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Democrats see rising populist sentiment. But can it shake Hillary Clinton?

Last Wednesday, in a coffeehouse in downtown Des Moines, a group of progressive activists launched an effort they hope will change the 2016 presidential campaign and in the process upend the Democratic Party.

The gathering in Iowa, organized by MoveOn.org and backed by Democracy for America, was the opening of a grass-roots push to draft Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to run for president. Its broader effect was to escalate the ongoing debate among Democrats about the partys values, its message, its real constituencies and, most of all, how to win elections in the post-Obama era.

That there is such a debate over the direction of the Democratic Party is without question, and the differences have become louder in the wake of the drubbing the Democrats suffered in the midterm elections.

What is in question is the degree to which the rising populist movement on the left can materially shape the partys future. More specifically, absent some sign from Warren that she is going to run, can these Democrats successfully pressure Hillary Rodham Clinton, the partys dominant, prospective presidential candidate, to adopt much of their agenda?

To those who argue that the ideological splits within the party are overstated or mostly stylistic, the effort to draft Warren is a misguided enterprise. There really isnt a huge division in the party, said former Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell (D). ... I dont think its anything like the tea party and the Republicans.

Rendell, who two years ago criticized President Obamas campaign for attacking Mitt Romney over his business record at Bain Capital, said he believed most Democrats shared Warrens opposition to a provision favorable to Wall Street in the recently passed spending bill that she attacked on the Senate floor.

Those trying to encourage Warren to run in 2016 argue a different case. Anna Galland, executive director of MoveOn.Org Civic Action, said there are important policy differences that need to be aired before Democrats pick their 2016 nominee.

She cited issues such as how the party should address income inequality, who populates positions of power in the executive branch a cause taken up by Warren when she opposed Obamas nomination of investment banker Antonio Weiss as treasury undersecretary and whether it is even possible for Democrats to have a discussion about expanding, rather than constraining, Social Security benefits. We are not debating style here, she said. We are debating substance.

The power of populism

Populist energy pulsates within the party to the point that Democrats cannot agree on whether it has become its dominant ideological strain. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who has championed a populist message as much as Warren, said: Its a good strong message, and its a message that shes carried very well, and its a message that a number of us have put out there for a number of years, and its catching on. ... I dont think its there yet.

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Democrats see rising populist sentiment. But can it shake Hillary Clinton?

Poll: Hillary Clinton has 49-point lead among Democrats, Republicans splintered

Hillary Clinton: The book reviews were so-so, but she remains overwhelming favorite for president of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.

A year-end ABC News/Washington Post poll gives ex-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton a massive 49-point lead among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters as their preference for president.

The poll comes after a year when the Washington, D.C., press corps sniped at Clinton over her speaking fees, reviews for her memoir Hard Choices were at best so-so and House Republicans rolled out a select committee on the 2012 Benghazi attacks and began using it to raise money.

Clinton has 63 percent support in the poll, compared to 14 percent for Vice President Joe Biden and 11 percent for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.Liberal groups, notably MoveOn.org, have launched a petition urging Warren to run (and seeking to enlarge their contributor lists).

Vice President Joe Biden. Hes distant second at 14 percent in presidential preferences of Democratic voters. Photo by Gettty Images

Other possibilities, including ex-Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, polled 5 percent between them.

Clinton started out the 2008 race as a seemingly prohibitive favorite.An October, 2007, ABC/Post poll gave her a 33-point lead 53 percent to 20 percent over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

The latest Post/ABC poll shows a Republican field splintered almost to the point of being sawdust.

The leader of the pack, at 20 percent, is 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney.Ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, openly exploring the contest, comes in at 10 percent.Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, garners 9 percent, followed by 2012 vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan at 8 percent.

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Poll: Hillary Clinton has 49-point lead among Democrats, Republicans splintered

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