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Iranian soldiers march during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the devastating 1980-1988 war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq, in the capital Tehran on September 22, 2022. Credit - AFP-Getty Images

As we observe the twentieth anniversary of the Iraq War, which claimed more than 4,600 American lives and countless Iraqis, we must make an honest assessment of the war. The war cost the U.S. trillions, upended Middle East stability, and ultimately benefited Irans aggressive and expansionist agenda by capturing much of the political and military institutions in Baghdad and Damascus. Despite its tremendous cost, the war weakened Americas geostrategic position and damaged our national credibility.

What can be learned from this calamity? As authors of the U.S. governments definitive study on the Iraq War, two somewhat conflicting central points stand out. First, the war should never have occurred. Second, once the war began, it should not have been abandoned without leaving behind a stable Iraq, even if that meant staying for years.

Invading Iraq in 2003 was strategic folly and one of the worst foreign policy decisions in the history of the Republic. Tainted and inaccurate intelligence provided justification for disarming Saddam Hussein of weapons of mass destruction that didnt exist. Pretending that Iraq could be the hearth for democracy in the Middle East or that it was abetting Al Qaeda terrorists were similar delusions. But the decision to invade defied an even larger truth, one that was clear even before the war. Iraq provided a physical and practical buffer to Iran, a country that few disputed had an active weapons of mass destruction program in 2003 and which has consistently demonstrated the intent to use such a capability alongside its terrorist objectives.

Iran, which regularly calls for the destruction of the U.S. and actively supports our enemies, was the larger and clearer threat to our interests both then and now. Regime change in Iraq destroyed a status quo that, by extension, benefitted the U.S. In essence, Iraqs geostrategic position in 2003 helped regional security by focusing Irans attention and resources next door. In addition to this geopolitical damage, the preemptive invasion, conducted without U.N. Security Council authorization and on the basis of dubious intelligence, squandered our international standing and goodwill, which was abundant in the wake of 9/11.

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Read More: There Were Many Ways to Die in Baghdad

Once the invasion occurred and Iraqs security forces evaporated those same considerations should have driven U.S. policy to restore the countrys stability, vis--vis Iran. The region represents a vital strategic interest for the U.S., as does blocking the expansion of Iranian influence. Unfortunately, the U.S. chose to ignore this reality and when politically expedient, withdrew from Iraq and hoped for the best. Beyond the error of the initial invasion, withdrawing was nearly as significant a strategic error, placing Iraqs future into the hands of a corrupt and sectarian Prime Minister who was intent to establish Shia domination and Iranian alignment. While Iraqs condition had improved significantly since 2003, sufficient signs existed in 2011 that progress was fragile. Prime Minister Nouri al Malikis sectarianism and authoritarianism, toxic components that would lead to further destruction of Iraq, had been on full display and reported to Washington. Iraq, shattered by decades of war, sanctions, and corruption, needed longer to heal and needed American help to prevent an Iranian takeover.

Although we had decided that we were done with Iraq and all its associated challenges, Iraq wasnt done with us. American strategic myopia enabled Malikis government to kill or disenfranchise Sunnis and financially isolate the Kurds, paving the way for the rise of ISIS and a return of U.S. forces. We are still in Iraq today, and still without a status of forces agreement that was used for political cover to end our military presence in 2011. But todays Iraq looks very different. Iranian-backed militias, on the Iraqi payroll, now outnumber the Iraqi Army. The Ministry of Defense now includes officers and generals who are designated terrorists. Iranian aligned militias have captured state resources through political representation in Parliament and by controlling key posts in lucrative ministries. Irans influence now waxes in an uninterrupted arc from Tehran to the Mediterranean, traipsing across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

Retaining U.S. forces in Iraq would have been a difficult decision for a war weary America. But a residual force that was closely tied to key political objectives and aimed at reducing Iranian influence could have prevented the treacherous strategic situation we face today: Iraq as a broken and devastated nation, serving as a base and transit point for Iranian forces. Luckily, the U.S. retains some tools to steer Iraq to a more constructive and stable future. The U.S. can impose high economic costs on the Iraqi military and government to remove Iran-backed terrorists from its payroll, withhold U.S. banknote transfers that inexplicably continue despite their laundering by Iran, and remove sanctions waivers so Iraq can free itself from an artificial energy dependence on Iran. And perhaps most importantly, the U.S. must militarily deter Iran so that it retracts rather than expands its regional aggression. Only these measures are likely to reverse the tailspin of Iraqs perilous future, a future that we set in motion twenty years ago.

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How Iran Won the Iraq War - Yahoo News

After years of hostile and frayed relations, Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to reestablish diplomatic ties and reopen mutual embassies a deal reportedly brokered by China that has raised eyebrows across the globe.

Over the weekend, Iran claimed that Saudi Arabia extended an invitation to Tehran for a state visit, but details surrounding the meeting remain unclear.

Since news of the deal emerged, concerns have mounted over what this newly repaired relationship could mean amid failed U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, Israeli attempts to normalize ties with regional neighbors under the Abraham Accords, and Chinas growing influence in the Middle East.

SAUDI ARABIA INVITES IRANIAN PRESIDENT RAISI FOR VISIT AFTER RESTORING DIPLOMATIC TIES: REPORT

The March 10 agreement between Tehran and Riyadh not only brought renewed light to the complex dynamics that have flourished within the Middle East for decades, it also depicted how tense U.S.-China relations are shaping foreign policy across the globe.

"The Chinese are keen to actually make this look like a zero-sum the Chinese win, America loses,"Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,told Fox News Digital. "They want to have the impact of this agreement do things for them in the policy space."

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"That means the slow erosion of the U.S. force posture in the region, the slow erosion of the U.S.-led order in the region," he said.

In addition, China has a vested interest in ensuring stability between Saudi Arabia and Iran as they are both its largest trading partners in the Persian Gulf.

Tehran also has a lot to win with the new agreement.

After being the regions pariah state for years and facing down increased pressure from the West over its development of nuclear weapons along with aid to Russia amid the war in Ukraine, Tehran is looking to repair ties with its neighbors.

Repairing geopolitical relations in the Middle East would not only serve as a boost to its economy, it could also position Tehran with more influence over regional matters like the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

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CHINA, RUSSIA, IRAN TEAM UP FOR MILITARY EXERCISES IN MIDDLE EAST

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of Iran, left, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud of Saudi Arabia Iran and Saudi Arabia announced Friday that they have agreed to resume diplomatic ties and end years of hostility.

Under the Abraham Accords, which were brokered by the U.S. beginning in 2020, Israel began normalizing ties with Middle Eastern nations like Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but these nations have also begun repairing ties with Iran throwing into question Israels regional security.

"Iran is trying to break out of this land of isolation that the Abraham Accords had imposed on it by saying to the world, I beat Jerusalem to Riyadh," Taleblu said, noting that Saudi Arabia has not yet signed on to normalize ties with Israel. "It's trying to downgrade or devalue the Abraham Accords and counter its expansion."

But the Middle Eastern expert also said that Iran has a long-term goal that it is ultimately working toward ending U.S. influence in the region.

"The Iranian modus operandi has been to divorce some of these GCC countries from their external patron," he said in reference to the Gulf Cooperation Council, a trading block made up of the regions top economic players like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar. "Which is a military, diplomatic and economic rope-a-dope."

"It doesn't mean it's over. It doesn't mean those countries don't believe in U.S. power. It means that the regime in Tehran is trying to capitalize on it. And of course, the Chinese are trying to capitalize on it," he added.

But it's not only the U.S. and Israel that Taleblu argued did not necessarily come out on top in the latest deal.

President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud are shown during the Jeddah Security and Development Summit at a hotel in Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coastal city of Jeddah on July 16, 2022.

Saudi Arabia also does not stand to gain as much as Iran or even China from the agreement.

While Riyadh also could see financial benefits from regional security, a trade partnership with Tehran and in appeasing wishes from Beijing to settle relations in the Middle East, some of its top issues with Iran are unlikely to be resolved.

Saudi Arabia has been engaged in a proxy war against Iran in Yemen since 2015 and in Syria since at least 2013.

"There is no evidence to suggest that Tehran will all of a sudden do a 180 on some of its most accessible elements of its border and security policy which is the proxy strategy," Taleblu said. "If the Saudis think that by opening an embassy this is a release valve for the conflicts they may have another thing coming."

CHINA DENIES HIDDEN MOTIVES AFTER BROKERING TALKS BETWEEN SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN

Supporters of Yemen's Huthi movement demonstrate in front of the closed U.S. Embassy in Sanaa on Jan. 18, 2021.

Taleblu argued that ultimately this agreement is a "sign of the times" and shows that U.S. partners in the Middle East are increasingly stepping back from Washingtons influence.

Partners across the globe, including in the Middle East, are not necessarily looking to severe ties with Washington but are looking out for the best interests of their own nations, even if that means expanding trade and economic ties with the U.S.s top adversary China.

"[Washington] is going to have to take off the glasses that say that great power competition is still pied, or segmented or highly regionalized," Taleblu said. "No, great power competition is a global phenomenon."

But ultimately the Middle Eastern expert warned against overreacting to the deal and pointed out that a panicked response is exactly what China and Iran are hoping for.

"They're hoping to have this concern spark something politically, such that the U.S.-Saudi relationship which is a little bit on the rocks ends up becoming a U.S.-Saudi divorce," he said. "People are projecting their views onto this deal, and the more they project their views, the more there is concern, panic and chaos."

While the agreement appears like a loss for the U.S., Israel and even Saudi Arabia to an extent, Taleblu argued it may not play out this way in the long run.

President Joe Biden, left, is welcomed by Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on July 15, 2022.

The expert said the U.S. needs to improve its relationship with Riyadh and then work on expanding the Abraham Accords, noting that Saudi Arabia has cleverly positioned itself when it comes to dealing with a volatile Tehran, which is beholden to trade with Beijing.

"This is akin to a schoolyard fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran," Taleblu said. "Saudi Arabia, rather than calling the principal, which can punish Iran the principal [being] the U.S. Saudi Arabia's just calling Iran's parents China which may potentially be able to restrain Iran."

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US left out as China, Iran come out on top in latest deal with Saudi Arabia: 'Sign of the times' - Yahoo News

In his vitriolic new year speech, Irans Supreme Leader claimed the US president and European heads of state arm the countrys revolutionaries.

During recent unrest, the US president and heads of states of certain European countries openly offered weapons and financial and security support to rioters to weaken the Islamic Republic but what happened was the opposite, he said, in spite of the country being in its worst economic recession for decades and all but isolated on the world stage.

The allegation was one of many thrown at the West in a new year speech Tuesday, amidst outright denials of Irans having sent drones to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine. We categorically deny any presence in the Ukraine war and such a thing is not true at all, he said.

The remarks show little has changed in the regime rhetoric after more than six months of protests calling for an end to the Islamic dictatorship.

Khamenei, whose public speeches are always peppered with scathing criticism of the West, said not only has the enemy fanned the flames of unrest in the country, triggered by the death in custody of Iranian-Kurd, Mahsa Amini, but claimed the Wests goal is to topple the regime and in turn, see Islam fade into oblivion.

It is what he terms a hybrid war against Iran waged by the West to undermine clerical rule, a propaganda war to undermine the nations will, sow despair among the youth, and make them disappointed at the future, work, and progress by fudging the facts.

This emphasis on such conspiracies are meant to deflect attention from the fact that Irans economy is in crisis and young people have lost all hope for their future, yearning for cultural and personal freedoms away from suffocating religious laws.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during Nowruz gathering in Mashhad, March 21, 2023

Khamenei who espouses a 20th-century leftist ideology of anti-imperialism also accused the West of having colonial designs on Iran. In everything they do, they seek to politically and economically dominate Iran and plunder it, he maintained.

Perhaps reflecting his deep resentment towards Saudi Arabia, which is no secret, Irans 83-year old authoritarian ruler failed to mention a recent agreement with the oil-rich Persian Gulf state to normalize relations, despite the fact that the deal announced earlier this month came as a diplomatic earthquake in the region and possibly the biggest diplomatic victory for Iran in years.

Removing it from isolation from one of the regions biggest powers, the deal has brought Iran in from the cold at a time when it has become a pariah on the world stage, not least, since the collapse of nuclear talks, the JCPOA, after Iran's intransigence in negotiations.

Khamenei has long labelled the Saudi ruling elite as corrupt and un-Islamic, but approved restoration of ties amid its own isolation.

Recently, more and more politicians and commentators in Iran call for an opening to the world, arguing that in the 21st century no country can succeed alone. The Iranian regimes ongoing nuclear program and its support for dangerous militant groups around the region have further isolated the country both politically and economically.

Showing no signs of weakening these proxy groups based in several countries including Lebanon and Iraq, in addition to cells far beyond the Arab world, Khamenei also reiterated support for what he calls his axis of resistance.

While it is hoped that the Saudi deal will mean Irans disarming the Houthis in Yemen, skeptics suspect the regime will not alter its policy of arming its proxies around the region. It is as yet unclear if the Houthis too, will agree to disarming.

While relations with the West continue to nosedive, Khamenei claimed that the Wests efforts to isolate Iran have failed, praising his policy of forging closer relations with dictatorships China and Russia, what he has dubbed as a policy of looking East

He had little to say on matters of economy to reassure the people that the worst recession in decades showed any sign of abating.

Economically, Iran has fallen behind even in the oil and natural gas sectors which represent its main sources of foreign currency revenues needed for economic development. Its energy sector needs upwards of $200 billion in investments, according to its own oil minister Javad Owji, in spite of the country sitting on the worlds second biggest oil fields.

In a bizarre twist, Khamenei said that Iran should even ditch the US dollar after months of sharp declines in the value of the rial, claiming that several sanctioned countries which stopped using the dollar found their situation got better. He failed to give examples of such wild claims.

The fate of the country remains in the hands of an aging leader with old-fashioned diplomatic and economic policies. It may be a new year for Iran, but it is still, old rhetoric which dogs its leadership.

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Khamenei Claims West Is Offering Arms To Iran Protesters -

WASHINGTON (AP) President Joe Biden used a White House event to mark Persian New Year on Monday to pay tribute to Iranian women and girls who took to the streets of Iran to protest following the death last year of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini and vowed to keep pressure on Tehran.

Biden said he wished the Nowruz holiday, a nearly 4,000-year-old tradition known as the Festival of Fire thats linked to the Zoroastrian religion, would be a moment of hope for the women of Iran fighting for their human rights and fundamental freedoms.

The United States stands with those brave women and all the citizens of Iran who are inspiring the world with their conviction, Biden said, describing the reception as the biggest White House Nowruz celebration to date. Were going to continue to hold Iranian officials accountable for their attacks against their people.

The United States, Europe and the United Kingdom have imposed a series of fresh sanctions on dozens of Iranian officials and organizations, including the countrys special military and police forces, for their violent clampdown.

The protests began in mid-September when Amini died after being arrested by Irans morality police for allegedly violating the Islamic Republics strict dress code.

The protests mark one of the biggest challenges to Irans theocracy since the 1979 revolution.

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Biden pays tribute to Iranian women at Nowruz celebration - Yahoo News

Irans nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani met European diplomats last week in Oslo, the official news agency IRNA reported Wednesday without details about the talks.

Quoting several well-informed sources IRNA said Bagheri-Kani, who is also deputy foreign minister met with foreign ministry directors of the United Kingdom, France and Germany, three signatories of the 2015 nuclear accord known as the JCPOA.

An official from the German foreign ministry confirmed Wednesday afternoon that a meeting had taken place, but said the purpose was "to make our positions very clear in the face of the Iranian escalation in many areas. No, there are still no negotiations, not even on the JCPoA."

The three countries are known as the E3 and participated in long but unsuccessful negotiations with Iran in Vienna, together with Russia and China from April 2021 to March 2022. The European Union that has been coordinating the talks continued discussion with Iran in the following months hoping to bring about a deal to revive the JCPOA, abandoned by the United States in 2018.

These attempts reached a deadlock last September followed by US declarations that reviving the JCPOA is no longer on its agenda.

Europe has also adopted a sharply critical position toward the Islamic Republic on its gross violations of human rights by a deadly crackdown on protesters. Several rounds of sanctions by the EU and the UK have been announced against entities and officials involved in violence against civilians and mass arrests.

IRNA quoting a senior official said that Enrique Mora, deputy to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell was also present at the meeting. But Amwaj.media, which also reported about the meeting, later quoted a diplomatic source as saying that Mora was not present.

IRNA also said that there is no information about the agenda of the meeting, but quoted a senior Iranian official as saying that the event was supposed to be a brain storming session. IRNA quoted another source who said the meeting was secret, which the agency said shows there are still obstacles to renewed negotiations.

The report went on to say, Although such meetings rarely take place in Norway, but this was not the first time this Scandinavian country, which is not an EU member, hosted talks between Iran and Europe. It added that a similar meeting also took place a few months ago.

IRNA's report is full of positive references to recent Iranian diplomatic efforts. It seems that Iranian government wants to reinforce positive news about its attempts aimed at ending its international isolation.

IRNA also claimed that the are signs about a possible release of US citizens held in Iran, a claim recently repeated by Iranian officials and dismissed by Washington.

IRNAs report seems more as an attempt to reinforce optimist about Iran breaking out of isolation with mentioning a vague deal achieved with the International Atomic Energy Agency earlier this month when the agencys chief Rafael Grossi paid a two-day visit to Tehran.

Irans economic situation has sharply deteriorated in recent weeks, amid continuing US sanctions, with the national currency falling to historic lows, signaling much higher inflation in the coming months. Tehran seems anxious to make some sort of improvement in its foreign relations and to open the door to more talks with Washington.

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Iran Reports Meeting Held With European Diplomats -