Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

‘Irrationality is subjective’: fears rise of conflict between Iran and … – OC Media

Long-simmering tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran have risen to a boil in recent months, with military drills on the border and escalating accusations. In the wake of an attack on Azerbaijans embassy in Tehran, some worry that those words could precede actions.

On the morning of 27January, a man ran into Azerbaijans embassy in Tehran armed with a Kalashnikov assault rifle and opened fire. He killed the embassys head of security and injured two others before a member of staff wrestled control of the gun from him, allowing the attacker to be arrested by the police.

Both Iran and Azerbaijans state-aligned media swiftly reported the story, but the two took notably different angles.

While Irans police chief and media described the incident as a rogue escalation of a family conflict, Azerbaijani outlets immediately disputed those accounts. They alleged that Iran was deliberately distorting the nature of the incident, with some even claiming that Irans special services were behind the attack.

Azerbaijani state officials soon followed suit, declaring that all embassy employees would shortly be evacuated, as Iran had failed in its duty to protect the embassy.

Azerbaijani writer and political analyst Samad Shikhi describes the embassy attack as the peak of Iran and Azerbaijans tensions.

Not even a day after the incident, Ilham Aliyev referred to the incident as an act of terror. For an event to be classed as terrorism, it must have an ideological, political, or religious basis. But [Aliyev] was announcing his position by describing the incident in such a way without investigating its cause, says Shikhi.

While the Azerbaijani response might appear disproportionate to what could have been an isolated, if tragic incident, it was the latest escalation in a diplomatic conflict that has grown increasingly heated since late 2022.

Iran and Azerbaijan have long been at odds. Azerbaijans tight alliance with Turkey and Israel has been a long-running source of friction, while Irans cosy relations with Armenia, particularly since Azerbaijans victory in the 2020 war, have been poorly received by Baku.

Both countries also have factions who lay historic and present-day claims to the territory of the other.

While some groups in both Azerbaijan and northern Iran have expressed a desire to unite southern Azerbaijan with Azerbaijan proper, Iranian members of parliament have pointedly noted that the country was historically a part of the Iranian Safavid Empire, and suggested that Iran annex Azerbaijans autonomous exclave of Nakhchivan.

Since the settlement that ended the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was agreed, discussions of either a road or corridor that would connect western Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan have added fuel to the fire.

If Azerbaijan got its way, the route could run along Armenias southern border with Iran. This would both potentially block direct Iranian access to Armenia, forcing it to access the Caucasus through Azerbaijan, and mean that Azerbaijan would no longer be forced to access Turkey and Nakhchivan through Iran.

In late 2022, these underlying tensions turned into action.

After Tehran blamed an Azerbaijani citizen for an attack on a mosque in Shiraz in October, Azerbaijans State Security Service announced that it had intercepted a network of spies working for Iran in Azerbaijan, with both countries going on to launch military drills near their shared border.

This escalation was matched by a rhetorical shift. Speaking after Iran ran military exercises in the north of the country, Azerbaijans President Ilham Aliyev stated in November 2022 that Azerbaijan had organised their own military drills near the Iranian border to demonstrate that we are not afraid of them.

Speaking at a conference of Turkic states, Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan would do everything to protect the rights, freedoms, and security of Azerbaijanis living abroad, including Azerbaijanis in Iran. He added that he was determined to ensure that they remain loyal to the ideas of Azerbaijanism, and never cut ties with their historical homeland.

They are part of our nation, said Aliyev.

Azerbaijans president also indicated that relations were particularly challenging with the Raisi government.

I have worked with three presidents of Iran Khatami, Ahmadinejad, and Rouhani. In all these years, a situation similar to todays has never arisen, said Aliyev. Never has Iran held two military exercises on our border within a few months. Never has it been so full of hatred and threats against Azerbaijan.

A few weeks later, Azerbaijan conducted a large-scale joint military exercise in cooperation with Turkey on the countrys southern border with Iran.

The hostility has continued apace this year, with a series of detentions of alleged Iranian spies in Azerbaijan, and a month later, another conflict erupting after an Iranian military plane trailed the countries border.

Shujaat Ahmadzada, a Baku-based political analyst and conflict expert, told OCMedia that Azerbaijans national identity was a threat to Iran on two fronts: firstly, he says, it provokes the idea that Iranian Turks could have a nation-state, in contrary to Irans strategy of national unification and assimilation.

Azerbaijans secularity also provides an alternative to the theocratic lifestyle promoted by the Islamic regime, claims Ahmadzada, and so threatens the pillars of political control.

It is for these reasons, he says, that anti-Azerbaijani discourse in Iran focuses on denying Azerbaijani identity, statehood, and history.

For example, responding to Aliyevs comments in late 2022, Iranian MP Seyed Alborz Hosseini implied that Azerbaijan would still be a part of Iran were it not for the Treaty of Gulistan, signed between Iran and the Russian Empire in 1813 and ceding control of Azerbaijan and other regions of the Caucasus to Russia.

At the same session of parliament, another MP, Mohammad Reza Mirtajuddin, called for Iran to annexe Azerbaijans autonomous exclave of Nakhchivan.

The MP also called for President Aliyev to note that Azerbaijan separated from Iran, not the other way around.

While Azerbaijani nationalists in Azerbaijan and Iran have called for the unification of northern Iran with Azerbaijan, officials have steered clear of the issue, instead focusing their criticism on Irans tight ties with Armenia.

[Iran] pumps gas, builds roads, sells weapons, and sends soldiers to Armenia, said Jeyhun Mammadov, of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, in Azerbaijans parliament in December 2022.

Mammadov went on to accuse Iran of disruptive activities within Azerbaijan, suggesting that the country was filling peoples brains with poisonous ideas and ideologies.

Similarly, member of parliament Sabir Rustamkhanli stated that Iran was denying tens of millions of Azerbaijani Iranians the right to their mother tongue [] while 100,000150,000 Armenians [in Iran] have schools, press, and churches.

He added that Iran had supported Armenia in occupying territory previously under Azerbaijani control, and participated in the territories destruction.

The transportation of weapons to Armenia through Iran during the second Karabakh war is not a secret to anyone, said Rustamkhanli. The Iranian regime brings its own end without any outside intervention.

Azerbaijani writer and political analyst Samad Shikhi believes that Azerbaijan has been deliberately building Iran into an enemy as a scapegoat.

Azerbaijan wants to present Iran as a new enemy. In fact, however, the country is not a new enemy, but a carefully maintained one, Shikhi told OCMedia.

He says that while in previous years, the idea that Iran was an enemy and opponent of Azerbaijan was expressed tacitly, in the last half year the idea has been expressed officially, by members of parliament and even Azerbaijans president.

Discussing the issue in words is not enough for them, says Shikhi, their agenda is also apparent in their actions.

He cites examples of anti-Iranian propaganda on television, the arrest of Azerbaijanis who had studied religion in Iran, and protests held in front of the Iranian embassy in Baku.

Shikhi says that the uses of Iran as an enemy for Azerbaijan are evident: one example is in Azerbaijans land borders, which have remained closed for three years now, allegedly to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

They are able to keep the land borders closed and use propaganda to convince people that this is because of the threat from Iran and Russias war with Ukraine, says Shikhi.

He also notes that Azerbaijans ties with Israel have played a significant role in raising tensions.

Israel is known to have supplied Azerbaijan with weapons during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, and, in February 2023, Azerbaijan appointed its first ambassador to Israel.

Shikhi cites Azerbaijani MP Fazil Mustafa, who said in parliament that Azerbaijan should ask Israel not to hit Tabriz, a city in northern Iran with a majority ethnic-Azerbaijani population, because we need it to prosper.

Regarding the threat that the conflict might break out beyond the bounds that it has occupied so far, Ahmadzada is ambivalent.

He says that Azerbaijan is in a more powerful position than before, in light of the new balance of power that emerged after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and closer ties between Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Nonetheless, Iran remains significantly larger and more militarily capable than Azerbaijan, which attempts to maintain balance by strengthening cooperation with states that are traditionally enemies of Iran: Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.

The substantial power differential between the two countries means that Irans Turkic population, and not Azerbaijan, is the key actor in this situation, Ahmadzada says.

He adds that, while he believes that Iran is more likely to initiate conflict than Azerbaijan is, it would be irrational for either side to choose to go to war.

First of all, if armed violence is used, there is a strong likelihood that the conflict would intensify, spread to other regions, and possibly even become global.

He cites Azerbaijans alliances with Turkey and Israel, the former having demonstrated its willingness to intervene on behalf of Azerbaijan in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the latter having frequently indicated it is prepared to undertake military action against Iran.

He adds that an attack on Azerbaijan could cause domestic issues for Iran, due to the 25million40million Azerbaijani-Iranians living in the country; 3045% of the countrys population, and greater than the total population of Azerbaijan.

For the Iranian side to initiate military action would be an entirely irrational action. However, it should be noted that irrationality is rather subjective and that states occasionally commit irrational actions on purpose.

How relations play out in the weeks and months to come remains to be seen.

Ahmadzada notes that, regardless of specifics, any resolution is unlikely to be swift.

The origin of the crisis in Azerbaijan and Irans relations is systemic, he says.

In such systemic conflict situations, it is sometimes possible to act fast and in a modest, declarative way to get out of a difficult position, but you must realise that unless the systemic roots of the dispute are addressed, the conflict will persist in some way.

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'Irrationality is subjective': fears rise of conflict between Iran and ... - OC Media

Iran Has Only Itself to Blame for Its ‘Water Bankruptcy,’ Some Experts … – PassBlue

Lake Urmia in northern Iran was once the largest such saltwater body on earth, but it has shrunk to a 10th of its former size, experts say, because of damming of the rivers flowing into it and groundwater pumping from the surrounding region for development. The lake is protected as part of Unescos biosphere reserves. Overall, Iranian mismanagement, global warming and decreased rainfall has left the country with a chronic, menacing water crisis. CREATIVE COMMONS

Billed as the first of its kind in a generation, the United Nations is holding a heavily attended water conference in New York City this week, drawing attention to countries needs for sustainable water resources and sanitation facilities, especially in places where the worlds most important asset is shrinking from increasing consumption and pollution as well as global warming.

Iran, a country surrounded by three strategic waterways in West Asia, is an example of how a blend of climate change, declining rainfall and impaired environmental policies can produce a chronic, menacing water crisis, depriving thousands of people of drinking water while putting precious biospheres at serious risk of disappearance.

The first UN water conference took place in March 1977, in Mar del Plata, Argentina, and the General Assembly passed a resolution in 2018 to convene a conference in March 2023 to review how well the International Decade for Action Water for Sustainable Development was going. The years 2018-2028 were proclaimed by the UN as the decade for action on water. This months conference, led by the Netherlands and Tajikistan, runs from March 22-24. Results of the scores of meetings with the 6,000 or so participants of member states, world leaders, civil society and others will be summarized informally through a Water Action Agenda, keeping the gathering as apolitical as possible.

This is more than a conference on water, said Secretary-General Antnio Guterres in his opening remarks. It is a conference on todays world seen from the perspective of its most important resource.

The conference, Guterres added, must represent a quantum leap in the capacity of Member States and the international community to recognize and act upon the vital importance of water to our worlds sustainability and as a tool to foster peace and international co-operation.

A quarter of the worlds population, two billion people, use unsafe drinking water. According to Unicef, more than 1,000 children die from diseases associated with unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene every day. Rural communities suffer a disproportionate toll from water inequality, and it is estimated that 8 out of 10 people without access to basic drinking water live in those areas. The global water crisis is particularly impinging on women, most acutely in the poorest countries, where they are doubly vulnerable to water stress and competition over access to resources.

Iran is a stark example of a country suffering from an ingrained water crisis. Situated among three major bodies of water, the country has long reeled from a chronic water problem that experts ascribe to poor environmental management and the failure of the government to enact consistent policies for the optimal consumption and distribution of natural resources. Iran borders the Caspian Sea, Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, and has an edge over some of its landlocked neighbors, such as Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. But Irans inefficient environmental planning has plunged the country into what a leading academic has called water bankruptcy.

If a country is in water bankruptcy mode, its water consumption exceeds its renewable water supply, so essentially what that nation consumes is more than what the nature is allocating to it, said Kaveh Madani, a prominent Iranian environmental scientist, former politician and director of the UN Universitys Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), based in Ontario, Canada.

Then you would see declining groundwater levels, shrinking lakes, wetlands and rivers, desertification, deforestation, dust storms, polluted water, wildfires and so on. Are we seeing these things in Iran? Absolutely, he told PassBlue.

Iran has endured protracted periods of drought, and the reverberations of climate change are compounding its water problem. The Washington-based World Resources Institute ranks Iran as the 13th-most water-stressed nation in the world, even surpassing its landlocked neighbors Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. At the same time, the governments meager investment in extending the water pipeline network to its far-flung areas has left many regions of the country pauperized.

As reported by the government, 17.6 percent of the population in Irans rural areas still dont have access to potable water.

The Iran Meteorological Organization says 97 percent of the country is living through drought to varying degrees, and with decreasing precipitation, experts warn that a water war has erupted in the country, pitting people against each other in a battle over securing access to what is available. From Sept. 23, 2021 to a year later, rainfall dropped 24 percent, compared with the long-term average, and the World Bank ranks Iran as one of the 20 countries globally with the least annual precipitation.

The government has issued far too many permits for individuals and landowners to extract water as it stimulates agriculture, experts say. But since the use of groundwater is contingent on land ownership, a lot of illicit activity has been spurred as well, with proprietors digging wells to use the water in their personal villas and gardens. There are reportedly 350,000 illegal wells across the country and up to 14,000 illegal wells are sealed every year, rapidly depleting the aquifers. In recent decades, inadequate oversight and flawed management have resulted in up to 150 billion cubic meters of static water sources vanishing in Iran.

What has made a bad situation worse is the governments relentless construction of dams to generate reserves for household and industrial use and to push industrial development. It is believed that Iran has constructed nearly 600 dams since the 1979 revolution, making it the third-largest dam builder, after China and Japan. Additionally, 190 more dams may be built. But the lavish projects have often been commissioned by inexperienced contractors, and their defective construction has spawned increased water evaporation, reduced irrigation potential and dampened hydroelectricity production, report local media.

Another major environmental crisis of national proportions has been the desiccation of Lake Urmia, or Lake Oromeeh, in northwestern Iran. Once the largest saltwater lake in the Middle East, the lake used to be a key wildlife habitat and is now a Unesco biosphere reserve. More than 50 dams have been constructed in the wetlands basin, and coupled with endemic drought and lingering neglect, nearly 95 percent of its water has dried up over the last 40 years.

Because of its policies of stringent self-sufficiency, the perception of Iran is that it has refused to attract international cooperation to reverse its environmental woes. Some observers say the absence of such partnerships is the result of sanctions that have long isolated the country from the wider international community. But Madani believes it is the governments own shortcoming in weighting sound environmental management that has triggered the water crisis.

I dont think the problems at home can be really blamed on the lack of relationship with intergovernmental agencies, he said. No foreign entity or foreign government can rescue Iran from water bankruptcy if Iran doesnt decide to prioritize its water and environmental problems.

Still, the UN water conference could be an opportunity for Iran to draw attention to its water crisis and initiate partnerships that can help the country overcome its nearly pariah status that is chipping away at its environmental resilience. The Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia may be a first step to easing Irans unfavorable status quo. Hurt by years of chronic isolation, Iran could use the UN forum to help pull off sustainable change, if it wished, observers say. Yet the website of the Iran mission to the UN lists no information on its participation in the conference.

Guterres said that water, humanitys lifeblood, is in deep trouble.

We are draining humanitys lifeblood through vampiric overconsumption and unsustainable use, and evaporating it through global heating, he said, emphasizing four key areas of action: closing the water management gap, massive investment in water and sanitation systems, redoubling efforts to focus on resilience and treating climate action and the future of sustainable water as two sides of the same coin.

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Iran Has Only Itself to Blame for Its 'Water Bankruptcy,' Some Experts ... - PassBlue

Israeli Premier Due In London To Push For United Front Against Iran –

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu isdue in London to discuss solutions to Irans continued nuclear armament.

The Israeli premier, scheduled to meet with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Home Secretary Suella Braverman on Friday, is slated to depart on Thursday evening.

According to a statement from Netanyahus office, his meetings in London will focus on the need to formulate a united international front against Iran in order to stop its nuclear program.

The leaders will also discuss strengthening strategic ties between Israel and the United Kingdom, including increasing security and intelligence cooperation and the war in Ukraine as well as broad developments in the Middle East.

Earlier in the week, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen was in London to press Jerusalems position about the Islamic Republics threat and bolster bilateral economic ties.

The Israeli diplomat signed an agreement called the 2030 Roadmap for UK-Israeli Bilateral Relations, which according to the British Foreign Office contains detailed commitments for deepening cooperation across the breadth of the Israel-UK relationship, including on trade, cyber, science and tech, research and development, security, health, etc.

Demonstrators face members of the security forces during the "Day of Shutdown", as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist coalition government presses on with its judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel March 23, 2023.

Netanyahus trip to London comes on the heels of his visit last week to Berlin, where he met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and other senior German officials. As he stood with Scholz at the Holocaust memorial Platform 17 in Berlin, Netanyahu appeared to compare Iran with the Nazis.

Seemingly alluding to the Islamic Republic rhetoric which calls for the end of the Zionist regime, he said: The calls to destroy the Jewish people have not ended. The main lesson we have learned is that when we are faced with such evil, we must stop the evil plans early to prevent a disaster."

A senior Israeli official, who spoke to Iran International on condition of anonymity,said Netanyahu's recent visits to Europe aim to convey a strong message that Israel would act alone against Iran and would do whatever it deems necessary against the Islamic Republics nuclear program.

Recent trips to some European countries and meetings with the leaders of these countries are both a message for Europe and a direct message for the Iranian government," the source said, noting that Tehran has "received" this message.

Earlier in the month, Netanyahu met with Italian premier Giorgia Meloni when both called for bolstering bilateral ties. His meeting with Meloni came just after Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a resumption of diplomatic ties, a development that Netanyahu was widely criticized at home for failing to prevent.

On Wednesday, a senior Israeli diplomatic official told Axios that the Israeli government sees the recent agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran not as a threat, but as an opportunity for Israels efforts to normalize relations with the Saudi kingdom.

The official who is directly involved in the efforts said thatthe war in Yemen has been a major "irritant" in US-Saudi relations in recent years, hampering efforts for Israel-Saudi normalization steps. The more relations between the US and Saudi Arabia improve, the easier it will be to work on promoting normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, the official said.

On Wednesday, Israel warned the Biden administration and several European countries that Tehran would be entering dangerous territory that could trigger an Israeli military strike if it enriches uranium above the 60-percent level.

According to an International Atomic Energy Agencyreport from late February, Iran has amassed 87.5 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. Experts sayif uranium is enriched to 90% weapons grade, it would be a sufficient quantity to produce at least one nuclear bomb.

Netanyahu has time and again threatened military action against the Islamic Republics nuclear program as it enriches uranium closer to weapons-grade levels.

On March 9,Netanyahu told Iran Internationalthat Tehran is dangerously moving forward in its nuclear program, claiming that he returned to the government primarily to make sure that Iran cannot become a nuclear threshold power.

The PMs whirlwind of foreign trips is seen by some as a distraction from the civil uprising happening at home as Israelis protest against proposed legal reforms which would make Netanyahu largely unaccountable. It would also give him a clear way out of criminal charges he faces, thoughhe denies all counts.

The exact time and location of his departure is not yet known even to reporters who will be accompanying Netanyahu during the diplomatic visit to London because protesters have vowed to gather at the site and prevent him from boarding the plane.

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Israeli Premier Due In London To Push For United Front Against Iran -

Families Mark Iran New Year At Graveside Of Slain Protesters –

Many families of protesters fallen during the recent anti-government protests marked the New Year (Nowruz) at the side of the graves of their loved ones this year.

My son was a hero. He was martyred for his country Unity is the key to our victory, said Zhila Khakpour in an Instagram post taken at the side of her sons grave at Tehrans Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on Thursday.

Zhilas 25-year-old son, Ali Seyedi, was shot dead by security forces at a protest rally in Parand, a town 30km to the south of the capital Tehran, on November 4. In the video she posted, she felicitated Iranians for the coming of the new Iranian year and thanked them for supporting the family during their ordeal.

Jila Khakpour at her sons grave vowing to avenge his killing.

Everyone says they will avenge you. God willing, we will avenge the bloods of all of you. My darling, I will never let your blood to be trampled on, she says sitting next to the grave and caressing the image of her son engraved on the stone.

Iranians usually visit the graves of their loved ones on the last Thursday of the year. They wash the graves, adorn it with flowers and candles, and distribute sweets and fruits to those visiting the cemetery but this year the visits have continued into the holiday season with people chanting anti-government slogans and vowing to take revenge in several cases.

Local people and family marking the New Year at Mahsa Aminis grave.

Hours before the turn of the year, a large crowd gathered at the grave of Mahsa (Jina) Amini in Saqqez in northwestern Iran. The twenty-two-year-olds death in the custody of the morality police on September 16 sparked a wave of protests across the country that lasted for months.

Videos posted on social media show participants in the ceremony bearing torches and flowers to her grave, singing Kurdish mourning songs and stamping their feet.

People chanting Down with the Dictator at the grave of young chef, Mehrshad Shahidi in Arak

In photos widely shared on social media, a little girl Bavan is seen standing at her mothers grave in Mahabad at Nowruz. The young woman, Fereshteh Ahmadi, was shot in Mahabad on the roof of her house while watching the protests with her little girl. Her grave, like many others in Kurdish areas of Iran, is draped in red tulle and is adorned with red flowers to show that she was martyred.

Some other photos posted on social media show the friends and classmates of the ten-year-old Kian Pourfalak at the side of his grave thousands of kilometers away, in Izeh in southwest Iran, shortly before the turn of the year Monday.

Kian was shot by plainclothesmen in the family car in November during a night of protests in Izeh. His father, Meysam Pirfalk has been confined to a wheelchair after months of hospitalization and several surgeries but his mother, Zeynab Molaei-Rad and his three-year-old brother Radin were unharmed in the attack.

People in Izeh chanting against Khamenei and IRGC at the grave of Kian Pourfalak before the turn of the year.

The government has arrested several citizens it accuses of terrorism for the shooting, but Zeynab insists it was the security forces that killed her son. In a fiery speech at her sons burial, she said she had no doubt about who had shot her family and implicitly accused Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei of responsibility for her young sons killing.

There were dozens of children and teenagers among the over 500 killed during the protests across Iran, either as protesters or bystanders. The deaths of the children caused protesters to dub the regime as child-killer.

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Dtente between Iran and Saudi Arabia sets the agenda of the Gulf … – Atalayar

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is the multilateral platform that provides the backbone for diplomacy in the Arabian Peninsula, an area in full effervescence that sets the agenda in the Middle East. The Arab forum, divided into blocs since the outbreak of the Arab Spring, remains subject to strong internal tensions despite the diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other members of the organisation with Qatar, the fractious partner that promoted the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood after the revolutionary outbreak and built bridges with Turkey and Iran, hostile actors for the group's interests.

The Al-Ula declaration, signed in January 2021 by the six GCC members, served to finally bury the hatchet after the protracted boycott of Qatar. Since then, relations with Doha have improved at all levels. They have done so, albeit unevenly. While the Saudis and Qataris have resumed direct flights, reopened land borders - in fact, the only land border that tiny Qatar has - and re-established diplomatic relations, the Emiratis and Qataris are moving more slowly. On the other hand, rapprochement between Qatar and Bahrain is virtually non-existent.

After Al-Ula, a series of contacts began between Iran and the Gulf states aimed at sealing a period of dtente at the regional level, which would accommodate Iran's interests. The surprise announcement last week from Beijing of the restoration of relations between Tehran and Riyadh was the final blow. Therefore, any message from the Gulf Cooperation Council in the coming months will be decisive in taking the pulse of the process. Expectations are high.

The organisation held an important meeting in Riyadh on Wednesday. The Saudi capital hosted the 155th session of the Council of Ministers, the highest authority of the forum after the Supreme Council, the body reserved for the heads of state of the member countries. Its quarterly meetings, except in emergencies and rare exceptions, serve to outline the organisation's policies for the immediate future. Decisions are then passed to the Supreme Council, which is ultimately responsible for their approval.

The Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Bahrain and Oman took centre stage at the summit. The latter, Sayyid Badr Al-Busaidi, chaired the meeting, which was also attended by the organisation's secretary general, Kuwait's Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi. The head of Omani diplomacy, who led the preliminary negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, welcomed the China-sponsored bilateral thaw. "This agreement represents an important step in the context of the common goals of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," he told his counterparts.

"The Council expressed its hope that this agreement will constitute a positive step towards resolving differences and putting an end to all regional disputes through dialogue and diplomatic means," said the organisation's final statement, which recognised "the value of the mediation efforts" that had been made before China by both the Sultanate of Oman and Iraq, in both cases without success. But the Asian giant is not satisfied with that and intends to organise a summit between Iran and the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in the short term, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Yemen is the only country on the Arabian Peninsula that is not a member of the group. The evolution of the war will depend to a large extent on the recomposition of Iranian-Saudi relations. Tehran has pledged to persuade the Houthis to de-escalate the confrontation. But the Arab organisation, led by Riyadh, remains unwavering in its stance on Yemen. "The Council affirmed its full support for the Presidential Leadership Council [the internationally recognised Yemeni government] and its supporting entities to achieve security and stability," the statement said, calling on the Iranian-backed rebels to "respond to the requests of the Presidential Leadership Council to negotiate under UN supervision with the aim of reaching a political solution".

Another stumbling block to reshaping relations between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council will be the dispute over the islands of Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb. The Arab organisation again condemned "the Iranian occupation of the three islands under the sovereignty of the United Arab Emirates" and called on the Islamic Republic to abandon the three islands, and to relinquish territorial waters, airspace, the continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone, as well as to resolve the dispute through "direct negotiations" or through the International Court of Justice.

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Dtente between Iran and Saudi Arabia sets the agenda of the Gulf ... - Atalayar