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The failure of diplomatic efforts to bring Iran back to the JCPOA nuclear deal, and the problematic role being played by Iran in the Russia-Ukraine war, require a new Western strategy regarding Iran. This would aggressively push back against Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional aggressions to reduce the risk of actual war with Iran. It also would seek to reverse the drift of regional players toward Russia and China, and to stabilize a new global order.

Washington should seek a joint U.S.-European declaration that the JCPOA no longer holds, and a U.N. Security Council resolution on the resumption of sanctions on Iran ("snapback"). The United States should also advance a military option against Iran and pose a credible threat to the survival of the Islamic Republic's regime. This would not necessarily lead to war. Just the opposite is true: Without such measures, the likelihood of a violent eruption in the Middle East significantly will increase.

The present Iranian leadership could not have hoped for an easier period than the one it is now experiencing. Tehran is marching forward towards its hegemonic goals, unhindered and away from the limelight.

While Washington is absorbed by domestic concerns, by the war in Ukraine, and by the ebb and flow of tensions with China (and while Israel is distracted with internal disputes), Iran is enhancing relations with Russia and China. Iran may very well feel that catapulting to the threshold of military nuclear power is but a simple, riskless decision away.

Iran has enriched uranium to 84 percent which is very close to the 90 percent level necessary for a nuclear weapon. It has accumulated significant amounts of fissile material at various levels of enrichment and is barring International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors access to sites associated with the nuclear project. It refuses to answer the agency's questions.

At the same time, Iran is continuing its subversive activities across the region via proxy forces, deepening its political, economic and security grip in Iraq and Syria, expanding its production and export of military drones, and overall playing a significant role in the creation of an anti-American axis.

Internal protests against the regime in Iran are continuing but have been contained by brutal repression. The protests have not succeeded, yet, in posing a real threat to the regime.

As for Western responses, the European Union parliament indeed has adopted a resolution calling to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subsidiaries as terror organizations (given its terror activities, its involvement in repressing dissent, and its supplying of drones to Russia), but this is a non-binding text. The resolution has been met with derision and disdain by the IRGC commander, General Hussein Salami. He warned that such Western resolutions only motivate the IRGC to escalate its opposition to "Iran's enemies."

U.S. policy towards Iran remains anemic. President Joe Biden and his team regularly declare their commitment to preventing Iran from obtaining military nuclear capability, but they present neither a plan of action nor take active measures towards this goal.

Biden may have said, in passing, that the JCPOA "deal is dead," but the fact that no such formal announcement has been made, and no alternative measures have been announced, leaves open the prospect that Washington has not yet fully abandoned the idea of a return to former President Barack Obama's weak nuclear deal with Iran.

Iran's arrogance and its overweening self-confidence regarding the Biden administration demonstrates the erosion of U.S. standing and influence in the Middle East. This can be deduced from the conduct of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, which studiously have avoided siding with the U.S. against Russia on Ukraine and have bolstered their relations with China in the search for diplomatic support, alongside or in place of Washington's.

Even committed believers in the diplomatic option within the White House will find it difficult to deny that their approach to Iran has failed, with the U.S. paying dearly as a result. Now, with diplomacy at the point of collapse and in the face of Iran's provocative involvement in the war in Ukraine, it is finally time for Washington to check Iran's aggrandizement and aggression (as long urged by Israel), and in the process to rebuild U.S. ties with pro-Western countries in the Middle East.

This is the place to note that in Iran's view both its nuclear and conventional build-up are meant primarily to secure the survival of the Islamist regime against external foreign intervention. But the regime is there not just to survive. It is driven by an ambitious vision of Islamic revolution and regional hegemony.

In the past, sanctions have taken a heavy economic toll on Iran. However, sanctions not only have failed to generate a real threat to the regime's survival, they have not halted Iran's terrorist aims nor its military build-up.

The Biden administration cannot leave the Iranian question hanging. It would do well to put together a road map with the following elements: Snapback sanctions on Iran with tight supervision (especially of Iranian oil exports and dual-use technologies); designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization across Europe; suspension of Iranian membership in international forums; sanctions and economic pressure on individuals and organizations involved in repressing human rights; penalties on key Iranian industries; covert disruptive measures against Iran's nuclear program; and the articulation and demonstration of a credible military threat against Iran's rulers.

Some Americans fear that such steps will bring the U.S. closer to war with Iran. We argue that instead these moves will enhance American deterrence and prevent war. The elimination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 by a U.S. drone strike is a case in point. Iran reduced its overall terrorist activity in the wake of this bold move. Tehran understood the imbalance of power between the U.S. and Iran.

While this may not be a sufficient base upon which to draw broader conclusions, it does suggest that there is no need to overstate the dangers involved in tough action against Iran, nor to ignore the huge gap in relative strength between the two rivals. And the cost of the alternativethe implications of failure to act against Iranmust be borne in mind.

Meir Ben Shabbat is head of Misgav: The Institute for Zionist Strategy & National Security, in Jerusalem. He served as Israel's national security advisor and head of the National Security Council between 2017 and 2021, and for 25 years held senior positions in Israel's General Security Service. Eran Lerman is vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. He served as a deputy national security advisor, and for 25 years held senior positions in Israeli military intelligence.

The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.

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It's Time to Get Tough on Iran. Really Tough | Opinion - Newsweek

In December 2011, a US RQ-170 Sentinel drone went missing in airspace close to the Iran-Afghanistan border.

The Sentinel resurfaced on Iranian TV days later, where it was paraded as a very valuable acquisition. Six years later, an Iranian-made copy of the drone crossed from Syria into Israel, sparking a deadly exchange of fire.

The case was not a one-off. Iran has come to specialise in reverse engineering and boasts a long record of producing cruise missiles, anti-tank weapons, and fighter jet components based on designs from the US, Russia and China.

Irans engineers now enjoy far greater opportunities to test their skills than a solitary captured drone, according to US officials, who believe that Russia is regularly sending captured Western weapons from the battlefields of Ukraine to their increasingly close ally.

The Iranians are masters of reverse engineering, says Michael Knights, a scholar of the Iranian military at US think-tank the Washington Institute. They have been doing it for such a long time and they are very good at it.

Dr Knights has little doubt that Tehrans engineers are busy with the spoils of war from Ukraine. Every time they come into contact with foreign military technology, they reverse engineer it. This is not something they occasionally do. Its something they always do.

The specialism is partly a product of historic circumstances. Before the fall of the Shah and the Islamic revolution of 1979, Iran was a close ally of the US and a leading importer of its state-of-the-art hardware. Tehran bought up F-4 Phantom fighter jets in the 1960s, and then became the only foreign owner of the F-14 Tomcat.

But after the regime of Ayatollah Khomeini took power, Iran was cut off from its chief military supplier and relations with the US have remained hostile ever since. Sitting on a stockpile of ageing American weapons, but unable to replace or repair them with new parts, Iran set about building its own versions.

The results shocked the world during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, says Steven Ward, a former CIA analyst and author of Immortal, a history of the Iranian military.

Most observers thought the still state-of-the-art Tomcats would quickly become inoperable without US support, he said. Instead, Iran kept some flying and the Iraqi air force remained wary of coming into contact with the more capable Iranian pilots.

Scarcely plausibly, Iran is still operating a fleet of F-14s, having continuously replaced worn-out parts with home-made products. Analysts believe that the jets in service have been almost completely rebuilt with few of their original parts remaining.

Tehran has shown a preference for US gear over the years, often looking to its imported stockpile for inspiration. From the US-made BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missile came the Toophan replica, which has become a staple of Irans armed forces and a profitable export model.

The BGM-71 gave up another deadly gift that displayed the creativity of Iranian engineers, says Dr Knights. The warhead of the missile was used as a model for a mine that was littered across the roadsides of Iraq during the US invasion, and killed more than 100 US soldiers.

The reverse engineering programme benefits from a military industrial complex that is only behind Turkey and Israel in the wider region, and has a symbiotic relationship with the nations top universities, says Dr Ahmed Hashim, professor of war studies at Deakin University, Australia.

Iran has built a big scientific cadre, and it produces more scientific output than the entire Arab world combined, he said, noting this has taken them to the threshold of nuclear weapons.

There are limitations to Irans programme, analysts note. Tehran has struggled to reverse engineer a jet engine, which is why it is seeking to import Russian jets.

Iran might struggle to produce sophistication to match the most advanced Western weaponry, says Dr Knights, but in many cases it doesnt need to.

A lot of Western military equipment, like a Tomahawk cruise missile, is very over-engineered, he says, noting that Iran has come to specialise in pared-back, lower cost imitations that perform a similar function, often using cheaper carbon fibre material instead of expensive metals.

Concern over Irans ability to replicate Western innovation is likely a constraint on Western aid, according to Dr Kenneth Katzman, a former CIA agent and now an Iran specialist at the Soufan Center think-tank.

That is one reason why the US has held back some of the systems from Ukraine, because there is a risk of capture, reverse engineering, and learning about US capabilities, he says.

Dr Katzman highlights jet fighters and long-range missiles among the sensitive areas where the US has so far rejected Ukrainian pleas.

Combat aircraft are very complex so that would certainly be a concern, and the ATACMS missiles from long range artillery the precision of US weaponry is very good and the US doesnt want to lose its advantage by having things captured.

The US has also withheld advanced drones such as Reapers and Predators, he notes although a Reaper was brought down by a Russian jet over the Black Sea last month.

Dr Knights believes advanced communications technology and anti-tank weapons are likely to be among Irans priorities.

Losing Javelins would probably be the scariest thing, he says. Iran could also seek Himars rockets and other long-range missiles, he adds, but Russia would need a major offensive victory to capture Western air defences stationed in the rear.

The influx of Western tanks is less likely to be of interest to Iran, Dr Knights adds, as Iran has already captured nine M1A1 Abrams tanks widely seen as the worlds most advanced tank from Afghanistan and will have taken them apart down to molecular level.

The burgeoning partnership between Russia and Iran is likely to be an increasing headache for the West as the states pool resources and share knowledge, with support from an extended network including North Korea and China.

Analysts believes the partnership between Russian and Iran is more equal now in Moscows hour of need, and Iran is likely to be handsomely compensated through fighter jets and technical support for its assistance in Ukraine, including swarms of suicide drones.

Irans reverse engineering expertise has benefitted from the regular conflicts it has been involved in, suggests Dr Katzman. Tehran is not directly involved in the Ukraine war, but it could offer a unique opportunity to steal the secrets of Western militaries.

Excerpt from:
Iran's pirate weapons industry is cloning Western military hardware ... - inews

The UK will proscribe Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Security Minister said on Monday, but he did not give a time.

Tom Tugendhat made the comments during a meeting with journalist and activist Vahid Beheshti, who is on the 33rd day of a hunger strike camped on the pavement opposite the UKs Foreign Office.

During Beneshtis meeting with Mr Tugendhat, the minister expressed concerns for activists health.

I explained to Mr Tugendhat that I remain firm in my position, and my concerns over the IRGC's undermining of our values, safety and security are growing every day, the activist said later.

In the end, I asked Mr Tugendhat to pass my message to our Prime Minister, that he must uphold his pledge to proscribe the IRGC, which he made before being elected.

I assured him that I will continue my hunger strike until the IRGC is officially proscribed by the government."

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government has for months faced pressure from MPs and British Iranians to place the IRGC in the same category as Al Qaeda, Hamas and Hezbollah.

While ministers have announced several rounds of sanctions against Iran, they have stopped short of recognising the IRGC as a terrorist organisation.

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Mr Beheshti has said that sanctions are not enough to deter the IRGC from its malign activities at home and abroad.

He said sanctions imposed by the UKs Conservative government against Iran, including officials within the regime, did not go far enough.

He said the effect of such punitive measures would not be felt in the short-term and therefore would be ineffective in sending a powerful message.

Mr Beheshti said that only proscribing the IRGC as a terrorist entity would make it clear to the regime that Britain would no longer consider it a credible authority and its human rights abuses would not be tolerated.

On Friday, day 30 of his hunger strike, he wrote an open letter to Mr Sunak, pleading with him to meet him to discuss his demand.

He said the failure of past British governments to stand up to the Iranian regime's oppression in Iran and abroad has reached a critical level.

Born and raised in Borujerd, a city 400km south-west of Tehran, Mr Beheshti migrated to Britain 24 years ago and has since worked as a journalist and human rights activist.

The tipping point, he said, came in February when the TV station Iran International was forced to close its London studios after journalists received death threats from the Iranian regime.

Updated: March 27, 2023, 8:17 PM

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Tugendhat says UK will proscribe Iran's IRGC but gives no time - The National

Donald Trump has issued a warning for some of the U.S.'s biggest adversaries while accusing them of "dividing up the World."

In a post on Truth Social, the Republican, who is running for president again in 2024, wrote that China, Russia, Iran and North Korea will "respect" the U.S.

Trump earlier posted that a recent clip of China's President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin discussing a once-in-a-century geopolitical power shift during talks at the Kremlin was a "low point" for the U.S.

In a social-media post on Sunday, Trump wrote: "China, Russia, and Iran, not to mention North Korea and other countries, have placed the U.S. in a very bad and dangerous position. They are dividing up the World as we sit around and let them do it. They no longer respect the U.S., BUT THEY WILL!!!"

On March 21, Presidents Xi and Putin were seen shaking hands while discussing the strength of their alliance. The U.S. has frequently accused China of siding with Russia amid the Ukraine invasion.

"Right now, there are changes, the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years. And we are the ones driving these changes together," Xi told Putin via an interpreter. Putin responded: "I agree."

Trump reacted negatively to the exchange in a Truth Social post. "President Xi's statement to President Putin, caught on hot mic, was maybe a low point, in history, for the USA," the former president wrote.

Trump has frequently said that countries do not "respect" the U.S. now he is no longer in the White House. He flipped between praising and threatening authoritarian rulers while president.

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Trump said Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if he were still president, while citing his positive relationship with Putin. Trump was widely criticized for describing the Russian leader's military tactics before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as "savvy" and "genius."

Trump has also praised North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. The Republican said at a September 2018 rally in West Virginia that the pair "fell in love" while exchanging letters.

This positive relationship also saw Trump become the first sitting president to step foot in North Korea to meet its leader in June 2019. However, Trump had threatened to annihilate the country in January 2018.

"North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the 'Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times,'" Trump tweeted. "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"

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Trump Sends Warning to Russia, China and Iran, Says They 'WILL' Respect Us - Newsweek

Mohammad Javad enters a fashionable shop in well-to-do north Tehran with his mother. For the first time ever he wants a necktie, long banned in Iran as a symbol of Western decadence.

The 27-year-old dentist said he opted for this clothing accessory in hopes of looking his best during the first meeting with his future in-laws.

"In our society, wearing a tie is like wearing a mask before COVID-19 hit," he said as the salesman adjusted his suit. "People would look at you differently because the negative view still remains.

"I think a man looks chic with one. Unfortunately, we Iranians have imposed strange and unnecessary restrictions on ourselves. It'll take time for that to change, but hopefully it will."

Dress rules have stoked strong passions in Iran, especially restrictions on women who have long been required to wear modest clothing and headscarves.

Iran was gripped by unrest, labeled "riots" by the authorities, after the September 16 death in custody of Iranian Kurd Mahsa Amini, 22, following her arrest for an alleged violation of the country's strict dress code for women.

Iran banned the tie for men after the 1979 overthrow of the US-backed monarch as a symbol of Western culture. Although it has made a slow comeback since, government officials and most Iranian men continue to shun the cravat.

The upmarket Zagros shop on the capital's Nelson Mandela Boulevard however displays rows of ties in different colors and in wool, cotton or silk.

"We sell around 100 a month," said deputy store manager Mohammad Arjmand, 35. "We import them mostly from Turkey, but some are also made in Iran. "Customers buy them for ceremonies or for work. In this neighborhood, you will find that two out of 10 people wear one. These days more people are wearing ties compared with previous decades."

The recent unrest "had no effect on our sales", said branch manager Ali Fattahi, 38. "Our customers who were wearing ties before still do so and come to us regularly to buy new ones."

Iran's Shiite clerics who came to power in 1979 banned the tie because, in their eyes, it was un-Islamic, a sign of decadence, a symbol of the cross and the quintessence of Western dress imposed by the shah, said one trader who asked not to be identified.

After vanishing for decades, ties reappeared in some shop windows during the era of reformist president Mohammad Khatami from 1997 to 2005.

Today, government ministers, senior civil servants and heads of state-owned companies don't wear ties with their suits and opt for shirts with buttoned, open or Mao collars.

Lawyer Masoud Molapanah said "wearing a tie is certainly not a crime" under the constitution or Islamic sharia law. "But there are dress restrictions in certain places such as on television."

Javad, while choosing his tie, was accompanied by his chador-clad mother, who not only encourages him to wear one but also asked the salesmen to teach her how to tie it properly for her son.

"At one time, some sought to remove it," said the 50-year-old state employee, with a smile. "The reason given was the rejection of any sign of Westernization.

"But then it would have been necessary to also remove the suit and return to the traditional dress worn at the time of the Qajar dynasty" of 1794-1925, she said, adding this "was obviously impossible".

The head of a nearby Pierre Cardin store, Mehran Sharifi, 35, said many young people now are enthusiastic about the necktie.

"Ties give prestige to people -- a lot of people buy them," said this son and grandson of a tailor, pointing to a century-old photograph on the wall of his grandfather wearing a tie. "Customers come to buy suits and we match ties to their choice of clothing. Others buy them as a gift."

In some classy cafes, the black tie or bowtie are part of the uniform of waiters, and doctors in several Tehran districts have also sported ties.

The fashion accessory is almost compulsory for Iranians working at embassies and in some foreign companies, although most remove it when they go out on the street.

Sadeq, 39, employed at the Japanese embassy, said he puts on his tie when he gets to work "because wearing a tie in public is not very common in Iran".

"If you dress up like that and walk in the street, you'll definitely turn a few heads. People will think you're either a foreigner or someone headed to a very formal meeting with foreigners."

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Once banned, now back: Iran sees timid return of neckties - Japan Today