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Contradictory reports have been circulating amid the ambiguity around why rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon and who launched them. Hezbollah sources have said that it had not been informed about the operation, claiming the rockets were fired by Hamas in retaliation to Israels assault on worshipers in Al-Aqsa Mosque and that the incident does not change the rules of engagement in South Lebanon.

Despite Israel retaliating in Lebanon and escalating its daily strike on the Hezbollah bases in Syria, the party kept quiet and avoided escalation. In turn, Al-Manar TV defended Hezbollahs silence as the correct course of action. It argued that keeping tight-lipped is a strategy of psychological warfare that intimidates the Israel enemy as they sleep in shelters in anticipation of what the party might do.

Everyone knows that Hezbollah has total, unfettered control over South Lebanon. The party even determines the scope of the United Nations Multinational Force In Lebanons (UNIFIL) field of operation. When the UNIFIL goes beyond the boundaries set by Hezbollah, the party incites attacks by its supporters, as happened in January 2022, when unidentified men intercepted a UNIFIL patrol in Bint Jbeil, beating UNIFIL forces on patrol and setting fire to their vehicles.

They justified the assault with claims that the patrol was filming in the area. Meanwhile, UNIFIL Command said that the patrol had accidentally strayed from its course. And a similar attack was witnessed last December, when an Irish member of the UNIFIL forces was killed. Once again, the pretext was that his patrol had been filming - a claim the UNIFIL spokesperson denied.

It is also a well-established fact the Lebanese army coordinates all of its operations in the South with the military leadership of Hezbollah. Indeed, the Lebanese remember very well the martyrdom of First Lieutenant Samer Hanna. The party shot a rocket at the pilots helicopter because it was passing over the town of Sujud, which lies within an area that Hezbollah has declared off-limits to aircraft. Former President Michel Aoun justified the attack egregiously, asking why the martyred First Lieutenant had been flying over this area.

Thus, claims that Hamas or any other group could have fired 34 rockets at Israel without Hezbollahs knowledge are untenable. Hezbollah was either implicated in the attack or, if its claims are to be believed, suffered a serious security breach.

Here, we should keep in mind the reports that Haniyehs decision to launch Hamas rockets from Lebanon followed a meeting with Nasrallah over iftar that brought them together with Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani and the Iranian Ambassador to Beirut, Mojtaba Amani. So, what does Hezbollah hope to achieve from this incident?

Sources in contact with the Axis of Resistance in Lebanon have stressed that the party is apprehensive about the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The party leadership had not been informed about its imminence, and Hezbollah is alarmed by the pace at which events have been unfolding since the two countries agreed on the principles of their new relationship under the auspices of China.

Although both Saudi Arabia and Iran are both primarily focused on Yemen, as there is much to be resolved there, we have seen the agreement swiftly precipitate developments on other fronts. There are signs that Syrias isolation from the Arab world is coming to an end, and all of this inevitably implies scaling down the expansion of Hezbollah in Yemen and Syria.

Hezbollah is aware that in this event, Iran will probably change the nature of the partys operations after having used it to fight for the Velayat-e Faqih across the region. The reason is simple. There will be no Iranian-Saudi conflict, and a great power, China, will guarantee this peace. Thus, Hezbollah wanted to send messages to its leaders in Iran. It let them know that it would not pay the price for the Saudi-Iranian agreement and that, at any moment, it could turn the tables and set the region alight by sparking a war with Israel, whose outcome and repercussions would be impossible to predict.

Media outlets associated with the Axis of Resistance depicting images of Hassan Nasrallah receiving Ismail Haniyeh signaled that the Hamas missiles were his. However, Benjamin Netanyahu hit back at Haniyeh and Nasrallah swiftly. On Monday evening, Netanyahu warned that he would not allow Hamas to establish a base in South Lebanon.

Will this threat be enough for caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who merely assured the Lebanese that the faction behind the rockets fired from the Lebanese Qulaileh region is not Lebanese, without telling us who had informed him of this fact? Was it a Lebanese party? Did boy scouts, for example, inform Mikati of who had been behind the missiles? Did pigeons land, fire the missiles, and fly away?

Najib Mikati tasked Lebanons Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib with filing a complaint with the Security Council against Israel for attacking Lebanon! In this sense, it was Israel that informed Lebanon of who had fired the missiles, cornering the caretaker prime minister. He and the republics policeman, Abdullah Bou Habib, did the right thing; when Israel bombards the country, the solution will be in their pockets.

For his part, Hassan Nasrallah should know that the region will inevitably change and that it will do so very rapidly. Meanwhile, Hezbollah cannot wrap its head around these changes, let alone prevent them. Accordingly, its confusion will continue to engender blunders domestically.

Tehran will probably not account for the repercussions, as a burden has been removed from its shoulders. Indeed, Iran is now looking forward to a new stage, which it hopes will see sanctions scaled down.

In fact, this new stage has already begun. According to recent reports, Iran and Russia are in discussions to increase trade through the Caspian Sea, with senior officials from both countries exploring different options for increasing the volume of goods shipped through .

During a meeting held in Tehran last Sunday, the Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bezrpash and Russias Igor Levitin, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, discussed bilateral cooperation to boost trade by air, sea, land, and rail. Discussing the long history of cooperation in maritime trade between Iran and Russia, the Iranian minister underlined the need for both countries to benefit from other countries ports to facilitate their bilateral trade as well.

He also said that, for the first time in 21 years, the massive Russian Ro-Ro ship docked in the Port of Nowshahr (northern Iran) last April, adding that he believes this is a major step in augmenting maritime trade between the two countries.

Earlier on in his stay in Tehran, Levitin held a meeting with the Iranian First Vice President, Mohammad Mokhber. On Saturday, they discussed work on the strategically significant International North-South Transport Corridor.

During this meeting, Levitin said that Iran and Russia could be turned into regional centers for the export of foodstuffs through joint projects between the countries. Will Nasrallah dare to put a stick in the wheels of these Iranian-Russian initiatives to please Ismail Haniyeh, or is he being asked to do so?!

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Huda al-Husseini - Will Iran Succeed in Changing How Hezbollah ... - Asharq Al-awsat - English

The United Arab Emirates is the latest in a wave of Gulf countries that have signed normalization agreements with Iran, as the region seeks to make amends amid U.S. disengagement and elevated tensions. Following Saudi Arabias surprise trilateral agreement last month with Iran and China that put both regional foes on track to normalize relations, [] This article is for subscribers only.

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The UAEs Debacle With Iran and Israel - Geopolitical Futures

Many were surprised when Iran accepted Chinas mediation and appeared to seek peace and reconciliation with Saudi Arabia. Without discounting Chinas diplomatic achievement, Iran had its own reasons.At the start of 2023, Irans economic outlook appeared bleak, with widespread protests at home and growing isolation abroad. While its neighbors were growing rapidly, Iran had stagnated. The failure to revive the nuclear deal meant there was no relief in sight from US sanctions; on the contrary, more sanctions were piling up as a result of Irans intervention in the Ukraine war. That there were no prospects for regional peace meant that foreign investment was not forthcoming. The government was out of tricks to deal with popular discontent and policymakers at the highest levels knew that.Iran was on track for stagflation minimal to no real growth combined with high unemployment and high inflation of about 50 percent. More than half of Iranians were living below the poverty line, according to official figures. The rial was trading at more than 420,000 to the dollar, hitting a record low of 447,000 on Jan. 21. By comparison, it traded at 70 to the dollar prior to the 1979 revolution.On Jan. 30, Irans Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressed the nation and criticized his governments failed policies. He admitted in a televised speech that Irans economy was a decade behind, saying that the economy stagnated between 2011 and 2021, referring to many negative indicators showing this. Borrowing some of the opposition phraseology, he added: These are reliable indicators from official organizations and are not just empty claims. He called the high unemployment among young professionals a disgrace, blaming it for their high rate of emigration. He attributed the sluggishness to exogenous factors, such as sanctions and fluctuating oil prices, but admitted that poor government management and overregulation were to blame. Surprisingly, he cited the over-focus on the nuclear program as one of the contributing factors to Irans poor performance.On youth unemployment, Khamenei said that the country can no longer take pride in the growing numbers of university graduates because it cannot provide them with jobs, making it a disgrace instead of an honor.He lambasted government red tape and the arbitrary interventions of regulatory and non-regulatory institutions. Khamenei called for sustained economic growth over the medium and long terms. We must concentrate our efforts for at least seven, eight or 10 years, he said, with a focus on knowledge-based companies and job creation.

Interventions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen have been devastating to those countries but also costly to Iran.

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

The unusual public rebuke of the government was likely meant to deflect criticism directed at the government by protesters. Khameneis choice of 2011 as the starting date of Irans malaise was interesting because it coincided with the change in Irans regional policies following the so-called Arab Spring. It may indicate a long-overdue reckoning about the devastating effects at home of Tehrans overreach in neighboring countries since 2011.Interventions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen have been devastating to those countries but also costly to Iran. Instead of adding to its prestige, they have lowered Irans international standing and soured its relations with the Arab world. More importantly for a domestic audience, they have deprived the Iranian people of the resources they need to have a decent standard of living.Instead of growing as their neighbors have, Iranians have seen their standard of living stagnate. Post COVID-19, the Gulf has been the fastest-growing region in the world, while Iran bucked that trend. In 2022, the GCC countries grew at a clip rate of 6.4 percent on average and saw their combined gross domestic product exceed $2 trillion for the first time. Iran, by contrast, struggled to return to pre-pandemic levels of growth, with its nominal GDP registering a mere $407 billion in 2022, according to the World Bank, or 20 percent of that of the GCC. The per capita comparison is even bleaker. With a population of 84 million, per capita GDP in Iran was $4,809 in 2022, less than 15 percent of the average per capita income in the GCC states.The little growth that Iran managed post-COVID-19, aided by rising oil prices, was nearly wiped out by the high inflation rate of about 50 percent, compared to an average of 3.7 percent in the GCC countries, and by currency depreciation, which made imports more expensive. Labor participation rates have declined and unemployment among university graduates has risen, especially among women, whose unemployment rate exceeded 25 percent, no doubt contributing to the intensity of the women-led protests that have engulfed the country since last September.While the protests in Iran have their roots in other issues, such as undue restrictions on women, economic discontent certainly plays a role. Khamenei mentioned some of the sources of that dissatisfaction and there are many more. Led by the so-called Generation Z, or Zoomers, the protesters have frequently cited failed government economic and social policies and bemoaned Irans falling behind compared to its neighbors and the rest of the world.While Irans apparent change in regional policy is welcome, it has to go beyond tactics or the resumption of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia. For Iran to return to the fold and benefit from the synergies of regional integration, the changes have to go further. One of the main issues for the region and the rest of the world is the commitments Tehran made in the joint statements it issued with Saudi Arabia in Beijing on March 10 and again on April 6, including respect for the rules of conduct between states, namely respect for international law and the UN Charter.The people of the Middle East, including Iranians, will reap the benefits of detente and de-escalation, if not peace and integration, when the nations of this region focus their energies on making peace and achieving prosperity, instead of the endless and nihilistic wars waged for the past four decades, which have drained their resources and sown enmity and hate between their peoples.

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views.

Twitter: @abuhamad1

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What is behind the change in Iran's regional tactics? - Arab News

The United States expressed concern Monday about the strengthening of ties between Russia and Iran.

It should be a concern for countries not just neighboring Russia and Iran, but the world broadly, deputy State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters at a briefing.

We have seen the havoc caused by Iranian-made drones that Russia has unleashed on Kyiv, targeting energy and civilian infrastructure, so of course this relationship is one that we are paying close attention to, Patel added.

Russia has used Iranian-made Shahed drones to carry out widespread aerial attacks on Ukraine during its full-scale invasion.

The tactic, which includes crashing the drones into targets, led Ukrainian officials to ask for anti-drone missiles to knock them out of the sky.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing sources familiar with the matter, that at the same time as the expansion of military cooperation between Iran and Russia, the Russian government is helping Iran achieve advanced digital surveillance capabilities.

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US Concerned About Russia-Iran Partnership - Voice of America - VOA News

BEIRUT (AP) Iran-backed fighters were on alert in eastern Syria on Saturday, a day afte r U.S. forces launched retaliatory airstrikes on sites in the war-torn country, opposition activists said. The airstrikes came after a suspected Iran-made drone killed a U.S. contractor and wounded six other Americans on Thursday.

The situation was calm following a day in which rockets were fired at bases housing U.S. troops in eastern Syria. The rockets came after U.S. airstrikes on three different areas in Syrias eastern province of Deir el-Zour, which borders Iraq, opposition activists said.

While its not the first time the U.S. and Iran have traded strikes in Syria, the attack and the U.S. response threaten to upend recent efforts to deescalate tensions across the wider Middle East, whose rival powers have made steps toward dtente in recent days after years of turmoil.

In the first Syrian comment since the attacks occurred, the foreign ministry condemned the U.S. strikes saying they are a flagrant violation of Syrias sovereignty. The ministry added in a statement that Damascus aims to end American occupation and spread government control over all parts of the country.

The calm continues as Iran-backed militiamen are on alert out of concern of possible new airstrikes, said Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor.

Omar Abu Layla, an activist from Deir el-Zour who is currently in the U.S. and runs a group that monitors developments in east Syria, said Iran-backed fighters have evacuated some of their posts and moved into trenches in case of any more American strikes. They are in a state of alert, he said.

President Joe Biden said Friday that the U.S. would respond forcefully to protect its personnel after U.S. forces retaliated with airstrikes on sites in Syria used by groups affiliated with Irans Revolutionary Guard. The strikes followed an attack Thursday by a suspected Iran-made drone that killed a U.S. contractor and wounded five American servicemembers and a U.S. contractor.

The United States does not, does not seek conflict with Iran, Biden said in Ottawa, Canada, where he was on a state visit. But he said Iran and its proxies should be prepared for the U.S. to act forcefully to protect our people. Thats exactly what happened last night. Activists said the U.S. bombing killed at least four people.

In Iran, domestic media outlets quoted a spokesman for the nations Supreme National Security Council, Keivan Khosravi, as saying that Tehran would immediately respond to any U.S. attack on Iranian bases in Syria.

Any excuses-seeking attitude for attack on bases that are established at the request of the Syrian government, will immediately face an answer, Khosravi was quoted as saying. Khosravi rejected U.S charges that Iran is behind attacks on American bases in Syria, suggesting they are attacks against illegal occupation of part of Syria.

A statement issued late Friday by the Iranian Consultative Center in Syria warned the U.S. not to carry out further strikes in Syria. Otherwise, we will have to retaliate. It warned that it will not be a simple revenge.

The center, which speaks on behalf of Tehran in Syria, said the U.S. airstrikes targeted places used to store food products and other service centers in Deir el-Zour. It said the strike killed seven people and wounded seven others without giving the nationalities of the dead. An official with an Iran-backed group in Iraq said the strikes killed seven Iranians.

The Observatory raised the death toll from the U.S. strikes to 19, saying they were killed in three locations, including an arms depot in the Harabesh neighborhood in the city of Deir el-Zour, and two military posts near the towns of Mayadeen and Boukamal.

Iran-backed militia groups and Syrian forces control the area, which also has seen suspected airstrikes by Israel in recent months allegedly targeting Iranian supply routes.

According to U.S. officials, two simultaneous attacks were launched at U.S. forces in Syria late Friday. Officials said that based on preliminary information, there was a rocket attack on the Conoco plant, where U.S. troops are stationed, and one U.S. service member was wounded but is in stable condition. At about the same time, several drones were launched at Green Village, in Deir el-Zour province where U.S. troops are also based. One official said all but one of the drones were shot down, and there were no U.S. injuries there. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military operations.

Irans paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been suspected of carrying out attacks with bomb-carrying drones across the wider Middle East.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the American intelligence community had determined the drone in Thursdays attack was of Iranian origin, but offered no other immediate evidence to support the claim. The drone hit a coalition base in the northeast Syrian city of Hasakeh.

Iran relies on a network of proxy forces throughout the Mideast to counter the U.S. and Israel, its arch regional enemy. The U.S. has had forces in northeast Syria since 2015, when they deployed as part of the fight against the Islamic State group, and maintains some 900 troops there, working with Kurdish-led forces that control around a third of Syria.

The exchange of strikes came as Saudi Arabia and Iran have been working toward reopening embassies in each others countries. The kingdom also acknowledged efforts to reopen a Saudi embassy in Syria, whose embattled President Bashar Assad has been backed by Iran in his countrys long war.

The State Department said in a statement Saturday that they have been in contact with Saudi officials about their approach to the region, including with Syria adding that Washingtons stance against normalization with Assads government remains unchanged, and we have been clear about this.

The State Department said the U.S.s consistent message to regional partners who are engaging with the Syrian government has been that credible steps to improve the situation for the Syrian people should be front and center in any engagement.

According to officials, Iran has launched 80 attacks against U.S. forces and locations in Iraq and Syria since January 2021. The vast majority of those have been in Syria.

The U.S. under Biden has struck Syria previously over tensions with Iran in February and June of 2021, as well as August 2022.

Syrias conflict that began in 2011 has left nearly half a million people dead.

___

Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran and Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates and Albert Aji in Damascus, Syria contributed to this report.

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Iran-backed fighters on alert in east Syria after US strikes - The Associated Press