Hillary Clinton silent on Keystone XL pipeline in conservation speech
Hillary Clinton spoke to the League of Conservation Voters Monday about the role of the U.S. in protecting the environment. The former secretary of state did...
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Hillary Clinton silent on Keystone XL pipeline in conservation speech - Video
Today on The Fix, Chris and I are exploring opposite sides of the same argument: Whether Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016.
Chris is pretty sure -- OK, very sure -- she will. Longtime political analyst Charlie Co0k is considerably less certain, pegging it at 60 to 70 percent. Similarly, I tend to think we always overestimate how likely candidates are to run. It's a big decision, and lots of things need to happen to make it a "go." Even people who really want to run often decide not to, for varying reasons.
What might those reasons be for Clinton? Below are five conceivable hurdles.Let me qualify, though, that I still think it's much more likely that she will run than not. But any one of these things could be a significant obstacle in her decision-making process.
1. The prospect of losing
It seems like we've already discussed Clinton's inevitability ad nauseam, but that inevitability really only applies to the Democratic primary. Her odds in the general election are headed toward being a 50/50 proposition -- and getting worse.
Although Clinton's approval rating reached upward of 60 to 65 percent as secretary of state, her favorable rating in the days since she stepped down has steadily fallen -- so much so that most recent polls show her under 50 percent (although still more positive than negative). That's pretty middling territory.
Here's polling of a Clinton match-up with Jeb Bush:
And Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.):
And Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.):
She leads all comers, but she's also better-known than all of them. She's also hovering around 50 percent and losing ground.
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Theres a real chance Hillary Clinton wont run for ...
Politicians and others in the chattering class refuse to allow the public a respite from campaigns and the speculation that accompanies them. Many ambitious Republicans and Democrats have been huddling with advisers and others to decide if and how to combine the bricks, mortar and gigabytes of a presidential campaign.
We may need spreadsheets to keep up with the entrants and their prospects. That nice senator from Ohio, Rob Portman, turned away at the first hurdle of the contest last week with a quiet announcement that it would be unwise to run for re-election to the U.S. Senate while seeking the Republican nomination for president in 2016. This seemed consistent with Portman's reputation as sensible. One of the frustrations for the public of a presidential campaign is that one of the attributes in a candidate for president is that he or she is smart enough to decline to make the race.
Maryland's bumptious Gov. Martin O'Malley was not on the ballot in November but the voters of his state dealt a brutal blow to his presidential hopes by electing a Republican to succeed him in the deep blue state. Larry Hogan was not given much chance of defeating Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, but the Republican wave swept Hogan into office by a comfortable 5 percent margin on Nov. 4. The result has been interpreted as a rebuke of O'Malley as a relentless tax-raiser for the past eight years. He now gives off the distinct odor of a loser.
O'Malley and any other Democratic challenger would face hefty, though not impossible, odds against Hillary Clinton should she make another bid for the Democratic nomination. Clinton seems less formidable as the year concludes than she did when it began. Her book tour interview blunders revealed Clinton as the master of the unforced error.
The perpetual victim confirmed that years of cosseted living have distorted her view of reality as most Americans live it. Clinton compounded that impression on a logarithmic scale in late October when the former secretary of state declared business does not create jobs. She spent several days trying to explain that. Clinton is evolving into the sort of candidate who is one question about the price of a loaf of bread away from catastrophe.
Jeb Bush was also making noises last week that suggested he is giving serious consideration to launching a bid for president. This is somewhere between mixed and dispiriting news. A fall 2016 contest between Clinton and Bush would mean that America's democracy has lost a lot of its dynamic nature, with the establishments of both parties wedded to the familiar and entrenched.
Both Bush and Clinton may find that a candidate well into his or her 60s is ill-suited for the age of the ubiquitous photo. Instagram, Facebook and Twitter are visual outlets. They emphasize age and both Bush and Clinton are often caught at what may be kindly called unflattering angles, which is starting to become anywhere there's a camera. Together they have, as the incomparable Joan Rivers used to say of Elizabeth Taylor at her most dissolute, "more chins than a Chinese phone book." They look soft, with their futures behind them.
While Clinton has been reluctant to talk much about issues as she continues a lucrative speaking tour of safe venues, Bush has shown he may possess an unexpected taste for taking his fight to some of the Republican party's most conservative elements over immigration and education.
The first tragedy of a Bush candidacy is that it would deny fellow Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio the chance to compete and pass the leadership of the party to a new generation. Rubio would have a hard time competing in his home state against Bush.
Rubio, who lags in the rear of the vast Republican field, is drawing attention as a thoughtful contender from the political commentariat. Last week, Rubio received a persuasive valentine from the National Journal's shrewd Josh Kraushaar, who described him as a smart candidate with the ability to unite warring Republican factions while running a campaign of uplift and optimism. It would be a shame to sacrifice those rare gifts for a sixth Bush family presidential campaign.
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Hillary Clinton Vs. Jeb Bush? Or Marco Rubio?
Hillary Clinton speaks at UCLA Luskin...
Lemon slices and a spread of hummus and crudite are just some of Hillary Clinton #39;s demands when she gives her $300000 guest lectures.Her requests were detailed in emails exchanged between...
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Jedediah Bila Contrasts Hillary Clinton With Sarah Palin 11/28/14
Hillary Clinton came under a storm of criticism this week when a #39;Freedom of Information Act #39; request from the Washington Post revealed the high level of pla...
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Jedediah Bila Contrasts Hillary Clinton With Sarah Palin 11/28/14 - Video