Election 2016: Hillary Clinton Isn't The Democrats' Only Candidate
WASHINGTON -- It is a truth universally acknowledged that while the Republicans have too many candidates for 2016, the Democrats have too few. If Hillary Clinton doesn't run or her presidential campaign implodes, the thinking goes, her party has no bench, no backup, no Plan B.
The list of Democrats who have publicly suggested they might run is indeed skimpy.But its misleading to compare the depth of the two parties simply by counting the number of self-declared possible candidates. Every Republican who ever looked in the mirror and saw a president is hinting at a run, hoping to generate press, test the reaction and even begin to build momentum. For GOP-ers, there's no downside to being talked about as a potential candidate. But not many A-list Democrats are mounting the same kind of PR campaign.
Several Democratic strategists, pollsters and party insiders interviewed for this article were eager to refute the idea that the party has no bench, and to suggest names of pols who could be viable 2016 candidates. But they didnt want their own names attached to this article and refused to be quoted on the record. No one wants to be seen as encouraging someone to run against Clinton.
That same fear appears to be keeping potential candidates quiet as well. Very few in Democratic circles are willing to alienate the Clintons. The couple has built a massive political operation. They command the loyalty of hundreds of donors and bundlers. An endorsement from the Clinton family can tip the scales for a candidate. And the Clintons are known to hold grudges. Bill Clinton remainedangry for years that Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy backed Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in 2008.
The Democrats do have real challenges in 2016 -- and perhaps even further ahead. They lost a number of governor races in 2010 and 2014 that are typically jumping-off points for presidential candidates. The party's losses went all the way down to the local level, depleting the ranks for candidate development for years to come. That so many who could run are -- so far -- sitting this one out means that potential 2020 or 2024 candidates and staffers arent getting the experience they need to build strong campaigns in the future.
Still, the party's ranks aren't as thin as it seems at first look.
There are three Democrats publicly toying with a run: Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb. Only Webb, who is more moderate than Clinton, has launched an exploratory committee. OMalley hired staff for his PAC at the end of the year, but has delayed making an actual announcement. And Sanders hasnt made clear whether hes actually running or just enjoying the attention that comes with suggesting he might.
All three have liabilities. Sanders is a self-described socialist, so there's essentially no chance that he could win a national election, or even the primary. Webb served only one term in the Senate and retired from office in 2012. Against a field of current Republican officeholders (or a two-term governor like Jeb Bush), he could look inexperienced. And OMalley, who served two terms as governor and proved he could fund-raise as the head of the Democratic Governors Association, would face criticism for the problems in his state -- like the unemployment rate -- as he leaves office.
But the Democrats have a long time to find a Clinton alternative, if they need one. With all the bustle right now of Republicans getting ready to run, it may seem as though February is the deadline to start a campaign. In fact, Mitt Romney didnt announce his 2012 exploratory committee until April of 2011. That October, donors and GOP insiders were still trying to get New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to jump in.
It's easier for a candidate with high name recognition to start late. Vice President Joe Biden, who has already run two presidential campaigns, has made clear that as long as Clinton is running, hes out of the game. But if circumstances changed, he would be able to quickly pull together a team, and he's already known by the voters, especially in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. But Biden is vulnerable: He's prone to gaffes, 72 years old, and tied even more closely than Hillary Clinton to the polarizing Obama administration.
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Election 2016: Hillary Clinton Isn't The Democrats' Only Candidate