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Some observers in Iran say that the society has been "radicalized" because of recent protests which were the product of the authoritarian political system.

In an interview with the reformist daily Shargh, sociologist Maghsud Farasatkhah said that the government needs to find answers to a set of urgent national problems including water shortage, capital flight, emigration of human resources, increase in poverty, diminishing economic stability, gender, ethnic and social inequality, and so on.

"But currently, the government has reduced politics to the unilateral omission of 'others' to reinforce its political power," he said, adding that ignoring the need for dialogue has led all politics into an impasse.

Farasatkhah added that a ruling class should come to power by trying to satisfy the aspirations of the people, but this is ignored in Iran, as all decisions are made by an elite whose relations with the rest of the society can be defined as "patriarchal."

Sociologist Maghsud Farasatkhah

By the word "elite," Farasatkhah means a group of non-elected politicians loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, or those who have been elected to positions through a system of biased candidate vetting that merely serves the leader's interests.

According to Farasatkhah, this elite operates via non-transparent and non-accountable institutions in which there are no checks and balances. This will inevitably bring about a conflict between rulers and society. Examples of this are disagreements between the government and the people, such as compulsory hijab. What is prohibited by the government is permissible in the eyes of the nation. The same duality and conflict also exist in many other areas such as the unrestricted access to the Internet, sports, art, education, and so on.

The unrepresentative elite tries to force its views on the people and deny them personal and political freedoms.

In such a situation, when the people are not allowed to take part in politics, they turn into masses, and masses sometimes act as populist politicians and propagandists want them to act. Farasatkhah said that the society currently acts like a mass which is easily overwhelmed by events in Iran and the world. Any incident can potentially upturn the situation, and this is a cause for concern. "I am worried about the future and stability of the society as eventually the people will be the losers in the chain of events.

Farasatkhah said that the way out of this situation is turn the masses back into a society in which vocational, civil, local, and public institutions could be activated to empower the society, make it rational and rob the populists of their leverage.

However, many dissidents and critics might label Farasatkhas recommendations as wishful thinking within the ideology and structure of the current regime. Nice ideas have been around in Iran for decades, but the regime has prevented all reforms.

In another interview in the same issue of Shargh, Expediency Council member and a long-time regime insider, Majid Ansari said he can see signs that a part of the government has noticed the threats and understood the need for a review of current policies. Ansari is concerned about the threats but is willing to offer his way out of the problem.

Expediency Council member and a long-time regime insider, Majid Ansari

Ansari, an aide to the de facto leader of reformists in Iran, former President Mohammad Khatami, said that current protests has put regime politicians and political groups in all factions to test. He acknowledged the people's disillusionment about the factions but still believes that there are still ways to restore people's trust in political groups and even the government.

Iranian protesters have been saying that there is no big difference between the hardliner and reformist factions of the regime and they do not believe in that dichotomy any longer. Regime change, they say, is the only way to resolve the many crises Iran faces.

Ansari also acknowledged that the all-conservative government in Iran has led to "a relative political impasse," but he believes that admitting the mistakes made during the past years and using collective wisdom to make things right will put the nation back on the right track.

However, he did not say why Iran was not able to get on the right track in 44 years since the establishment of the Islamic Republic.

Ansari's solution is mainly based on holding free and fair elections, but doing so requires changes to the constitution or the combination of institutions linked to Khamenei, including the Guardian Council, and it is not clear who can bring Khamenei to terms with the idea of change as in his latest speech on March 21, he ruled out any change in the constitution and attributed the idea of change to "the enemies."

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Pundits In Iran Look For A Way Out As Regime Digs In -

"In 2022, more people worldwide were on the run than ever before. At the same time, millions took to the streets for their rights. People flee and protest because their lives are threatened, because they are oppressed, persecuted, and disenfranchised, and because their human rights are violated," said Markus N. Beeko, the secretary general of Amnesty International's branchin Germany.

Beeko's figures are alarming:Amnesty International documented war crimes and crimes against humanity in 20 of the 156 countries surveyed, including some committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. In 62 countries, governments restricted freedom of assembly, association, and expression. And in 79 countries, activists were arbitrarily detained, many of them tortured and abused.

But there are plenty of developments that give cause for hope, according to Beeko. "The courage and perseverance of the people who are taking to the streets for freedom and justice, in Iran, Peru, Georgia and elsewhere, is impressive," he said.

"It's also a positive development that states have taken in millions of refugees from Ukraine unbureaucratically," he added. "Moreover, with investigations into human rights abuses in Syria, Myanmar, Ukraine, and Iran, the international community is showing that it wants to hold those responsible accountable."

Whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will ever have to answer to the International Criminal Court is open to question, butit appears that Russia's war against Ukraine would provide enough material for its own Amnesty International report.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a blatant violation of the United Nations Charter, an act of aggression and a crime under international law," said Janine Uhlmannsiek, Europe and Central Asia desk officer at Amnesty International in Germany. "Amnesty International investigators have documented numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Russian forces."

Uhlmannsiek lists among these the indiscriminate attacks on residential areas, hospitals, and schools by the Russian military and the use of indiscriminate weapons such as banned cluster munitions, which have caused thousands of civilian casualties. Amnesty saidthere have also been crimes such as torture, sexual violence, and unlawful killings, and the deportation of large numbers of civilians to Russian-occupied territories or to Russia.

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"In one case documented by Amnesty, an eleven-year-old boy was separated from his mother. We have also documented cases of unaccompanied children being taken from Mariupol to Donetsk," says Uhlmannsiek, referring to parallel policies in Russia: "In the case of children who are either considered orphans or without parental care, the procedure to obtain Russian citizenship has been accelerated. This is to facilitate the adoption of children by Russian families."

All of this, she said, is a deliberatesystematic policy, and part of a comprehensive attack on Ukrainian civilians. The same goes for the use of violence against women, and systematic rape, which is always a feature ofarmed conflicts.

"We were able to talk to a woman who was raped several times by Russian soldiers. The war of aggression has a serious impact on women, girls and marginalized populations in Ukraine and puts their psychological, physical, sexual and reproductive health at risk quite enormously," said Uhlmannsiek. "At the same time, the war also increases the risk of gender-based violence and exacerbates the risk of exploitation."

The human rights situation in Russia itself, already dramatic before February 24, has worsened over the past year, Amnesty said. The government has been relentless in its crackdown on those who oppose the war or report on it independently. Amnesty International counted more than 100 criminal cases on charges of discrediting and at least 180 for knowingly disseminating allegedly false information.

"They face heavy fines and up to 15 years in prison. Last year, in March 2022, new laws were rushed throughthat criminalized the discrediting of the Russian armed forces and the dissemination of alleged false information about the armed forces," says Uhlmannsiek. "In its efforts to conceal the true extent of the destruction caused by the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian leadership is really cracking down on critical voices and on independent media."

As well as Russia's war on Ukraine, Amnesty International's annual report is focused on the human rights situation in Iran, particularly following the violent death of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Jina Mahsa Amini in September 2022. Amini was arrested for allegedly not wearing her headscarf correctly, and her subsequent death in custody sparkeda wave of protests throughout the country that still continues.

The mullahs' regime responded with brutal violence over the past few months. "We saw another significant deterioration in 2022 in terms of the number of executions, torture and arbitrary arrests," AmnestyMiddle East specialist in Germany Katja Mller-Fahlbusch told DW. "At the same time, we have seen a unique awakening. The courage with which Iranians are fighting for their freedom and their human rights, against all odds and against all state violence, even after six months, is impressive."

Amnesty's report found that the Iranian regime has not shrunk from arresting, torturing and raping children and young people. According to Mller-Fahlbusch, this too is a systematic plan aimed at intimidating their families and preventing them from protesting in the streets. The death penalty and even public executions have also formed part of this strategy.

"Between the arrests, the show trials, thedeath sentences, and the executions in four cases so far, it took only a few weeks at a breathtaking pace," said the Amnesty expert. "There are no rule-of-law standards and no regulated procedure, it is solely a means to stir up fear."

Mller-Fahlbusch fears that this violent suppression will continue this year, arguing that state authorities in Iran have for decades only employed one means: That of violence and the systematic violation of human rights. But she predicts that the protests of a society that no longer allows itself to be divided will also continue, which is why the international community must show solidarity, she said.

"In the case of Iran, publicity and public pressure provide protection," she said. "Quiet diplomacy, for example in the case of imprisoned dual nationals, does not help. What helps is public pressure, because the publicity created makes the crimes of those in political power visible. And this in turn raises the price for the Islamic Republic of Iran in this very, very cynical game."

The human rights organization is also concerned about the situation in Myanmar, where the military seized power on February 1, 2021. Since then, Amnesty International has documented extensive human rights violations, including war crimes and possible crimes against humanity. The rulers used indiscriminate and targeted ground and air attacks against civilians, looting villages and burning them to the ground.

Thousands are believed dead, 1.5 million displaced and 13,000 people still imprisoned in inhumane conditions. In addition, Amnestyhas documented four executions, plus at least 100 death sentences. Unfair trials were as much a part of everyday life as the routine use of torture during detention, the report found.

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In East Africa, meanwhile, Amnesty International has welcomed the peace agreement between the Ethiopian and Tigrayan governments, though it is worriedthat the processing of war crimes does not play any role in the peace process and that the Ethiopian government may wantto prevent it.

Amnesty's research foundthat all parties to the conflict in northern Ethiopia have committed human rights violations, including war crimes, massacres, looting, and sexual violence. Hundreds of civilians have been killed in Tigray by air strikes by Ethiopian security forcesand the Ethiopian government has blocked food aid to Tigray, possibly usinghunger as a means of warfare.

In response to all these abuses, Amnesty International has called on Berlin to condemn these offenses, to strengthen civil society and to advocate for the release of journalists and human rights defenders, as well as to demand that human rights violations be dealt with.

This article was originally written in German.

While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.

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Amnesty International: Spotlight on Iran, Myanmar, Ukraine - DW (English)

The failure of diplomatic efforts to bring Iran back to the JCPOA nuclear deal, and the problematic role being played by Iran in the Russia-Ukraine war, require a new Western strategy regarding Iran. This would aggressively push back against Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional aggressions to reduce the risk of actual war with Iran. It also would seek to reverse the drift of regional players toward Russia and China, and to stabilize a new global order.

Washington should seek a joint U.S.-European declaration that the JCPOA no longer holds, and a U.N. Security Council resolution on the resumption of sanctions on Iran ("snapback"). The United States should also advance a military option against Iran and pose a credible threat to the survival of the Islamic Republic's regime. This would not necessarily lead to war. Just the opposite is true: Without such measures, the likelihood of a violent eruption in the Middle East significantly will increase.

The present Iranian leadership could not have hoped for an easier period than the one it is now experiencing. Tehran is marching forward towards its hegemonic goals, unhindered and away from the limelight.

While Washington is absorbed by domestic concerns, by the war in Ukraine, and by the ebb and flow of tensions with China (and while Israel is distracted with internal disputes), Iran is enhancing relations with Russia and China. Iran may very well feel that catapulting to the threshold of military nuclear power is but a simple, riskless decision away.

Iran has enriched uranium to 84 percent which is very close to the 90 percent level necessary for a nuclear weapon. It has accumulated significant amounts of fissile material at various levels of enrichment and is barring International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors access to sites associated with the nuclear project. It refuses to answer the agency's questions.

At the same time, Iran is continuing its subversive activities across the region via proxy forces, deepening its political, economic and security grip in Iraq and Syria, expanding its production and export of military drones, and overall playing a significant role in the creation of an anti-American axis.

Internal protests against the regime in Iran are continuing but have been contained by brutal repression. The protests have not succeeded, yet, in posing a real threat to the regime.

As for Western responses, the European Union parliament indeed has adopted a resolution calling to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subsidiaries as terror organizations (given its terror activities, its involvement in repressing dissent, and its supplying of drones to Russia), but this is a non-binding text. The resolution has been met with derision and disdain by the IRGC commander, General Hussein Salami. He warned that such Western resolutions only motivate the IRGC to escalate its opposition to "Iran's enemies."

U.S. policy towards Iran remains anemic. President Joe Biden and his team regularly declare their commitment to preventing Iran from obtaining military nuclear capability, but they present neither a plan of action nor take active measures towards this goal.

Biden may have said, in passing, that the JCPOA "deal is dead," but the fact that no such formal announcement has been made, and no alternative measures have been announced, leaves open the prospect that Washington has not yet fully abandoned the idea of a return to former President Barack Obama's weak nuclear deal with Iran.

Iran's arrogance and its overweening self-confidence regarding the Biden administration demonstrates the erosion of U.S. standing and influence in the Middle East. This can be deduced from the conduct of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, which studiously have avoided siding with the U.S. against Russia on Ukraine and have bolstered their relations with China in the search for diplomatic support, alongside or in place of Washington's.

Even committed believers in the diplomatic option within the White House will find it difficult to deny that their approach to Iran has failed, with the U.S. paying dearly as a result. Now, with diplomacy at the point of collapse and in the face of Iran's provocative involvement in the war in Ukraine, it is finally time for Washington to check Iran's aggrandizement and aggression (as long urged by Israel), and in the process to rebuild U.S. ties with pro-Western countries in the Middle East.

This is the place to note that in Iran's view both its nuclear and conventional build-up are meant primarily to secure the survival of the Islamist regime against external foreign intervention. But the regime is there not just to survive. It is driven by an ambitious vision of Islamic revolution and regional hegemony.

In the past, sanctions have taken a heavy economic toll on Iran. However, sanctions not only have failed to generate a real threat to the regime's survival, they have not halted Iran's terrorist aims nor its military build-up.

The Biden administration cannot leave the Iranian question hanging. It would do well to put together a road map with the following elements: Snapback sanctions on Iran with tight supervision (especially of Iranian oil exports and dual-use technologies); designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization across Europe; suspension of Iranian membership in international forums; sanctions and economic pressure on individuals and organizations involved in repressing human rights; penalties on key Iranian industries; covert disruptive measures against Iran's nuclear program; and the articulation and demonstration of a credible military threat against Iran's rulers.

Some Americans fear that such steps will bring the U.S. closer to war with Iran. We argue that instead these moves will enhance American deterrence and prevent war. The elimination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 by a U.S. drone strike is a case in point. Iran reduced its overall terrorist activity in the wake of this bold move. Tehran understood the imbalance of power between the U.S. and Iran.

While this may not be a sufficient base upon which to draw broader conclusions, it does suggest that there is no need to overstate the dangers involved in tough action against Iran, nor to ignore the huge gap in relative strength between the two rivals. And the cost of the alternativethe implications of failure to act against Iranmust be borne in mind.

Meir Ben Shabbat is head of Misgav: The Institute for Zionist Strategy & National Security, in Jerusalem. He served as Israel's national security advisor and head of the National Security Council between 2017 and 2021, and for 25 years held senior positions in Israel's General Security Service. Eran Lerman is vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. He served as a deputy national security advisor, and for 25 years held senior positions in Israeli military intelligence.

The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.

Read more:
It's Time to Get Tough on Iran. Really Tough | Opinion - Newsweek

In December 2011, a US RQ-170 Sentinel drone went missing in airspace close to the Iran-Afghanistan border.

The Sentinel resurfaced on Iranian TV days later, where it was paraded as a very valuable acquisition. Six years later, an Iranian-made copy of the drone crossed from Syria into Israel, sparking a deadly exchange of fire.

The case was not a one-off. Iran has come to specialise in reverse engineering and boasts a long record of producing cruise missiles, anti-tank weapons, and fighter jet components based on designs from the US, Russia and China.

Irans engineers now enjoy far greater opportunities to test their skills than a solitary captured drone, according to US officials, who believe that Russia is regularly sending captured Western weapons from the battlefields of Ukraine to their increasingly close ally.

The Iranians are masters of reverse engineering, says Michael Knights, a scholar of the Iranian military at US think-tank the Washington Institute. They have been doing it for such a long time and they are very good at it.

Dr Knights has little doubt that Tehrans engineers are busy with the spoils of war from Ukraine. Every time they come into contact with foreign military technology, they reverse engineer it. This is not something they occasionally do. Its something they always do.

The specialism is partly a product of historic circumstances. Before the fall of the Shah and the Islamic revolution of 1979, Iran was a close ally of the US and a leading importer of its state-of-the-art hardware. Tehran bought up F-4 Phantom fighter jets in the 1960s, and then became the only foreign owner of the F-14 Tomcat.

But after the regime of Ayatollah Khomeini took power, Iran was cut off from its chief military supplier and relations with the US have remained hostile ever since. Sitting on a stockpile of ageing American weapons, but unable to replace or repair them with new parts, Iran set about building its own versions.

The results shocked the world during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, says Steven Ward, a former CIA analyst and author of Immortal, a history of the Iranian military.

Most observers thought the still state-of-the-art Tomcats would quickly become inoperable without US support, he said. Instead, Iran kept some flying and the Iraqi air force remained wary of coming into contact with the more capable Iranian pilots.

Scarcely plausibly, Iran is still operating a fleet of F-14s, having continuously replaced worn-out parts with home-made products. Analysts believe that the jets in service have been almost completely rebuilt with few of their original parts remaining.

Tehran has shown a preference for US gear over the years, often looking to its imported stockpile for inspiration. From the US-made BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missile came the Toophan replica, which has become a staple of Irans armed forces and a profitable export model.

The BGM-71 gave up another deadly gift that displayed the creativity of Iranian engineers, says Dr Knights. The warhead of the missile was used as a model for a mine that was littered across the roadsides of Iraq during the US invasion, and killed more than 100 US soldiers.

The reverse engineering programme benefits from a military industrial complex that is only behind Turkey and Israel in the wider region, and has a symbiotic relationship with the nations top universities, says Dr Ahmed Hashim, professor of war studies at Deakin University, Australia.

Iran has built a big scientific cadre, and it produces more scientific output than the entire Arab world combined, he said, noting this has taken them to the threshold of nuclear weapons.

There are limitations to Irans programme, analysts note. Tehran has struggled to reverse engineer a jet engine, which is why it is seeking to import Russian jets.

Iran might struggle to produce sophistication to match the most advanced Western weaponry, says Dr Knights, but in many cases it doesnt need to.

A lot of Western military equipment, like a Tomahawk cruise missile, is very over-engineered, he says, noting that Iran has come to specialise in pared-back, lower cost imitations that perform a similar function, often using cheaper carbon fibre material instead of expensive metals.

Concern over Irans ability to replicate Western innovation is likely a constraint on Western aid, according to Dr Kenneth Katzman, a former CIA agent and now an Iran specialist at the Soufan Center think-tank.

That is one reason why the US has held back some of the systems from Ukraine, because there is a risk of capture, reverse engineering, and learning about US capabilities, he says.

Dr Katzman highlights jet fighters and long-range missiles among the sensitive areas where the US has so far rejected Ukrainian pleas.

Combat aircraft are very complex so that would certainly be a concern, and the ATACMS missiles from long range artillery the precision of US weaponry is very good and the US doesnt want to lose its advantage by having things captured.

The US has also withheld advanced drones such as Reapers and Predators, he notes although a Reaper was brought down by a Russian jet over the Black Sea last month.

Dr Knights believes advanced communications technology and anti-tank weapons are likely to be among Irans priorities.

Losing Javelins would probably be the scariest thing, he says. Iran could also seek Himars rockets and other long-range missiles, he adds, but Russia would need a major offensive victory to capture Western air defences stationed in the rear.

The influx of Western tanks is less likely to be of interest to Iran, Dr Knights adds, as Iran has already captured nine M1A1 Abrams tanks widely seen as the worlds most advanced tank from Afghanistan and will have taken them apart down to molecular level.

The burgeoning partnership between Russia and Iran is likely to be an increasing headache for the West as the states pool resources and share knowledge, with support from an extended network including North Korea and China.

Analysts believes the partnership between Russian and Iran is more equal now in Moscows hour of need, and Iran is likely to be handsomely compensated through fighter jets and technical support for its assistance in Ukraine, including swarms of suicide drones.

Irans reverse engineering expertise has benefitted from the regular conflicts it has been involved in, suggests Dr Katzman. Tehran is not directly involved in the Ukraine war, but it could offer a unique opportunity to steal the secrets of Western militaries.

Excerpt from:
Iran's pirate weapons industry is cloning Western military hardware ... - inews

The UK will proscribe Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Security Minister said on Monday, but he did not give a time.

Tom Tugendhat made the comments during a meeting with journalist and activist Vahid Beheshti, who is on the 33rd day of a hunger strike camped on the pavement opposite the UKs Foreign Office.

During Beneshtis meeting with Mr Tugendhat, the minister expressed concerns for activists health.

I explained to Mr Tugendhat that I remain firm in my position, and my concerns over the IRGC's undermining of our values, safety and security are growing every day, the activist said later.

In the end, I asked Mr Tugendhat to pass my message to our Prime Minister, that he must uphold his pledge to proscribe the IRGC, which he made before being elected.

I assured him that I will continue my hunger strike until the IRGC is officially proscribed by the government."

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government has for months faced pressure from MPs and British Iranians to place the IRGC in the same category as Al Qaeda, Hamas and Hezbollah.

While ministers have announced several rounds of sanctions against Iran, they have stopped short of recognising the IRGC as a terrorist organisation.

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Mr Beheshti has said that sanctions are not enough to deter the IRGC from its malign activities at home and abroad.

He said sanctions imposed by the UKs Conservative government against Iran, including officials within the regime, did not go far enough.

He said the effect of such punitive measures would not be felt in the short-term and therefore would be ineffective in sending a powerful message.

Mr Beheshti said that only proscribing the IRGC as a terrorist entity would make it clear to the regime that Britain would no longer consider it a credible authority and its human rights abuses would not be tolerated.

On Friday, day 30 of his hunger strike, he wrote an open letter to Mr Sunak, pleading with him to meet him to discuss his demand.

He said the failure of past British governments to stand up to the Iranian regime's oppression in Iran and abroad has reached a critical level.

Born and raised in Borujerd, a city 400km south-west of Tehran, Mr Beheshti migrated to Britain 24 years ago and has since worked as a journalist and human rights activist.

The tipping point, he said, came in February when the TV station Iran International was forced to close its London studios after journalists received death threats from the Iranian regime.

Updated: March 27, 2023, 8:17 PM

Read more from the original source:
Tugendhat says UK will proscribe Iran's IRGC but gives no time - The National