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As the US weighs Iran's destabilizing actions across the Middle East, the United States now has to deal with Tehrans expanding cyber cooperation with Russia.

Challenges posed by Iran continue to grow, forcing the Biden administration to take more of a hands-on approach to the regime than it possibly wanted.

While Iran supplies drones and reportedly other weapons to Russia, its proxy forces attacked US bases in Syria last week, with the US launching a rare retaliatory strike, but emphasizing its goal of avoiding a wider conflict with Tehran.

The WSJ reported Monday that Moscows burgeoning military cooperation with Tehran includes a plan to help its sanctioned allys cyberwarfare capabilities, according to the Journals sources.

The US State Department has avoided a direct response to the report. Deputy spokesperson of the US State Department Vedant Patel was asked during his press briefing Monday to react though strangely, said he had not seen it, although the article was published hours before the briefing took place.

Patel did, however, publicly comment that there is no doubt about the concern felt in the White House. What I will say is that of course Russias deepening of relationships with malign actors like Iran continues to be a deep concern, he said.

He added, We have seen the havoc caused by Iranian-made drones that Russia has unleashed on Kyiv, targeting energy and civilian infrastructure, so of course this relationship is one that we are paying close attention to.

Iran, which never condemned Russias invasion of Ukraine, began supplying kamikaze drones to its ally in mid-2022. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned in mid-July that Russia was seeking to obtain Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) from the Islamic Republic.

The first Iranian drones were used by Russia in noticeable numbers in October and first evidence of a UAV downed by Ukraine emerged on October 6.

Parts of an Iranian drone shot down in Ukraine on October 6, 2022

The WSJ quoted sources as saying that Russia has been providing Iran with communication, surveillance and eavesdropping capabilities, photography devices and lie detectors from the start of the war in Ukraine.

This is when talks in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran broke up, despite intense Western efforts to reach a compromise with Iran. In August, the European Union offered one final plan that according to Washington Tehran did not accept, by putting forth new unacceptable demands.

It is not clear to what extent Russias technical assistance is geared toward boosting military capabilities or Irans policing resources against dissidents. Surveillance technology in many cases can have dual use too. Tehran already has an extensive system of digital surveillance over its population much like China and it widely censors the internet.

As local media is under heavy government control, Iranians rely on messaging apps to receive news and exchange information. This becomes even more crucial during protests, when news about rallies and gatherings becomes a mobilization tool for protesters.

The government banned Instagram, the one accessible major platform last year to prevent communication between the people and news reaching the outside world about the protests.

Seeing this as insufficient, authorities also resorted to denying access to the Internet in wide swaths of the country for months, hurting millions of people who relied on digital commerce to make a living.

China has also been assisting Irans digital surveillance programs. In December, the United States blacklisted Chinas Tiandy Technologies for supplying video surveillance equipment to the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC).

Western countries, Israel and Saudi Arabia have in the past reported frequent Iranian cyber-attacks on government and private institutions. Social media giants Facebook and Twitter have closed thousands of fake Iranian accounts for spreading disinformation.

What this means for Iranians and for wider geo-politics is yet to be seen, but what is clear, is that the desire for Biden to quietly leave the Middle East behind, is ever-more unlikely.

Excerpt from:
Russia, Iran Military Cooperation Expands To Digital Surveillance -

board a CH-47 Chinook helicopter while departing a remote combat outpost known as RLZ on May 25, 2021 near the Turkish border in northeastern Syria. U.S. forces, part of Task Force WARCLUB operate from combat outposts in the area, coordinating with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in combatting residual ISIS extremists and deterring pro-Iranian militia. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)Getty Images

The recent Iranian proxy attack in Syria, targeting US bases, highlights a crucial moment in the region's dynamics. Tehran has probed the political resolve of its formidable opponent in Syria, and thus far, the outcome of the test seems unlikely to dissuade Iran from launching additional proxy offensives.

On the night of March 23rd, a drone of Iranian origin targeted a US base in north-east Syria. In response, the US carried out airstrikes, killing fourteen pro-Iran fighters, as reported by a monitoring group. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said they had targeted "facilities used by groups affiliated with... [the] IRGC," marking the first time an attack on US bases in Syria resulted in a casualty.

The inability of the bases air defense systems to prevent Iran's kamikaze drone attack raises questions.

The attack's timing is significant. High-level US military visits to the region and China-forged diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia preceded the strike. Iranian strategists may perceive these events as signs of US weakness in the Middle East and Syria. The attack highlights the need for the US to adapt its strategy and respond to shifting power balances.

The recent high-level visits by the US military, including the US' top general Mark Milley, have potentially raised concerns among Iran's leadership and Turkey about a renewed US commitment to the region.

Following an unannounced visit to a base in the country's northeast to meet with US troops, Army General Milley asserted that the nearly eight-year-old US deployment to Syria for combating Islamic State remains a risk worth taking.

The Chinese-brokered diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia has introduced an additional layer of complexity to the regional landscape. The driving force behind the Iranian proxy attack is a combination of fear and perceived US weakness in Syria.

The Iranian attack transpired during a moment when the US appeared vulnerable in the Middle East, particularly in Syria. The US presence in the country draws criticism not only from Russia and Iran but also from Turkey, a NATO partner. The US' failure to secure Turkey's cooperation highlights the perceived weakness of American political resolve in the eyes of Iran.

Furthermore, the US strategy in Syria suffers from fragmentation. Washington has been unable to successfully link its anti-Islamic State efforts with its anti-Assad and anti-Iranian objectives within the country. This fragmentation becomes evident when the US allows Turkish authorities to use airspace to target members of the US-allied Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and refrains from extending any political recognition to the Kurdish-led, US-backed groups. As a result, this mix of perceived weakness and strategic fragmentation leaves the US exposed in the region and susceptible to further Iranian proxy attacks.

The assassination of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 further strained US-Iran relations, leading Iran to vow retaliation. While Iran has made symbolic moves, they have not been able to carry through their threats as strongly as they had threatened.

Iran likely interpreted President Biden's remarks after the attack, in which he stated that the US does not want to seek conflict with Iran, as a sign of weakness. This defensive stance does not deter Iran, leaving the US vulnerable to future attacks.

Asserting a bold stance, Keyvan Khosravi, the spokesman for Iran's Supreme National Security Council, addressed the US retaliation on March 25th. He stated, "Any pretext to attack bases established at the request of the Syrian government to combat terrorism and Daesh [Islamic State, IS] within that nation's borders will be met with an immediate response."

Approximately 900 US troops operate in southern and eastern Syria, as part of the US-led global coalition against the Islamic State (IS).

As the US remains in a defensive position without a coherent strategy, more Iranian attacks in Syria could be expected.

Rectifying the fragmentation in the US approach to Syria is essential for the administration, as various entities pursue disjointed strategies.

Developing a clear strategy that connects anti-IS, anti-Assad, and anti-Iran efforts is crucial for the US to regain its footing in the region and effectively counter future Iranian attacks.

As a London-based research analyst and journalist, I focus on Turkey, the Middle East, and their relationships with Europe, the U.S., and Russia. I frequently visit the region and have a wealth of experience in the field, having previously advised the UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Select Committee as a Specialist Adviser. I am currently pursuing a PhD at the University of Cambridge and have a background in journalism, having worked for over a decade at the BBC News. Additionally, I worked at notable think tanks such as the SWP-Berlin, ECFR, and MEI.

Continued here:
Iran Tests US Resolve And Fragmented Strategy In Syria: Causes And Consequences - Forbes

The Canadian government said on Monday it was targeting two entities and eight individuals as part of new sanctions against Iran over human rights violations and production of drones and ballistic missiles.

Canada's latest round of sanctions against Iran, the 10th since October, targets individuals including senior officials from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) for "gross and systematic human rights violations" in Tehran and northwestern Iran, the Canadian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Sanctions also target senior Iranian officials involved in unmanned aerial vehicle and ballistic missile production, the ministry said.

Tension between Iran and the West have mounted over Tehran's nuclear activity and its supply of drones for Russia's war in Ukraine, as well as the Islamic Republic's clampdown on months of anti-government-protests. Tehran denies selling drones to Moscow for use in the war in Ukraine.

"We call on the Iranian regime to stop the brutal oppression of Irans people and to address their demands in good faith," Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said in the statement.

The sanctioned entities support "the Iranian regime by helping them disrupt and manipulate the online communications of those protesting the regime or by supplying the LEF with tactical equipment used in the brutal suppression of demonstrations," according to the statement.

See the original post here:
Canada Imposes New Sanctions Against Iran Over Protests, Drones - Voice of America - VOA News

Earlier this month, Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, traveled to Tehran amid growing concern over the proliferation risk posed by Irans expanding nuclear activities. In particular, the IAEA had recently detected uranium enriched to 84 percent in an Iranian nuclear site, at a time of heightened tensions due to the breakdown in multilateral talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

During Grossis trip, Iran agreed to allow the IAEA to reestablish certain transparency measures at select nuclear sites. Iran had suspended IAEA access and monitoring measures at these locations in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. While the two sides must still work out the details that will determine the extent of the agreements benefits, any increase in transparency is a positive step that bodes well for international efforts to contain Irans nuclear program.

The agreement with the IAEA is the first step toward a de-escalation of nuclear tensions between Iran and the West that have grown since 2019. In response to the United States withdrawal from the agreement and reimposition of unilateral sanctions the previous year, Iran began gradually breaching limits put in place by the JCPOA, including the caps on enrichment levels and the stockpile of enriched material. While the JCPOA allowed Iran to stockpile 202 kilograms of uranium enriched to 3.67 percent, as of mid-February Iran possessed 87 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, 435 kilograms enriched to 20 percent and 1,324 kilograms enriched to about 5 percent. The uranium enriched to 60 percent is particularly concerning from a proliferation perspective because it can be rapidly enriched to weapons-grade levels, or 90 percent, of which roughly 25 kilograms would suffice for a nuclear weapon.

Original post:
The IAEA Just Kept the US-Iran Nuclear Deal on Life Support | WPR - World Politics Review

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Read more here:
Rebellion in Iran: how far will the regime go? - Financial Times