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By Zoltan L. Hajnal February 27

Some Republicans are so opposed to immigration reform that they are willing to withhold funding for Department of Homeland Security just to fight back against President Obamas executive order on immigration. To many observers, this in politically foolish. In their minds, the countrys increasing racial diversity makes it risky to oppose immigration reform.

This argument makes some sense. Immigrants and other minorities tend to care a lot about immigration and they tend to favor the Democratic Party on the issue. Recent polls indicate that Latino approval of President Obama went up markedly after he issued his executive order on immigration.

So why dont Republicans get it? The answer is that Republicans opposition to immigration reform actually represents a winning strategy, not a losing one. Heres why.

Republicans win or lose largely depending on white voters. Whites still make up the vast majority of voters some 75 percent in 2014 and whites tend to favor the Republican Party by large margins. Republican congressional candidates garnered 60 percent of the white vote in 2014. All told, 89 percent of all Republican votes in 2014 came from white voters. Put simply, the Republican Party doesnt really need the minority vote.

Moreover, whites also increasingly care about immigration. A new book by Marisa Abrajano and myself reveals the significant impact immigration has had on white party politics.

We find that white views on immigration are correlated with their partisan identity and their electoral choices. In the last midterm, for example, 75 percent of Americans who felt that most illegal immigrants should be deported voted for Republican candidates. By contrast, only 35 percent of those who favored a chance for undocumented immigrants to apply for legal status favored Republicans. As I show in research with Michael Rivera, the relationship between attitudes on immigration and white vote choice holds even after accounting for the other factors that we think affect how people vote.

But does this correlation imply causation? To answer that more difficult question, we looked to see if attitudes on immigration at one point in time predicted changes in partisanship later on. The answer is yes. To be sure, the effect is not large but even small individual shifts in partisanship, once repeated over the course of decades, can become massive electoral shifts over time.

In another study, Marisa Abrajano, Hans Hassell, and I showed that reporting on immigration was associated with shifts in the overall share of white Democrats and white Republicans in the electorate. It does, and to a startling degree. The more media coverage of immigration is negative, the larger the share of white Republicans in the electorate.

By any measure, fears of immigration are driving many white Americans to the Republican Party. And, indeed, the Republican strategy on immigration appears to have been successful. Republicans now control the House and the Senate, the governors office in 31 states, and two-thirds of the state legislatures. They are winning the political war.

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Opposition to immigration reform is a winning strategy for ...

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. Jeb Bush called himself a reform-minded conservative on Friday and stood his ground on immigration reform before a skeptical crowd of conservative activists.

The simple fact is there is no plan to deport 11 million people, Bush told the annual Conservative Political Action Conference.

He argued that there should be a path to legal status for those immigrants here illegally if they work ... dont break the law, learn English and contribute to society.

At the same time, the former Florida governor lined up squarely with the conservative faithful furious at President Obama for bypassing Congress by issuing an executive order to protect undocumented immigrants.

The simple fact is the president has gone way beyond his powers to do this and Congress has every right to reinstate their responsibility, Bush said.

He faced questions about his tenure as governor of Florida, when he tried to provide drivers licenses to illegal immigrants and, later, supported letting undocumented students pay in-state tuition at state colleges.

Bush drew some boos, but stuck to his position that illegal immigrants have to be brought into the American fold.

I know theres disagreement here, he conceded.

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Jeb Bush holds his ground on immigration reform

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) disavowed himself again on Friday from an immigration overhaul plan he once cosponsored, arguing that it didn't work amid lax enforcement by the Obama administration.

Rubio, who cosponsored a bipartisan immigration reform bill in 2013, said he's still eager to deal with the fate of roughly 12 million undocumented immigrants in the country, but "What Ive learned, is you cant even have a conversation about that until people believe and know not just believe, but its proven to them that future illegal immigration will be controlled. That is the single-biggest lesson of the last two years. "

Since the bipartisan bill failed to advance in the GOP-controlled House, Rubio has endorsed a piecemeal approach to solving the nation's immigration issues that begins by fortifying the U.S.-Mexico border before dealing with issues related to legal and illegal immigration. But reiterating those points Friday in front of a room packed with conservative activists helped endear him to the crowd even more.

The first-term senator was greeted with a standing ovation and earned a spirited response from the crowd as he delivered a robust conservative defense of American exceptionalism by jabbing President Obama's foreign policy, subtly digging former secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton, and drawing subtle contrasts between himself and potential GOP rivals for the White House.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) urged the audience at the second day of the 2015 Conservative Political Action Conference to consider what must be done to ensure America remains "exceptional." (AP)

"Sometimes you wouldnt know were an exceptional nation by listening to the president, whos described our nation as sometimes being arrogant or dictating terms to others," Rubio said. "But Americans know were exceptional and you know who else knows were exceptional? The world does. After all, when was the last time you heard about a boatload of Americans arriving on the shores of another country?"

"Because of the Obama/Clinton foreign policy, our allies no longer trust us and our enemies no longer fear us," he added later. He said that Obama is running "A foreign policy that treats the Ayatollah of Iran than the prime minister of Israel."

"Imagine if we had a president who doesnt travel the world bad-mouthing America. After all, thats the UNs job," he quipped later.

Rubio was initially expected to speak later in the day, but was given an early-morning slot -- one that will allow him to return to Capitol Hill for votes expected later today as Congress tries to sort out how to avoid a partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security

Under questioning by conservative commentator Sean Hannity, Rubio faulted Democrats for holding up consideration of legislation that would block executive actions taken by Obama in November to overhaul the nation's immigration policy. He agreed with Hannity that if Congress ever proceeds on the issue, border security will have to be considered first -- and that changes will need to be fully implemented before the debate can continue.

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At CPAC, Rubio emphasizes his distance from the immigration plan he once backed

By Zoltan L. Hajnal February 27 at 11:00 AM

Some Republicans are so opposed to immigration reform that they are willing to withhold funding for Department of Homeland Security just to fight back against President Obamas executive order on immigration. To many observers, this in politically foolish. In their minds, the countrys increasing racial diversity makes it risky to oppose immigration reform.

This argument makes some sense. Immigrants and other minorities tend to care a lot about immigration and they tend to favor the Democratic Party on the issue. Recent polls indicate that Latino approval of President Obama went up markedly after he issued his executive order on immigration.

So why dont Republicans get it? The answer is that Republicans opposition to immigration reform actually represents a winning strategy, not a losing one. Heres why.

Republicans win or lose largely depending on white voters. Whites still make up the vast majority of voters some 75 percent in 2014 and whites tend to favor the Republican Party by large margins. Republican congressional candidates garnered 60 percent of the white vote in 2014. All told, 89 percent of all Republican votes in 2014 came from white voters. Put simply, the Republican Party doesnt really need the minority vote.

Moreover, whites also increasingly care about immigration. A new book by Marisa Abrajano and myself reveals the significant impact immigration has had on white party politics.

We find that white views on immigration are correlated with their partisan identity and their electoral choices. In the last midterm, for example, 75 percent of Americans who felt that most illegal immigrants should be deported voted for Republican candidates. By contrast, only 35 percent of those who favored a chance for undocumented immigrants to apply for legal status favored Republicans. As I show in research with Michael Rivera, the relationship between attitudes on immigration and white vote choice holds even after accounting for the other factors that we think affect how people vote.

But does this correlation imply causation? To answer that more difficult question, we looked to see if attitudes on immigration at one point in time predicted changes in partisanship later on. The answer is yes. To be sure, the effect is not large but even small individual shifts in partisanship, once repeated over the course of decades, can become massive electoral shifts over time.

In another study, Marisa Abrajano, Hans Hassell, and I showed that reporting on immigration was associated with shifts in the overall share of white Democrats and white Republicans in the electorate. It does, and to a startling degree. The more media coverage of immigration is negative, the larger the share of white Republicans in the electorate.

By any measure, fears of immigration are driving many white Americans to the Republican Party. And, indeed, the Republican strategy on immigration appears to have been successful. Republicans now control the House and the Senate, the governors office in 31 states, and two-thirds of the state legislatures. They are winning the political war.

See the article here:
Monkey Cage: Opposition to immigration reform is a winning strategy for Republicans

MIAMI, FL - FEBRUARY 09: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) speaks with the media after delivering remarks during the graduation of small business owners from the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses program held at the Freedom Tower at Miami Dade College on February 9, 2015 in Miami, Florida. The Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses program helps owners in the Greater Miami area by providing them with greater access to business education, financial capital and business support services. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) Joe Raedle, Getty Images

Marco Rubio has already apologized to the right wing base for his one-time support of comprehensive immigration reform, but two years later at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Republicans are still bringing up the immigration "mistake" he made in the Senate.

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"You went forward with your immigration proposal, and at the end of the day you said, 'It didn't work. I tried...it's not going to work,'" Fox News' Sean Hannity said in a sit-down interview with the Florida senator at the conference.

Rubio insisted that his original plan was, in fact, "the single biggest lesson of the last two years."

"Well, it wasn't very popular. I don't know if you know that from some of the folks here," Rubio said in a joking aside.

The immigration plan that Hannity referenced was a 2013 immigration reform bill that Rubio played a key role in pushing. The legislation would have tightened border security, reworked the national visa program, and offered a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

It's not exactly the sort of pitch that plays well at CPAC, the right wing's Super Bowl equivalent -- even two years later when the senator is considering a 2016 presidential run. And amidst the threat of a DHS shutdown because of President Obama's executive actions on immigration, it's a knock against Rubio's conservative bona fides.

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Marco Rubio answers for his failed 2013 immigration plans -- again