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The on-again, off-again talks between Iran and western powers over Tehrans nuclear program have stalled yet again due to disagreements between the two sides.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has blamed Iran for killing an opportunity to come back to the negotiating table and maintained the talks were no longer a priority for the Biden administration.

Iran, meanwhile, seems to be inching closer to being able to actually build a nuclear weapon.

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have said Iran had enriched uranium up to 84%, just short of the 90% required for a bomb.

And General Mark Milley, the US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress in late March that Iran could have enough fissile material to make a bomb in less than two weeks and a nuclear weapon itself within several months.

Given these developments, is there any room left for an agreement?

Over the past two years, both the US and European Union have been resolute in their efforts to revive the nuclear deal that had been scrapped by then-US President Donald Trump in 2018, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

However, Western attempts have yet to bear fruit, reportedly due to the maximalist demands made by the Iranians, including removing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the US list of foreign terror organisations.

Despite this, the EU believes the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action remains the only way for addressing Irans nuclear program. The US, despite de-prioritising the talks, is also not willing to officially announce the death of the deal.

This tunnel vision, however, seems to ignore the changes that have taken place since 2015, as well as the more general pattern of decision-making in Iran.

Although backers of the deal often argue it has significantly restricted Irans nuclear capabilities, Tehrans nuclear program has actually expanded in just two years. And recently, a news outlet affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards made it clear that Iran cannot close its doors to the scientific methods of making a bomb for rational reasons.

Now, the big question is what Irans leaders will do next. The CIA director, William Burns, said in February that he believes Irans Supreme Leader has not yet made a decision on building nuclear weapons.

So, what is the Iranian leadership thinking? To answer a question like this, the pattern of decision-making in Irans history is a critical factor that has widely been ignored.

Since the 1979 revolution, Iranian leaders have exhibited a cautious and slow approach to making major decisions.

This protracted process of decision-making in Iran is rooted in anxiety about the long-term survival of the regime, which has been grappling with a range of internal and external threats over the past four decades.

For instance, it took eight years for the Islamic Republic to accept the ceasefire and peace talks with Iraq following their war in the 1980s.

In addition, Iranian authorities took a decade to be ready for serious negotiations on a nuclear agreement with the US and other global powers, following the disclosure of the countrys nuclear program in 2003.

Moreover, while Iran first suggested a look to the East policy in the mid-2000s under then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the country didnt begin developing major policies in this direction until 2015. This has included military cooperation with Russia in both Syria and now Ukraine and a long-term economic, military and security agreement with China.

However, building nuclear weapons would certainly be the most consequential strategic decision by the Iranian leadership since the 1979 revolution.

So far, the slow process of decision-making in the Iranian leadership has played a significant role in hindering the weaponisation of the nuclear program.

And this limitation of the leadership could provide western powers with an opportunity, given the ongoing protests currently roiling the country.

The months-long protests erupted following the death of a woman in the custody of the morality police last year, hastening the decline of the regimes legitimacy inside the country and bringing new rounds of sanctions from the international community.

If western countries abandon their obsession over the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and continue to support the Iranian people in their protests through diplomatic and economic pressure, it will send a powerful signal to Irans leaders: the threats to the regimes existence are not limited to military factors, but also increasingly come from within the country.

It is important to note that amid the protests, Iranian officials and hardliner media have frequently stressed the nuclear deal is not dead and negotiations are ongoing, even though most of them had previously opposed any deal with the West.

This indicates the Islamic Republic would not be ready for the risks that the demise of the nuclear talks could bring namely, even fiercer protests from the public if it caused another economic shock.

Therefore, the longer the balance of power between the Iranian people and government remains unsettled, the more unlikely it is the regime will make a firm decision on nuclear weapons in the near term.

Consequently, this will provide the West with powerful leverage to secure a more robust and effective agreement in the long term.

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Read more here:
With Iran purportedly capable of making a nuclear bomb in a matter of months, what will its leaders do next? - The Conversation

Iranian authorities have said they will begin to identify and arrest women who ignore the mandatory hijab rules from next weekend in a bid to clamp down on women not covering their hair in public.

Since the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was arrested by the morality police for allegedly not wearing her headscarf properly last September, one thing has changed in Iran: More and more women are out in public without veils.

This is despite it being a legal requirement under Iran's Islamic government.

For months, Iranian authorities have ignored violations of the deeply unpopular hijab law -- for fear of provoking further unrest -- but this is about to stop as discontent grows amongst hardliners.

The Ministry of the Interior recently called on citizens to reprimand women without hijabs, while the police chief has announced stricter measures to use video surveillance to identify those who violate the rules.

Under new plans, women who violate the rules will be taken to court andshop and restaurant owners who allow unveiled women to enter will be threatened with closure. Nevertheless, more and more women in Iran no longer want to submit to the strict dress codes.

Watch the video above to find out more.

Read the original post:
Iran to take harsher actions against women without hijab - Euronews

As Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi prepares to visit Saudi Arabia, AFP looks back at key moments in the relationship:

- 1979: Iran revolution -

When Iranian revolutionaries overthrow the US-backed shah in 1979 and form an Islamic republic, Sunni-led governments in the region accuse the Shiite state of seeking to "export" its revolution.

In 1980, Saddam Hussein's secular but Sunni-dominated regime in Iraq attacks neighbouring Iran, triggering an eight-year war in which oil-rich Saudi, a key US ally, supports Baghdad.

In July 1987, Saudi security forces in Mecca -- the holiest site in Islam -- crack down on an anti-US protest by Iranian pilgrims. More than 400 people are killed.

Demonstrators ransack the Saudi embassy in Tehran and, in April 1988, Riyadh breaks off diplomatic relations for several years.

From 2011 on, Iran and Saudi back opposing sides in Syria's civil war.

Tehran supports President Bashar al-Assad with military forces and funds, whereas Riyadh backs Sunni rebels but also joins a US-led coalition to fight Sunni extremists from the Islamic State group.

Saudi Arabia and Iran also take opposing sides in the Yemen war.

In 2015, a Saudi-led coalition launches a seven-year campaign of air strikes against the Iran-backed Huthi rebels who seized the capital Sanaa.

In January 2016, Saudi Arabia executes prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, a driving force behind anti-government protests, on "terrorism" charges.

Protesters attack Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran, and Riyadh again severs ties.

In November 2017, Saudi-backed Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announces his resignation, citing Iran's "grip" on his country through the Shiite militant group Hezbollah.

Saudi Arabia is widely suspected of forcing his resignation, which he later recants.

In June 2017, Saudi Arabia and its allies sever ties with the tiny gas-rich Gulf monarchy of Qatar and impose a blockade on it, accusing Doha of being too close to Iran and backing extremism.

Under US pressure, Riyadh ends the embargo three years later.

In a surprise move, on March 10, 2023, Tehran and Riyadh announce Chinese-brokered plans to resume ties after seven years.

Days later, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi receives an invitation from Saudi Arabia's King Salman to visit.

On April 6, the Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers hold talks in Beijing, where they pledge to work together to bring "security and stability" to the Middle East.

On April 9, a Saudi delegation visits the Yemeni capital Sanaa to negotiate a new truce between the ousted government and Huthi rebels, raising hopes of a possible end to the war.

On April 9 and 12, Saudi and Iranian delegations visit each others' capitals to discuss reopening their respective diplomatic missions.

On April 12, Syria's foreign minister visits Saudi Arabia for the first high-level talks between Riyadh and the Iran-backed Syrian regime since the Syrian war started.

The aim of the visit is to "achieve a complete political settlement" to the Syrian crisis and to "bring back Syria to its Arab fold," the Saudi foreign ministry says.

Link:
Iran and Saudi Arabia: rivals seeking to restore ties - FRANCE 24 English

Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was said to hold a parade in support of the Palestinians on Thursday.

According to various Iranian state media, this is the biggest parade of the authority of the naval mobilization of the IRGC Navy... in support of the Palestinian people... on the shores of the Persian Gulf, the Oman Sea, and the Caspian Sea.

According to the claims, the stunt was expected to have involved some 2,500 boats and floating vessels from a whole plethora of IRGC-linked units, including the Basij. Tasnim News said the sea parade was in support of the Palestinian people and the cause of the liberation of Jerusalem.

The various events reportedly took place in the countries of the axis of resistance and on the coasts of Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq, presumably meaning that Hamas participated from Gaza, claiming it is doing this in Palestine.

According to earlier reports, the IRGC Navy was expected to send its vessels, which usually include hundreds of fast boats of varying type and quality, some of which have been recently outfitted with drones and other weapons. The IRGC Navy generally surpasses the actual Iranian Navy in terms of its support from the regime and its role in regime activities, often operating in the Persian Gulf, where it has harassed vessels in the past.

Iranian state media additionally claimed that according to the IRGC Navys public relations, Rear-Admiral Alireza Tangsiri said that the maritime parade will be held on April 13 in the northern and southern coastal regions of the country as well as in a number of ports around the world. He said this was to defend the [oppressed] people of Palestine, support their intifada and condemn the heinous and cruel crimes of the Zionist regime. The largest popular parade by the vessels of the IRGC Navys Basij is planned for 15:30 on Thursday.

Iran put out various statements tying together the parade of vessels with outrage at Israels activities in Jerusalem. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has said that Iran wants to show off an effective and deterrent action against Israel.

This all comes as Iran takes part in meetings with Russia and China in Uzbekistan, the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad meets in Baghdad with officials, and also as the pro-Iranian Nujaba movement in Iraq threatened Israel with drone attacks in a propaganda video.

Though these parades serve as propaganda, they also exhibit fresh Iranian capabilities. The fact that Iran was openly planning this for various countries shows that even as it reconciles with Saudi Arabia, it intends to continue to use Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza as threatening boards against Israel.

The coastlines of these areas add up to a large arc of Iranian influence. Recent moves by Iran in Iraq and Syria point to Iran shifting focus to those countries, and away from the Houthis in Yemen. The naval parade shows off a power Iran generally lacks, which means it does not generally have a very large navy, and neither do its proxies or allies.

Read more:
Irans pro-Palestinian naval stunt extends arc of coastline influence - The Jerusalem Post

Perusing global media coverage of the skirmishes on our northern and southern borders this month, I am struck by the fact that few outlets focus on Iranian aggression. Instead, the story has played out as a clash between Israel and Syria or between Israel and Hamas.

This is a serious error in analysis that belies a deeper and more dangerous trend, which is the tendency of Western observers to ignore the root of so much evil in the region: The Islamic Republic of Iran.

In fact, it continually surprises me that public figures I meet who are visiting from North America and Europe truly are not aware of the scope of Iranian muckraking and troublemaking in the region. Generally, they know that there are bad actors at play out there, from Al Qaeda and ISIS to Hezbollah but they dont have a comprehensive picture of Iranian belligerence and ambition or the transformative, tectonic threat of Iran to Mideast and even global stability.

If anything, they often think that the JCPOA (United States president Barack Obamas nuclear deal with Iran) is still in place, shunting concerns about Iran to the backburner and that the ayatollahs now are placidly focusing on rebuilding their society and economy.

But of course, nothing could be farther from the truth. Iran is on an aggressive march across the Middle East, presenting significant security challenges to Israel, moderate Sunni Arab countries and Western interests. Iran does not hide its overarching revolutionary ambitions: to export its brand of radical Islamism globally, dominate the region and destroy Israel.

SO, FOR the purposes of briefing those who have not been paying sufficient attention, here is a summary of the treacherous Iranian record.

Iran is carving out a corridor of control a Shiite land bridge stretching from the Arabian (Persian) Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea, including major parts of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, under the control of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force, various Shiite militias and the Hezbollah organization. This corridor gives Iran a broad strategic base for aggression across the region.

Iran is establishing air and naval bases on the Mediterranean, the Red Sea and especially in Syria to project regional power. It has also stepped up its harassment of international shipping and Western naval operations in the Persian Gulf. Iranian UAV attacks have claimed innocent lives, such as British and Romanian civilians killed in the attack on the Mercer Street oil tanker off the coast of Oman. Iranian UAVs and missiles endanger civilian flights across the region, too.

Iran is inserting militia forces into many regional conflicts, including support for the Houthi rebels in the Yemeni civil war. It seeks control of the Horn of Africa and the entrance to the Red Sea a critical strategic chokepoint on international shipping.

Iran is fomenting subversion in Middle East counties that are Western allies, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. It remains to be seen whether the recent, tentative rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh, brokered by China, will temper this. It is particularly focused on destabilizing the Hashemite regime in Jordan to gain access to Israels longest border (its border with Jordan) and from there to penetrate Israels heartland.

Iran is threatening Israel with war and eventual destruction. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, regularly refers to Israel as a cancerous tumor in the Middle East that must be removed and speaks of the complete liberation of Palestine (meaning the destruction of Israel) through holy jihad.

Israel and Iran essentially have been in a war of stealth since the early 1980s (when Hezbollah was formed) but now Iranian generals and military forces have decamped on Israels border with Syria and moved to direct and open military confrontation with Israel. Israels defense establishment believes that Khamenei has issued direct orders to increase efforts to strike Israeli targets inside Israel and in the West Bank and to increase support for Palestinian terrorist organizations that do so.

Indeed, Iran is arming guerrilla armies on Israels northern border (Hezbollah and most recently, Hamas in Lebanon), the southern border (Hamas and Islamic Jihad) and terrorist undergrounds in the West Bank. It has equipped Hezbollah with an arsenal of over 150,000 missiles and rockets aimed at Israel and has supplied Hamas with the arms and rockets that fueled three significant military confrontations with Israel over the past decade.

Iran has launched several surveillance and attack drones from Syria into Israel and commanded anti-aircraft batteries that fire on Israeli jets (and even felled a $50 million, NIS 182.6 m., F-16I, the first Israeli jet felled by enemy fire in 30 years).

Iran is sponsoring terrorism against Western, Israeli and Jewish targets around the world, including through unambiguous funding, logistical support, planning and personnel for terrorist attacks that span the globe, from Buenos Aires to Burgas. Iran maintains an active terrorist network of proxies, agents and sleeper cells worldwide.

IRAN IS building a long-term nuclear military option, with enrichment and armament facilities buried deep underground. According to the IAEA, Iran has enriched uranium to near-bomb-ready levels (84%, which is very close to the 90% level necessary for a nuclear weapon) and is accumulating such weapons-grade uranium for the production of an estimated five nuclear weapons within three months. According to intelligence assessments, this could be in place within two years.

Like his predecessors, US President Joe Biden has pledged that he will never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. But his chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, hinted to Congress last month of a dramatic shift in administration policy. He said that the US only remains committed Iran will not have a fielded nuclear weapon. This suggests that the Biden administration is now prepared to tolerate developed nuclear weapons in Irans hands, provided the weapon is not fielded, in other words, deployed.

Iran is developing a formidable long-range missile arsenal of great technological variability, including solid and liquid propellant ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and ICBMs. The entire Iranian ballistic missile program is in violation of United Nations Security Council prohibitions.

Three years ago, Tehran fired ballistic missiles with considerable accuracy at bases housing US troops in Iraq. More than 100 American service members suffered traumatic brain injuries and the consequences could have been even worse had the US not received an advance pinpoint warning from its closest regional ally, Israel.

Last January, Tehrans proxies in Yemen apparently used similar missiles in an attempted strike against a base housing American military forces in the UAE. And at least twice last year, once in March and once in September, Iran launched ballistic missiles at targets in Iraqi Kurdistan, with the latter strike killing 13 people, including one US citizen. Most recently, on March 23 and April 11, Iranian proxies struck US forces in Syria.

These attacks demonstrate the increasing willingness of Tehran and its terrorist proxies to use these weapons to punish and deter action against their regional terror networks. They are part of Irans effort to evict America from the Middle East and coerce US partners into accommodating the Islamic Republic.

The latest Iranian ICBM, the Khorramshahr, seems to be based on the North Korean BM25 missile with a range of 3,500 km. (See Arsenal: Assessing the Islamic Republic of Irans Ballistic Missile Program, by Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, January 2023.)

Iran is providing Russia with armed attack drones for President Vladimir Putins war against Ukraine. Experts presume that in return Iran will be getting sophisticated Russian military technologies, such as aerial defense systems and fighter jets for its wars against Israel and pro-Western Arab regimes in the Middle East.

Overall, Iran is strengthening its ties with Russia and China, toning down its conflict with Saudi Arabia and warming its relations with Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Armenia as part of a unified front against what it calls the Great Satan, America and the Small Satan, Israel.

As all this happens, the US is beset by political polarization, economic mismanagement and an apparent loss of will. US political and social coherence is in question and as a result, so is its deterrent power. At the moment, some would say the same about Israel.

As Prof. Walter Russell Mead writes, America shrugs (at challengers like China and Iran), so world leaders make other plans (like partnering with China and Iran).

What is sorely missing is a strategy to combat the malign influence and hegemonic ambitions of the mullahs.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for Zionist Strategy and National Security. The views expressed here are his own. His diplomatic, defense, political and Jewish world columns over the past 26 years are archived at davidmweinberg.com.

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Reawakening to the Iranian threat - opinion - The Jerusalem Post