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Flag in front of Irans Foreign Ministry building in Tehran(Morteza Nikoubazl/Reuters)

There is speculation that the Vienna negotiations will conclude with a deal in the next 72 hours. Reza Zandi, an Iranian oil and gas analyst, tweeted:

Russias chief negotiator in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, is sending similar signals, saying that steps are being taken to finalise the deal:

Iran, which has been given practically every concession from spineless American negotiators, is about to gain the biggest win of all: a market desperate for oil.According to Markets Insider, in response to these hints, oil prices dropped from their highest levels since 2008:

Brent crude, the international benchmark, had been up as much as 6.1% at $119.84 before reversing course. Brent lost 3.1% then pared the decline to 0.5%. West Texas Intermediate crude had been up as much as 5.3% at $116.57, then fell by nearly 4% before paring the intraday loss to 0.4%.

As war rages on after Russias invasion of Ukraine, oil prices have exceeded $100 a barrel. With Putin showing no signs of deescalation, oil prices are likely to remain high. This means that Iran is about to inherit, as Mr. Zandi puts it, golden circumstances for a reentry into the oil market.

With Vienna negotiations coinciding with Putins invasion, some have suggested a deal with Iran as a solution to impeding oil shortages. Ellen Wald from the Atlantic Council suggested that a nuclear deal could help tamp down spiking oil prices:

Of course, there are more important national security issues involved in the relationship with Iran and those must take precedence. However, if the focus is just on the problem of high oil prices, a deal with Iran would help. There has been significant progress in negotiations over the past two weeks, and Iran analysts seem positive that a deal could be reached soon. According to the latest deal under discussion, an agreement would lift sanctions in the second phase of implementation, which could be between one and three months after signing. If this moves forward, Iran potentially could put between 67 million and 87 million barrels of condensate and crude oil that it has in storage on the global market immediately. In fact, Iran is communicating with potential buyers in Korea, a sign that they believe a deal and sanctions relief is possible.

The Islamic Republic is eager to show that it can quickly supply oil. Earlier today (auspicious timing, huh?), Iranian oil minister Javad Owji said that as soon as a deal is struck in Vienna, Iran can achieve maximum oil production capacity in less than one or two months. The Islamic Republic currentlyhas approximately 80 million barrels of oil in storage and could produce up to 1.2 million barrels a day.No wonder oil markets are in a frenzy.

But this deal wasnt meant to shore up the global oil market. This deal was meant to rein in Irans nuclear capabilities and its destabilizing behavior (it does neither, by the way). Now, Iran isnt just getting $8 million to $10 million in frozen oil money; its scoring a particularly advantageous oil market with which to fund its regional terrorist proxies.

Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told National Reviewthat the Iranian regime has driven their economy into the ground even before sanctions. Should sanctions be lifted, the cash infusion really will allow them to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. This is especially true for Irans terroristic proxies: A new deal and end to maximum pressure will throw a lifeline to Hezbollah. Rubin, who visited Hezbollahs territory in southern Lebanon last year, observed a major decline in Irans favorite proxy, observing that the group was losing its members in droves as the money dried up.

As if that wasnt enough, the Biden administration is allegedly planning tolift all terrorism sanctions on Iran, meaning its state sponsorship of terrorism will be unfettered and internationally approved.

Khamenei, Nasrallah, and company are likely jumping for joy. And they should be: Bidens negotiators couldnt have crafted a weaker deal at a worse time if theyd tried.

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Iran and Its Proxies Are about to Cash In on Ukraine - National Review

In a parallel universe seemingly far from Russias invasion of Ukraine, diplomats from Europe, the United States, Russia, China and Iran are in Vienna feverishly trying to revive the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The plan imposed tough constraints on Irans nuclear program in exchange for the Wests easing some sanctions but the deal fizzled after the Trump administrations withdrawal in 2018.

Now negotiators in Vienna, motivated to sign a new pact before cooperation with Russia becomes impossible, are grappling with contentious issues like sanctions relief and unresolved investigations into Irans past nuclear activity at undeclared sites.

Yet even if negotiations succeed, the post-deal environment could be much more unstable than it was seven years ago. There are some important gains to be had, such as renewed limits and inspections on Irans nuclear program; there are nearly no restraints at all right now. A forum where Russia and the West continue cooperating may also be a bonus. And expanding nuclear nonproliferation agreements seems more critical than ever at a time when Putin has put Russias nuclear forces on alert.

But if expectations were low about the original deals ability to transform and stabilize the region, expectations could be even lower this time. Trumps withdrawal from the 2015 deal and the subsequent Iranian nuclear violations and military escalation have altered the region for the worse. Several challenges thus remain even if the Vienna negotiations succeed.

First, President Bidens ambitions to achieve a longer and stronger deal to build on the 2015 terms seem unrealistic. At this stage, just salvaging the original constraints would be an achievement.

A revived deal might not be what Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett disparages as a shorter and weaker deal, which he claims would expire within 2 years, or in 2025. In reality, many of the constraints in areas including uranium enrichment levels and stockpiling, as well as inspection mechanisms, were set to last up to 15 years; some aspects of the deal were indefinite. A revived deal could meaningfully delay Irans nuclear progress by more than 2 years.

But from the start, neither the Biden administration nor the new hard-line Iranian leadership under President Ebrahim Raisi has been in a hurry to negotiate. Both sides face considerable domestic opposition to reviving an agreement.

A revived deal might exclude some important issues such as missiles, which have become a dire military threat on their own even without being linked to nuclear capacities. Had a nuclear agreement been in effect since 2015, perhaps the signatories could now be building on it to address such concerns, rather than starting over.

A second challenge is that Israeli-Iranian escalation may become more difficult to contain this time around. Israels attacks on Iran and Iranian-aligned groups in Syria have continued and even expanded since 2015. Israel had paused sabotage and assassination attacks once nuclear negotiations started after 2012 on an interim deal. Those attacks remained on pause following the final 2015 accord, but after Trumps withdrawal, Israels attacks on Iranian nuclear sites resumed, even on the eve of negotiations to revive the deal in April 2021. If Israel does not believe a renewed agreement sufficiently constrains Irans program, or considers the timeline too short, attacks could continue even if Iran complies.

A third challenge will loom if these talks succeed: There may be no more do-overs. If the next American administration again withdraws from the agreement, or if Iran violates its terms because the provided economic relief is not sufficient, the agreement will almost certainly not be salvaged again. Mistrust could be too high.

Iran may reconsider its stated position to remain a non-nuclear state if it feels it has little to lose by going nuclear and more to gain with a nuclear deterrent. The West may be too distracted with global crises and great power competition to expend the political capital to find a way back to the negotiating table. The international community may just accept a status quo of muddling through with Iran as a nuclear threshold state.

None of these futures is particularly appealing. But an even worse future would be to face global volatility like were seeing today, but with another nuclear-armed state in the Middle East. The reemergence of the Iran nuclear deal should prompt a sigh of relief. But a regional order that is genuinely stable and peaceful remains a distant goal.

Dalia Dassa Kaye is an adjunct political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan Rand Corp. and a senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations.

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Op-Ed: Reviving the Iran nuclear deal would just be a start - Los Angeles Times

Shifting regional geopolitical dynamics are creating new alliances and competition.

With the election of President Joe Biden's administration in the US and the continued Americanpivot to Asia, regional dynamics in the Middle East have entered a new phase. All states are adjusting their policies to this new reality, but Iran, in particular, hopes to use this next period to expand its regional zone of influence. While regional states are entering new alliances to limit Iran, Trkiye in particular may enter a new phase of competition with the Islamic Republic.

The Obama administrations Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) paved the way for further Iranian aggression in the Middle East. It wasSaudi Arabia that tried to confront Iran, engaging in several proxy wars with the Islamic Republic eventually losing ground and surrendering its influence in the region. Stuck in Yemen for years, Saudi Arabia no longer has meaningful tools to limit Iran in Syria and Iraq.

However, the election of Donald Trump, who exited the nuclear deal and pursued a maximum pressure campaign on Iran, gave Arab countries in the Middle East a period of reprieve from worrying about Tehrans reach. Some Arab states concentrated on limiting Trkiye instead, as they perceived Turkish influence on the Arab world as a direct threat to regime survival.

Iran, on the other hand, played thelong game. As the US increasingly turns its focus to China and Russia, Iran is anticipating an opportunity to consolidate its gains and increase its regional leverage.

Warning shots

In January, Iranian-backed Houthi and other militias targeted the UAE with drones and missiles, signalling Iranian capabilities to target the oil-rich Arab states. It was a warning shot clearly received in the Gulf nation. If Iran successfully negotiates a new nuclear deal and is relieved of economic sanctions, Tehran will be able to continue its policies of regional aggression via local proxies.

Cognizant of this new reality, the UAE is trying hard not only tonormalise relations with Trkiye but also to evolve it into a strategic partnership for its national security and economic interests. Years of rivalry with Ankara have taught Abu Dhabi of the formers capabilities, and it appears that it now wants Trkiye by its side.

Israel, too, appears toaccept that itneeds Trkiye. The recent normalisation of relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv will further expand the emerging alliance in the Middle East to contain Iran. The expectation of a more aggressive Iran one could say may have been a catalyst for the rapprochement of Israel and the UAE with Trkiye.

The importance of local partners

While all of the states have their military, economic and other capabilities they can wield against Tehran, it is Trkiye that has local partners in the key sites of Iranian expansion.

Without local partner forces, no state can confront Iran in the Middle East, as the Iranian playbook is based on proxy forces and proxy wars. Without strong local partners to confront Iran, their proxies will win.

In Syria, the Syrian Interim Government and its military, the Syrian National Army, are crucial to confront any possible Iranian aggression. Ankaras strong relations with the Syrian Interim Government may prove essential in limiting Iran. The Syrian National Army has proven its combat efficiency and is a powerfulanti-Iranian force in the Middle East. Most notably, Turkish drones and Trkiye-supported soldiers of the Syrian National Army haveeliminated dozens of Iranian-backed Shia militias in Idlib.

In Iraq, Turkish counterterrorism operations against the PKK terror group have reacheda new stage in which the Iranian-Turkish rivalry over Iraqi politics will decide the fate of the PKK. Trkiye wants to aid the Iraqi Central Government and the Kurdish Regional Government to re-establish sovereignty over territories currently held by the terror group. Iran wants toshield the PKK to keep Trkiye busy in the north of Iraq and therefore guarantee long-lived Iranian leverage over domestic Iraqi affairs.

In this manner, the results of the recent elections and the formation of a new government are crucial. Iranian allies lost, while the Sadr Movement won, and Turkish allies like the KDP and the Sunni parties won many seats in parliament. It was Trkiye thatbrought the Sunni Iraqi parties together.

Therefore, recent Turkish counterintelligence operations againstIranian cells in Trkiye could be just the beginning of a new era of Turkish-Iranian competition and regional alliances.

It appears that the UAE, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Interim Government, the Kurdish Regional Government, the Iraqi Central Government, the anti-Iranian forces in Lebanon, and other Arab states will bet on Trkiye to limit further Iranian aggression.

An increase in Turkish arms sales to the Gulf States, as well as growing economic and military cooperation, can be expected. Regional states that fear Iranian drone attacks and Iranian proxies will want to learn from the Turkish experience.

For Trkiye, its regional interests and the success of its counterterrorism operations will depend on limiting Iran. If Iran manages to achieve another wave of successes like it did against Saudi Arabia during the Obama administration, the results may be irreversible.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT World.

We welcome all pitches and submissions to TRT World Opinion please send them via email, to opinion.editorial@trtworld.com

Source: TRT World

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A new era of Turkish-Iranian competition may be on the horizon - TRT World

JNS.org Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Tuesday that the critical juncture regarding Irans nuclear program was at hand, and reiterated that the Jewish state would not be bound by any agreement reached in Vienna.

Speaking at a ceremony at the Mossad intelligence agencys Advanced Technologies and Innovation Event, attended by senior security officials, Bennett said, While one of our eyeslike the whole worldis on Kyiv, the other eye watches, tensely, at what is happening west of there, in Vienna.

For Israel, said the prime minister, There is no such thing as sunset, referring to the so-called sunset clauses of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear accord, lifting all restrictions on Irans nuclear program after a set number of years have elapsed. The sun will not set on Israels security and the well-being of its citizens, said Bennett.

Echoing past statements, Bennett reiterated that any agreement reached in Vienna between Iran and the world powers would not be binding on the Jewish state. And the datetwo and a half years from nowwhich allows Iran to assemble countless centrifuges, certainly does not bind us, he added.

Israels security establishment, he continued, faces many tests over the coming yearsas well as in the near future.

I wish we could leave them in the theoretical or experimental dimension only. But as it looks right now, your hands will be full. The bigmonumentaltask that lies on your shoulders is to prevent Iran from going nuclear. This is a task you have been dealing with for many years, but we seem to be approaching the moment of truth As far as I am concerned, youtogether with the IDF, of courseare the address. The mission is on you.

Returning to the subject of Russias invasion of Ukraine, Bennett said, As the world becomes, almost overnight, gloomy and dangerous, our appreciation of the importance of power and strength increases in us all.

A few hours flight from here, in Kyiv, the world order is undergoing a huge upheaval. From the beginning, the State of Israel has taken a measured and responsible approach, which allows us not only to protect our interests, but also to be useful. To be a reliable player, one of the few that can communicate directly with both parties, and assist as required. Indeed, helpquietly, said the prime minister.

On Tuesday morning, he noted, Israel had sent three planes full of humanitarian aid, mostly medicines, to Ukraine. More aid would be sent as needed, he said, adding, We are also preparing to provide humanitarian assistance on the ground and, of course, to facilitate the immigration of Jews, from all relevant places.

Bennett ended his address on a more optimistic note, saying, precisely when it seems that the world is going in worrying directions, the State of Israel is on a straight path and ascending. In every dimension, the last year is a year of leaps and bounds: in economic growth, security, political stability and our determination to unite Israeli society, calm the discourse and find unification and not division. Therein lies our true resilience, there lies our strength. And we will need it.

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Bennett: We Have Reached 'Moment of Truth' on Iran Nuclear Program - Algemeiner

Iran hands in its final package of proposals and says key decisions require political action from Western countries.

Tehran, Iran Iran has said any potential breakthrough in Vienna talks aimed at restoring its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers rests on political decisions by Western nations, after handing in its own final proposals.

Its better for Iran if theres an agreement in Vienna and sanctions are lifted today rather than tomorrow, said Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in a news conference with his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney in Tehran on Monday.

So we are in a hurry for a good agreement, but it must be within the framework of logical talks and to achieve the rights of the Iranian nation, he added.

The Iranian foreign minister also called on the United States and the European signatories of the nuclear deal to stop playing with text and time of an agreement and display their political will.

Earlier on Monday, Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Irans Supreme National Security Council, said in a tweet that the talks in the Austrian capital have reached a stage where an outcome could be announced, depending on the US position.

Shamkhani also said he held a phone call with Irans chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, on Sunday which reinforced his view that the Iranian team faces a tough challenge in sticking to its agenda, and that Western parties continue to make a show of political will to evade their commitments.

This comes shortly after Wang Qun, Chinas top negotiator, confirmed that Iran has offered its final package of proposals in response to a previous Western package, in what he called the final stage of the talks that began in April 2021.

The eighth round of the talks, which appears likely to be the last, is expected to yield results in the next few weeks as Western parties maintain very limited time is left to save the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Washington unilaterally abandoned the accord in 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions on Iran that remain in place. In response, Iran advanced its nuclear programme and is now using improved centrifuges to enrich uranium up to 60 percent. It has consistently maintained that its nuclear programme is peaceful.

All sides have concurred the talks have progressed in recent weeks. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russias chief negotiator, said in a tweet on Sunday that all assessments were positive following a meeting with US, European, and Chinese representatives without Iran.

Iran still refuses to negotiate directly with the US as long as Washington remains outside the JCPOA.

After a meeting with Amirabdollahian, the Irish foreign minister also met President Ebrahim Raisi.

Coveney was quoted by the Iranian presidents website as saying he understands Irans distrust of the US.

Ireland believes that necessary guarantees need to be given to Iran as part of the current talks so the deal can be restored, he said, in reference to Irans demands for guarantees the US will not renege on the accord again, and a period to verify the lifting of sanctions.

What we emphasise on in these talks is that sanctions need to be lifted in reality and the rights of the Iranian nation must be respected, Raisi told him.

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Iran says outcome of Vienna talks hinges on Western decisions - Al Jazeera English