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By Baria Alamuddin*

It turns out Irans intelligence services arent so intelligent after all.After a series of mortifying failures, Hossein Taeb Irans untouchable spy chief, with close ties to the supreme leader has been summarily thrown overboard.

This was a man who enjoyed immense power and unimaginable resources, and was responsible for crushing domestic dissent and eliminating threats and irritants overseas.

Taeb climbed to the top of Irans greasy pole in 2009 through playing a prominent role in the mass killing and torture of protesters. In recent days the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps lauded such atrocities as great accomplishments.

Taeb was exposed as comically incompetent when Israeli agents assassinated at least seven nuclear scientists and intelligence officials in the past two months. Attackers struck deep inside some of Irans most secret locations; they came out of nowhere then simply melted away, giving rise to confused reports in the Iranian media about killer robots, suicide drones, masked assassins and self-firing machineguns. Some of these sabotage operations were overseen from neighboring Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan. Those coordinating the strikes succeeded in recruiting significant numbers of Iranians with the necessary skills and connections, probably including employees at these sites, and even carried out two attacks on the flagship Natanz nuclear plant.

The rot goes all the way to the top: Gen Ali Nasiri, a senior Guards commander, was arrested for spying for Israel, and several dozen employees from the Ministry of Defenses missile development program are thought to have been detained on suspicion of leaking classified military information, including missile blueprints, to Israel.

Ayoob Entezari, an aerospace engineer, was fatally poisoned at a dinner party. The events host hasnt been seen since. Entezaris martyrdom was first denounced as an act of biological terror, before the Iranian media suddenly changed its story denying foul play, or even that Entezari held a sensitive role, in a transparent attempt to hide how badly the intelligence agencies had bungled. Again!

Hardly a week goes by without reports of mysterious explosions, assassinations, and hacking of critical infrastructure. Last week three Iranian steel factories, major suppliers to the Guards, were hit by a cyberattack.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett gloated about his octopus doctrine instead of focusing on the tentacles, he goes straight for the head. Unfortunately, although these attacks are shattering the regimes morale, they are mere pinpricks. If Israel wants to halt Irans nuclear program and its transnational paramilitary armies, full-on decapitation is required.

In the meantime, this demented octopus has flailed about, wildly threatening revenge but rarely delivering. Remember all the promises to unleash divine vengeance for the 2020 killing of Qassim Soleimani and Abu-Mahdi Al-Muhandis? Or to avenge the assassination of nuclear chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh?

Taeb sought retribution for the killing of Col. Sayad Khodaei, deputy commander of a covert Guards assassinations unit, by sending his goons to Turkey to kill Israeli diplomats and tourists. However, Israel tipped off Ankara and the conspiracy was thwarted. Similar operations appear to have been planned in Egypt. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu declared that Ankara would not tolerate terror attacks on its soil, an indication of how such botched operations are pulling Turkey closer into the coalescing alliance of anti-Iran states.

Entrenched Iranian positions and outlandish new demands are derailing the revival of the Iran nuclear deal. Neither side holds out much hope for success, but they fear the consequences of admitting that talks have failed.

Nevertheless, American officials asserted that Iran had been severely discountenanced by prospects of a regional defense pact. Israel has acquiesced to the supply of sophisticated air defense systems, radars, and cyber technology to new allies, the US is encouraging Egypt and Jordan to deepen security ties with Israel, and there is the game-changing prospect that Israel and Saudi Arabia could be part of such an alliance.

Such nervousness is certainly motivating Tehrans recent outreach to Riyadh. Saudi officials are right to not trust a word they hear, stressing that they need to see de-escalatory actions, not empty words. Perhaps the Iranian presidents recent voicing of support for a ceasefire in Yemen is a move in this direction.

Lack of progress is spurring Iran to apply pressure elsewhere, including efforts to take over the government in Iraq, and an incident in which Israel shot down three Hezbollah drones near an Israeli gas rig in an area of sea claimed by Lebanon.

The region is changing, alliances are changing These are serious threats that need to be thwarted, one senior Iranian official nervously told Reuters. However, another one commented: Our nuclear program is advancing every day. Time is on our side.

The Revolutionary Guards probably dont want a revived nuclear deal. The paradoxical impact of sanctions has been that most oil is smuggled out via their vast economic conglomerates, and as the price soars they are making a killing. Their revenues now mostly come from outside the official government budget, something that wouldnt be tenable if the deal were revived hence the deliberately obstructive demand that sanctions be lifted from the the Guards economic empire, Khatam Al-Anbiya.

Iran meanwhile is disintegrating from the inside. Last month there were major anti-government protests and strikes throughout the country. Pensioners have been demonstrating over the wiping out of their pensions by runaway inflation, the result of incompetent regime policies. The currency plunged 25 percent in four months.

The Islamic Republic is its own worst enemy. The most likely prospect for slaying this dragon is collapse from within: Iranians hate this regime and much of the country is a patchwork of oppressed minorities who sooner or later will unite to oust the detested ayatollahs.

Regional powers are right to put their energies into a defensive alliance to counter Iranian expansionism; the only regret is that this didnt happen 40 years ago.

However, the most fertile avenue for ending such maleficence is for a focused campaign within Iran itself, capitalizing on the ayatollahs incompetence, misgovernance and unpopularity.

The Islamic Republic is a time bomb waiting to implode through the accumulation of its own failures. Never has there been a better time for regional powers to light the fuse and put an end to this evil once and for all.

Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

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Humiliation Piled On Humiliation For Iran's Spy Agencies OpEd - Eurasia Review

In June, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro arrived in Iran for a two-day visit, marking the first time in five years the leader alighted in the equally isolated Islamic Republic.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who has crafted his foreign policy around anti-US motifs, is investing in elevating relations with Venezuela as Iran misses out on boosting relations with traditional Asian allies and lacks a roadmap for renewing ties with the West.

During the visit, Iran and Venezuela signed a 20-year cooperation agreement, the details of which have not been made public.

But for the two countries whose economies have been crushed under years of biting US sanctions, there is potent symbolism in giving new impetus to ties that were mostly stagnant under Raisis predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, whose primary policy priority was to normalize ties with the West.

On the second day of Maduros tour, Iran formally delivered an Aframax tanker known as Yoraco, a vessel designed to carry 800,000 barrels of oil to Venezuela.

The Yoraco was built by the SADRA shipyard as part of a 60 million euro deal, which the Islamic Republic says has been paid in full despite doubts that heavily-sanctioned Venezuela is liquid enough to do so.

In 2006, the two sides floated ambitious plans to boost bilateral trade to US$11 billion per year, notably at a time then-hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had cultivated genial relations with the late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez. Then, the alliance was seemingly the vanguard of a new transregional anti-US bulwark.

President Rouhanis overtures to the US and EU overshadowed ties with Venezuela. Despite grand plans, trade volumes are still negligible. In 2021, bilateral trade amounted to piddling $122 million, constituting a tiny fraction of the South American nations overseas commerce.

But latest indications are emerging that connections are picking up and the two international pariahs, in a joint bid to withstand and rebuff international sanctions, are exploring new realms of collaboration.

Iran-Venezuela relations have been widely described as rhetorical and ideological, but the two anti-US states are translating those commonalities into action to shield each other from the chronic isolation and economic hardship caused by the sanctions.

Amid acute fuel shortages and while Maduro was mired in a domestic fracas after the contested 2019 presidential election, Iran dispatched several shipments of gasoline to Venezuela.

In May 2020, a flotilla of five Iranian oil tankers carried 1.53 million barrels of gasoline from the port of Bandar Abbas to Venezuelas refineries. A sixth ship sailed through the Caribbean Sea and docked in La Guayra, offloading 345,000 barrels.

The second cargo, comprising four tankers carrying 1.12 million barrels of petroleum, was confiscated by the US Department of Justice in August 2020.

Venezuelas second-largest refinery, Cardon, took delivery of 200,000 barrels of Iranian heavy crude earlier in April, and another 400,000 barrels were discharged at Puerto Jos in May.

Venezuelas state oil and gas company PDVSA continues to receive supplies of condensate from its Iranian partners, and the El Palito refinery has resumed a crude distillation unit through elaborate repairs and upgrading completed using equipment acquired from Iran.

From 2001 to 2013, nearly 300 agreements were signed by the governments of Tehran and Caracas on a range of projects including affordable housing, cement plants, car factories, hospitals, department stores, dairy farms and seafood companies. Investment and loans made by Iranian entities in Venezuela are estimated to value between $15 and $20 billion.

As the embattled Raisi administration turns to Maduros Venezuela as an economic lifeline and a political ally, Caracas is embarking on a delicate rapprochement with the United States, which in light of Russias invasion of Ukraine and spiraling global oil prices, could restore Venezuela as a key global oil exporter.

Irans outreach to Venezuela is partly driven by economic interests and partly a desire to gain a foothold in Americas backyard, as the government parlance asserts. That explains the increasing appetite of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for building up ties in Latin America and even entertaining the idea of a military presence in Venezuelas waters.

But according to Richard Hanania, president of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology and a research fellow at the University of Texas, Iran and Venezuela ultimately have little to offer each other.

The problem for each of these states is lack of access to global capital. Theyre both financially isolated from the rest of the world, so [theyre] not really in a position to help one another. Some of the things theyre promoting, like direct flights, should have practically no impact on geopolitics or the global economy, he said.

This seems like a political ploy more than anything, [and] it is difficult to see how a trip by Maduro to Iran could have been economically justified. It looks bad for a nation to be isolated from the rest of the world, so its beneficial to show oneself with friends, regardless of how useful those friends are, Hanania told Asia Times.

Other critics concur that the small, beleaguered Latin American nation is incapable of making any meaningful contribution to the economic rehabilitation of Iran while a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and related sanctions relief are still distant hopes.

Venezuela doesnt have much to offer Iran. Its economy is in shambles it may, even, be in worse shape than Irans economy, and its oil and petrochemical facilities are in a state of disrepair. Iran has had some success at selling its oil to China and others in defiance of US sanctions, but Venezuelas oil sales have dropped to nothing, both due to sanctions and the physical deterioration of its facilities and oil fields, said Gregory Brew, a historian of Iran-US relations and Henry A Kissinger postdoctoral fellow at Yale University.

So, the gains for Iran are largely political and strategic, strengthening ties with a state antagonistic toward the US at a time when US-Iran relations are set to worsen, given the declining chances of a return to the JCPOA, he said.

Brew told Asia Times the United States is interested in bringing Venezuela back into the global oil market and efforts are being tentatively pursued with that goal in mind.

While there are no US oil companies with an open interest in pursuing commercial ties with Iran, Chevron maintains a standing interest in Venezuelan oil and continues to lobby for an end to the sanctions regime.

Venezuela arguably has more to gain from a rapprochement with the US than with a new relationship with Tehran and that may mitigate the effectiveness of Tehrans outreach to Caracas, assuming the US effort bears fruit.

Claudia Gago Ostos, a research intern at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a Washington-based non-partisan think tank, argues Iran and Venezuela can benefit each other but not enough to be mutual economic lifelines.

With oil prices rising, certain benefits or a little breathing room might come, but not enough to consider either country as a lifeline against sanctions.

Similarly, Iran has signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with China, and a proposed 20-year deal with Russia exists, although both lack details and concrete plans. More profitable contracts for both countries could come from their alliances with China, Turkey or Russia, all more prominent economic players, she said.

In the first year after the signing of the JCPOA under then-president Hassan Rouhani, the heads of state and governments of Greece, Switzerland, Italy, Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Finland, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia traveled to Tehran, exemplifying an unprecedented eagerness by EU member states and wider Europe to revive relations with Iran.

Today, toward the end of President Raisis first year in office, no Western leader has visited Iran, underscoring its enduring isolation.

Irans renewed interest in forging close ties with Venezuela does not mean that Tehrans relations with the West are inevitably going to be tense and fraught for the foreseeable future, but it does show Tehran is hedging its bets on improved ties with the United States, which is not surprising given the extreme hostility of the Trump administration toward Iran and the slow progress of negotiations with the Biden administration on reviving the JCPOA, said David Wight, a visiting assistant professor of history at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro.

As the Biden administration navigates options to bring down the global oil prices, including by engaging Venezuela, experts believe Irans continued bromance with its Latin American partner could be a double-edged sword of risks and benefits as long as relations with the US are not restored.

I think its risky for Iran to court Venezuela like this. It strengthens the argument among American hawks that Iran is an offensively-minded country that threatens America rather than a defensively-oriented country focused on its own region. This viewpoint could be used to topple the regime in Tehran, ventured Max Abrahms, an associate professor of political science at Northeastern University.

On the other hand, Venezuela arguably gives Iran some strategic benefits in terms of projecting power into the Americas, so there are cross-cutting strategic effects of this bilateral relationship, he added.

Follow Kourosh Ziabari on Twitter at @KZiabari

Original post:
What's really behind the Iran-Venezuela bromance? - Asia Times

TEHRAN Iranian authorities have recovered an Iron Age clay jar from a gang of unauthorized diggers in Mazandaran province, northern Iran.

The suspects were detained and surrendered to the judicial system for further investigation and trial, IRNA quoted a local police commander as saying on Monday.

Preliminary investigations suggest the earthen jar dates 2,500 years, the commander said.

Sandwiched between the towering Alborz mountain range and the Caspian Sea, Mazandaran has a rich yet turbulent history. An early civilization flourished at the beginning of the first millennium BC in Mazandaran (Tabarestan).

Its insecure eastern and southeastern borders were crossed by Mongol invaders in the 13th and 14th centuries. Cossacks attacked the region in 1668 but were repulsed. It was ceded to the Russian Empire by a treaty in 1723, but the Russians were never secure in their occupation. The area was restored to Iran under the Qajar dynasty.

The northern section of the region consists of lowland alongside the Caspian and upland along the northern slopes of the Alborz Mountains. Marshy backlands dominate the coastal plain, and extensive gravel fans fringe the mountains. The climate is permanently subtropical and humid, with very hot summers.

AFM

Continued here:
Iron Age pottery recovered from excavators in northern Iran - Tehran Times

TEHRAN Iran started the 2022 Volleyball Nations League (VNL) in a shaky way but the Persians, at the moment, have a chance to book their place in the competitions quarterfinals.

Iran sit eighth in the table and the top seven teams as well as hosts Italy will qualify for the quarterfinals.

Iran have earned four wins in the previous two weeks and suffered four losses.

Behrouz Ataeis men have defeated China, Australia, the U.S. and Canada so far and lost to the Netherlands, Japan, Bulgaria and Brazil.

Iran will start the Week 3 with a match against Poland Tuesday night.

The National Team are scheduled to meet Italy on Thursday and face Slovenia and Serbia in the following day.

Iran bagged disappointing results against Japan, the Netherlands and Bulgaria but defeated powerhouses the U.S. and showed a glittering performance against defending champions Brazil.

Young players namely, Amin Esmaeilnezhad, Amirhossein Esfandiar, Mahdi Jelveh, Amirreza Sarlak, Amirhossein Toukhteh, and Morteza Sharifi have already shown that they are ready to fill vacancy of stars Saeid Marouf, Mohammad Mousavi, Amir Ghafour, Shahram Mahmoudi, and Farhad Ghaemi and.

Booking a place in the competitions quarterfinals will be a big boost for the reinforced team.

Iran need at least two wins out of four to seal a berth in the final eight.

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Reinforced Iran determined to book place in quarters - Tehran Times

Last week, King Abdullah II of Jordan said he would support the creation of a military alliance similar to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The king pointed to the current challenges Middle Eastern countries are facing to emphasize the need for a joint effort.

Calls for an Alliance Like NATO in Middle East?

In addition to outlining how Moscows invasion of Ukraine is impacting the region, King Abdullah discussed Irans destabilizing behavior and the Israel-Palestine crisis to outline the need for a unified front. His remarks follow Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantzs announcement that Israel has joined a U.S.-led joint air defense network dubbed the Middle East Air Defense Alliance (MEAD).

In an interview with CNBC, the Jordanian monarch said he would be one of the first people who would endorse a Middle East version of the largest intergovernmental military alliance that exists today. The king insisted that a period of cooperation must replace the near-constant strife that has plagued the region for many years.

Additionally, Russias invasion of Ukraine has endangered food supplies in the region. Ukraine is one of the worlds largest exporters of wheat and corn. Since Russia has imposed blockades on the countrys ports, the movement of these resources has been stagnant. Earlier this month, Jordan unveiled a ten-year-long development strategy aimed at reviving the countrys struggling economy. Regional conflict has certainly impacted Jordans slow economic growth, making a cooperative truce even more vital to the king.

Referencing the Israel-Palestinian conflict, King Abdullah indicated only time will tell if countries in the region could work toward a vision where prosperity is the name of the game.

Irans Destabilizing Behavior

The king then suggested that the Islamic Republic of Irans role in the region had become problematic. Although Irans regime was not called out directly in his remarks, Abdullah referenced the role Shiite militias continue to play in the Middle East. He expressed that Irans hostile actions along with its ongoing nuclear program are raising fears everywhere in the region and has transferred Iran into a common enemy or adversary to many Arab and non-Arab countries in the Middle East.

Irans proxy warfare has escalated in recent years. Across the region, Iranian-backed groups function to support the regime, destabilizing the countries they operate in. Iran is also in the process of rapidly expanding its ballistic missile arsenal, posing a critical threat to its nearby adversaries.

Due to Irans malign behavior in recent years, U.S. allies in the Middle East have rekindled cooperative efforts. In 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Egypt signed the Al-Ula Declaration. This joint agreement ended a rift that divided the Gulf states for nearly three years. In part, the solidarity pact aims to counter an increasingly dangerous Iran. Additionally, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan formalized normalization ties with Israel through the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords the same year. The MEAD joint air-defense network described by Israels Defense Minister would likely piggyback off the relationships strengthened by the Al-Ula Declaration and the Abraham Accords.

While the formation of a Middle East NATO may not be as imminent as desired by King Abdullah, alliances in the region are shifting. Iran has become increasingly isolated from its neighbors as Israel has been more warmly received.

Maya Carlin is a Middle East Defense Editor with 19FortyFive. She is also an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel.

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Iran Would Hate This: A NATO for the Middle East - 19FortyFive