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Today we're taking a look at a recent op-ed from Politico, penned by Russian studies scholar Leon Aron of AEI.

And the title asks a provocative question, "Could Putin launch another invasion?" Aron links the current political moment in Russia, big protests, struggling economy, and Putin's own thirst for power and popularity, with the factors that led to Russia's incursion into Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014. He lays out the possibility that Russia could make military moves yet again, potentially against Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, the three Baltic states that all happen to be members of both the European Union and NATO.

Some context: This has been quite a week for US/Russia relations. President Biden in an interview with ABC News agreed with an assertion that Vladimir Putin is a "killer," I think he called him "soulless," too. And Russia responded by recalling their ambassador to the United States. All this comes as the American intelligence community released a report this week claiming that Russia had launched yet another campaign in the 2020 election to undermine Biden.

So a logical question would be: What is Putin's next move? Could he wage yet another military campaign?

Now, as with many of the pieces that we look at, some points Aron makes are right on the money. Yes, Putin did gain a lot of popularity after the operation in Crimea, especially. And yes, NATO faces real issues; Turkey is barely an ally these days, countries are slow rolling in terms of spending cash that they're promised, the French are talking about strategic autonomy, and yes, Putin always seems to have a surprise or two up his sleeve. But we are completely not convinced by the argument that an invasion of the Balts may be on its way.

So let's take out the Red Pen.

First, Aron writes that Putin's interventions, especially in Ukraine "worked," driving a "Crimean consensus" that victory in war overshadows troubles at home.

Sure, the Crimea intervention "worked" for Putin. Until it didn't. Putin has had to downplay military involvement in Ukraine of late to avoid a backlash from a Russian public that cares primarily about domestic issues still, like pensions, for example. And let's not forget that getting involved in Libya, in Syria, even in Nagorno-Karabakh didn't yield any real popularity bump of note for Putin.

Next, Aron writes that "we tend to repeat what worked." That is, Putin reached for the military lever before when he faced trouble, so he might do so again.

Well, Putin's decision making doesn't occur in a vacuum. Every past intervention was driven by national interest and foreign policy goals. Does Putin care about Putin? Of course. But Putin can't be sure that cooking up a foreign war would help matters it home. In fact, it might actually make them worse.

Finally, Aron says that Putin may consider a "fast and victorious poke at NATO's eastern flank," targeting the Baltic states and breaking NATO.

An attack on the Balts may be fast or it may be victorious, but probably not both. And Putin knows this. Western leaders are conflicted about the alliance, but an assault on full-fledged NATO State and EU members is exactly the kind of provocation that could awaken it. Putin understands this. He hardly wants to bring the alliance together as it's eroding. Low-cost efforts to steadily undermine legitimacy and grabbing targets of opportunity when available, that is much more Putin's speed.

Putin certainly seems to want to be president for life and probably is going to end up running for a fifth term, though a lot can happen in three years. Military moves that diminish his popularity or lead to further widespread protest, never mind bring together his adversaries, that is a strong NYET for now tovarishchey.

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Immigration reform so divisive that even Democrats can't agree - GZERO Media

By Kevin Xavier Garcia-Galindo 24 (He/Him), Political Correspondent

On February 18th, Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey (D) and Representative Linda T. Snchez of California (D) unveiled the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021, an immigration reform bill modeled after the proposal made by President Biden.

In the words of the original White House press release concerning the bill which this current one was modeled on, The bill provides hardworking people who enrich our communities every day and who have lived here for years, in some cases for decades, an opportunity to earn citizenship.

The bill, if passed, would create an eight year path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who resided in this country as of January 1st, as well as an accelerated route for recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program to apply for green cards right away, giving them noncitizenship status with the ability to become full citizens in the future.

The DACA program, created in 2012, protects unauthorized immigrants brought to the U.S. as children from possible deportation. The program endured various attacks by the Trump administration, including a termination of the program which put the almost 700,000 DACA recipients in possible danger of deportation. However, the Supreme Court overruled that decision due to the arbitrary and capricious manner in which the Trump administration levied the order.

This bill, if passed, has the capability to increase many undocumented and DACA students chances of obtaining a post-secondary level education. Of the estimated 450,000 undocumented students currently attending college or university in the U.S., only about half of them are eligible for DACA. About nine in ten of those DACA recipients came to this country before the age of 12 (89%), as compared to about half (47%) of undocumened students not eligible for DACA. Altogether, all undocumented students represent about 2% of total college enrollment in the U.S., including here in North Carolina where DACA and undocumented students each make up an equal 1% of the student population, a rate only higher in California, Texas, Florida, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington.

DACA students will for the first time be able to become eligible noncitizens with an expedited path towards citizenship once they receive their green card. This will make them eligible, along with other criteria, for financial aid, as well as subsidized federal loans. Under North Carolina regulations, even DACA recipients are not eligible for instate tuition, although they are entitled to a NC drivers license, as well as state identification cards. Although many DACA and undocumented scholarships and grants exist in North Carolina, undocumented students applying to NC colleges such as Davidson College have to self-identify themselves as international students and thus largely depend on merit scholarships, high-interest loans, or working in or out of college in order to pay for their education.

These conditions have, for a long period of time, depressed the levels of undocumented students who obtain a post-secondary diploma. An estimated 100,000 undocumented students graduate every year from U.S. high schools, but due to the plethora of disadvantages they face including the always looming danger of deportationfew are able to attended college, and many leave prematurely or take constant breaks before getting their degree. Only about 5% to 10% of all undocumented students even pursue a college education to begin with. Programs like DACA have already showed the immense influence that they can have on educational outcomes of undocumented youth, like raising high school graduation rates by 15%, increasing school attendance of high-school-aged students by 3%, and increasing college enrollment among Hispanic women by 22%.

Dr. Bazo Vienrich, Assistant Professor of Sociology at Worcester University and previously a Visiting Professor at Davidson during the 2019-2020 academic year, researches how institutions and policies have impacted undocumented Latinx youths experiences with belonging and exclusion. While she thinks that this bill will ultimately help undocumented and DACA students, she worries about the possibility of education gaps for these students, like those who due to their immigration status have not considered college as an option and have not been tracked to go to college as high school students. Or those whose parents and other family members may remain undocumented or in liminal legal immigration statuses, which could lead some students to try to get as high of a paying job as possible after high school to financially help out at home instead of going to college.

Out of all 50 states, currently only 21 have a provision that offers undocumented students in-state tuition and sometimes financial aid. As she highlights, its important to still consider that while it will have a major positive impact on the lives of undocumented immigrants, the bill will not do away with the years of state-enforced legal violence and limited opportunities this group has experienced.

The bill also provides a considerable amount of help to international students in STEM Ph.D. programs to stay in the U.S. Just last year, the number of international students in the U.S. dropped for the first time in a decade according to a report by the Institute of International Education and the U.S. Department of State. Despite this, however, international students continue to make up around 5.5% of all students in higher education. This provision would help eliminate many of the obstacles that U.S. tech companies have had to face when it comes to hiring high-skilled international workers which have pushed many of them to open firms in other countries like Canada, where hiring immigrant workers is easier.

Although many higher education advocates would prefer this bill to be far more inclusive of the the greater international student population as only about 12% of international students are enrolled in doctoral programs, this provision alone could open the door for a greater magnitude of highly skilled international students, who already make up more than half of all doctoral degree holders in STEM.

While this bill has the potential to reverse many of the injustices of past administrations concerning immigration, the bill still has a long way to go until it can be passed in both the Senate and the House. It was not that long ago in 2013 that a similar but much less broader bill was able to pass the Democratic-led Senate but failed in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Even with Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress, getting this bill passed with the 60 votes necessary to overcome a likely filibuster will be an ordeal unless Democrats manage to convince more Republicans or are able to pass other smaller reform on immigration. As it currently stands, important republican Senators who have co-sponsored or voted for similar proposals in the past do not seem entirely convinced that right now is the best time to pass immigration reform due to the ongoing crisis at the border.As Senator Lindsey Graham (R) said in an interview with CNN, Were not going to do a comprehensive immigration bill[] I just dont see the politics of it. Its too out of control. Only time will tell if Biden is able to assuage the fears of the few precious congressmen he needs to pass the most ambitious immigration reform bill since Ronald Reagon.

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How Biden's Immigration Reform will affect Undocumented, DACA, and International Students - The Davidsonian

The U.S. House of Representatives expect to pass the Farm Modernization Workforce Act as soon as Thursday, March 18.

The produce industry has supported the legislation as a first step in securing a legal workforce.

While the bill also passed the House in the last Congress, it looks unlikely to pass the Senate, which didnt even take it up last Congress.

The Democrats now control the Senate, unlike last Congress, but most bills still need 60 votes to pass, which is something Robert Guenther, senior vice president of public policy for United Fresh Produce Association BB #:145458, calls an uphill battle.

I dont see all 50 Democrats or 10 Republicans go for it, he said in a virtual meeting with members March 16.

The legislation has some bipartisan support in the House, which he said will help in the Senate.

But it probably wont be enough.

United Fresh is asking produce industry members to sign a letter to House leaders, showing support for the bill.

Angela Bezon Tiwari, United Fresh Director, Grassroots & Political Action, said there are more than 400 signers with a goal of 500 before the vote. If it passes the House as expected, she said a similar letter will be crafted for Senate leadership.

The Biden administration made immigration reform a top priority of his presidency, and Congressional Democrats have rallied support for a broader bill, but so far, they havent gotten enough support from their party.

Instead, Democrats have advanced the farmworker bill and one to provide a path to citizenship for young immigrants brought to the U.S. as children, known as Dreamers.

Both bills, however, appear headed to the same defeat that caught previous attempts. The path to citizenship provision will be labeled amnesty by Republicans, which is abhorred by their voters, and thus, few Republicans will support it.

Republicans who have supported such legislation in the past have often lost primaries in the next election.

John Hollay, Senior Director, Government Relations for United Fresh, said hes optimistic that this time it could be different, as much progress has been made on the farmworker bill, even referring to it as his Super Bowl.

As a Kansas City Chiefs fan, it does seem like a Super Bowl analogy to me. One where my team loses 31-9 to a guy who always wins.

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Immigration reform no closer to reality despite the spotlight Produce Blue Book - Produce Blue Book

WASHINGTON Three of Utahs four U.S. House members are throwing their support behind the GOP plan put forward by U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar to address undocumented immigrants and illegal immigration.

The proposal, the GOP response to President Joe Bidens immigration reform plan, would create a means for undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States and potentially attain legal status, among other things. It comes amid a heightened national focus over illegal border crossings and an apparent surge in U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to the Pew Research Center.

I am proud to partner with you and my colleagues on meaningful and compassionate immigration reforms that keep families together, provide pathways for dreamers and give a voice to the voiceless, Rep. John Curtis of Provo said in a tweet.

U.S. Rep. Burgess Owens, who represents Utah's 4th District, speaks at a press conference outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, March 17, 2021, to tout an immigration reform plan crafted by U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar, a Florida Republican.

Salazars proposal puts a big focus on beefing up U.S. border security, according to a draft summary. But it would also give dreamers, younger undocumented immigrants brought illegally to their country by their parents, immediate legal status. That group has been a particular focus of the debate over immigration reform.

Moreover, her plan would allow undocumented immigrants who pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, stay employed and pay a fine to get work visas. It also creates a pathway to permanent resident status for them.

Immigration reform is a great opportunity for collaboration, and I believe in aspirational, pro-growth and inclusive proposals that will both secure and strengthen our country, Moore, the 1st District representative, said at the conference. Any bills considered by Congress should offer functional and compassionate solutions while protecting American jobs. I am proud to join with my colleagues to craft commonsense, workable reforms that streamline the guest worker visa process, strengthen our border security, support the American workforce and more.

In a statement to the Standard-Examiner later Wednesday, Owens, the 4th District representative, put a big focus on border security, a standard GOP call. But, as proposed in Salazars plan, hes also open to creating a means to allow at least some undocumented immigrants to remain in the country.

For too long, weve taken an all or nothing approach to immigration reform in this country, and for too long, we have gotten nothing, Owens said. It is time to think of solutions that are fair, dignified and provide a stable workforce. To me, meaningful policies involve securing the border and ensuring a dignified path to citizenship while also enforcing the law and prioritizing safety.

In his comments at Wednesdays press conference, Curtis, who represents Utahs 3rd District, referenced the Utah Compact on Immigration, a document backed by a cross-section of Utah leaders and officials meant to serve as a guiding document in the debate over immigration reform. The compact calls for a humane approach to reform that focuses on keeping families together, among other things.

The compact told us to do exactly what were doing today solve these problems, keep families together and be compassionate, Curtis said.

U.S. Rep. Chris Stewart, Utahs 2nd District representative, did not appear at Wednesdays event.

Salazar said her plan helps bring dignity and redemption to the undocumented population. We have a crisis on our southern border, children are being trafficked and we must do everything possible to fix our immigration system once and for all, she said.

Border security has been an intense focus of attention of late in the wake of Bidens moves away from some of the measures touted by his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, including additional work on the U.S. border wall. Some GOPers have accused Biden of making it easier for undocumented immigrants to cross into the United States.

We are facing a serious crisis at our southern border that is threatening the safety of Americans. Too many drugs, criminals and child sex traffickers are flowing into our country, and the Biden administration is doing nothing to stop the chaos, Owens said.

Bidens immigration reform proposal would create a roadmap to citizenship for certain undocumented immigrants who pass background checks and pay taxes. It would aim to clear backlogs of those waiting for family- and employment-based U.S. visas and also contains provisions to beef up border security via use of technology. Furthermore, it would bolster assistance to counter corruption, violence and poverty in Central America, which causes many from the region to flee to the United States.

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U.S. Reps. Moore, Curtis, Owens throw backing to immigration overhaul plan - Standard-Examiner

On Thursday, Rep. Mike Thompson (CA-05) voted to pass H.R. 6, the American Dream and Promise Act of 2021 and H.R. 1603, the Farm Workforce Modernization Act of 2021.

These bills help provide a path to citizenship for our nations Dreamers and Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, holders and establishes a program for agricultural workers to earn legal Certified Agricultural Workers status.

These critical bills work to make our nations immigration system fairer and more humane.

Our nation was built on immigration, families coming in search of a better life for their children and achieving the American Dream. But our immigration system is broken and needs to be fixed. Today, I was proud to vote to pass two bills to help ensure that promise remains open to people who are already integral parts of the fabric of our communities. These bills reflect our values as a nation, helping to make our immigration system more just and humane for people who are critical to our nations success, Thompson said.

The American Dream and Promise Act provides a path to citizenship for our nations Dreamers, young people who embody our nations finest values of hard work, patriotism and dedication. They are our neighbors, colleagues, service members, doctors and teachers, and they deserve to become citizens and live out their full potential here in the only nation many have ever known as home. I also was proud to vote to pass the Farm Workforce Modernization Act, legislation to help authorized agricultural workers get legal status and streamline the process for employers and employees. I urge the Senate to take action on these critical bills without delay, Thompson said.

The American Dream and Promise Act offers a path to legal status for Dreamers and those people with Temporary Protected Status or Deferred Enforced Departure Status. You can click here to read more about that bill.

The Farm Workforce Modernization Act establishes a program for agricultural workers to earn legal status through continued employment in their field. It also reforms the H-2A program to ensure it is more responsive and user-friendly for both employers and employees. This bill also establishes a mandatory, nation-wide E-Verify system for all agricultural employment. You can click here to read more.

Thompson represents Californias Fifth Congressional District, which includes all or part of Contra Costa, Lake, Napa, Solano and Sonoma counties.

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Thompson votes to pass immigration reform bills to offer protected status for Dreamers, agricultural workers - Lake County News