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Hillary Clinton's image is worsethan at any point since 2008. That's the big takeaway from anew CNN/Opinion Research poll released late Monday. And it's true; 44 percent now have an unfavorable opinion of her -- the highestthat has been since June 2008, shortly after Clinton conceded the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama.

The new poll also has the distinction of having come just as Clinton's use of a private e-mail account during her time as secretary of state is at issue. Ipso facto, her e-mail controversy isthe cause of her flagging numbers, right?

Wrong.

While these two events are temporally aligned, there is little reason to believe the e-mails have really moved numbers that much. Not only is the change from CNN's polling not statistically significant from two polls last year, it's also part of a long-term trend. Clinton's numbers have been declining for some time, and the shift in the latest poll is very much in line with what we would expect.

Here's howthe steady progression looks:

The second number that people focused on in the new poll is the "honest and trustworthy" number. While 56 percent of people described Clinton thusly one year ago, it's down to 50 percent today.

A casualty of her e-mail problems? Perhaps. But that doesn't really explain why the percentage of people who say they would be proud to have her as president has risen over the same span. While it was 50 percent in March 2014, it's 57 percent today.

So while people see Clinton as less honest and trustworthy today, they also say they would be prouder to have her as president. Got all that?

We've been arguing for a while now on this blog that Clinton's numbers would continue to fall off their secretary of state highs. It was unsustainable for a politician who was so polarizing as a first lady and senator to continue to be so popular as she re-entered the political arena. Half the country was bound to love her, and half was bound to despise her.

Her e-mails might wind up expediting that process, but it was going to happen one way or another.

See the article here:
Hillary Clinton is increasingly unpopular. Its not because of her e-mails.

Hillary Clinton's image is worsethan at any point since 2008. That's the big takeaway from anew CNN/Opinion Research poll released late Monday. And it's true; 44 percent now have an unfavorable opinion of her -- the highestthat has been since June 2008, shortly after Clinton conceded the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama.

The new poll also has the distinction of having come just as Clinton's use of a private e-mail account during her time as secretary of state is at issue. Ipso facto, her e-mail controversy isthe cause of her flagging numbers, right?

Wrong.

While these two events are temporally aligned, there is little reason to believe the e-mails have really moved numbers that much. Not only is the change from CNN's polling not statistically significant from two polls last year, it's also part of a long-term trend. Clinton's numbers have been declining for some time, and the shift in the latest poll is very much in line with what we would expect.

Here's howthe steady progression looks:

The second number that people focused on in the new poll is the "honest and trustworthy" number. While 56 percent of people described Clinton thusly one year ago, it's down to 50 percent today.

A casualty of her e-mail problems? Perhaps. But that doesn't really explain why the percentage of people who say they would be proud to have her as president has risen over the same span. While it was 50 percent in March 2014, it's 57 percent today.

So while people see Clinton as less honest and trustworthy today, they also say they would be prouder to have her as president. Got all that?

We've been arguing for a while now on this blog that Clinton's numbers would continue to fall off their secretary of state highs. It was unsustainable for a politician who was so polarizing as a first lady and senator to continue to be so popular as she re-entered the political arena. Half the country was bound to love her, and half was bound to despise her.

Her e-mails might wind up expediting that process, but it was going to happen one way or another.

See the article here:
The Fix: Hillary Clinton is increasingly unpopular. Its not because of her e-mails.

NEW YORK Hillary Rodham Clinton made no mention of her forthcoming presidential campaign, or her recent e-mail controversy, as she accepted an award here Monday for her work helping to ease the decades-long sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland.

Wearing green in honor of St. Patricks Day on Tuesday, Clinton said she accepted the Irish America magazine lifetime achievement award on behalf of all the remarkable women that I met and admired in Northern Ireland as first lady.

Magazine editor Patricia Harty said Clinton was honored for her role in helping to broker the Good Friday agreement during the administration of her husband, Bill Clinton.

The event underscored Hillary Clintons long history with Northern Ireland, which figured prominently in her time as first lady in the 1990s and was part of her last overseas visit as secretary of state. She faced attacks during the 2008 campaign after saying she helped bring peace to Northern Ireland, a claim she avoided making Monday.

Amid the Guinness toasts at lunchtime and jokes about the number of potential U.S. ambassadors to Ireland in the crowd, Clinton took a serious tone as she recalled a trip to Belfast in 1995, when she stood with her husband to light Christmas lights. The episode was part of a process that would eventually lead to a peace accord in 1998.

They simply would not take no for answer, Clinton said of women who pushed male leaders to make and keep the Good Friday accord that Bill Clinton counts as a signature achievement of his presidency.

Hillary Clinton returned often to Northern Ireland, including her final overseas trip as secretary of state, in December 2012. She had planned further trips but canceled them after falling and hitting her head after returning from Dublin and Belfast.

Clinton played no direct role in fostering the 1998 peace deal but is credited with helping solidify support for the reconciliation effort. Her work bringing together women from both sides of the conflict served as a foundation for Clintons later work as secretary of state to include women in political and peace discussions.

Clinton did not go into the particulars of her involvement Monday, while praising the roles played by others.

Bill Clinton bucked domestic political opposition to extend an invitation, and a U.S. visa, to Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, Hillary Clinton said. Adams sat across from Clinton at the head table Monday in a glittering ballroom along Central Park West.

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Hillary Clinton garners award for role in easing the Northern Ireland conflict

ABC's Jonathan Karl made an insightful point on Twitter on Monday morning: Hillary Clinton might end up arguing her case before Congress on more occasions than she argues her case in a primary debate.

To understate it pretty dramatically, that is not ideal for Clinton. But it also depends on what you mean by "debate."

Karl's point is twofold: The first is that it's not clear if or when there will be any official Democratic primary debates -- or, at least, if or when there will be any with a large audience. If there are no strong opponents in the field, few networks (cable or broadcast) will be terribly eager to preempt existing programming to show them. In an age of YouTube and online streaming, that's not as big a deal, since any salient points made by Clinton or her opponent(s) could be shared online. But it also mightnot really lend the air of gravitas that even a candidate as well-positioned as Hillary Clinton would like to have.

Clinton will almost certainly be slotted at least once and perhaps two or three times to speak to Congress, in a much more hostile environment. Last week, Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), chairman of the House Benghazi commission, said that he planned to call Clinton to testify before his group, as she did in January of 2013. That would also be a debate, but one in which her opponent is also the moderator -- an unenviable position to put it mildly. Gowdy thinks two appearances might be in order.

Clinton may also be subpoenaed by the House Oversight Committee. The chairman of that body, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), plans to investigate Clinton's handling of her e-mail while she was Secretary of State. Debate No. 3.

Meanwhile, Clinton is already engaged in a running debate with her longtime foe: The media. While there is a vocal group on the right that believes the media to be overly solicitous to Clinton, that's pretty clearly not the view of the (likely) candidate. This has been written about ad nauseam, including in an extensive history published last year at Politico. Clinton railed against media bias as the 2008 primary slipped from her grasp; in May of that year former president Bill Clinton called it "the most slanted press coverage in American history."

While questions about Clinton's use of e-mail during her time at the State Department mightnot be a dealbreaker for voters, Clinton held her first press conference as a pseudo-candidate to answer (or, perhaps more accurately, not answer) questions from the press, in much the same way that she'd be forced to rebut questions from an opponent during a televised debate.

Last month, we wondered if Clinton would be radio silent until the general election kicked off, with no debates lined up. Now, an even worse prospect for her: Her only outlets to make points will be ones controlled by groups that either explicitly oppose her or are more interested in uncovering the truth than protecting her party's electoral success. And the fact that Clinton might have a pass to the Democratic nomination will make these battles even more pitched.

They mightnot be the debate opponents Clinton wanted. But it seems likely that these de facto debates will end up being pretty interesting.

Philip Bump writes about politics for The Fix. He is based in New York City.

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The Fix: Hillary Clintons debate opponents are set: Trey Gowdy, the GOP House and the media

Clinton gave an impassioned speech Monday in New York about her role in the 1990s Irish Peace Process, highlighting the importance of women in efforts stop fighting between Catholics and Protestants in Ireland. Clinton's exclusive use of a private email server -- a story that has shrouded the former secretary of state for the last two weeks -- went unmentioned at the jovial event where guests toasted with pints of Guinness.

Clinton sat at the event's head table along with John Fitzpatrick, founder of Fitzpatrick Hotel Group, and Gerry Adams, president of Ireland's Sinn Fin political party.

Women "contributed to the demand for the end to violence. They simply would not take no for answer," Clinton said of the Good Friday Agreement that started to end The Troubles between Catholics and Protestants. "I have seen this in many places around the country where women move from being victims to agents of change. But I have never seen it more clearly, most resolutely, than I saw in Northern Ireland."

RELATED: House may subpoena Clinton emails

As president, Bill Clinton spearheaded efforts to end religious divisions that claimed thousands of Irish lives in the 1990s. Then-first lady Hillary Clinton helped in the peace process, primarily by bringing women together and making them part of the peace accords.

In a historic moment, both Clintons stood in Belfast on Nov. 30, 1995 to light the city's Christmas tree. The moment was symbolic in the Irish peace process and capped off a trip that many Irish Americans remember as the highlight of Clintons presidency.

Hillary Clinton said Monday that lessons from the peace process still guide her today.

"There is still work to be done, but that remains a crucial lesson," Clinton said. "You cannot bring peace and security to people just by signing an agreement. In fact, most peace agreements don't last."

Some have questioned how big a role Clinton actually played in bringing peace to Ireland. The Washington Post Fact Checker wrote in 2008 that Clinton "seems to be overstating her significance as a catalyst in the Northern Ireland peace process, which was more symbolic than substantive," but that she did play "a helpful role at the margins."

Clinton is notably not Irish -- her family is of English, Scottish, French, and Welsh descent -- but she was inducted into the Hall of Fame because of her role in the peace process.

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Hillary Clinton spotlights Irish history