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It could be make or break time for the Iran nuclear deal.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was the Obama administrations top foreign policy achievement. It led to dramatic reductions in Irans ability to enrich uranium in return for the U.S. and its allies lifting nuclear-related sanctions that were crippling Irans economy.

Under Trump, the U.S. designated an elite Iranian military unit as a foreign terrorist organization. That led to extreme sanctions against individuals and agencies connected to this group.

Former President Donald Trump abrogated the agreement just over four years ago. The Biden administrations talks with Iran to revive the deal have since progressed impressively, but now they have stalled again.

The problem lies with one of the many new sanctions Trump imposed against Iran during his last days in office that have nothing to do with Irans nuclear program or the JCPOA.

Under Trump, the U.S. designated an elite Iranian military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as a foreign terrorist organization. That led to extreme sanctions against individuals and agencies connected to this group.

The designation was explicitly designed by Trump to serve as a poison pill that would make it politically much harder for the U.S. to rejoin the deal, since it would require lifting sanctions against a so-called terrorist organization.

Unfortunately, the ploy seems to have worked.

The Senate recently approved a nonbinding GOP-backed measure pressuring the Biden administration not to de-list the Revolutionary Guard, even though getting back to the agreement will be almost impossible without delisting. Diplomats on all sides are working to overcome this obstacle, but time is running short.

Trumps blatantly political move has made the United States, the region and the world less safe.

During the period that the JCPOA was in effect, all sides agreed that Iran was in full compliance with its requirements. But still it faced devastating new sanctions from the Trump administration.

While Iran has gradually enriched uranium to higher levels since Trump abrogated the deal, it has made no attempt to acquire nuclear weapons. Returning to the JCPOA is the best way to prevent this from happening.

Israel is the regions only current nuclear weapons state. But others including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Turkey (which already has U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil as part of NATOs nuclear sharing) could end up joining the nuclear club if Iran does.

To repeat, Iran has, to date, not moved toward acquiring nuclear weapons. But its people continue to endure punishing economic sanctions, with the poorest and most vulnerable always the hardest hit.

A renewed JCPOA provides a way to avoid the threat of war initiated by one of Irans regional rivals, or even the United States that would arise should Iran at some point move toward nuclear capability. It might also serve as the basis for future negotiations with Iran on broader military and regional issues, and even set the stage for beginning negotiations towards global nuclear disarmament.

Negotiations over restoring the JCPOA are ongoing, and a resolution could come soon. A separate agreement between Iran and the UN's nuclear watchdog agency, allowing UN inspection of Irans nuclear sites, is scheduled to expire around June 6. That gives sharp urgency to getting the U.S. team to the table.

Theres still time to undo Trumps reckless abandonment of diplomacy. The last thing the world needs is another regional arms race, or another war.

This column was produced for Progressive Perspectives, which is run by The Progressive magazine and distributed by Tribune News Service.

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Reseal the Deal with Iran - Progressive.org - Progressive.org

DUBAI, May 23 (Reuters) - Iran and Oman have agreed to form a committee to jointly develop the Hengam oilfield, which straddles both countries' sea border, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported its oil minister Javad Owji as saying on Monday.

In 2005, both countries signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly develop the Hengam oil field but the agreement did not materialise and Iran decided to develop the field independently in 2012.

"As the first basis of my talks with Omani Oil Minister Mohammed bin Hamad Al-Rumhi, it was agreed to form a joint technical committee to develop the next phases of the Hengam oil field in a seamless manner between Iran and Oman," Owji said.

"Joint exploitation, in contrast to competitive exploitation, will be mutually beneficial to both countries as this method leads to less damage to the reservoir and allows for more extraction," the oil minister added.

Last week, Iran's state news agency IRNA reported that Owji had agreed to revive a long-stalled project to lay an undersea pipeline to carry gas to Oman. read more

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Reporting by Dubai Newsroom

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Iran and Oman agree to jointly develop shared oilfield, Fars reports - Reuters

Tajikistan and Iran share common borders in a difficult neighbourhood and both countries have Persian-majorities. Here is what experts say more about their military cooperation.

Irans move to produce drones for Tajikistan, a Central Asian state having strong cultural and ethnic connections with Tehran, marks a crucial milestone for the Shia-majority country.

While Iran produces drones for its national defence, its drone factory in Tajikistan will be its first offshore arms production facility.

This is the first time that Iran has started mass production of military equipment abroad. This is the first time that the Islamic Republic is transferring production line know-how by officially inaugurating a manufacturing factory in Tajikistan, says Hosein Dalirian, a Tehran-based Iranian journalist. Irans drones, named Ababil-2, will be multi-role tactical unmanned aerial vehicles, he says.

The inauguration of the drone factory on Tuesday is proof that Iran is seeking to reinforce its friendly relations across the region, empowering its allies and securing their interests alongside its own interests, according to Dalirian. Certainly, Tajikistan is a brotherly and friendly country to Iran, Dalirian tells TRT World.

According to Irans official IRNA news agency, Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, the head of Irans armed forces, was in Tajikistan during the official ceremony for the drone factorys inauguration.

We are in a position to, apart from meeting our domestic need, export military equipment to allied and friendly countries to help increase security and sustainable peace,Bagherisaid at the opening ceremony.

Ulas Pehlivan, a security analyst and a former Turkish military officer, sees other political motives in the two neighbouring countries military cooperation. Enduring US sanctions force Iran to enlarge its own sphere of influence in the region, Pehlivan tells TRT World.

Overlapping interests

Tajikistan and Iran have many commonalities. Their populations largely speak the Persian language and both states are wary of the Taliban rule in Afghanistan for their own reasons. In recent years, Iran and Tajikistan, which gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, have gotten closer, particularly due to the turbulent Afghan politics.

Unlike the Sunni-dominated Taliban, Iran is a Shia-majority country and is angry about attacks on Afghanistan's Shia minority, Hazaras. On the other hand, Tajikistan has a secular rule, which is a stark difference to the Taliban's religious-minded governance.

Like Iran, Tajikistan also has a lot of concerns about the Pashtun-dominated Taliban rule in a country where the Tajiks are the second biggest ethnicity. Iran has also long backed Afghanistans Tajiks to create an "eastern Iranian arc", which would also include Tajikistan itself, according to Kirill Semenov,a Russian expert.

Iran sees Tajikistan not only as a springboard to further its military, political and economic interests in Central Asia but also as an opportunity to demonstrate its cultural and spiritual potential, Semenov wrote.

Tajikistan also needs Iran for various reasons.

Dushanbe needs to improve its defence capabilities against possible threats from Afghanistan. Also Tajikistan needs to secure its border with both Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan where clashes and illegal crossings continue, says Pehlivan, referring to why Tajikistan needs Iranian drones.

But there is more to Dushanbes rapprochement with Tehran. Landlocked Tajikistans international trade also needs to have access to the high seas through Iran. And Iran seeks to overcome its Saudi competitors in Tajikistan, Pehlivan says.

Iran and Tajikistan are seeking to promote and develop joint defence and military cooperation and this will certainly strengthen Dushanbe in the arms sphere given Irans advanced military capabilities, says Dalirian, the Iranian journalist. The Tajik president previously confirmed the countrys plans to strengthen ties with Iran, the journalist adds.

Are Iranian drones up to the job?

While Dalirian believes Iranian drone technology is developing rapidly, Pehlivan is not sure that Tehrans drones have reached a level Turkish drones currently enjoy in a proven efficiency across different battlefields from Azerbaijans Karabakh, a disputed region between Yerevan and Baku, to Libyas capital Tripoli.

Irans move to open a drone manufacturing factory in Tajikistan highlights the fact that Irans drone technology has reached a point that it is now able to transfer its know-how to other countries, according to Dalirian.

Iranian military experts in recent years have managed to develop indigenous arms manufacturing capabilities in various areas despite the sanctions imposed by the US and the West, Dalirian adds.

Under heavy US sanctions, Iran has no other way than relying on itself to improve its own capacity on drones. Even though Iranian drone technology is rather limited, Tehran continues its UAV development efforts by transferring its experience on rocket/missile technologies to the UAV field, Pehlivan says.

There are signs that Iran receives support from China and Russia, the two anti-Western countries like Tehran, to develop its defence technology, according to Pehlivan. However, they could not so far manage to manufacture drones that have proven themselves on the battlefield, such as Trkiyes Bayraktar, Karayel and Anka."

The success stories of Turkeys Bayraktars in Azerbaijans Karabakh and sales to Turkic Central Asian states and Tajikistan, a non-Turkic central Asia nation, might also have pushed Iran to open its first military production line abroad, Pehlivan views.

Iran having cultural, geographical and historical proximity with Tajikistan could also seek to compete with Trkiyes Bayraktar even though its systems are far less performant than the Turkish drones, says Pehlivan.

Long before launching its first official drone production line in Tajikistan, Iran provided simple kamikaze UAVs to its proxies and ally forces across the Middle East, from Lebanons Hezbollah to Hamas, Yemens Houthis, Iraqi Shia groups and Syrias Assad regime, according to Pehlivan.

Source: TRT World

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Why is Iran developing a drone production line in Tajikistan? - TRT World

The U.S. has a tough choice between its strategic objectives in West Asia and the implications of Irans location

The U.S. has a tough choice between its strategic objectives in West Asia and the implications of Irans location

A recent essay in Foreign Affairs argues that Tehran has not achieved any of its lofty ambitions, but it has made progress towards them and it is feeling emboldened by its recent successes. It argues that Iran is both self-assured and deeply insecure, displays external vigour that conceals ultimately incurable internal maladies, has built its foreign policy on the twin pillars of confronting the United States and Israel and is closer to realising its vision than it was a decade ago. Yet, despite its success in cultivating militant groups across West Asia, there are tangible signs that it has overreached and that two-thirds of young Arabs in the region now view Iran as an adversary. The essay concedes that Washingtons perception of Iran has suffered from four decades of estrangement and strategic narcissism. Given the geopolitical and historical backdrop of Iran, does this reflect the totality of the countrys interests and strategic perceptions?

A decade earlier, John Limbert, former senior diplomat who was one of the hostages of the embassy siege of 1979, felt certain rules seem to guide U.S. policy over the years. They include: (i) Never walk through an open door. Instead, bang your head against a wall; (ii) Never say yes to anything that the other side proposes. Doing so will make you weak; and (iii) The other side is infinitely hostile, devious, domineering and irrational. It is the embodiment of all that is evil.

With an area of 1.6 million sq km, Iran is the 18th largest country in the world in terms of area. It shares land borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and Iraq and maritime borders with Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman. In its long history it has experienced periods of conflict, imperial dominance and foreign occupation and most recently, a revolution. All these left a mark on its collective memory. Its culture has been hugely influential in world history and rightly depicted as an Empire of the Mind.

Since the revolution of 1979, and the end of the U.S. security umbrella under the latters Twin Pillars policy, Iran has been concerned about national security given its long and porous borders with Iraq and Afghanistan. Refugees have poured in from Afghanistan and an armed aggression resulted in the decade-long war with Iraq. With Pakistan, there was a moment of unease after the Bangladesh War of 1971, but was soon set at rest by India.

Despite the upheavals of the post-revolutionary era and the war, Iran maintained a degree of political stability. This was thanks to its power structure, based on a multitude of loosely connected and generally fiercely competitive power centres. These power centres remain formally grounded in the Constitution and the structure emanating from it and actually grounded in the religio-political associations emanating from the clerical leadership that retains an exclusive grip on state power. Each of these also has its own factional tussles with its own power to facilitate or obstruct individual policies. The locus of individual decisions therefore is always a challenging exercise.

Also read | Iran rejects curbs on its defensive power, regional presence

Revolutionary slogans apart, Irans foreign policy has focused on safeguarding independence, national sovereignty, and national interests and is characterised by conscious adjustment to the reality of regional interests in what has been described as the reality of strategic loneliness. This was evident in the ambivalent reaction to the U.S. attack on Iraq.

The end of the Khomeini era, and the period of Hashemi Rafsanjani, winessed Irans attempts to regain a role in regional affairs. These initiatives were built upon by former President Mohammad Khatami. A beginning was made with regional policy envisaging three circles: the Persian Gulf, the Arab East and Eurasia.

Apart from other matters, contention between the West and Iran developed on the latters nuclear energy plans, which were initially developed before the revolution with U.S. assistance, but viewed very differently subsequently. Iranian scientists in the meantime developed them to the stage when alarm bells were sounded about their intentions.

All of this is reflected in Irans relationship with the U.S., which underwent an overnight transition. Initially an ally, Iran became hostile and bitter in individual and national terms. Over time, the perception tended to change; in the past three decades, attempts have been made to mend matters. There were many issues of contention, each with its own subjective angles, but they came to be focused on the nuclear question.

In May 2003, and after Americas success in the Iraq war, Iran offered through the Swiss intermediary full negotiations with the U.S. This was ignored by the George Bush administration. In October 2003, the Tehran Declaration was reached between Iran and the European Union (EU). Iran agreed to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) including the Additional Protocol, and temporarily suspend all uranium enrichment. In September and October 2003, the IAEA conducted several facility inspections. In July 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was concluded between Iran and the P5+1 and the EU. The Donald Trump administration certified Irans compliance with the agreements twice in 2017, but in May 2018, withdrew from it promising a better deal. This did not happen.

After changes of administration in both Tehran and Washington, quiet negotiations were resumed in Vienna in the expectation of an early success with an Iranian insistence on returning to the original terms of the JCPOA. The Ukraine war and the western regime of sanctions on Russia become an impediment; so is the Iranian insistence that U.S. sanctions be lifted on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so effective in Iraq, Syria and with Hezbollah, and also playing a role in the Iranian economy. Some of the Gulf Cooperation Council states are supporting a powerful U.S.-lobby in this endeavour.

Despite being a victim of the regime of sanctions for long, Iran has been unrelenting in the development of military technologies. This is evident from its growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the region and its success in creating conventionally armed, precision-guided missiles and more effective air defence. Alongside is the apprehension of Iran crossing the much-dreaded nuclear threshold in a region that has India, Pakistan and Israel (undeclared) as nuclear capable nations. Some experts believe that if the stalemate in negotiations continues, Iran may even give notice of withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and, in a play on Israels policy of strategic ambiguity opt for an approach of creative ambiguity.

Also read | Stalled Iran nuclear talks have been reopened: EU

In the final analysis, the U.S. has a difficult choice between its strategic objectives, requirements, and capabilities in West Asia in relation to Israel and the conservative Arab bloc on the one hand and with the reality of Irans regional centrality and its implications, on the other. The failure of the so-called Arab Spring and the formalisation of the Abraham Accord is one aspect of it. Its domestic political compulsions and those of Israel were well reflected by the Israeli scholar Martin Kramer in 2011: In Israel we are for the status quo. Not only do we believe the status quo is sustainable, we think it is the job of the U.S. to sustain it. To overcome this impasse, the centrality of Iran in its own neighbourhood has to be recognised along with the latters commitment to regional cooperation.

Hamid Ansari is former Vice President of India

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Irans regional centrality and isolation - The Hindu

A firefighting airplane provided by Iran is expected to start aiding in efforts to extinguish the forest fire which has been raging since days in Balochistan's Koh-i-Suleman range, Forest Officer Ateeq Karar said on Monday.

A spokesperson for the Iranian consulate in Quetta said that the plane, Ilyushin 76, is the "biggest firefighter aircraft" in the world and would land at Rawalpindi's Nur Khan Airbase today.

The airplane would remain in Pakistan till the fire has been extinguished, the spokesperson added.

The fire in the Shirani forest started a week ago after the area was struck by lightning and has since engulfed hundreds of trees dotting the mountain range, home to the world's largest pine nuts (chilghoza) forest and connecting Balochistan, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

It has now turned into a raging inferno, forcing several residents of nearby villages to move to safer locations. Different species of animals and birds are also under threat.

The army, provincial and federal disaster management authorities and other departments are struggling to douse the flames. Three people have lost their lives so far while three others have been badly injured.

Read: Rain is biggest hope Operation on as Shirani forest fire continues to rage in Koh-i-Suleman range

The blaze continues to rage in an area spanning 20 kilometres in Shara Gulghai and 15km in Toorghardana, Forest Officer Kakar said.

Zhob Commissioner Bashir Ahmed Bazai also confirmed to Dawn.com that the fire had spread over a 25-35 kilometre-radius.

"Pine trees dating back more than 1,000-1,500 years are located in the forest. A pine tree starts giving fruit after 25 years. These [areas] are part of the world's largest pine forest," Kakar said.

The fire is expected to have damaged a large number of trees. The final tally of burnt trees will be confirmed after the fire has been extinguished, allowing officials to conduct a survey.

Meanwhile, Balochistan Chief Minister Mir Abdul Qudoos Bizenjo said that the provincial government had stepped up efforts to douse the fire.

In a statement, he said all resources were being utilised and the federal government was also fully cooperating on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's instructions.

The Balochistan government had started relief work since the day the fire began, he said, adding that Pakistan Army was helping in battling the blaze.

"Chemicals and water are being sprayed via helicopters," he further said.

The chief minister lamented the "large-scale damage" and said he was grieved at the loss of livelihood associated with the Shirani forest.

The government would not abandon its people at a difficult time, he assured.

Bizenjo earlier announced Rs1 million each for the families of three people who lost their lives and Rs500,000 for each injured. He said the federal government would also announce compensation for the fire victims.

"Fire is mostly on mountain tops (10,000 feet high) away from population centres but continues to spread due to hot weather, inaccessible nature of the terrain and dry winds; nearest village is approximately eight to 10km away from the location of the fire," the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in a statement last week.

A Frontier Corps wing and two army helicopters, along with local administration and Levies have been employed in firefighting and relief efforts.

One helicopter was being used to drop water and another to drop fireball and fire extinguishing chemicals to put out the fire.

As many as 400 fireballs, 200 fire suits, blankets, tents, mats and fire extinguishing equipment were provided by National Disaster Management Authority through FC Balochistan.

Last week, Prime Minister Shehbaz ordered authorities to take urgent steps to control the fire.

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Iranian firefighting aircraft to join operation as Balochistan forest inferno rages on - DAWN.com