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DUBAI, May 5 (Reuters) - Emboldened by an oil price surge since Russia invaded Ukraine, Iran's clerical rulers are in no rush to revive a 2015 nuclear pact with world powers to ease sanctions on its energy-reliant economy, three officials familiar with Tehran's thinking said.

Last year, the Islamic Republic engaged in indirect talks with the United States as a route to cancelling U.S. sanctions that have gutted revenues and dramatically worsened economic hardships for ordinary people, stirring discontent.

But the talks have been on hold since March, chiefly over Iran's insistence on Washington removing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Tehran's elite security force, from the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list.

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While the ultimate aim is still to resurrect the deal and so have sanctions lifted, the Iranian officials said soaring oil prices had opened a window of opportunity for Iran by increasing revenues, giving the economy months of breathing space.

"Our nuclear programme is advancing as planned and time is on our side," said a senior Iranian official, who declined to be named because he was not authorised to discuss sensitive policy issues with the media.

"If the talks fail it will not be the end of the world," said the official, adding that the fact Iran's economy was not now so reliant on a revival of the deal would provide strong leverage for its negotiators if or when the talks resumed.

Iran's foreign ministry, which handles the nuclear talks, and the U.S. state department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Iran's finances came under intense pressure in 2018 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump ditched the nuclear pact between Iran and world powers - approved by his predecessor Barack Obama - and reimposed sanctions that sharply cut the oil revenues that fund a sprawling Iranian state apparatus.

Oil exports from Iran, which sits on the world's fourth-largest reserves of crude, plummeted from a peak of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2018 to as low as 200,000 bpd.

Tehran retaliated a year later by gradually violating the deal's nuclear curbs, from rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output - reducing the time it would need to develop a nuclear bomb, if it so chose.

Tehran says it seeks only peaceful nuclear energy.

Although Iran does not divulge exact figures on oil sales, an Iranian oil official said they were currently around 1.5 million bpd with most going to China at a big discount that Iranian authorities have declined to reveal.

Global oil prices remain high, however, with Brent crude reaching $139 a barrel in March, its highest since 2008 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated supply concerns.

The Iranian parliament increased the ceiling of oil and condensates exports from 1.2 million bpd at a price of $60 last year to 1.4 million bpd based on $70 a barrel in the state budget, Iranian state media reported in March.

Tehran's refusal to back down from the FTO assignation demand has raised doubt about whether the nuclear impasse can be resolved. President Joe Biden's administration has made it clear that it has no such plans, while also not ruling it out.

On Wednesday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters that it was unclear whether or not it would be possible to revive the deal and said Washington was now bracing for either outcome. read more

Iranian authorities have publicly shrugged off U.S. pressure, saying Tehran has become adept at working around sanctions as they have been a fact of life for decades.

Jihad Azour, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Middle East and Central Asia Department director, said the Iranian economy had adjusted to sanctions over the last few years.

"And the increase in oil prices and an increase in (Iran's) oil production are constituting an additional, I would say, increase in revenues," Azour told Reuters.

However, Henry Rome, Iran analyst at consultancy group Eurasia, said the Islamic Republic is underestimating the value of easing sanctions and overestimating its ability to muddle through longer term.

"Iranian leaders probably consider stronger domestic economic performance, limited U.S. enforcement of oil sanctions and broader Western distraction given the Ukraine war as reasons not to be desperate to secure a deal," Rome said.

"Although, they likely remain open to a deal at the right price."

Despite the recent rise in revenues, sanctions continue to have a major impact on daily life in Iran, meaning that everyone from the business elite to lower-income families face soaring inflation, a sinking currency and rising joblessness.

Clerical rulers may therefore be wary of simmering disenchantment at home, according to a former Iranian government official.

Ultimately, they prefer an end to sanctions, fearing a return of unrest among lower-income Iranians whose periodic protests in recent years have reminded leaders how vulnerable they can be to grassroots anger over economic hardship.

Not enough people are yet feeling the benefits of rising oil revenues, the former government official added.

Iranian analyst Saeed Leylaz said Iran's home-grown economic problems, including mismanagement and corruption that deplete revenue needed for investment, job creation and development, pose a bigger challenge to the establishment than sanctions.

The official inflation rate is around 40% while some people estimate it at over 50%. Almost half of Iran's 82 million population are now below the poverty line. Unofficial estimates suggest unemployment is well above the official rate of 11%.

"All the economic indicators point to worsening economic realities in Iran. To say Iran sits on a tinderbox is no exaggeration," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at Middle East Institute.

Prices of basic goods like bread, meat and rice are increasing daily. Iranian media frequently report layoffs and strikes by workers who have not been paid for months, including in government-owned factories.

Owning a home in Tehran is impossible for many. Prices have risen in recent months by around 50% in some areas. The currency has dropped over 70% against the U.S. dollar since 2018.

"Where is this oil revenue going? Why we do not feel any improvement?" said teacher Mohsen Sedighi, a father-of-two in Tehran.

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Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Additional reporting by Arshad Mohammed in Washington; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Mark Heinrich

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Analysis: EXCLUSIVE Rising oil prices buy Iran time in nuclear talks, officials say - Reuters

In Lafayette Park, Washington DC, Wednesday, protestors called for President Joe Biden to meet relatives of two American-Iranians jailed in Iran.

The families of Emad Sharghi and Iranian-British-American Morad Tahbaz joined the demonstration at the park, which is across the street from the White House and commonly used for rallies.

Tara Tahbaz, daughter of Morad Tahbaz, told CNN at the rally that the jailed men were not just another name on a list, they're somebody's father, son, husband." She expressed hope that the United States government was using every tool that they have on the table to prioritize them.

State Department Spokesman Ned Price reiterated Wednesday that the jailed Americans a third is Siamak Namazi, whose father Bagher is also not permitted to leave Iran were a separate matter to stalled talks between Iran and world powers aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Price told reporters that Washington had told Iran "in no uncertain terms" that the safe release of these Americans was a priority. The US Secretary of StateAntony Blinken in April urged Tehran to free Sharghi.

"Iran does have a long history of unjust imprisonment of foreign nationals for use as political leverage, Price said Wednesday. It continues to engage in a range of human rights abuses, which include large-scale arbitrary or unlawful detention of individuals, some of whom have faced torture or worse, in some cases execution

Iran, which does not allow consular access for dual nationals, holds citizens of several countries including Germany, Austria, and Sweden, as de facto hostages. There have reportedly been Tehran-Washington contacts aimed at a prisoner exchange that would free Iranians jailed in the US, mainly over breaching American sanctions.

Djalali Death Sentence Confirmed

Quoting an unnamed "informed source" Wednesday, Iran's semi-official ISNA news agency, said the Supreme Court had confirmed a death sentence on Swedish-Iranian scientist Ahmadreza Djalali (Jalali) to be carried out within two weeks. Within hours, Nour News, a website affiliated to the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani, also cited unnamed sources in reporting the decision.

ISNA suggested political pundits believed Sweden had put on trial a former Iranian judiciary official, Hamid Nouri, for crimes against humanity for his alleged role in prison executions in 1988 as a means of pressure on Iran to release Djalali. Iran had confirmed the sentence on Djalali to deter Stockholm from any further such actions, the pundits suggested.

Djalai was convicted in 2016 and given the death penalty on unproven and undocumented espionage for Israel. His wife, Vida Mehrannia,told Iran International November 2020that her husband was a victim of Iran's relations with Europe, fueling speculation that Iran sought by threatening the execution either to secure a prisoner exchange or to influence the trial in Belgium ofIranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi, who was in 2020 sentenced to 20 years for attempted murder.

Expressing concern over Djalai in a tweet Wednesday, Sweden's foreign minister, Ann Linde wrote that Swedish authorities were in contact with Tehran.

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Ordeal Of Hostages Held In Iran Reaches The White House -

The State Department pays $2 million per month to protect former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his special Iran envoy Brian Hook from Iranian assassins.

To put that in perspective, in the first five months of this year, the State Department spent more money protecting the two men than the entire annual budget for American Citizen Services. The Biden administration has not allowed intelligence about Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps assassination plots against the two men from former national security adviser John Bolton and others to stand in the way of nuclear negotiations and financial relief. Even, that is, as Irans supreme leader threatens more assassinations and rebuffs President Joe Bidens offers.

Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinkens seeming lack of concern only encourages Iran and normalizes such behavior. Privately, they may blame their predecessors drone strike on Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani for sparking Irans desire for revenge, but this would be mistaken for two reasons: First, the United States targeted Soleimani because he murdered more than 600 American servicemen and was planning more terrorist attacks. Second, many Iranians resented Soleimanis terrorism. He was a murderer, not a patriot.

To demand Iran cease its efforts to assassinate U.S. figures was correct but to continue diplomacy as usual and even float lifting sanctions on the group planning such assassinations is pathetic. It only encourages the worlds foremost sponsor of state terror. Diplomacy only works when all parties accept its norms, but the Islamic Republic has shown nothing but disdain for diplomacy since its 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

When rogue regimes eschew the norms of diplomacy, it is essential Washington raise the costs.

After Palestinian terrorists murdered 11 Israeli athletes and coaches and a German policeman at the 1972 Munich Olympics, the Israelis quietly undertook an operation to hunt down and kill many of the terrorists involved. While Israels detractors might criticize vengeance, Israels actions both tarnished the terrorists glorification and also ended their ability to conduct follow-on attacks.

Nor have Israelis been alone in such actions. The CIA hunted senior Al Qaeda leaders in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. Ultimately, President Barack Obama approved the operation that killed Osama bin Laden in his Pakistani compound. Of Obamas national security team, only Biden objected to that operation. He was wrong then and he is wrong now.

Soleimani was not alone in his targeting of Americans; he was simply the most egregious purveyor of that activity. There is nothing in international or U.S. law to prohibit such actions against either senior Revolutionary Guards officers. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, too, could be a legal target given his constitutional role as commander in chief, although from a policy decision, targeting him would be unwise given that he is already an octogenarian at deaths door. Iranian authorities may believe either that Biden does not have it in him to hold terrorists to account or they may calculate that any U.S. action against those with American blood on their hands would enable Irans regime to rally Iranians around the flag.

The Iranians were right about Biden. Elections matter, at least in America. But, so long as Washington does not crow triumphantly as Obama did after bin Ladens death or Trump did after Soleimanis, then Irans ability to distract its public with nationalist opprobrium is limited.

The public may remain under the threat of Iranian terrorism until Biden leaves office, but a new administration could take a new approach, one which would truly convince Iranian leaders and Revolutionary Guard officers that they will pay not only a high price for terrorism but a deeply personal one as well.

Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to theWashington Examiner'sBeltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

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It's time to meet Iran assassination threats in kind - Washington Examiner

How fast could Iran build a nuclear weapon?U.S. officials believe Iran is inching closer to obtaining a nuclear bomb and could be just a few weeks away from reaching full breakout capabilities. In a press briefing on Wednesday, Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed that Irans proximity to acquiring sufficient fissile material for one nuclear bomb had shortened significantly from about a year to weeks, concerning the White House.

The nuclear breakout period refers to the time needed to produce fissile materials for the bomb, but not necessarily the bomb itself. To achieve a fully functioning nuclear arsenal, Iran must first obtain the technology and materials to build the core of the weapon and to attach it to the warhead of a missile. However, considering Irans history of dodging inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and non-compliance to treaty obligations, the regime could be much closer to achieving a robust nuclear arsenal than assumed.

In the latest IAEA quarterly publication issued in March, inspectors findings amplified the warning that Iran is expanding its arsenal materials exponentially. The report found that Iran has nearly 33 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran is just 7 kilograms short of producing enough weapons-grade nuclear fuel for a weapon.

The Biden administrations annual report on arms control and nonproliferation compliance issued in late April also discussed these alarming findings. The State Department recognized Irans continuous dodging of international inspectors and concealment of its nuclear expansions in at least four locations. According to the report, undeclared nuclear activities and experiments with a uranium metal disc are among the issues that raise significant questions of what Iran may be trying to hide, and whether Iran is in compliance with its safeguards obligations today.

Despite the State Departments admission of Irans copious compliance failures, the White House remains fervent that re-entering a joint nuclear agreement with Iran is a top priority. Under the Obama era 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) guidelines, Tehran was granted sanctions relief in exchange for some cutbacks to its nuclear program. Tehran frequently defied its obligations before the U.S. withdrew from the arrangement in 2018 under the Trump administration. In addition to preventing IAEA officials from inspecting designated sites, Iran expanded its ballistic and cruise missile development programs.

The current nuclear negotiations in Vienna have not slowed the rate of Irans nuclear expansion. Since the talks commenced, Iran has continued to build up its uranium enrichment and fissile materials critical components in a nuclear program. Iran has ramped up its deployment of more powerful centrifuge models, increasing the concentration of raw materials needed to produce a weapon. According to Iran Watch, these new models have increased the size and enrichment level of Irans uranium stockpiled after being installed in production lines.

Irans enlarged and potentially underreported uranium enrichment levels and lack of inspector access to its weapons development sites indicate the rogue states official breakout time is looming. While it seems inevitable they could have the fissile material in a few weeks; its unclear how long it would take them to make a usable warhead. A nuclear threshold state does not necessarily have the capabilities or aim to acquire a nuclear weapon, but Tehrans clandestine efforts reveal a lack of peaceful intent. Therefore, their road to a bomb is likely imminent.

Maya Carlin is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in a wide range of publications including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel.

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Iran: The Next Nuclear Weapons State? - 19FortyFive

Iran says it has stopped large shipments of flour, sugar and vegetable oil from being smuggled out of the country amid a bread and pasta crisis.

Border Guard Commander Ahmad-Ali Goudarzi said on Thursday that about five tons of flour, four tons of sugar, and 63 tons of vegetable oil have been taken from smugglers at sea and land borders during the past 45 days.

Tasnim news agency also reported on Thursday that 312 tons of flour and 290 tons of vegetable oil were confiscated from businesses hoarding the essential food staple during the past 48 hours.

These statements follow a 2-5-fold government price increases for essential food items such as flour. It is not clear how large quantities of flour or cooking could be diverted from the government-controlled distribution system.

According to the ISNA news agency, pasta, which replaced rice for the lower income classes of society as main source of calories, has also become an unaffordable and expensive product.

The government has been insisting that its oil export revenues have increased and it has secured enough supplies of essential commodities, but prices have soared in recent weeks.

The head of the Flour Producers Association says this year Iran must import 20 million tons of grain including 6 to 7 million tons of wheat --noting that the country has never been so dependent on imports.

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Iran Says It Confiscated Large Quantities Of Smuggled And Hoarded Flour -