Archive for the ‘Hillary Clinton’ Category

How James Comey’s ‘October Surprise’ Doomed Hillary Clinton’s Candidacy – The National Memo (blog)

Reprinted with permission from AlterNet.

Do you remember how you felt last October after you heard that FBI Director James Comey was reopening the FBIs investigation into Hillary Clintons possible illegal handling of classified communiqus while Secretary of State just 11 days before the presidential election?

That news, which left me with a sinking feeling that all but erased the confidence I had in Clintons prospects after the three presidential debates, was the moment that Donald Trump won the election, according to an analysis released this week by a data firm that tracks the psychological elements below patterns of consumer behavior, moods, and sentiment.

Many Americansand particularly those of us working in data-driven businesseswould like to see a credible, fact-based explanation for why the polls seemed to indicate a Clinton victory, but the election instead produced President Trump, wrote Brad Fay, an executive with Engagement Labs, in the Huffington Post. Fay notes that pollsters were not all wrong, as Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes. But I do believe it was possible to show that the possibility of a Trump victory was rising more rapidly in the final week than opinion pollsand related prediction modelsshowed.

Fay said his firms behavior-tracking model found what many voters and analysts have suspected, that Comeys October surprise was the tipping point that turned voter sentiment away from Clintonbecause people inclined to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt lost their enthusiasm, just as Comeys announcement buoyed Trump voters.

We are using a survey to measure behavior rather than opinion data, Fay explained. Although it is not our main line of business, every four years since 2008, we have added a few special questions to pick up the daily conversation about presidential candidates during the General Election campaign. Only after Election Day last year did we go back to see what the data showed, and it was startling. The first thing to know is that people were talking very negatively about both Trump and Clinton, in contrast to the mostly positive conversations we see for products and brands.

While both candidates were always firmly in negative territory, Clinton nevertheless enjoyed a persistent lead over Trump that opened up after the first debate, he said. Both candidates experienced significant drops in the immediate aftermath of the infamous audio recording of Billy Bush and Donald Trump [boasting of sexual assaults], although Clinton still had the advantage.

But then came Comeys unprecedented interference in the election, which registered on a much deeper level than the political polls were probing, Fay said.

Immediately afterward, there was a 17-point drop in net sentiment for Clinton, and an 11-point rise for Trump, enough for the two candidates to switch places in the rankings, with Clinton in more negative territory than Trump, he said. At a time when opinion polling showed perhaps a 2-point decline in the margin for Clinton, this conversation data suggests a 28-point change in the word of mouth standings. The change in word of mouth favorability metric was stunning, and much greater than the traditional opinion polling revealed.

Based on this finding, it is our conclusion that the Comey letter, 11 days before the election, was the precipitating event behind Clintons loss, despite the letter being effectively retracted less than a week later, Fay continued. In such a close election, there may have been dozens of factors whose absence would have reversed the outcome, such as the influence campaign of the Russian government as detailed by U.S. intelligence services. But the sudden change in the political conversation after the Comey letter suggests it was the single, most indispensable factor in the surprise election result.

His analysis noted that traditional polling does not take into account how people often react en masse: behavior predicts behavior, the invisible offline conversation matters, and humans are a herding species.

Its not that traditional political polls arent to be trusted, but rather that they expect people to act more rationally than is the case in reality; in other words, they put too much stock in believing what those polled say and too little stock in tracing what those polled may do.

Political consultants and commercial marketers alike have relied on a model that presumes voters and consumers act according to rational, individual choices that they can express and explain, Fay said. What we are learning is that emotion and peer influence play much bigger roles in influencing behavior than previously understood.

Fays takeaway is not just that the FBI directors interference single-handedly tipped the election away from Clinton and to Trump, but also that if you experienced that announcement as a gut-punch moment, you werent alone and your political instincts were correct.

Editors note: Mother Jones Kevin Drum wrote a more condensed report on this analysis on March 8.

Steven Rosenfeld covers national political issues for AlterNet, including Americas democracy and voting rights.

IMAGE:FBI Director James Comey testifies before a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on the Oversight of the State Department in Washington U.S. July 7, 2016. REUTERS/Gary Cameron

Visit link:
How James Comey's 'October Surprise' Doomed Hillary Clinton's Candidacy - The National Memo (blog)

Study: Hillary Clinton ran one of the worst campaigns in years – Fox News

A new study by the Wesleyan Media Project has found that the 2016 presidential campaign run by Hillary Clinton is without a doubt one of the worst-run political operationsin years.

Interestingly, the directors of the study disputethe argument that advertising doesnt matter in elections. Clintons failure to advertise in certain key states, they argue, wasthe biggest reason for her defeat byDonald Trump.

The study also backs the view thatClintons focus on identity politics and emphasis on condemning her oppositioncontributed to a campaign message devoid of substance with no clear message on policy.

Published inThe Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics, the studyfoundthat one candidate in particular, Hillary Clinton, almost ignored discussions of policy. The study states the lack of advertising effectiveness may owe to the unusual nature of the presidential campaign with one nonconventional candidate and the other using an unconventional message strategy.

Clinton, who was widely predicted to win by the mainstream media, sufferedunexpected losses in states where she failed to air ads until the final week before the polls. In contrast, Trump advertised in these states (Wisconsin and Michigan) forweeks before he won.

Click for more from Heat Street.

Read the original:
Study: Hillary Clinton ran one of the worst campaigns in years - Fox News

Hillary Clinton Was Cursed to Fail by Siberian Mummy – Observer

Rethinking her loss in the presidential race as a mere setback after her long walks in the woods and lots of sleep, Hillary Clinton bravely stated recently that she was ready to get back up and keep going.

But whilespeaking ofgirl power in the U.S. in the 21st century last Tuesday, Clinton likely didnt suspect she was fighting a more powerful obstacle: acurse by the lady-shaman of Siberia, with whom she had the misfortune of crossing pathsabout 20 years ago.

Afuzzy photograph of Clinton by the mummy of the Princess of Ukok is one of the most revered exhibits atthe City Museum of Novosibirsk, in the capital of Siberia.

Will heracquaintance with the Princess bestowacurse on Hillary tonight? askedone headlineonelection day. (The Princess did not like Clintonand Clinton lost! avictorious readerremarked the next day, in the comments section beneaththe article.)

The remains of the immaculately dressed 20-something princess, preserved for several millennia in the Siberian permafrosta natural freezerwere discovered in 1993 by Novosibirsk scientist Natalia Polosmak during an archaeological expedition, The Siberian Timesreported in 2012. Six saddled and bridled horses, her spiritual escort to the next world, were buried around hera symbol of her evident status as a healer or a holy woman.

Ameal of sheep and horse meat was placed by her side, as well as ornaments of felt, wood, bronze and goldand a small container ofcannabis.

This discovery,in the middle of theUkok Plateauthe holiest place of the native people of the Altai Mountains, direct relatives of Native Americanshas beencalled one of the most important archaeological momentsof the modern era.

Even today, only a chopper can deliver one to this unreachableplace.

Both of the ancient girls armsfrom shoulders to wristswere covered with exquisite, modern tattoos. It is a phenomenal level of tattoo art. Incredible, Dr. Polosmak, who found the mummy, said. The tattoos on the left shoulder of the princess show a fantastical mythological animal: a deer with a griffons beak and a Capricorns antlers.

Her head was completely shaven and she wore a horse hair wig. She died over 2,500 years ago.

She was called Princess by the media. We just call her Devochka, meaning Girl,' explainedIrina Salnikova, head of the Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences Museum of Archaeology and Ethnography.

Herbrain andinternal organs had been removed, so it was not possible to determine the cause of death. The Princess of Ukok was not related to any of the Asian races, scientists areconvincednor was sherelated to the present day inhabitants of Altai. She had a European appearance and blond hair before shaving her head.

Local shamans declared that the mummy belonged to the Altai Princess Ochi-Bala or White Lady of Ak-Kadynthe progenitor of the Altai people, the keeper of peace, who stood guard, preventing evil from penetrating our world.

Leave her in peace, rebury her inthe same spot, or there would be dire consequencesher ire and curse, for anybody who would cross her paththe shamans warned.

From day one, many Altai locals were alarmed by the removal of the ancient girls remains from thesacred burial moundsknown as kurgansregardless of the value to science of the discovery.In a land where the sway of shamans still holds, they believed that the princess removal would immediately lead to consequences.

Locals insisted the excavation disrupted her protective mission and the revenge she would inflict would reachglobally.

Archaeologists confirmed that as soon as the mummy was found, there wasthundereven there wasnt a cloud in the sky above. When the remains were removed, anearthquake began.

Some say the curse of the mummy caused the crash of a chopper carrying her remains out of Altai. Then, in Novosibirsk, her bodypreserved so well for so longsuddenly beganto decompose. The mummy had been stored in a freezer used to preserve cheese and fungi began growing on the flesh, it was claimed.

The princess remains had to be taken to Moscow and to be treated by the same scientists whotook such great care of the body of Vladimir Lenin, founder of the Soviet state.

After the body was brought to Novosibirsk (some 400 miles from the burial site), the constitutional crisis of 1993 began in Moscow. Ordered byRussian President Yeltsin, Russian tanks shelled Russian Parliament.

Soon after, economic disaster followed.

Even the war in Chechnya that began in 1995 was blamed on the Princess of Ukok.

Back in Altai, many ills had been explained by the princesss removal: forest fires, high winds, illness, suicides and an upsurge in earthquakes in the region,The Siberian Timesreported.

In November 1997, first lady Hillary Clinton visited Russia during her solo Human Rights Tour. One of her stops was in thecity of Novosibirsk.

On November 16, while on her trip, Clintonwas lured into the most dangerous trap: to meet face-to-face with the scientific sensation, the Princess of Ukok.

At the History and Archeology Institute of Novosibirsk Akademgorodok, in the company of archeologists Vyacheslav Molodin and Natalia Polosmak, the first lady observed the remains of the Princesson exhibit just for Clinton herself.

Was it a trap deliberately set by the Russian Secret Service?

Clinton was greeted by the local governor, sharedvodka and tea with him, and then paid a visit to atraditional Siberian familythe Vdovins. Father Vdovin was an engineer and mother Vdovin was anEnglish teacher at the local school, NGS Newsreported.

Clintons life, as well as the lives of those she met whilethere, dramatically changed soon after.

The governor lost his post two years later and died, while the Vdovin family split and moved to Canada.

In January, 1998, exactly two month after Clintons visit to the mummy of the Siberian Princess of Ukok, the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke and the course of U.S. history was changed forever.

And, most importantly, Hillary Clintons goals became ever more elusiveno matter how hard she workedto reach them.

Go here to see the original:
Hillary Clinton Was Cursed to Fail by Siberian Mummy - Observer

Nancy Pelosi says she would have retired if Hillary Clinton won – CNN

Story highlights

"If Hillary had won, I was ready to go home," Pelosi said after her interview at The Monitor Breakfast, hosted by the Christian Science Monitor, in Washington. "It was really shocking that someone like Donald Trump would be President of the United States. We yearn for the day of a Mitt Romney or a George Bush or someone. But anyway, that motivated me to stay now."

Pelosi, who has led the House Democrats since 2003, said she was staying to protect the Affordable Care Act -- a signature item dubbed "Obamacare" but one she was heavily decisive in crafting eight years ago as then-House speaker.

Pelosi faced a surprisingly tough re-election battle to head House Democrats in November, just weeks after Trump won the White House. As the party did some soul-searching, a group led by Rep. Tim Ryan, an Ohio Democrat, said it wanted a new direction.

Pelosi would not say Friday whether she would seek to run the House Democrats again in 2018, saying she takes everything now "day to day."

Read the rest here:
Nancy Pelosi says she would have retired if Hillary Clinton won - CNN

It Wasn’t Sexism That Caused Concern Over Hillary Clinton’s Emails – Observer

In an article for the Women section of Huffington Post, writer Emma Gray asks Can We Finally Admit It Was Always About Sexism, Never Emails? She was talking, of course, about former presidential candidate Hillary Clintons use of a private email server to conduct government business while she was secretary of state.

Grays evidence of sexism being the reason for the intense scrutiny of Clintons emails was the fact that Vice President Mike Pence also used a private email account to conduct official businessan account that was hacked in 2016yet Pence has not received anywhere near the amount of scorn that Clinton did. Pence is a man, and Clinton is a woman. Therefore, sexism!

A few paragraphs into Grays piece, she acknowledges that these two incidents were not exactly the same and links to a Washington Postpiece explainingthe differences, but then proceeds to ignore all of themexcept mentioning that the State Department explicitly discourages the use of personal email accounts.

Gray even cites some of President Donald Trumps advisers use of email accounts through a private Republican National Committee system as further evidence that Clinton was treated differently. At no point does Gray offer evidence that it was Clintons gender that caused the disparate treatment. Indeed, she mentions Kellyanne Conway as one of the Trump advisers who used an RNC account. It seems a more believable claim forthe differing treatments would be Republican vs. Democrat, though that would be difficult considering the political slant of most newsrooms.

But the comparison to Pence was even more strained, since the Washington Post explainer Gray links to goes into great detail about how Clintons email scheme was different. First and foremost, its legal in Indiana for government officials to use private emails to conduct official business. Its not illegal for State Department employees to do so, but its strongly advised against. Clinton herself sent staff an email saying not to use personal email for day-to-day business, even as she used exclusively a personal server to conduct business.

The Posts Amber Phillips wrote that Pence may have needed a private account since its illegal in Indiana for a government official to use her or his official account for political business.

Pence alsoaccording to Penceis preserving his emails consistent with Indiana law. Clinton, by contrast, destroyed some 30,000 emails she and her staff deemed personal, even though thousands of recovered emails revealed work-related content.

Further, as Phillips notes, the FBI launched an investigation into Clintons emails and her mishandling of classified information. No investigation has been opened into Pences emails. FBI Director James Comey spoke at length of Clintons extremely careless treatment of classified information, but ultimately declined to prosecute her, citing a nonexistent intent provision of federal law. In the end, Comey made it clear that Clintons use of a private email server was borderline incompetent, but that same incompetence got her off the hook.

Clinton also lied repeatedly after her personal server was discovered. She claimed she used the server for convenience and so shed only have to carry one device for my work and for my personal e-mails instead of two. Clinton would go on to admit to having a Blackberry, an iPad and an iPhone. She also claimed that no classified information was sent over her private server, but FBI investigators found 110 emails that contained classified information when they were sent or received.

So far, Pence doesnt appear to have lied about his emails, while Clinton lied repeatedly.

Theres also the glaringly obvious difference that the secretary of state would have a lot more sensitive emails than the governor of Indiana.

If Pence is discovered to be using a private email to conduct official government business while vice president, things will certainly be different. He would then have been putting our national security at risk, which is what Clintons server did. Though Comey said it was possible that hostile actors gained access to Clintons private server, no such hack has been proven. Pences email account was hacked, which prompted him to close it and open a new AOL account (AOL? Seriously?).

The bottom line is that the situations are completely different, and thatnot sexismis why they have been treated differently. Even though the situations are not the same, it was still dumb for Pence and other Republicans to criticize Clinton for using private email accounts while they used one themselves. Even the appearance of hypocrisy should have been avoided.

Go here to see the original:
It Wasn't Sexism That Caused Concern Over Hillary Clinton's Emails - Observer