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The TAKE with Rick Klein

The story of the midterms has yet to be written. But with barely a month to go before Election Day, a striking array of narratives are competing for attention -- any or all of which could wind up being of outsized consequence.

There could be an October surprise in the form of a foreign-policy crisis with a cornered Russian President Vladimir Putin challenging the world community and threatening further disruptions as a bad play on Ukraine turns worse.

A jolt could also come domestically -- with another round of inflation data looming and Republicans getting traction with messaging around crime and immigration, both of which could easily begin resonating more.

And the Supreme Court might not be done making headlines. A new term starts Monday with Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson on the bench, but with an ascendant conservative majority in a stronger place than ever in recent history as cases impacting affirmative action, gay rights, environmental protections and state legislative powers come up for argument.

Surprises might come from familiar sources around election denialism. The coming weeks will bring a final Jan. 6 committee hearing in the House, debates -- or the lack thereof -- highlighting candidates who advance false claims about the last election and a picked-up pace of campaigning as well as legal scrutiny featuring former President Donald Trump.

Amid swings in optimism and pessimism inside both major parties, it's worth remembering that sometimes October surprises aren't all that shocking. Sometimes the surprising things were there all along and just needed a nudge inside the news cycle.

Omar Gomez joins a protest for immigration reform outside Summit of the Americas at the Los Angeles Convention Center in Los Angeles, June 8, 2022.

Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images, FILE

The RUNDOWN with Averi Harper

The death toll continues to rise in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian and recovery could take years, according to Gov. Ron DeSantis.

President Joe Biden has approved federal funding to cover the disaster response in the immediate aftermath of the storm that pummeled western Florida last week, but funding for the long-haul recovery necessary will be subject to congressional approval.

In 2013, Sen. Marco Rubio (and then-congressman DeSantis) voted against recovery funds for Hurricane Sandy. Then, Rubio justified his "no" vote by blaming what he described as spending unrelated to the storm included in the legislation.

Now, faced with a daunting recovery effort in his own state, the Florida Republican was challenged by "This Week" co-anchor Jonathan Karl on if he'd vote against aid if the bill included add-ons.

"What we're going to ask for Florida is what we supported for every other state in the country that's been affected by natural disasters, and that's emergency relief designed to be sent immediately to help the people affected now," Rubio said.

That commitment comes after Rubio and Sen. Rick Scott sent a letter to the Senate Appropriations Committee asking for support in Ian's aftermath.

President Biden is slated to travel to Puerto Rico Monday and Florida on Wednesday to survey the destruction and recovery from the recent storms -- Ian and Hurricane Fiona -- in person. Rubio told Karl on "This Week" that he's been pleased so far with the federal response: "We're grateful for that."

Senator Marco Rubio is introduced to a large crowd at Melbourne Auditorium in Brevard Fla., Sept. 17, 2022.

Craig Bailey/Florida Today via USA Today Network

The TIP with Lalee Ibssa

In a blow to Georgia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams less than 40 days until the midterm races, a federal judge last week upheld the state's election laws in "what is believed to have been the longest voting rights bench trial in the history of the Northern District of Georgia," Judge Steve Jones wrote.

The case -- filed by Abrams' Fair Fight Action shortly after her 2018 election loss to now-Gov. Brian Kemp -- targeted Georgia's policies on absentee ballot cancellations, management of voter rolls and "exact match" policies, which suspend a person's voting status if there are inconsistencies between their voter registration form and their identification.

"Although Georgia's election system is not perfect, the challenged practices violate neither the constitution nor the [Voting Rights Act]," Jones wrote on Friday in his 288-page ruling. "The court finds that the burden on voters is relatively low."

He added that the plaintiffs "have not provided direct evidence of a voter who was unable to vote, experienced longer wait times, was confused about voter registration status."

In a statement, Abrams said the decision was "not the preferred outcome" but nonetheless represented a "hard-won victory" for Black and brown voters.

"This case and the public engagement on these issues have had measurable results: the reinstatement of over 22,000 ballots, substantive changes to voting laws, and a platform for voters of color to demand greater equity in our state," she said.

Out on the campaign trail, Abrams continues to defend her criticism of Georgia's voting laws, often saying that Gov. Kemp created barriers for people to vote when he was serving as secretary of state which, she has claimed despite setbacks like the ruling last week, played a role in her 2018 election loss.

Meanwhile, Kemp took a victory lap following Friday's decision.

"Judge Jones' ruling exposes this legal effort for what it really is: a tool wielded by a politician hoping to wrongfully weaponize the legal system to further her own political goals ... In Georgia, it is easy to vote and hard to cheat - and I'm going to continue working to keep it that way," he said in a statement.

Stacey Abrams attends Jay "Jeezy" Jenkins' 2nd Annual Sno Ball Gala in Atlanta, Sept. 29, 2022.

Derek White/Getty Images

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. "Start Here" begins Monday morning with ABC's Ginger Zee on Florida's recovery after Hurricane Ian's destruction. Then ABC's Devin Dwyer breaks down what to expect from the new Supreme Court term. And, chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) expert and neuroscientist Chris Nowinski explains his opinion on the NFL's concussion policy after Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sustained an injury. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the day's sharpest political analysis.

The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the day's top stories in politics. Please check back Tuesday for the latest.

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October jolts threaten to become midterm surprises: The Note - ABC News

(The Center Square) Illinois senior U.S. senator acknowledges theres a problem at the southern U.S. border and says there are no negotiations to slow the flow with the three main countries that migrants are fleeing.

About 125 Illinois National Guard soldiers from an East St. Louis transportation company are preparing to head to the Southwest, a guard spokesman said. The Illinois National Guard has been in rotation with other states as part of the years old federal mission dating back to former President George W. Bush.

Illinois Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin acknowledged there is a problem with border security, in particular with foreign nationals from three countries not controlling their migrant flow.

Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, Durbin said Wednesday in Springfield. We dont have a solid relationship with the governments of those countries and so there is no negotiation to try and slow down the flow.

While Illinois National Guard troops continue their support of the federal Southwest Border Security mission, they also continue assisting a separate state mission to receive migrants in Chicago.

Durbin said those here legally seeking asylum have been vetted.

I wanna make it clear, Im not saying skirt around the rules, Durbin said. We got to basically have protections to make sure that we never knowingly allow a dangerous person to come into this country.

About 2,000 migrants have been moved from Texas to Chicago. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has also bused thousands of migrants to New York City and Washington D.C. Hes said the self-proclaimed sanctuary cities are getting a fraction of the migrants Texas is getting. The issue has highlighted President Joe Bidens handling of border security.

Durbin criticized Texas, Florida and Arizona for busing migrants elsewhere.

We need to rewrite our immigration laws in America, Durbin said. They are broken. We need to have a system that makes sense. This system does not.

Members of Congress have talked about immigration reform for decades. Durbin said politics gets in the way.

We need an orderly process at the border, Durbin said. We need to make sure that we never knowingly allow a dangerous person to enter this country. We have to acknowledge the fact that we cannot accept everyone who wants to come into the United States at this time. We have to have a process that brings in the workforce that we need for the future of this country.

Republicans blame the increase of migrant flows on the Biden administrations reversal of some border control policies put in place by former President Donald Trump.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows an increase of total southwest land border encounters jumped from around 458,000 in 2020 to 1.7 million in 2021, the first year of Biden's term. Year-to-date for 2022, there have been more than 2.1 million encounters reported. The vast majority are single adults.

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Durbin concedes problems at southern border, but says there's 'no negotiation' to slow the flow - The Center Square

NORWOOD, OhioA Norwood man will soon be deported to Mexico for the 10th time since 2012.

Court records show Luis Tapia, 30, pleaded guilty in July to reentry after deportation, a felony. He has been detained in the Butler County jail since his arrest in September 2019.

Tapia pleaded guilty to the same charge in 2017, received a nine-month prison sentence and was deported, according to court records.

"It's not only that he keeps coming back, it's what he does when he's here," Assistant United States Attorney Kyle Healey told United States District Judge Timothy Black in court on Monday.

Tapia was convicted of domestic violence, theft, obstructing official business and failure to comply, according to Hamilton County court records.

Norwood Police Department

Healey said Tapia led police on high-speed vehicle pursuits in Hamilton County in 2010 and 2017.

The prosecutor asked Black to sentence Tapia to six to seven years in prison.

"He's a danger to this community," Healey said.

But Tapia told the judge that he was a changed man who wanted to be a better father. He promised to not return to the U.S., where he had lived most of his life during the past 25 years.

"I'm just speaking to you from my heart," Tapia said. "I want to be there for my kids."

Black sentenced Tapia to "time served" for the three years he's spent in jail.

"I'm giving you a break," Black told Tapia during his sentencing hearing on Monday. "It's on your shoulders."

After the hearing, Black allowed Tapia's children to enter the courtroom and say goodbye to him.

Tapia was deported three times in 2012, twice in 2014, three times in 2015 and once in 2018, according to an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) affidavit.

"This is an offense that hasn't been taken seriously," former immigration judge Matt O'Brien said.

O'Brien, who also served as Assistant Chief Counsel with ICE, is the Director of Investigations at the conservative Immigration Reform LawInstitute.

"If this individual hadn't been caught, what else would he have engaged in?" O'Brien said. "I think experience would indicate that he's not going to keep his word and he's going to wind up back here. And given the fact that he's an individual with an established criminal history, he's not likely to decide he wants to go to optometry school and open an honest business."

Tapia's drug charges dismissed after illegal search

In addition to being charged with illegal reentry after deportation, a grand jury also indicted him for possession with intent to distribute fentanyl and cocaine.

The charges resulted from evidence found in a duffel bag on the roof of the Norwood home where federal agents arrested Tapia.

The duffel bag contained "482 grams of cocaine and 496 grams of fentanyl," Healey wrote in the prosecution's sentencing memorandum. "Fingerprint analysis on a bag containing fentanyl positively matched Tapia's fingerprints."

Norwood Police Department

But the drug charges were dismissed in July after Black ruled the critical evidence was inadmissible because it was discovered during an illegal search.

Black told Tapia he would have faced up to life in prison if he'd been convicted of the drug charges.

Court records show about an hour after agents raided the Norwood house in 2019 and arrested Tapia, a Norwood police officer responded to a 911 call reporting that a bag had been thrown on the roof during the incident.

Officer Ryan Harrison's body camera video shows he walked into the backyard and saw the duffel bag on the roof. Then, Harrison followed one of the residents inside the house.

The officer's body camera video shows the resident retrieved the bag and handed it to Harrison who took it outside.

One of the residents, a woman who said she was the mother of Tapia's three children, said the bag was "his," although she didn't identify him by name and Harrison didn't ask any of the residents to identify him by name, according to Black's court order.

Harrison's body camera video shows he placed the duffel bag on a step outside the house and searched it.

He found baggies containing what he believed to be drugs.

"This is a lot of stinking drugs, OK?" Harrison told the residents.

Harrison said he was taking the duffel bag to the officers who had arrested Tapia.

"Nobody knew none of that was here," the woman told Harrison. "We're kind of like innocent bystanders and I don't want anything to happen to my family."

Body cam: Police seize drugs from Norwood home where man who re-entered US after deportation lived

No one else was charged in connection to the duffel bag.

In January 2020, three months after Tapia's arrest, his defense attorney Zenaida Lockard filed a motion to suppress the drug evidence.

She also argued that Tapia's cell phone should not be admissible because agents retrieved it after learning suspected drugs had been found in the duffel bag.

"The search of the red duffel bag occurred without a warrant and was invalid," wrote Lockard. "The seizure of the phone (and ultimately its contents) were a product of the illegal search of the bag."

The prosecution argued that Harrison's search was "reasonable."

"Officer Harrisons training and experience alerted him to the fact that the bag likely contained contraband of some kind, and that it was likely dangerous," wrote Healey in a response to the motion to suppress.

In his 47-page order, Black wrote that Harrison "knowingly" entered the property "without consent," then "takes a duffel bag and seizes it without permission."

Black wrote that Harrison also searched the duffel bag "without authorization."

"The Court finds the search was objectively unreasonable and the deficiencies were sufficiently reckless, if not "deliberate," to require deterrence and warrant suppression," Black wrote.

On Tuesday, Norwood Police Chief William Kramer told the I-Team he had reviewed Harrison's body camera video.

In a text message in response to the I-Team's questions, the chief wrote that he had "no issues with the way the officer handled things. There was nothing reckless or deliberate" about the search.

On Tuesday, ICE agents took custody of Tapia again, for the final leg of deportation for the 10th time.

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Norwood resident will be deported to Mexico for 10th time in 10 years - WCPO 9 Cincinnati

Rep. Michael Cloud is announcing new legislation Tuesday that would require ICE to improve cooperation with state and local police departments, pushing back on the Biden administrations embrace of immigration sanctuaries.

The Texas Republicans bill would push U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to approve so-called 287(g) agreements with any local or state agency that requests it. Mr. Clouds bill would also prod the homeland security secretary to promote the program, reversing the Biden administrations more skeptical approach.

Empowering state and local law enforcement to work with ICE to detain and deport criminal illegal immigrants is common sense, Mr. Cloud said. The Biden administrations carelessness about enforcing our immigration laws continues to benefit criminals while harming law-abiding Americans.

The 287(g) program allows local law enforcement agencies to serve as immigration officers in identifying and beginning deportation of illegal immigrants found in their jurisdictions.

ICE has called the program a force multiplier, allowing more eyeballs to scour prison and jail records for criminals whose immigration histories make them deportable.

The Biden administration hasnt inked a single new agreement in its 20 months in office and has lost seven agencies from the program.

Some of those agencies were ousted by the Biden administration, while others withdrew, including some that did so in protest against the Biden teams handling of things.

Arrests of serious criminals under 287(g) have dropped.

In 2020, the last full year under President Donald Trump, the program flagged 920 immigrants convicted of assault, 104 convicted of sex offenses and 37 convicted of homicide.

In 2021, which was mostly under President Biden, 287(g) agencies flagged just 394 immigrants convicted of assault, 74 convicted of sex offenses and 21 convicted of homicide.

ICE also has stopped updating a list of the programs successes.

The last arrest touted is from Jan. 27, 2021, just a week after Mr. Bidens inauguration. That was for a Mexican illegal immigrant whod been flagged in Georgia after being arrested for violating child pornography and forgery laws.

Mr. Clouds bill seeks to reinvigorate the program.

He would require the Department of Homeland Security to approve any new application to join 287(g) unless the secretary had a compelling reason. And any rejections must be reported to Congress in advance.

Kicking an agency out of the program would require 180 days notice.

My bill enables the proven-effective 287(g) program to be implemented widely to allow state and local law enforcement more control in keeping their communities safe, the congressman said.

His legislation comes amid a battle at the local level over the amount of cooperation authorities should have with federal immigration efforts.

The Trump years saw an explosion in the number of sanctuary cities jurisdictions that limit or outright ban cooperation.

Immigrant rights groups say ending 287(g) programs is a critical element of sanctuary policies.

The American Civil Liberties Union says it empowers racist local cops who use nitpicky infractions to flag and start the deportation of illegal immigrants.

The group, in a report earlier this year, blasted the Biden administration for not shutting 287(g) down altogether.

Even though the sheriffs involved in this program have engaged in well-documented abuses, the Biden administration continues to partner with and empower them, the ACLU said.

Mr. Clouds bill has the backing of NumbersUSA and the Federation for American Immigration Reform, two groups that back stricter immigration enforcement.

RJ Hauman, head of government relations at FAIR, called the legislation a bold step to protect 287(g).

These common-sense measures will make ICE think twice before pursuing more ideologically driven 287(g) terminations, he said.

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GOP bill would bolster ICE partnerships with local cops - Washington Times

Oct 05, 2022

Five years ago, a seventeen-year-old girl left her home in Guatemala to pursue a work opportunity in central New York. She wanted to earn money to support her parents and two of her sisters. Her brother had immigrated to the United States before her, and he'd found a job on a dairy farm. He was able to get her hired there, too. When she arrived, he walked her through the farmer's land, back to the tiny building where he lived with a few other workers. She couldn't believe what she was seeing.

She recalled saying, "I'm going to live in this house?"

By the time she left that farm, she'd spent a year living with rats, cockroaches, and bedbugs that she said made her skin break out in hives.

NCPR granted her anonymity because she's not authorized to work in the United States and fears being deported.

Latino immigrants who work on the North Countrys dairy farmsand the dairy farmers who hire themlive in legal limbo.Work on dairy farms happens throughout the year, and theres no year-round agricultural visa program, so hundreds, perhaps thousands of dairy farm workers exist in the shadows. Many live on the farms where they work, in housing provided by the farmers. There's no regular government oversight of the quality of that housing.

Some workers live in perfectly good places, but others find themselves in housing barely fit for a human being.

When the young woman from Guatemala lived on that first farm, a retired couple who volunteered with a local community action program would visit twice a week to bring food and clothingNancy Fefer and her husband Marty.

"The walls were alive with cockroaches," Marty Fefer said. "The insects and rodents were throughout the [space], on both sides. I mean, so much so that you didn't want to sit down."

There were other problems, too. In the winter, the heater didn't work.

"The heater didn't work in the wintertime," the worker from Guatemala said. "You were freezing. You had to wear so many socks and so many sweaters."

The farmer came to fix the heater, but then it started blowing black smoke into the building, the worker said.

She and her companions did not have a refrigerator. Insects and feces from rodents would be in their food.

She stayed for a year. Now, she's 23 years old, and she's been working on farms in New York for half a decade. During that time, no one from the government has ever come to inspect her housing, she said.

"Never in the time that I've worked in dairy, never did I see any supervision come to see how the immigrants were living," she said.

Under New York's Farm Laborers Fair Labor Practices Act, local health departments conduct annual inspections of housing for migrant workers who hold H-2A visas, which are for seasonal agricultural laborers.Those inspections check for compliance with the state Department of Health's Part 15 regulations, which require things like working heat, adequate floor space, functioning windows, and pest control.

But the building where this worker lived was not on an annual inspection schedule because she and its other residents were not H-2A visa holders. Many dairy farmers in the North Country hire Latino immigrants who are not authorized to work in the United States. Farmers say local people don't want the jobs. The work is dirty, repetitive, and physically taxing. As for the housing conditions, workers can complain to their local health department about issues, but various obstacles can stand in the way of their doing so.

Jessica Maxwell is the director of the Worker's Center of Central New York, a farmworker advocacy group. She said workers who live on farms often lack private mailboxes, cellphone service plans, and transportation. Many do not speak English. For those who speak indigenous languages, Spanish is a second language, too. Some do not know the name of the town or county where they live, or even the farm where they work, she said. Furthermore, their time off is limited. And many fear deportation, she said, so they avoid drawing attention.

Maxwell said substandard housing is not uncommon on dairy farms.

"We do see a lot of issues with overcrowding. Some of the other common things we see are, you know, houses that aren't weatherized appropriately," Maxwell said. "In the worst case scenarios, [we see] workers who are really being housed in buildings that are really outbuildingsbuildings that are designed for storing equipment or animals that really shouldn't be housing workers at all."

Richard Stup is an agricultural workforce specialist at Cornell. He said housing on dairy farms varies widely.

"I've been in housing that's excellent and relatively new, and I've been in housing that's adequate, you know, it's okay," Stup said. "And I've been in housing that's just, you know, rotten."

Farmers can get up to $200,000 per year from New York's Farmworker Housing Program to build or improve their facilities. Stup said there's actually been a construction boom in recent years. A lot of dairy farmers have made bunkhouse-style living spaces for their employees. When those structures are first built, Stup said they do have to meet regular building codes, but the building codes do not regulate conditions after the buildings have been approved and people have moved in.

"Thereis no particular state or federal code that governs permanent housing for these many different dairy farm employees that are in housing of one sort or another," Stup said.

In other words, if no one with an H-2A visa lives in the housing on a farm, then it won't get regularly inspected. So Stup said farmers and workers must share the responsibility of keeping the spaces livable.

"It's totally up to the farmer on how well they manage that facility, and how good of a communication system that they have established with the residents in that facility," Stup said.

But communication can be difficult when workers have very little leverage because they're in the country illegally.

Lazaro Alvarez is from Mexico City. He came to New York State several years ago, and started working on a dairy farm in the North Country. He said the housing there was overcrowded, dirty, and had a pest problem. And he spoke up about it.

"Fifteen days after I arrived, there was a meeting between workers and bosses," Alvarez said. "I said there were a lot of cockroaches, and my coworkers told me I shouldn't have said that because they were gonna fire me. And I said 'I don't care. If they fire me, they fire me.'"

Lazaro Alvarez. (Photo: Lazaro Alvarez)

Fortunately, Alvarez said, he was not fired. Instead, the farmers fumigated the housing and thanked him for telling them about the cockroach infestation.For him, saying something worked. But not every farmer is as responsive.

The female worker from Guatemala said she spoke up about her housing problems, too. She said the farmer told her he couldn't afford to fix them.

A new bill moving through Congress could change this situation. The Farm Workforce Modernization Act would create an option for immigrants to work on dairy farms legally.

The New York Farm Bureau, a lobbying organization for the state's farmers, is in support of the bill.

"It would expand the H-2A guest worker visa program to include year-round workers. So their housing, too, would be inspected and subject to all the federal housing regulations," said Steve Ammerman, a farm bureau spokesperson.

"There's a real need in this country to reform our ag labor system. And we've been an advocate for immigration reform for more than two decades now," Ammerman said.

The farm bureau supports adding year-round workers to the H-2A program despite the new hurdles it would create for dairy farmers, like having to pass regular housing inspections.

"Having access to a reliable labor force would be a great thing for our farms, our farm workers, and for our food supply," Ammerman said. "We're talking about food security here and that's national security and this would be one of the costs of doing business."

The young workerwho came to join her brother told NCPR she is part of that business, and she wants to know why the government doesn't do more to help people like her.

"The animals live better than we do. Than we do. And we are part of the economy of the United States. And there's no law to help us," she said.

She's in a better situation now, living and working on a different farm. The housing there is not perfect, she said, but it's better. She doesn't want anyone else to go through what she did.

Back on that day five years ago when she arrived on that first farm, there was nowhere for her to sleep. She remembers how her brother told her not to worry. He slept on the floor so she could have the bed.

She said seeing her brother sleeping on the floor, wrapped in sweaters to keep warm, changed her perspective on the American dream.

She remembers thinking, "Esto es Estados Unidos para nosotros," she said. ["This is the United States for us."]

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Dairy worker housing goes uninspected. The result is horrific conditions on some farms - North Country Public Radio