Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

How the West Gets Iran’s Interventionism Wrong – The National Interest Online

While many in the West are quick to ascribe Iransinterventions throughout the Middle East to itscomplex history with the United States, the matter is not nearly so simple. A confluence of military, religious, economic, and historical factorsoften completely ignored by many Western governments, who assume Irans policy of intervention and nuclear aims are solely motivated by ideological anti-Western sentimentdrives Iranian interventionism throughout the region, stretching from its ancient history to the present. These interventionist impulses are a desire for regional hegemony; aspirations to promulgate Shia Islam; efforts to reap the benefits of regional trade; and a resurgence of Persian nationalism. For the West to truly comprehend, much less correctly respond to, Irans actions, it must first analyze Iran from a non-Western perspective.

Perhaps the most evident impulse driving Irans interventionist practices is its desire to achieve regional hegemony. Just like ancient Persia, modern-day Iran is centrally located in the Middle East and surrounded by rival and weakened failed states. Two nations, in particular, Israel andSaudi Arabiain conjunction with the Gulf Cooperation Council and Turkeyhave long engaged Iran in a series of proxy wars to promote their regional agendas and expand their power. These conflicts often occur in the surrounding failed states, as the governments are not strong enough to quash them and assert control. Several recent examples include theSyrian Civil War, in which Iran backs the Syrian government and similarly aligned non-state actors such as Hezbollah; theYemeni Civil War, where Iran supports the Houthi rebels opposing the internationally recognized government; andwar-torn Iraq, where Shia militias loyal to Tehran carry out its bidding in exchange for funding and armaments. In each instance, Iran has clashed with Israel and Saudi Arabia to cement its status as a powerful actor in the Middle East.

Irans conflict with its neighbors is not a recent phenomenon. In its early days, the Persian Empire clashed with Rome over their Western border in Syria, frequently employing indigenous guerilla raiders on the frontiers to instigate conflict. From the sixteenth century through the nineteenth century, Iran came into conflict on all sides, from Mughal India to the east, the Ottoman Empire to the west, the Russian Empire to the north, and even the Portuguese and British Empires in the Strait of Hormuz. Throughout its history, Iran has feuded with its neighbors and rivals to achieve regional hegemonic status, to varying degrees of success.

Along with its hegemonic aspirations, another driving force behind Irans meddling in the Middle East is spreading its unique brand of Shia Islam. After the Islamic Schism in 632 AD, following the death of the Prophet Mohammed, Iran became one of the last bastions for Shiite Muslims. Iran is estimated to contain over 80 percent of the worlds Shia population. Iran fought several religiously motivated conflicts with its Sunni Muslim neighbors, the Ottoman Empire and Mughal India, throughout the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, as well as countless skirmishes with Sunni tribesmen before that.

Religion became far more important as a motivating force for Iran after the Iranian Revolution of 1979. During the Revolution, radical Islamic theocrats led by Ayatollah Khomeini deposed the U.S.-backed shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi. Khomeini promptly utilized the religious fervor ignited by this coup to spread an anti-American sentiment throughout the nation, which contributed to the Iran hostage crisis. Seeing itself as the protector of Shia Muslims, this newfound emphasis on Shiism put Iran directly in conflict with Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of Sunni Muslims and self-described Defender of the Holy Cities. Conflagrations between the two Islamic powers, both direct and indirect, often occur in the failed states surrounding them, showing just how interconnected Irans interventionist impulses truly are. The desire to spread Shiism has led to Irans growing influence in post-Saddam Iraq and the Syrian Civil War, much to the consternation of Saudi Arabia.

Another factor driving Irans interventionism is its propensity for reaping the rewards of regional trade, something it has been denied for most of its existence. The Persian Empire naturally contained avast abundance of economic resources, additionally benefitting from its position along the Silk Road. For a time, Persia enjoyed tremendous economic prosperity. However, as the Ottoman Empire expanded economically and territorially, Persia began to lose its regional economic dominance. Eventually, as the Portuguese and British Empires began to take hold of the Indian subcontinent, clashes with Europeans became more and more frequent. Predictably, these confrontations led to Persia becoming boxed in between them and the Ottomans. Being trapped between their rivals meant Persias economic situation gradually deteriorated to the point where it competed with the Ottomans and imperialist Europeans to trade resources on the world market.

Contemporary Iran faces a similar economic dilemma, although in a different context. After the 1979 revolution, Irans interventionist activities (both religious and hegemonic) increasingly set itself in conflict against the main trading partners in the region, Saudi Arabia and the GCC. These actions have also earned the ire of the United States, which has applied stringent economic sanctions on Iran in an attempt to end its interventionist practices. These sanctions, combined with its inability to trade extensively with the GCC, have led Iran to have an abundance of in-demand economic resources, yet it cannot export them. Many experts stipulate that Iran wishes to use its interventionist practices, such as supporting Hezbollah, Hamas, and other proxies, asbargaining chips to lessen theimposed sanctions.

The fourth element of Irans interventionism in the Middle East is the sentiment of Persian nationalism that the Iranian government and ordinary Iranians feel. Iran views itself as the inheritor of the once-great Persian Empire and hopes to reclaim what it perceives as its lost glory. Leaders in Tehran believe that Irans historical significance and cultural superiority automatically permit it to have amore significant role in regional affairs. Unlike regional hegemony, this impulse is not directly about territory or political clout. Instead, it is a state of mind to justify and unify Irans different desires under a single idea. This form of nationalism adopted by the Iranian government also draws on the countrys Persian ancestry and prestige to influence the Iranian populace to support its interventions abroad.

Persian nationalism, especially for the current regime, is a way to define Iranian national independence in light of its cultural past. It recalls the many previous examples of the old Persian Empire being exploited and abused by foreign powers. It thus dictates why Iran must come into its own and adopt a more aggressive foreign policy. However, in other instances, it celebrates former moments of Persian greatness, particularly itscultural superiority over its neighbors. Before the revolution, Shah Reza Pahlavi relied heavily upon Persian culture by keeping the term Shah and utilizing his royal bloodline to relate himself to the Shahs of old. The religious regime that replaced him also used Persian nationalism to its advantage by recently reviving thepre-Islamic New Year.

Contrary to the prevailing thought in Washington and other Western nations, it isnt Irans inherent hatred towards the West but rather a wide range of factors that drive its interventionism in the Middle East. The central impulses driving Iranian interventionismregional hegemony, Shiism, trade, and Persian nationalismmust be more broadly studied by Western scholars and policymakers should they truly hope to understand why Iran undertakes the actions it does. A greater understanding of these themes can also assist politicians in knowing how to engage Iran properly, and how they will likely respond to those overtures.

Rising regional tensions and the seemingly inevitable dissolution of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action largely show that the Wests current maximum pressure approach does not work, primarily because its aim is curtailing displeasing Iranian actions without addressing the genesis of their implementation. The West could reach a more mutually beneficial arrangement with Iran if they adopted a more amenable attitude towards its foreign policy concerns or at least appropriately analyzed them. Washingtons repeated classification of Irans interventionist actions as being purely targeted against the United States and its interests, as opposed to merely being reactionary with respect to Irans own economic, political, and historical environment, has thus far only poured more fuel on the fire instead of creating a workable solution.

Jake McAloon is an American historian and political analyst in the Chicagoland area. His primary areas of interest are Middle Eastern & African foreign policy formulation and implementation as well as American interventionism.

Image: Reuters.

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How the West Gets Iran's Interventionism Wrong - The National Interest Online

Is the U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier on the Brink of Being Obsolete (Thanks to Iran)? – 19FortyFive

Many experts have asked the question if Russia or China could sink a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier in a war and if that means those warships are now obsolete. But what about other nations that have large amounts of missiles in their military arsenal, like Iran? The Islamic Republicof Iran frequentlydemonstratesits willingness to strike U.S. assets in the Middle East, including a naval aircraft carrier. While the regime has threatened its Western adversary since the Iranian Revolution, the intensity of its rhetoric has increased exponentially in recent years. As U.S.-Iran tensions have soared following the upheaval surrounding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the IRGC has greatly expanded its weapons arsenal, making these threats more meaningful. Iran has practiced destroying U.S. military assets, including a naval aircraft carrier, in its semi-regular wargame exercises.

Additionally, Irans Navy blatantly assaulted oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman in 2019, indicating the regime has the capability and willingness to escalate conflict. Although U.S. defenses are superior in every way, the potential for Irans successful destruction of a U.S. naval aircraft carrier is not impossible.

What Could Iran Really Do?

In 2015, the IRGC firedrocketsclose to the Nimitz-class carrier USS Harry S. Truman while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Denouncing Irans assault as highly provocative, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)reportedthat the IRGCs motive to fire drills less than 1,500 yards away from the carrier was to threaten Americas presence in the region. The CENTCOM spokesperson at the time, Commander Kyle Raines, stated that Firing weapons so close to passing coalition ships and commercial traffic within an internationally recognized maritime traffic lane is unsafe, unprofessional and inconsistent with international maritime law.

While it is doubtful that a barrage of rockets could have sunk the carrier, it could have caused damage and potentially injured soldiers on board. Regardless of the outcome, Irans willingness and capability to fire any weapon that close to a U.S. naval aircraft carrier served as escalatory behavior.

In 2019, four oil vessels wereattackedoff the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. The tankers were owned by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Two months later, a suspectedcoordinatedattack on a Japanese-owned tanker and a Norwegian-owned vessel off the coast of Oman greatly escalated tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed the attack on Iranian aggression.

These events proved significant for multiple reasons. The Gulf of Oman links the Arabian Sea with the Strait of Hormuz- the gateway to the Persian Gulf. Almost a fifth of the worlds oil consumption passes through the strait, making it a strategic waterway. Iran was demonstrating with this assault that they are capable and can interrupt theflow of oiland upset the global economy.

The Bottom Line

Although Irans torpedoes and rockets alone do not pose a significant threat to the survivability of a U.S. naval aircraft carrier, the regime could possess weapons that do. As the IRGC has ramped up its efforts to expand and advance its weapons arsenals in recent years, Irans increasedcapabilitiespose a greater threat to its adversaries, including America. The Iranian Navys fleet ofKilo-class submarinesare equipped with torpedoes that could severely impact the structure of a carrier. Additionally, Iran has been able to developlonger-range ballistic missilesthat will ultimately be capable of hitting U.S. assets.

Maya Carlin is a Middle East Defense Editor with 19FortyFive. She is also an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel.

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Is the U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier on the Brink of Being Obsolete (Thanks to Iran)? - 19FortyFive

Is Iran On the Brink of Building an ICBM? – 19FortyFive

Is Iran marching towards an ICBM? On June 15th, the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledged its plans to conduct a test launch of its new solid-fueled rocket in the near future. One day prior, satellite images captured by Maxar Technologies depicted a rocket positioned on a desert launch pad that has been used by the regime to launch tests in the past.

While Irans Defense Ministry announced these plans on Wednesday, the government did not admit to this imminent test launch initially. A spokesperson with Irans Defense Ministry described the countrys test launch last year as successful, yet the history of Irans space program is unquestionably riddled with failures. Despite the outcome of Irans approaching test launch, the regime is sending a message to its adversaries including the United States. By carrying out the test, the regime is defying a United Nations resolution that restricts Irans ballistic missile development. As tensions between Iran, the U.S., and its regional adversaries have increased in recent months, the regimes test launch could be considered an escalation.

Launch Sites Redied, But Are They Reliable?

According to Iranian state news sources, two test launches of the Zuljanah solid-fuel satellite carrier rocket are planned for the imminent future. The rocket is equipped with a 200-kilogram payload, a sufficient amount needed for a nuclear warhead. While Irans spokesperson claimed an initial test of the rocket was deemed successful by Iran, satellite imagery suggests otherwise.

In late February, the Associated Press reported that Iran likely experienced a testing failure of its Zulijanah rocket. Images captured of the launch pad depicted a damaged surface and debris. In 2019, a mysterious rocket explosion at the Iman Khomeini Space Center destroyed and killed researchers.

Failure to Launch Successfully

While Iran has suffered from several failures in its space department over the last decade, the regime has maintained its commitment to carry out successful launches. In April 2020, Tehran launched its first successful military satellite. The Noor-1 light was carried by an indigenously made Qased three-stage space launch vehicle (SLV). This successful launch was extremely significant as it marked the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) first success in its new military space program. Additionally, the solid-fuel capability would make Irans ballistic missile designs more sophisticated when applied to these weapons in the future.

Irans latest test launch comes just one day after an Iranian scientist was mysteriously killed on a mission. Over the last year, a series of assassinations and sketchy deaths have plagued top Iranian officials. Israel has claimed responsibility for the targeted killing of Sayad Khodayee in May, according to the New York Times.

The IRGC officer was allegedly the leader of a small task force tasked with kidnapping Israelis and other foreigners around the world. The killing of Iranian scientists may also be perpetuated by the Jewish state, as it undoubtedly sets back the regimes progress on the nuclear front. Israels Begin Doctrine instructs the country to preemptively act to ensure that its adversaries do not obtain nuclear capabilities.

Irans ICBM Dreams

Irans latest test launch indicates the country could be seeking the launch capabilities needed to perform a successful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). However, the regime will first have to perfect the reentry of its satellites and warhead targeting to make this threat more formidable.

Maya Carlinis a Middle East Defense Editor with 19FortyFive. She is also an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel.

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Is Iran On the Brink of Building an ICBM? - 19FortyFive

Irans exports growth to Turkiye hits 60% this year – Mehr News Agency – English Version

According to the statistics released by Turkiyes Statistics Office, Irans trade exchanges with Turkiye in the first four months of the current year registered a 38% hike.

The two countries of Iran and Turkiye exchanged $2.175 billion worth of products in that period.

Statistics showed that Iran and Turkiye exchanged $1.574 billion worth of commodities in the same period of last year.

Regarding Irans import of products from Turkiye, this country exported $944 million worth of products from Jan. to Apr. 2022, showing an 18% growth as compared to the last years corresponding period.

The Republic of Turkiye exported $799 million worth of products to Iran in the same period last year.

Turkiyes import of products from Iran in the first four months of the current year recorded a 60% increase, so that Turkiye had imported $775 million worth of products from Iran from Jan. to Apr. 2021, the rate of which hit $1.231 billion in the first four months of the current year in 2022.

Iran is Turkiyes 19th export destination and Iran- Turkiye trade value in 12 months of the previous year in 2021 hit $5.594 billion, showing a 53% growth as compared to the same period last last year.

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Irans exports growth to Turkiye hits 60% this year - Mehr News Agency - English Version

Iran’s nuclear tactics leaves Biden with tough choices

A flare-up in tensions between the UN nuclear monitor and Iran this week has left US President Joe Biden in an increasingly tight jam.

The US leader opened his presidency with a pledge to return to the 2015 international agreement that aimed to prevent Tehran from building nuclear weapons, after predecessor Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from it.

Negotiations to restore that agreement have been at an impasse for three months over the very last details.

Without a deal -- and Iran ever closer to nuclear "breakout" -- Biden has a tough choice: tomake more concessions to Tehran, and be accused of weakness by Republican opponents ahead of midterm elections, or declare the talks dead, which could spark a new Middle East crisis.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Thursday that Tehran's removal this week of 27 cameras monitoring its nuclear sites could deal a "fatal blow" to negotiations.

"At this stage, things can go either way," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. "The tension of the past few days could potentially stir leadership in Tehran and Washington to take the deal that is on the table."

Or, he said, "It's the first step in another cycle of escalation, and from this point on it would only get worse."

"Worse" could mean Tehran moving ahead to build a nuclear weapon, and its opponents like Israel and US hardliners demanding hard action to prevent that.

The talks in Vienna between Iran and the major powers resumed last year at Biden's impetus, with the US willing to rescind sanctions in exchange for Tehran returning to full implementation of the 2015 JointComprehensivePlan of Action (JCPOA).

But at the edge of a deal three months ago, the talks stalled, due -- according to US officials -- to final demands by Iran unrelated to nuclear issues.

Meanwhile, officials say, Iran has pushed ahead with uranium enrichment operations that take it close to a weapons capability.

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The situation deteriorated this week when members of the IAEA censuredIran for not cooperating. A day later Iran removed the 27 cameras.

Supporters say the deal is the only thing that has prevented Iran from building nuclear weapons, and that saving it is worth Biden giving Tehran some concessions.

But opponents -- Republicans, and strong supporters of Iran's nemesis Israel -- say Iran's lack of cooperation shows the agreement is not worth pursuing.

If Tehran's accelerated uranium enrichment operations "are not sufficient to get the Biden administration to change course, what will?" asked Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think-tank, which has opposed the JCPOA.

"The time has come for a multilateral version of maximum pressure," he said, referring to Trump's approach.

Even among Biden's Democratic Party, some voices are growing impatient.

"At what point will the administration acknowledge that Iran's nuclear advances make a return to the 2015 JCPOA not in the United States' strategic interest?" said Senator Bob Menendez.

Vaez says that the Biden administration has settled into the situation of having neither an agreement nor a crisis over it.

"The developments of the past 48 hours have basically demonstrated to both sides that the status quo in the past three months of no deal, no crisis is really not sustainable," said Vaez.

Yet Washington hasn't set a deadline. On Thursday Secretary of State Antony Blinken only warned that the removal of the monitoring cameras threatened JCPOA restoration.

"The only outcome of such a path will be a deepening nuclear crisis and further economic and political isolation for Iran," Blinken said.

Instead of a hard line, the top US diplomat kept the door open.

Returning to the deal "would still achieve our most important and urgent nonproliferation goals and would be strongly in our national security interests," said a Blinken spokesperson.

Randa Slim, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, called the impasse a state of limbo "whereby everybody will assume that the Vienna talks have collapsed, but nobody will be willing to announce it."

That is Biden's dilemma, she said.

If they declare the talks over and conclude that Iran has imminent nuclear weapons capability, Washington could be forced into taking direct action against Iran, or supporting such action by Israel, said Slim.

"There are two clocks ticking .... putting a lot of pressure on the Biden administration," said Vaez.

One is the clock on Tehran's actual nuclear technology advances, he said.

"And then there's the political clock," of the congressional elections in November that could deeply erode Biden's political clout.

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Iran's nuclear tactics leaves Biden with tough choices