud engineered by Democrats in the city of 1.6 million.

But Trump can't change the basic political math in the state: one in eight registered voters live in Philadelphia, a city that keeps delivering increasingly large Democratic margins, routinely provides one in five votes for Democratic presidential candidates and is spurring a leftward drift in the heavily populated suburbs around it.

"Trump is right, 'bad things happen in Philadelphia,' especially for him," Philadelphia's Democratic Party chair, Bob Brady, said. "And bad things are going to happen for him in Philadelphia on Election Day."

Recent polls show Trump and Biden in a competitive race in Pennsylvania, or Biden ahead by single-digits in a state Trump won by just over 44,000 votes less than a percentage point in 2016.

Trump's victory was the first by a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, and it shocked Pennsylvania Democrats to the core.

In Philadelphia, Biden's campaign is putting a heavy emphasis on turning out Black and Latino voters and is bringing in former President Barack Obama to campaign there. Trump's campaign is making its own appeal to Black and Latino voters and hoping for even better results with his white, working-class base.

Brady predicted Philadelphia will carry the rest of Pennsylvania and produce a bigger margin of victory for Biden than the 475,000 it produced for Hillary Clinton in 2016. That gap was slightly smaller than the historic margins Obama had in 2008 and 2012.

The Biden campaign has several "voter activation" centers around the city, not to mention Biden's campaign headquarters.

Trump's campaign, meanwhile, opened offices in heavily Black west Philadelphia and in heavily white northeast Philadelphia.

Thanks to a year-old state law that greatly expanded mail-in voting, people now have weeks to vote and turnout is brisk at newly opened election offices around the city where voters can fill out and cast ballots.

That is giving hope to Philadelphia Democrats, after the city's predominantly Black wards did not turn out as strongly in 2016 for Clinton as they did for Obama, including some that delivered 10% fewer votes.

"The line went around the block," state Rep. Chris Rabb, whose district is 70% Black, said of a newly opened election office there. "It was nothing that I've seen since 2008 and I've worked the polls for 16 years now."

In a city that is 42% Black, the belief that Trump has fueled a racist surge is widely held.

Breaking up concrete on a contracting job at a west Philadelphia rowhouse this week, Dexter Ayres, a lifelong Democrat, said he already voted for Biden in hopes of improving how Black people are treated in America.

Some of his friends are skeptical that voting will change anything. Ayres, who is Black, admitted that makes him wonder, "Wow, why did I vote?"

"But then I look at it like: 'Well, maybe my vote will make a difference,'" Ayres said. "I'm just praying and leaving it in God's hands."

Sitting on her front porch in west Philadelphia this week, Latoya Ratcliff, a Democrat, said she will vote for Biden, and sees more enthusiasm in her neighborhood to vote out Trump than in 2016 to vote for Hillary Clinton.

The defining issue for Ratcliff, who is Black, is racism.

"They understand a little more about getting out and getting that vote out," said Ratcliff, 39.

In northeast Philadelphia, Trump saw unexpectedly strong support from an area with a reputation for being home to unionized building trades members, police officers and firefighters. Republicans say they now expect even stronger support for Trump there.

"Back the Blue" yard signs and thin-blue-line flags are everywhere in some neighborhoods, the city's police union endorsed Trump again and the city's firefighters and paramedics union also endorsed him, breaking with its international association's endorsement of Biden.

Leaving his northeast Philadelphia home to go shopping recently, lifelong Democrat Joe Dowling said he will vote for Trump after backing Clinton four years ago. The issue that changed his mind, he said, has been the violence in the wake of George Floyd's death and a backlash against police.

"It's out of control," said Dowling, 60, who is white. "There's no reason for anybody to disrespect the police."

Democrats acknowledge that they slipped in northeast Philadelphia in 2016 the swing was about 11,000 voters from 2012.

Still, the area snapped back for Democrats in 2018 and U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle, who represents it in Congress, said he expects Biden to do better there than Clinton.

He recalled a paper-shredding event his office last fall, attended by hundreds in the parking lot of the plumbers' union office in northeast Philadelphia.

"I was surprised by the animus toward Trump, people unsolicited saying, 'Gotta get him out of there, he's a disaster,'" said Boyle, a Democrat. "And it was different. I wasn't hearing that a few years earlier."

Stephen Lomas, a long-time registered Republican who lives between two Trump supporters in northeast Philadelphia, said he will vote for Biden.

Lomas, 84, who is white, said Trump and members of his administration "are tearing down our belief in the system. ... They're out-and-out crooks. They're almost traitors to our Constitution."

Besides mail-in voting, another thing that is different in this presidential election is a network of allied liberal issues and community groups in Philadelphia, organizers say, with a long-term focus on reaching people unlikely to vote in predominantly Black and Latino neighborhoods.

Briheem Douglas, vice president of Unite Here Local 274, a union of casino, food service and hotel workers that supports Biden, said he is canvassing harder than ever before.

Douglas, 36, tells a personal story to everyone he meets who isn't planning to vote: He is caring for the infant child of his 21-year-old niece, Brianna, who died in September from the coronvavirus.

"So I'm laser-focused on canvassing more than in 2016," Douglas said.

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For Trump, city where 'bad things happen' looms large - Minneapolis Star Tribune

While most national and swing state polling shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a substantial lead over President Donald Trump in the 2020 race, the numbers are being eyed with some wariness by voters.

That's due in part to the fact that polling in the 2016 presidential race missed the reality on the ground in key swing states, which led to spurious predictions of a strong win for then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Those key states went on to go for Trump, of course, resulting in one of the biggest perceived political upsets in modern history.

So how seriously should we take horse race polling in 2020?

To find out what's changed in polling since 2016, WBUR's Morning EditionhostBob Oakes spoke with Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group.

On how polling got the story wrong in 2016

Koczela:It was a combination of things, really. Polls were showing Hillary Clinton in the lead in key states. Then those polls were taken by aggregators and forecasters and so forth, and basically used to make a probability that Hillary Clinton would be the president.

Now, unfortunately, there was not very much polling in some swing states, polls that weren't very good in some swing states and then polls that didn't account for the education level of voters and basically had too many college-educated voters in their samples. What that does because education is such an indicator of partisanship is that if you don't account for that, you end up with a sample that is too Democratic. That hasn't always been the case. Education college education hasn't always been as partisan of a thing as it is now.

There were some other things going on too: The election was still moving at the last minute. Polls that were done you know, seven to 10 days out missed undecided voters breaking for Donald Trump at the last minute. One of the reasons that 2016 turned out the way that it did was that voters who didn't like either Trump or Clinton broke very heavily for Trump and they broke very late for Trump.

On what's changed in polling since 2016

Koczela:[In 2016,] national media outlets were focused on national polling which, of course, as we all know is not how we pick the president. So one thing you're seeing [in 2020] is a lot more state polling from groups like The New York Times and the Siena Poll ... The Washington Post. ... We never know if there's going to be some new wrinkle that's come up that we didn't anticipate, like education was in 2016, but at least we can say that the things that happened in 2016 pollsters and the broader polling community have addressed those things.

What pollsters will be watching for in 2020

Koczela:If there's one thing in 2020 that I think does pose a special challenge for pollsters, it's all the changes to the rules and not knowing exactly what that's going to do to who actually turns out. Will there be a swell of young people? Will there be a swell of Democrats early and Republicans late and does that somehow change the balance of party turnout? Does it change, you know, where voters turn out if it's more difficult to turn in ballots in some places than in others?

On the limits of polling

Koczela:I think polling sometimes has a level of precision that people want from it, that it just is not designed to provide. You know, it can describe the race it can show where the race is within a relatively wide level of precision. But it can't predict the future. It can't predict that [James] Comey is going to, you know, write a letter and change everything with a week to go, and that undecided voters are going to swing for Trump at the last minute. It can't do those things. So I think it's also just important for pollsters to be clear about what it is that we can do and what it is that polls really aren't designed to be able to do.

... People that don't do numbers in polling everyday, you know, they read Trump has a 30% chance of winning as Clinton is way ahead. Instead of: '30%, that's a lot!' You know, imagine a 300 major league hitter. That's a really good hitter. You wouldn't think, 'Well, that guy's never gonna get a hit because 70% of the time he doesn't.' That was basically the situation in 2016. That's what Five Thirty Eight was saying: that Clinton is probably going to win, but there's still a really good chance Trump's going to win.

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Have Pollsters In 2020 Learned The Lessons Of 2016? - WBUR

Noah Benjamin Reisman, a native of Port Washington who assisted presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, has died.

Reisman, whose family says he died following a tragic accident, was 26.

Born on May 22, 1994 to Steve and Elizabeth Reisman, the young Reisman attended Carrie Palmer Weber Middle School and went on to serve as as captain of the debate team at Schreiber High School, finishing second in the New York State Debate Championship. He also served as a student representative on the Port Washington Board of Education in his senior year, just before graduating in 2012.

In 2016, Reisman graduated from Dartmouth College with a degree in government. During his senior year, he began serving on the advance team for Clinton, and eventually reached a position as advance motorcade lead.

Following the election, Reisman traveled to Israel, Jordan, and countries throughout Asia. He then returned to Manhattan to work as a paralegal at the law firm Morrison & Foerster LLP, in its capital markets group. He then attended the George Washington University Law School for one year, where he made the schools Law Review. He then transferred to Columbia Law School, where he was selected as a member of the Columbia Journal of Transnational Law.

Port Washington school board President Nora Johnson paid tribute to Reisman at the boards meeting on Tuesday night.

He was a wonderful young man who was loved by everyone who had the privilege of knowing him, Johnson said. While at Schreiber, Noah served as a student representative on the board so some of us knew him, which is typical of him. He was involved, he was a doer. He was outgoing, brilliant, incredibly kind, and committed to making the world a better place during his very short 26 years, and he actually did make the world a better place. Our hearts go out to his family and friends. May his life be a blessing.

Reismans former colleague and friend Ian Mellul recalled him in a Medium post, remembering when the two of them transported the Clintons to their polling place in upstate Chappaqua on Election Day in 2016.

Significant does not even come close to describing his presence in a room, Mellul wrote. From his eye contact to his gentle, warm greetings, Noah always made you feel like you were the only person in the room.

Following his funeral two weeks ago, at which his family says Bill and Hillary Clinton were present, Reisman was buried at Mt. Ararat Cemetery in Lindenhurst and is survived by his parents, brother Sam, sister Rachel, his grandparents, and various relatives.

The family asks those who would like to honor Reismans memory to make a donation to the Noah Benjamin Reisman Foundation, which supports the values that Reisman embraced, including racial justice, educational equity, and helping those in need. Donations can be made to: The Noah Benjamin Reisman Foundation Inc.c/o Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP, attn: Lorissa Garcia, 525 W. Monroe Street, Chicago, IL 60661, or online at http://www.noahbenjaminreismanfoundation.org.

If anyone would like to share a memory, the family encourages emails to liveanoahlife@gmail.com

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Port native, Clinton campaign aide Noah Reisman dies at 26 - Featured - The Island Now

The Clinton emails scandal marked a turning point in the run-up to the 2016 US presidential elections - and mere weeks before the 2020 polls, US President Donald Trump has brought them back into the news.

Trump has called on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to publicly release emails Hillary Clinton had on a private server while working for the Barack Obama administration - tens of thousands of which had already been leaked in 2016.

While observers in the US are chalking up the renewed discussion of Clinton's emails to Trump's re-election campaign, curiously, the topic has attracted a lot of attention in the Middle East.

Hillary Clinton emails: Why the Saudi-led disinformation network is recycling old news

Between 2009 and 2013, Clinton served as secretary of state during a crucial period in the history of the Arab region, including the early years of the so-called Arab Spring, when a wave of revolutions and popular uprisings spread across several countries.

With her tenure coinciding with such a momentous era of Arab political history, there has been plenty of conjecture in Arab media - perhaps revealing as much about those writing the news as the correspondence being discussed.

The Egyptian Institute for Political and Strategic Studies (EIPSS), a research organisation operating from Turkey, has launched a project to analyse the Clinton emails.

"Revealing these confidential correspondences that have dealt with this era is of great importance," read areport published on Wednesday, "regardless of the evaluation of these emails and the political position behind it."

The institute said one document revealed that former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who was ousted in February 2011, had "sought to promote a Western conspiratorial plan to control Egypt, just as Chinese propaganda used to justify any popular uprising that takes place in the country".

The institute has called on researchers and experts to join the study, which will be published on the institute's website, in order to achieve a deeper understanding of this phase of Egypt's modern history - and to understand US policy regarding the events that took place at the time.

In a matter of hours on Sunday, Saudi and Emirati social media accounts circulated tens of thousands of tweets misleadingly reporting that new Clinton emails had been leaked, Arabic website Noonpost reported - despite the news being five years old.

But why such a flurry of coverage, the website asks.

"It is clear that this systematic campaign aims to distract the world from the crises that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are currently facing, and achieve an imaginary victory by using misleading information to cover up the political and economic failure of the policies of [Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad] Bin Salman and [Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammad] Bin Zayed," Noonpost wrote.

The news outlet noted bin Zayed had been "facing a massive wave of criticism due to the normalisation agreement his country signed with Tel Aviv in Washington on 15 September", adding that MBS, as the Saudi crown prince is known, had also been dealing with dissent, including the creation of a new opposition party earlier this month calling for democracy in the Gulf kingdom.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi-owned news website Al-Ainpublished a column alleging that that "Clinton's emails have revealed the political abuses and moral degradation of political elites in some countries in the region, coupled with a lack of awareness and naivety on the part of US elite, which has dragged the Arab region into an endless chain of chaos and division".

The article added: "Those who read Clinton's emails will be surprised by the wise and courageous role that countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played in preserving the integrity of Arab states, as both countries have embarked in recent years on the path of eliminating plans aimed at sowing chaos in the region.

"The information leaked through Hillary Clinton's emails could force the next US administration to reprioritise its strategic relations in the Arab region by giving greater influence to the moderate Arab coalition led by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi," the columnist went on to write.

Meanwhile, Qatari newspaper Al-Sharq took aim at the Trump administration for bringing the Clinton emails back to the fore, pointing out how the news has been a boon for Doha's rivals, namely Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

"As soon as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pledged to publish the emails of the former secretary of state and presidential candidate... the Emirati media machine has been working to launch misinformation campaigns against Qatar," the publication wrote.

"The UAE tried, through its suspicious media, to transmit messages against Qatar and Al Jazeera to Arab and Gulf public opinion, hinting that both parties have a connection to an alliance between the Democrats in the US and the Muslim Brotherhood," al-Sharq added.

Why has this issue come back to the fore now, some news outlets have wondered. UK-based Alkhaleej Online spoke with Khaled al-Jaber, director of the MENA Center for Research in Washington DC.

"These emails, which Trump and his administration are betting on, are just a storm in a teacup and will not prove to be a real boon in the coming elections," Jaber predicted.

"Trump has become unable to attract undecided voters, especially since his Democratic rival does not have major scandals to be unveiled, so he ordered the disclosure of these emails as a tactic to win the elections," he added.

Jaber stressed that the emails concerned Hillary Clinton alone and not current Democratic candidate Joe Biden or his entourage, and "do not reveal any major scandals within the Democratic Party", adding that, while these materials are of great interest to people in the Middle East, they are unlikely to sway a significant portion of the American electorate.

*Arabic press review is a digest of reports that are not independently verified as accurate by Middle East Eye.

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Arabic press review: What is Arab media saying about the Clinton emails? - Middle East Eye