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The U.S. has a tough choice between its strategic objectives in West Asia and the implications of Irans location

The U.S. has a tough choice between its strategic objectives in West Asia and the implications of Irans location

A recent essay in Foreign Affairs argues that Tehran has not achieved any of its lofty ambitions, but it has made progress towards them and it is feeling emboldened by its recent successes. It argues that Iran is both self-assured and deeply insecure, displays external vigour that conceals ultimately incurable internal maladies, has built its foreign policy on the twin pillars of confronting the United States and Israel and is closer to realising its vision than it was a decade ago. Yet, despite its success in cultivating militant groups across West Asia, there are tangible signs that it has overreached and that two-thirds of young Arabs in the region now view Iran as an adversary. The essay concedes that Washingtons perception of Iran has suffered from four decades of estrangement and strategic narcissism. Given the geopolitical and historical backdrop of Iran, does this reflect the totality of the countrys interests and strategic perceptions?

A decade earlier, John Limbert, former senior diplomat who was one of the hostages of the embassy siege of 1979, felt certain rules seem to guide U.S. policy over the years. They include: (i) Never walk through an open door. Instead, bang your head against a wall; (ii) Never say yes to anything that the other side proposes. Doing so will make you weak; and (iii) The other side is infinitely hostile, devious, domineering and irrational. It is the embodiment of all that is evil.

With an area of 1.6 million sq km, Iran is the 18th largest country in the world in terms of area. It shares land borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and Iraq and maritime borders with Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman. In its long history it has experienced periods of conflict, imperial dominance and foreign occupation and most recently, a revolution. All these left a mark on its collective memory. Its culture has been hugely influential in world history and rightly depicted as an Empire of the Mind.

Since the revolution of 1979, and the end of the U.S. security umbrella under the latters Twin Pillars policy, Iran has been concerned about national security given its long and porous borders with Iraq and Afghanistan. Refugees have poured in from Afghanistan and an armed aggression resulted in the decade-long war with Iraq. With Pakistan, there was a moment of unease after the Bangladesh War of 1971, but was soon set at rest by India.

Despite the upheavals of the post-revolutionary era and the war, Iran maintained a degree of political stability. This was thanks to its power structure, based on a multitude of loosely connected and generally fiercely competitive power centres. These power centres remain formally grounded in the Constitution and the structure emanating from it and actually grounded in the religio-political associations emanating from the clerical leadership that retains an exclusive grip on state power. Each of these also has its own factional tussles with its own power to facilitate or obstruct individual policies. The locus of individual decisions therefore is always a challenging exercise.

Also read | Iran rejects curbs on its defensive power, regional presence

Revolutionary slogans apart, Irans foreign policy has focused on safeguarding independence, national sovereignty, and national interests and is characterised by conscious adjustment to the reality of regional interests in what has been described as the reality of strategic loneliness. This was evident in the ambivalent reaction to the U.S. attack on Iraq.

The end of the Khomeini era, and the period of Hashemi Rafsanjani, winessed Irans attempts to regain a role in regional affairs. These initiatives were built upon by former President Mohammad Khatami. A beginning was made with regional policy envisaging three circles: the Persian Gulf, the Arab East and Eurasia.

Apart from other matters, contention between the West and Iran developed on the latters nuclear energy plans, which were initially developed before the revolution with U.S. assistance, but viewed very differently subsequently. Iranian scientists in the meantime developed them to the stage when alarm bells were sounded about their intentions.

All of this is reflected in Irans relationship with the U.S., which underwent an overnight transition. Initially an ally, Iran became hostile and bitter in individual and national terms. Over time, the perception tended to change; in the past three decades, attempts have been made to mend matters. There were many issues of contention, each with its own subjective angles, but they came to be focused on the nuclear question.

In May 2003, and after Americas success in the Iraq war, Iran offered through the Swiss intermediary full negotiations with the U.S. This was ignored by the George Bush administration. In October 2003, the Tehran Declaration was reached between Iran and the European Union (EU). Iran agreed to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) including the Additional Protocol, and temporarily suspend all uranium enrichment. In September and October 2003, the IAEA conducted several facility inspections. In July 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was concluded between Iran and the P5+1 and the EU. The Donald Trump administration certified Irans compliance with the agreements twice in 2017, but in May 2018, withdrew from it promising a better deal. This did not happen.

After changes of administration in both Tehran and Washington, quiet negotiations were resumed in Vienna in the expectation of an early success with an Iranian insistence on returning to the original terms of the JCPOA. The Ukraine war and the western regime of sanctions on Russia become an impediment; so is the Iranian insistence that U.S. sanctions be lifted on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so effective in Iraq, Syria and with Hezbollah, and also playing a role in the Iranian economy. Some of the Gulf Cooperation Council states are supporting a powerful U.S.-lobby in this endeavour.

Despite being a victim of the regime of sanctions for long, Iran has been unrelenting in the development of military technologies. This is evident from its growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the region and its success in creating conventionally armed, precision-guided missiles and more effective air defence. Alongside is the apprehension of Iran crossing the much-dreaded nuclear threshold in a region that has India, Pakistan and Israel (undeclared) as nuclear capable nations. Some experts believe that if the stalemate in negotiations continues, Iran may even give notice of withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and, in a play on Israels policy of strategic ambiguity opt for an approach of creative ambiguity.

Also read | Stalled Iran nuclear talks have been reopened: EU

In the final analysis, the U.S. has a difficult choice between its strategic objectives, requirements, and capabilities in West Asia in relation to Israel and the conservative Arab bloc on the one hand and with the reality of Irans regional centrality and its implications, on the other. The failure of the so-called Arab Spring and the formalisation of the Abraham Accord is one aspect of it. Its domestic political compulsions and those of Israel were well reflected by the Israeli scholar Martin Kramer in 2011: In Israel we are for the status quo. Not only do we believe the status quo is sustainable, we think it is the job of the U.S. to sustain it. To overcome this impasse, the centrality of Iran in its own neighbourhood has to be recognised along with the latters commitment to regional cooperation.

Hamid Ansari is former Vice President of India

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Irans regional centrality and isolation - The Hindu

A firefighting airplane provided by Iran is expected to start aiding in efforts to extinguish the forest fire which has been raging since days in Balochistan's Koh-i-Suleman range, Forest Officer Ateeq Karar said on Monday.

A spokesperson for the Iranian consulate in Quetta said that the plane, Ilyushin 76, is the "biggest firefighter aircraft" in the world and would land at Rawalpindi's Nur Khan Airbase today.

The airplane would remain in Pakistan till the fire has been extinguished, the spokesperson added.

The fire in the Shirani forest started a week ago after the area was struck by lightning and has since engulfed hundreds of trees dotting the mountain range, home to the world's largest pine nuts (chilghoza) forest and connecting Balochistan, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

It has now turned into a raging inferno, forcing several residents of nearby villages to move to safer locations. Different species of animals and birds are also under threat.

The army, provincial and federal disaster management authorities and other departments are struggling to douse the flames. Three people have lost their lives so far while three others have been badly injured.

Read: Rain is biggest hope Operation on as Shirani forest fire continues to rage in Koh-i-Suleman range

The blaze continues to rage in an area spanning 20 kilometres in Shara Gulghai and 15km in Toorghardana, Forest Officer Kakar said.

Zhob Commissioner Bashir Ahmed Bazai also confirmed to Dawn.com that the fire had spread over a 25-35 kilometre-radius.

"Pine trees dating back more than 1,000-1,500 years are located in the forest. A pine tree starts giving fruit after 25 years. These [areas] are part of the world's largest pine forest," Kakar said.

The fire is expected to have damaged a large number of trees. The final tally of burnt trees will be confirmed after the fire has been extinguished, allowing officials to conduct a survey.

Meanwhile, Balochistan Chief Minister Mir Abdul Qudoos Bizenjo said that the provincial government had stepped up efforts to douse the fire.

In a statement, he said all resources were being utilised and the federal government was also fully cooperating on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's instructions.

The Balochistan government had started relief work since the day the fire began, he said, adding that Pakistan Army was helping in battling the blaze.

"Chemicals and water are being sprayed via helicopters," he further said.

The chief minister lamented the "large-scale damage" and said he was grieved at the loss of livelihood associated with the Shirani forest.

The government would not abandon its people at a difficult time, he assured.

Bizenjo earlier announced Rs1 million each for the families of three people who lost their lives and Rs500,000 for each injured. He said the federal government would also announce compensation for the fire victims.

"Fire is mostly on mountain tops (10,000 feet high) away from population centres but continues to spread due to hot weather, inaccessible nature of the terrain and dry winds; nearest village is approximately eight to 10km away from the location of the fire," the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in a statement last week.

A Frontier Corps wing and two army helicopters, along with local administration and Levies have been employed in firefighting and relief efforts.

One helicopter was being used to drop water and another to drop fireball and fire extinguishing chemicals to put out the fire.

As many as 400 fireballs, 200 fire suits, blankets, tents, mats and fire extinguishing equipment were provided by National Disaster Management Authority through FC Balochistan.

Last week, Prime Minister Shehbaz ordered authorities to take urgent steps to control the fire.

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Iranian firefighting aircraft to join operation as Balochistan forest inferno rages on - DAWN.com

Internet in the cities with ongoing protests is cut or partially throttled.

May 18, 2022, 10:07 AM

5 min read

LONDON -- Hundreds of Iranians have taken to the streets in cities across the country, protesting against the crippling political and economic situation. Unofficial reports say security forces have killed at least four people.

Coming from all walks of life, protestors shout slogans that target the top officials of the clerical system, including the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and President Ebrahim Raisi.

The internet in the cities with ongoing protests is either cut or partially throttled by the government in an attempt to control the spreading of the news.

The unrest started after the government cut subsidies on essential food items such as cooking oil, eggs and milk last Wednesday. For example, the price of cooking increased more than 400% overnight.

However, dominant slogans in the protests like "Down with Khamenei, Down with dictator" and "We don't want mullah's ruling" indicate that protesting the ailing economy follows another primary demand: overthrowing the system.

"The establishment suffers from lack of legitimacy," Mohammad Mosaed, a dissident journalist in exile, told ABC News. "It has failed to fulfill the promises it made 43 years ago like freedom and justice." Mosaed had to leave Iran after another series of protests in November 2019.

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi looks on during a meeting between Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, in Tehran, Iran May 12, 2022.

With hundreds of people killed and thousands arrested, the nationwide protests in 2019 were the deadliest since the Islamic revolution in 1979. The exact number of killings still remains unknown due to the strict censorship of the media and cutting off the whole country's internet for 10 days. Those protests also started after fuel went up three times its cost and soon spread all around the country, especially in small cities.

"The current protests are similar to those in 2019 as they are not bound to Tehran that has a bigger middle-class population, but are rather spread all over the country, especially in smaller towns which are economically deprived," Mosaed said.

Iran's state media has repeatedly blamed the West's economic sanctions for the hardship the country faces. They are the sanctions that mainly aim to restrict Iran's nuclear program.

In 2015, Iran committed to restricting its nuclear program in return for the West's commitment to easing the sanctions in a deal with the world powers known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, in May 2018, then-President Donald Trump pulled out of the pact, leaving it a matter of renegotiation. Four years later, after rounds of talks, the process of reviving JCPOA is still stalled due to disagreements between Iran and other parties -- the U.S., France, Germany, the U.K., Russia and China.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends a meeting, in Tehran, Iran, May 12, 2022.

However, unlike the Islamic Republic's blame narrative, many believe Western sanctions are not the only reason or even the main reason for the situation.

"The recent crippling situation resulted from having totally incompetent leaders for years, widespread corruption, and then the sanctions," Mosaed said.

After four decades of giving several chances to different parties to lead the country, Mosaed believes that more and more people are coming to the understanding that the incompetency and corruption of the leaders must be the main subject of the protests.

"Many of these people used to form the main body of the establishment's loyal patrons, and now the former patrons have turned to fierce protesters," he added.

Read more here:
Bloody protests in Iran are not just about food prices - ABC News

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While the U.S. and Iran have so far failed to agree on terms for a new nuclear agreement, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned that the Islamic nation is just weeks away from having the necessary materials for a nuclear weapon.

Gantz tweeted the claim in Hebrew when posting about remarks he delivered at Israel's Reichman University. The Jerusalem Post reported on the speech, relaying that Iran currently produces uranium at an enrichment level of 20% while already having 60 kilograms of 60% enriched material. Uranium enriched at a 90% level is needed for a weapon.

IRAN PROTESTS CONTINUE INTO SECOND WEEK AS STATE DEPARTMENT TWEETS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT FOR PROTESTERS

"Iran continues to accumulate irreversible knowledge and experience in the development, research, production and operation of advanced centrifuges," Gantz said during his address, stating that Iran is working on 1,000 new advanced centrifuges, including at an underground facility near Natanz.

Iranian President Ebrahim Reisi participates in an exhibition organized by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on the occasion of the National Nuclear Technology Day at the International Conference Center in Tehran, Iran on April 9, 2022. Mohammad Eslami, Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, accompanied the Iranian president during his visit to the exhibition. (IranianPresidency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Iranian President Ebrahim Reisi makes a speech during his visit to an exhibition organized by the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran on the occasion of the National Nuclear Technology Day at the International Conference Center in Tehran, Iran on April 9, 2022. (IranianPresidency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Gantz also said that Iran has been keeping inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency from accessing their systems.

Gantz said a "multidimensional" international response is needed to prevent all out war with Iran.

"Today, the prices for tackling the Iranian challenge on the global and regional levels are higher than they were a year ago and lower than they will be within a year," Gantz said.

The defense minister noted that Iran has been making a number of other improvements to their military capabilities, "including cruise missiles, surface-to-surface missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles that have a range of thousands of kilometers."

A nuclear Iran could pose an existential threat to Israel as Iran's leadership has threatened to destroy the Jewish state.

Meanwhile. the Biden administration has been trying to enter into a new nuclear deal with Tehran, years after then-President Donald Trump withdrew from the international Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that critics said did not do enough to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon in the long term or properly address their ballistic missile program.

IRAN PROTESTS SPREAD AS DEMONSTRATORS DEMAND CHANGE AND CHEAPER FOOD

Iran has been calling for the U.S. to remove their Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the State Department's list of foreign terrorist organizations as part of any agreement. So far, the administration has resisted, as veterans, Gold Star families, and lawmakers in Washington, D.C. have warned not to do this.

At the same time, Iranian leadership faces pressure from its own people, who have been protesting in response to a floundering economy.

The protests began last week when the government slashed food subsidies on eggs, milk, chicken, and cooking oil leading to price rises of some 300%. Since then, protests have spread to many areas of the country and according to observers have taken on a much more anti-government current.

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Protesters, showing no fear of retribution by the state security services have been heard shouting, "Death toKhamenei!Death to Raisi!" referring to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who has promised to create jobs, lift sanctions, and rescue the economy.

Over the weekend ,reports said up to five people were killed following a crackdown by authorities. A semi-official government news agency put the number of dead from the protests at one according to the Associated Press.

Fox News' Ben Evansky and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Iran weeks away from acquiring materials for first nuclear weapon ...

Iran is attempting to complete the manufacture and installation of 1,000 IR6 advanced centrifuges for its nuclear development program, according to Defense Minister Benny Gantz. Addressing a May 17 conference at Reichman University, Gantz said Iran was placing the centrifuges in various locations, including in a new underground facility it was building near the existing central enrichment facility in the central Iran town of Natanz.

Iran stands just a few weeks away from accumulating fissile material that will be sufficient for a first bomb, holds 60 kilograms of enriched material at 60%, produces metallic uranium at the enrichment level of 20% and prevents the IAEA from accessing its facilities, he added.

Gantzs remarks reflect Israels latest intelligence assessments to the effect that Iran is taking advantage of the stalled negotiations with world powers on the future of its nuclear program to continue advancing the project. Israel reportedly believes the advanced centrifuges are designed for a nuclear breakout at some point and uranium enrichment to 90% military-grade level within a short time.

In light of these Iranian activities, Israel is seriously concerned about the lack of progress in the Vienna negotiations. Despite objections to the current version of the agreement, Israel had long been hoping for a speedy signature of the document, which would have at least set back the Iranian program until such time as Israel completes its preparations to attack Irans nuclear facilities.

Reports these days suggest negotiations have reached a dead end over substantive issues and no breakthrough appears in sight. Meanwhile, as Iran forges ahead with its program, the feeling in Jerusalem is that Israel is the only country in the world still trying to stop it. This is the backdrop for Gantzs departure for Washington the day after his speech for meetings with national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. He brings with him the latest intelligence information and an Israeli request to up US pressure on Iran.

Israeli security sources say Israel would like to see increasingly harsh sanctions on Iran, more significant US activity to curb Irans emerging nuclear capabilities and, of course, a credible US military threat to destroy them. Israel believes such a threat would validate the military option that it is readying.

However, Israel is not holding out too much hope in the Biden administration in this regard in light of recent messages from Washington indicating that Irans nuclear ambitions are not a high priority for the administration.

Israel, for its part, is advancing plans to strike Iran on its own. A large-scale,monthlong military drill launched last week to simulate a multifront war will reportedly include a long-range air force flight simulating a widespread attack in Iran. The flight will take place in the fourth week of the exercise, between May 29 and June 2, with the participation of American refueling planes that would enable Israels fighter jets to cover the 2,100-kilometer (1,300-mile) distance in real time.

The very publication of the upcoming drill is evidently also designed to serve as a threat against Iran by indicating that Israel was making preparations but would need up to one year to develop initial attack capability. The broader attack plan would apparently be ready within three years or more, Israeli officials say.

The Chariots of Fire drill was scheduled for May 2021 but was aborted due to the breakout of hostilities with Gaza and ensuing riots in mixed Arab-Jewish cities in Israel. The military considered scrapping this years exercise too, in light of the recent spate of Palestinian terrorist attacks on Israeli urban centers, but eventually decided to go ahead after making needed adjustments.

According to the imaginary drill scenario, several members of Irans proxy militia in Lebanon, Hezbollah, are killed during an Israeli air raid on Iran-linked targets in Syria, prompting retaliation by the terrorist organization. The ensuing skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah escalate into full-scale war. The Palestinian Islamist Hamas and Islamic Jihad organization in Gaza join the fray, firing missiles into Israel, while Palestinians in the West Bank take to the streets and launch terror attacks against Israelis. At the same time, militants from among Israels 21% Arab minority come to the aid of their brethren by rioting and blocking major roads and intersections to delay the advance of Israeli forces.

Irans proxies, according to his scenario, also send unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into Israels air space. On May 17, Gantz personally confirmed reports that Iranian drones were intercepted over Iraq in February. He said the UAVs appear to have been launched by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and because of the parachutes attached to them, Israel believes they were expected to land in Judea and Samaria. This week, the Israeli military announced that it had shot down a drone belonging to Hezbollah that crossed over from Lebanon into Israeli territory.

Gantz also said Iran was developing different operational precision systems such as cruise and ballistic missiles and drones able to fly thousands of kilometers. The quantity of this strategic weapon in the hands of Iranian emissaries has increased significantly in the past year. In Iraq, there are hundreds of [munitions]; many dozens have been added this year. In Yemen, the number of [munitions] has increased in the past year, and the Houthis hold dozens of them.

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Israels army simulates attack on Iran - Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the ...