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By Perry Bacon Jr.

INDIANAOLA, Iowa- Some Democrats in Iowa and nationally want a very competitive Democratic primary, not one where Hillary Clinton has the overwhelming advantage. For now, that looks unlikely.

With her weekend trip to this early primary state, the ex-secretary of state is sounding more and more like a candidate. And much of the partys apparatus is already rallying around her while also sending an unsubtle signal to Vice-President Biden and other potential contenders that its Clintons turn.

At least 60 congressional Democrats have already said they would back Clinton if she ran, according to a tabulation by The Hill newspaper. Top officials in early primary states, like Attorney General Tom Miller of Iowa, who endorsed John Kerry in 2004 then Obama four years later, say they are strongly leaning towards supporting Clinton now.

There are many more chapters to be written in the amazing life of Hillary Clinton, Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin said at his annual steak fry on Sunday here, all but endorsing Clinton for president.

Key Democratic operatives are likely to join Clinton as well. Democrats say Jack Sullivan, who was a top Clinton aide in 2008 and at the State Department before serving as Vice President Joe Bidens national security adviser, is expected to work with Clinton, not Biden, in a 2016 campaign. Jeremy Bird, who was the national field director of Obamas 2012 campaign and is one of the partys smartest strategists in mobilizing voters, is already aligned with the group Ready for Hillary.

Biden, Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and ex-Virginia senator Jim Webb are all taking steps towards running in 2016. But the key question is whether they can amass the staff, political support and fundraising to wage a true contest against Clinton, as Obama did in 2008, or will face insurmountable odds from the start, as Biden did in his own campaign six years ago.

Tom Hockensmith, a county supervisor in Des Moines who backed Obama in 2008, said in an interview he wasnt sure who he supported in 2016, adding, I dont know enough about any of the candidates. But he wasnt sure he would ultimately have much of a choice.

I think shes going to be the candidate, he said of Clinton.

In 2006, Obama received a strong reception from Iowans at the annual steak fry, encouraging him to run for president. A few months later, as he launched his campaign, he was able to recruit some of the top operatives in the Democratic Party, match Clinton in fundraising and get endorsements from key figures like Miller.

Original post:
Can Anyone Really Challenge Hillary Clinton?

Hillary Clinton is obviously running for president, to the extent that, at this point, it's hardly revelatory to point that out. It's impressive she was able to deliver her speech at the Harkin Steak Fry this weekend in Iowa, given that she must have been winking melodramatically every time she made a joke about her non-candidacy.

"It's true," she said Sunday, and the crowd at the Steak Fry could probably be heard to audibly inhale -- will she say it? Then, I imagine, a big wink: "I am thinking about it!" Loud exhalations and oh-yous ring out over the crowd.

Even Ready For Hillary, the unaffiliated organization run by loyalists to Hillary and the Democratic Party, can barely pretend that she isn't yet officially running. Take this quote from USA Today, about the organization's planned November strategy meeting for its "900-member national finance council." Spokesman Seth Bringman teased, "What better time to come together and show our support right before this decision will be made?"

Well, if that decision were, theoretically, a "no," that would be an absolutely terrible time to fly everyone to New York and instruct them to start wringing money out of people. Bringman, like everyone else, is aware that it isn't a "no." He's winking, too.

But, what if? What if it were a no? What if all of this nudging and winking and campaigning really was this terribly weird way in which Hillary went about making decisions, running full bore just in case, and then pulling the plug?

The primary result would be that a lot of people would be hospitalized withcatatonia. Among those would be the Democratic candidates who either aren't bothering to thinkabout running -- Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), for example -- and the ones who are clearly thinking about running but can't get any oxygen.

If there were no Hillary 2016, America might have heard of Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), a good-looking guy who's in a band and so on. But as it is, no one has heard of him. Even as I write this, I have to double-check that his name isn't Marvin. (That's not true, but it's close.)

Then there's the whole Ready for Hillary crew. Political campaign professionals live uncomfortable, feast-or-famine lives, working for months on end until a campaign is over, and then often going unemployed until another campaign springs up. Ready for Hillary's key insight was, What if the campaign could start months and months earlier than normal? This hasn't been tried before in part because so few candidates could get enough people to give money to keep hundreds of people employed handing out stickers for two years. Clintoncan. It's a banquet table for consultants that stretches from now until November 2016 -- the sort of job security enjoyed only by tenured college professors and, well, politicians. But what if they're sitting there, nibbling on their 293rd course during this never-ending dinner and they suddenly hear, oh, the kitchen's closed. The answer: catatonia.

Democrats across the country probably wouldn't be hospitalized (not literally), but they wouldn't be happy. The most fun that any political junkie has had in the past decade was watching the 2008 Democratic primary. But Democrats were perfectly happy not to have to do that for two open primaries in a row. If Hillary didn't run, the scramble that ensued would be grotesque, a bloody spectacle worthy of the Caesar. It would be months of panicky how about this guy? speculation. Every failed name of the past 20 years would be mentioned non-ironically. ("Who has Mike Gravel's phone number?") Once Warren and Gillibrand recovered from their catatonia, they'd probably jump in, but what they'd be jumping into would be a complete mess.

Republicans, on the other hand, would dance a 600-hour long jig, just dancing and dancing and clinking champagne flutes. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus would be unavailable for appearances on the Sunday political shows for a while, unless producers wanted a guy who was just going to sit there giggling and clapping. There might be a surge of new entrants in the Republican primary, as well, since the odds of a Republican victory in 2016 would have just gone through the ceiling. (These things change, of course, but that would certainly be the initial reaction.)

Read more from the original source:
The Fix: Imagine a world where Hillary Clinton didnt run for president in 2016

Former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton and her husband, former US president Bill Clinton, at the Harkin steak fry in Indianola, Iowa. Photograph: Reuters/Jim Young

Hillary Clinton has sent another strong signal that she may run for the presidency in 2016 when she returned to the politically significant state of Iowa in the American midwest for the first time since she lost a caucus election there in her unsuccessful 2008 presidential run.

In her most political speech since resigning as secretary of state last year, Ms Clinton offered little new about whether she had decided to run in 2016, but her visit to Iowa intensifies expectation that she will.

Its true, the former New York senator told at a crowd of about 10,000 Democratic supporters, I am thinking about it. Among the crowd were thousands of supporters bedecked in Ready for Hillary paraphernalia, an independent group pushing her to run.

Accompanied by husband, former president Bill Clinton, she attended the last steak fry hosted by Iowas Democratic senator Tom Harkin on Sunday, as his retirement leaves a seat that Republicans believe they can win in their bid to regain control of the Senate.

Its been seven years and a lot has changed, she told the crowd in a state that delivered a damaging early hit to her 2008 campaign. Ms Clinton came third behind Barack Obama and John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, in Iowas Democratic caucus.

Iowa is the first state in the nation to vote in the presidential election year, generating intense national interest in this largely agricultural state.

Ms Clinton however focused on Novembers congressional midterm elections. She pushed the crowd to support Democrat Senate candidate Bruce Braley, who is battling Republican nominee Joni Ernst, and Staci Appel, who is hoping to become the first female congresswoman elected from Iowa if she wins in November.

Ms Clinton is leading the 2016 presidential polls, including in Iowa, and has mobilised stronger support than she did in the 2008 campaign.

The rest is here:
Hillary Clinton thinking about running for presidency in 2016

Indianola, Iowa Hillary Rodham Clinton's third-place finish in the 2008 Iowa caucuses seemed but a fading memory when the former secretary of state took the stage in front of roughly 10,000 loyal Democrats at outgoing Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin's annual fall fundraiser south of Des Moines.

Though Clinton is the favorite for the 2016 Democratic nomination should she run, she advised the audience and the media on Sunday that her focus was on the November midterm elections. Still, she left just enough hints that a second bid for president could come, and that it might begin in Iowa.

1. IT'S GREAT TO BE BACK IN IOWA.

After posing for photographs turning a grill full of red meat at Harkin's farewell "steak fry," Clinton stopped to say hello to the remaining reporters, after many had left.

Asked whether she was glad to be back in Iowa, where her 2008 campaign hit a costly bump, she said: "It's great, it's fabulous to be back. I love Iowa."

And then she launched into an anecdote she often told in Iowa at the outset of her 2008 campaign. "I first came to Iowa when I was about, I can't remember, I was either 9 or 10," she said. "And we were with my dad, and we went to Des Moines and we stayed at the Tall Corn Motel. I've had a great impression ever since."

2. SOME VOTERS ARE READY.

Clinton insisted the point of speaking at Harkin's event was to boost 2014 candidates. But she dropped hints of a potential 2016 candidacy into her speech to an audience packed with people wearing "Ready" stickers, symbols of the Ready for Hillary political action committee that is laying the groundwork for a potential campaign.

Clinton described her personal concerns first as an expectant grandmother. "And then of course, there's that other thing," she said, fueling a slow but steady rise in cheers from the crowd. "Well, it is true, I am thinking about it, but for today that is not why I'm here." The caveat prompted a corresponding moan of disappointment.

"Too many people only get excited about presidential campaigns," she said later. "Look, I get excited about presidential campaigns too." she said. Again, cheers erupted.

Continue reading here:
Hillary Clinton in Iowa: 5 takeaways from her visit

This article originally appeared on Slate.

INDIANOLA, Iowa -- Hillary Clinton opened her remarks at the 37th annual Harkin Steak Fry by talking about the imminent arrival of her daughter's first child and her possible presidential campaign. It was hard to tell which was more pregnant.

Clinton didn't mention her candidacy directly, but in her first visit to the state since her third-place showing in the 2008 caucuses, she made a succession of coy references. "Of course there's that other thing," she said after talking about how she and her husband were consumed with the prospect of their first grandchild. "Well it is true, I am thinking about it, but for today that is not why I'm here. I'm here for the steak." There were a few other nods and winks and Clinton concluded by saying, "Let's not let another seven years go by."

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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucus state, for the first time since she finished third there i...

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Clinton praised President Obama and rallied Democrats to turn out for the 2014 midterms during her first public event in Iowa since the 2008 pres...

The audience of 10,000 got the joke. As they filed out, I asked James Hanifen, a World War II veteran, if he thought, based on what he'd heard, that she was running for president. "It's obvious she is. I mean, unless you're really, really dumb."

The Clinton campaign has been conceived and everyone is just waiting around for the birth announcement. That makes it murky to assess the Clinton candidacy. You can hardly judge a couple's parenting skills before the baby arrives. Though that doesn't stop the criticisms. The conventional complaint among Democratic campaign veterans and strategists who are not in the Clinton camp is that she has not developed a message and a rationale for her candidacy. She's running on the fact that it's her turn. Inevitability is deadly for candidates.

That critique is wildly premature. Not only has the official campaign where she could articulate a vision not started, but even when it does, Clinton is a prohibitive front-runner of a kind we have not seen in this century, which means she has time to get her act together.

See more here:
The final days of the unofficial Hillary Clinton campaign