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TIME Politics 2016 Election Hillary Clinton Goes to Iowa Former U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, reacts during a conference at the Seminar "Mexico Siglo XXI" (Mexico XXI Century) organized by Telmex foundation, in Mexico City on Sept. 5, 2014. Edgard GarridoReuters This will be Clintons first visit to Iowa since she lost the caucuses in 2008

Sunday afternoon in Indianola, Iowa, is bound to be a spectacle. Former President Bill Clinton and his wife Hillary will be the keynote speakers at retiring Sen. Tom Harkins 37th and last steak fry. Some 5,000 peoplea third of the towns population of 15,000are expected to attend, including more than 200 journalists from around the world.

The former first ladys every handshake and utterance will surely be parsed for signs of whether shell run for President again in 2016. This will be Clintons first trip back to Iowa since her humiliating third-place loss in the caucuses in 2008, a setback that ultimately cost her the nomination. Just in case shes forgotten this painful fact, the Republican National Committee made a highlight reel of Clintons past failures in Iowa to remind her.

The event will surely look like a campaign. Ready for Hillary, her shadow grassroots campaign will be on hand to greet the former New York senator and Secretary of State. They have been encouraging Iowans to register for the event for months, and theyll have the Ready for Hillary bus there.

As she was when she last attended this event seven years ago, Clinton is heavily favored to win the caucuses. If the caucuses were held today shed garner 53% of the vote, according to a CNN/ORC poll of registered Iowa voters out Friday. That blows away the field: Vice President Joe Biden comes in a distant second with 15%, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has said repeatedly she wont run, gets 7%, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has 5%, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo 3%, Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley 2% and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick 1%.

And one of the biggest differences between 2007 and now is that at that Steak Fry, which is an annual fundraiser, then Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards were eagerly anticipated guests in attendance. Ultimately, Obama would win the caucuses and Edwards would come in second. This time, theres no rival in sight. Well, Sanders may show up (hes holding an event in Des Moines that night), but few believe hes a threat to Clinton the way Obama and Edwards were.

That said, many Iowans view Clintons candidacy with a grain of salt, and some will come to the Steak Fry to see how she behaves. She ran a decidedly non-retail campaign in 2008, visiting less than 60 of the 99 counties. Bill Clinton didnt contest Iowa in 1992 as his host, Harkin, was on the ballot and an easy shoo-in. And he didnt bother much with it during his reelection. Which means that Iowans feel like they dont truly know the Clintons they way they know other politicians whove come to pay homage to the fickle first voters. And theyll expector at least hope forsome signs of courtship from the Clintons.

Officially, Clinton isnt running for President. She said last week that shed make up her mind after Jan. 1 if shell enter the race. But that wont stop speculation from running rampant. Let the pseudo-shadow-non-campaigning begin.

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Hillary Clinton Goes to Iowa

DES MOINES Hillary Rodham Clinton returns to Iowa this weekend for the first time since her devastating loss in the 2008 presidential caucuses, arriving as the undeclared front-runner for the 2016 Democratic nomination but still trailed by criticisms about her first campaign here.

The former secretary of state and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, will be in Iowa for Sen. Tom Harkins annual steak fry on Sunday. But if the ostensible purpose of her visit is to pay tribute to Harkin (D-Iowa) who is retiring after 40 years of elective office in Washington she will not escape from the speculation that this is simply one more step toward a formal presidential campaign. At a minimum, it will mark her initial foray on the campaign trail for this falls midterm elections.

I dont expect her to talk about her future decisions, said Harkins wife, Ruth, who is a longtime Hillary Clinton friend and supporter. Theyre going to be announced next year. But this is a very significant moment for her to greet Iowa voters.

Clintons 2008 effort in Iowa was plagued by startup problems and affected by the overall dysfunction of her national campaign team. By the time she corrected her course, then-Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) had moved ahead of her on the ground.

But it was more than staff problems that hurt Clinton here in 2008. As a candidate, she often chafed at the demands of the caucus process, including the time required to court individual activists across the state. She disliked traveling too far from Des Moines and certain friendly hotels.

Added to that are questions raised by this summers book tour about whether her campaign instincts have dulled. Clintons time since leaving the Senate has been devoted to foreign policy discussions inside the administration, interaction with world leaders and more than a year of lucrative speechmaking as a private citizen rather than being in more regular contact with everyday Americans.

At this point, Clinton has no strong challenger in Iowa for her, a welcome contrast to eight years ago when she faced Obama and a well-entrenched John Edwards, the partys 2004 vice presidential nominee.

Nonetheless, she wont have Iowa totally to herself this weekend.

Sen. Bernard Sanders (I-Vt.), who is contemplating running for president, will appear at several events, while Vice President Biden, who was the featured speaker at last years Harkin steak fry, will be in the state next week. Gov. Martin OMalley (D-Md.) has been a frequent visitor here.

Still, she remains the dominant prospective candidate in her party. Anticipation of Clintons appearance (as well as her husbands), and that this is the last of Harkins 37 steak fry events, will draw a large crowd at a balloon field in Indianola on Sunday afternoon.

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Hillary Clinton returns to Iowa, trailed by criticisms about 2008 loss

Hillary Clinton returns to Iowa on Sunday for the first time in six years, but she'll do so without the same god-like political status she held at the peak of her popularity as secretary of state.

The former first lady and New York senator's poll numbers have come back down to earth after years in the stratosphere the result of renewed Republican attacks since she left the State Department and, in all likelihood, collateral damage from the unraveling of President Obama's foreign policy.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released this week found that Clinton's favorability was barely above water; 43 percent of respondents viewed her positively compared to 41 percent who held a negative view of her. That represents a sharp drop from less than two years ago, when 58 percent of registered voters viewed her positively just before she left the Obama administration.

Clinton does remain queen of the Democrats: A CNN poll released Friday of registered Democrats in Iowa found that 53 percent would support her for president, more than three times the level for any other potential candidate. But that finding could say as much about the lack of competition as it does about Clinton herself.

Vice President Joe Biden is the only other Democrat with a national following that is currently giving thought to a 2016 campaign.

Clinton's fall was easily predicted, of course. Her years as secretary of state shielded her from the rough-and-tumble of campaign politics, and even some of Obama's top political advisers have pushed her to stay on the sidelines as long as she could before jumping back into the fray.

Yet Clinton has clearly chosen a middle road. While she hasn't weighed in on every controversy or gone attacking Republican presidential hopefuls, she put herself back firmly in the public eye with a seemingly never-ending book tour this summer.

Now, she'll cross what is likely the last hurdle before becoming a candidate again by speaking at Sen. Tom Harkin's annual Steak Fry, a highly political fundraiser in the first voting state in 2016. Political observers will closely watch her talk for the outlines of a campaign stump speech, and she is expected to hit the road for Democratic candidates in the weeks leading up to the midterm elections.

Republicans will be watching, too, and they are welcoming Clinton back to Iowa by reminding her, in an email blast, of what happened last time she visited the Hawkeye State:

Hillary Clinton Returns To The Site Of Her Most Stinging Political Defeat"

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Hillary Clinton Returns to Iowa a Mere Mortal

Washington Hillary Clinton returns to Iowa this weekend. She (and husband Bill) will speak Sunday at the Harkin Steak Fry, Sen. Tom Harkins annual festival of Democratic politics and grilled protein. This years Steak Fry is the 37th , and last Senator Harkin is retiring. Its also the first time Clinton has returned to the Hawkeye State since losing the Iowa caucuses in January 2008.

Remember? It was a brutal start for Clintons presidential campaign. She finished third, behind Barack Obama and John Edwards. Yes, that John Edwards.

Will her Steak Fry speech serve as an unofficial campaign kickoff? Thats what much of the D.C. punditocracy believes. That doesnt mean shell be more forthcoming about her plans shes said she wont announce an official candidacy until early 2015. What it does mean is its about time she begins honing a stump speech intended to appeal to Democrats in Iowa and beyond. Anything less will be seen as a sign that maybe shes thinking about not running, after all.

I dont want to be in a position of piling it on. This is a decision she has to make, said Harkin on Friday, according to the Associated Press. She knows how much I care about her and Bill.

A 2016 Hillary campaign promises to have a different finish in Iowa than her 2008 version. Early polls show the former secretary of State way ahead both nationally and in-state. A CNN/ORC poll released Friday shows Clinton as the choice of 53 percent of Iowa Democratic voters. Fifteen percent would opt for Vice President Joe Biden, with seven percent going for Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

These numbers reflect national polls that show Clinton the overwhelming choice of Democrats. In terms of winning her partys candidacy, shes perhaps the most heavily favored nonincumbent presidential candidate in modern times.

But that hasnt stopped potential rivals from making their own Iowa travel plans. Vice President Joe Biden will show up next Wednesday. Hes scheduled to appear in Des Moines to kick off a We the People, We the Voters bus tour.

Then theres Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley. According to a report in The Daily Beast, hes dispatched 11 staffers paid by his OSay Can You See PAC to Iowa to work in various Democrats fall campaigns.

The staffers OMalley has placed will give him a head start if he chooses to run for president, writes the Beasts Ben Jacobs. They will be able to identify potential supporters far in advance, as well as build lists of volunteers key to the grassroots organizing necessary in the Iowa caucuses.

If he runs, OMalley will need all the help he can get to build name recognition. Right now the CNN/ORC poll shows him with two percent of the Iowa Democratic vote a whopping 51 points behind Clinton.

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Hillary Clinton returns to Iowa. Is that Joe Biden behind her?

Let's get one thing out of the way: Hillary Clinton is a massive favorite to win the Iowa caucuses -- and the Democratic presidential nomination -- in 2016. (If she runs, of course, which everyone now assumes she will.) Just in case you aren't hip to that reality, CNN and the Opinion Research Corporation released a poll on Friday that made it crystal clear; Clinton led the 2016 field in Iowa with 53 percent followed by Vice President Joe Biden at 15 percent. No one else even got into double digits.

So, when Clinton stops in Iowa for the first time in six years this Sunday -- she and her husband are headlining Sen. Tom Harkin's final Steak Fry -- she will be greeted like a hero. But, it's worth remembering Clinton's problems in Iowa in 2008 when analyzing the approach she takes to all of that adoration.

Clinton finished third in the 2008 Iowa caucuses -- John Edwards narrowly edged her out for second. There were lots and lots of reasons given for her struggles in the state up to and including:

* The Clinton machine wasn't strong in Iowa since Bill Clinton didn't seriously compete in the state in 1992 (native son Harkin made the race non-competitive) and was unchallenged for the Democratic nomination in 1996.

* Clinton was out of step -- particularly on the war in Iraq -- with the liberal activists that comprise the bulk of the caucus vote. Both Obama and Edwards were significantly more outspoken in their opposition to the war than Clinton.

* Clinton fundamentally misunderstood the Iowa electorate. She ran a Rose Garden campaign when Iowa voters wanted her to drop the big entourage and simply talk to them one on one.

It's that last criticism that may be most telling as it relates to 2016. Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani were the two most famous candidates in the 2008 race. Both came to Iowa wearing that fame -- cocooned off from average folks, defaulting to larger rallies rather than the hand to hand work that has, traditionally, been rewarded by Iowa voters.

Giuliani quickly realized Iowa wasn't for him, skipping the state to spend more time in New Hampshire. (Giuliani eventually scrapped that strategy too; making Florida his firewall. It became his Waterloo.) Clinton stayed; she had no choice since the frontrunner for the nomination can't pick and choose which states to seriously contest.

The exit poll conducted after Clinton's third place finish in Iowa speaks to the problem she had connecting with the electorate on any level other than celebrity-to-supplicant. One in five Iowa Democratic caucus-goers said that a candidate who "cares about people like me" was the most important characteristic in making their choice. Edwards got 44 percent among that group -- double Clinton's 22 percent. (Obama took 24 percent.) By contrast, among the 20 percent of caucus-goers who said a candidate with the "right experience" to be president was most important to them, Clinton lapped the competition by winning almost half of their votes.

The takeaway from the 2008 exit poll is this: No one doubted Clinton's competence. They doubted her compassion. She was always "Hillary Clinton" and never Hillary Clinton. It seems more than coincidental that when, in the runup to the New Hampshire primary, Clinton let more of her "real self" show, her polls numbers improved drastically.

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The Fix: Hillary Clinton is going to Iowa this weekend. How she acts will be telling.