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A hawkish gaggle of former U.S. national security officials, lawmakers, and diplomats has launched a public campaign to pressure the Biden administration into militarily threatening Iran. Thestatement, headlined by former CIA chiefs Leon Panetta and retired Gen. David Petraeus as well as former Obama-era senior Pentagon officialMichle Flournoy asserts that it is vital to restore Irans fear that its current nuclear path will trigger the use of force against it by the United States.

The statement which was also signed by former Democratic Rep. Jane Harman and Democratic diplomatic heavyweight Dennis Ross, and published by the Washington Institute,a militarist think tank argues that the Biden administration must take steps that lead Iran to believe that persisting in its current behavior and rejecting a reasonable diplomatic resolution will put to risk its entire nuclear infrastructure, one built painstakingly over the last three decades. They suggest that President Joe Biden consider orchestrating high-profile military exercises by the U.S. Central Command, potentially in concert with allies and partners, that simulate what would be involved in such a significant operation, including rehearsing air-to-ground attacks on hardened targets and the suppression of Iranian missile batteries.

Iran analyst Hooman Majd,author of The Ayatollah Begs to Differ: The Paradox of Modern Iran, said the letter from the former U.S. officials is just plain silly. He told The Intercept, Theres no restoring Irans fear the last time it feared a U.S. military strike or war was in the immediate aftermath of the Iraq invasion when it looked like the easy victory there and in Afghanistan would indeed perhaps lead to real men going to Tehran. Majd points out that despite repeated U.S. and Israeli threats of military action, Iran has steadily beefed up its military capabilities. So Id say that Iran doesnt fear U.S. military action against it now, he added. All of the Israeli bluster about preparing for war with Iran hasnt changed their calculus and they know Israel is probably more likely to attack their facilities than the U.S. is so why would any U.S. bluster or preparations for war do so?

Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, blasted the statement, telling The Intercept: The exaggerated faith in the miracles that U.S. militarythreats can deliver are not limited to any one party in the United States, but is intrinsic to the establishment religion that American security is achieved through global military hegemony.

The former U.S. officials argued that their strategy is aimed at forcing Iran to the negotiating table and to compel it to reverse any efforts to develop nuclear weapons made in the aftermath of Donald Trumps abandonment of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. While the United States has recognized Irans right to civilian nuclear power, Irans behavior continues to indicate that it not only wants to preserve a nuclear weapons option but is actively moving toward developing that capability, they wrote. While advocating for potential military action and openly calling on Biden to make explicit military threats the authors of the letter claim their intent is to support diplomatic efforts. [W]e are not urging the Biden Administration to threaten regime change or to advocate for a regime change strategy under cover of non-proliferation, they wrote. This is not about hostility toward Iran or its people.

Parsi, an Iranian American analyst and author of Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran, and the Triumph of Diplomacy, added, Rather than being the solution to the crisis, the military threat the U.S. poses to Iran is a key reason why the Iranian nuclear program has expanded. The more a country is faced with military threats, the more it will demand a nuclear deterrence.

During the 2020 presidential campaign, Biden repeatedly criticized Trumps abandonment of the nuclear deal and his assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani in Baghdad on January 3. But nearly a year into his presidency, Biden has taken no action to return to the deal and has staked out an increasingly hostile stance toward Tehran. In late August, Biden appeared to be placing military options on the table. During a press gaggle with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett at the White House, Biden said, If diplomacy fails with Iran, were ready to turn to other options. The Biden administration has maintained and, in some cases, expanded U.S. economic sanctions against Iran, which has spurred allegations from Tehran that the U.S. is already waging a nonmilitary war against Iranian civilians. Iran is demanding a cessation of sanctions as a precondition to return to negotiations.

Iran has every reason to want to restore the JCPOA at least in terms of getting the most onerous sanctions against it lifted. But it hardly is going to engage because it thinks the U.S. will go to war with it if it doesnt, said Majd.

Donald Trumps military threats and broad economic sanctions are precisely why we are in this mess right now. To believe that more Trumpian conduct by the United States will break the nuclear deadlock bewilders the mind, says Parsi. Trumps exit from the deal and the lack of confidence that the United States will stay in the deal beyond 2024 has profoundly undermined the value of American promises of sanctions relief. The Iranians are hesitating largely because they do not believe that the economic benefits the U.S. promiseswill be forthcoming. No amount of military threats will changethat fundamentalweakness in the U.S. negotiating position.

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Two Former CIA Directors Call on Biden to Threaten Iran Militarily - The Intercept

DUBAI, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Iran is evacuating its envoy to Yemen's rebel Houthi movement after he contracted COVID-19, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Saturday, and a Houthi spokesman said Saudi Arabia and Iraq helped in the transfer of envoy Hasan Irlu.

Saudi Arabia and Iran, the region's Sunni Muslim and Shi'ite powerhouses, launched direct talks this year at a time when global powers are trying to salvage a nuclear pact with Tehran and as U.N.-led efforts to end the Yemen war stall. read more

"In order to transfer him (Irlu) to our country for treatment, the Foreign Ministry conducted consultations with some regional countries to prepare for his transfer, which is currently under way," ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told state media.

Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said on Twitter: "Under an Iranian-Saudi agreement reached through contacts with Iraq, the Iranian ambassador in Sanaa was transferred on an Iraqi plane due to his health condition."

A Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen in 2015 against the Houthis after the movement ousted the internationally recognised government from Sanaa, the capital. The coalition has imposed a sea and air blockade on areas the group controls.

Register

Reporting by Dubai newsroom; additional reporting by Yasmin Hussein in Cairo; Editing by Leslie Adler

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Iran repatriating envoy to Yemen who has COVID-19 - Reuters

Why wont Iran cut a deal? Its regime has taken an uncompromising line in renewed talks over its nuclear program. Although that has left the United States and its allies bewildered and frustrated, the regime has solid reasons for doing so.

After all, it is currently managing to weather the tough U.S. and global economic sanctions that were supposed to force the Islamic Republic to compromise. Washington and its allies, meanwhile, are split over how best to approach the talks with Tehran, while after years of empty bluster U.S. threats of military force to cripple Irans nuclear program simply lack credibility. At the same time, the regime is watching Americas current reaction to other global threats, and clearly finding all of it quite reassuring.

None of that bodes well for Washingtons hopes of reviving the 2015 global nuclear agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (or JCPOA), and then negotiating a broader deal that would cover such matters as Tehrans ballistic missile program and its terror sponsorship.

With few signs of progress at the talks in Vienna, the Biden administration is moving totightenthe U.S. sanctions that are in place. But, while the sanctions of recent years have clearly battered Irans economy leaving its gross domestic product shrinking, its currency nosediving, and unemployment skyrocketing the regime believesit can weather the sanctions and continue to make progress on its nuclear and its related ballistic missile programs. Thedecisionsof China and Venezuela to buy Iranian oil and gas, and a $400 billiondealunder which China will invest in Irans economy and buy Iranian oil at discounted rates far into the future, give Tehran important ways to sidestep sanctions.

Economic hardship has sent throngs of Iranians to the streets to protest many times over the last decade, but the regime has cracked down harshly in response, killing some protestors, injuring others, and imprisoning even more. That partly explains why, while public discontent with the government is broad and deep, it has not yet coalesced into an effective force to topple the regime.

Meanwhile, U.S. differences with its regional allies over how to approach the nuclear talks have left Washington without the strength of a unified position.

Israel believesthe JCPOA is far too weak and loophole-ridden to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, so it opposes U.S. efforts to revive it, prompting growing tensions between Washington and Jerusalem. Israelfearsthat the United States will agree to lift some sanctions in the midst of nuclear negotiations, giving Tehran more funds for terrorist and missile attacks on the Jewish state.

At the same time, Sunni Arab nations (such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) are worried about Americas continuing commitment to protect them against Iranian encroachment, so they arereaching outto Tehran separately to reduce their own tensions with the Islamic Republic.

Moreover, as seen from Tehran, U.S. threats of military action to prevent Iran from going nuclear almost certainly lack credibility.

Joe Biden is the fourth straight U.S. president to say that he will not let Iran get nuclear weapons, and the fourth to refer obliquely to military action if negotiations prove futile. Over that period, however, no president has approved military action, even as Iran continued to make progress on its nuclear program (enough progress, in fact, that its nowwithin a few weeksof developing a nuclear bomb if it chooses to do so).

To be sure, U.S. and Israeli military officials in recent daysreportedlyhave discussed military exercises to prepare to attack Irans nuclear sites if diplomacy fails; nevertheless, Tehran couldnt help but notice, via aNew York Timesreport, that U.S. officials rejected an Israeli request to hasten the delivery of refueling tankers (which could be part of an Israeli strike on Irans nuclear facilities) because they were back-ordered. Besides, U.S. vows to prevent North Korea from going nuclear, and itsfailure to do so, have left Tehran even more skeptical about a U.S. threat.

Finally, Tehran is watching U.S. and Western responses to Russias build-up along Ukraines border and finding more reasons for reassurance.

Cognizant of a war-weary American populace, President BidenJoe BidenSenate confirms Rahm Emanuel to be ambassador to Japan NY governor plans to add booster shot to definition of 'fully vaccinated' Photos of the Week: Tornado aftermath, Medal of Honor and soaring superheroes MOREstated firmlythat he will not send troops to Ukraine in response to a Russian invasion. Instead, hehas sentsmall arms and ammunition to Ukraine, and he warned Russian President Vladimir PutinVladimir Vladimirovich PutinOvernight Defense & National Security US warns Putin still mulling Ukraine invasion White House says Putin hasn't made up mind on invading Ukraine Iran has good reasons to hang tough in nuke talks MORE by phone that, in the aftermath of an invasion, Washington would do what it has done to a nuclear-seeking Iran: impose sanctions.

Tehran does not make decisions about its nuclear program in a vacuum. Its tough stance at the talks in Vienna reflects confidence that it can weather sanctions as well as its skepticism that anything more serious might result. At the moment, the Biden administration doesnt seem to be doing anything to alter this calculus.

Lawrence J. Haas, senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, is the author ofThe Kennedys in the World: How Jack, Bobby, and Ted Remade Americas Empire, from Potomac Books.

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Iran has good reasons to hang tough in nuke talks | TheHill - The Hill

Two Iranian lawyers and a civil rights activist were among a group organizing a legal challenge to Irans top leader and the government over their disastrous handling of the pandemic.

But before they could even file their complaint, they were seized and incarcerated.

Now known on Iranian social media as the health defenders, their case has attracted widespread attention, even though their trial in Tehran is not open to the public.

We were still discussing the complaint and what to do when 15 intelligence agents from the judiciary violently broke into the office and arrested us, the civil rights activist, Mehdi Mahmoudian, said in a phone interview from Tehrans high-security Evin prison, where he is being held along with his co-defendants, lawyers Mostafa Nili and Arash Kaykhosravi.

We were held in solitary confinement with no access to lawyers, telephones or family visits for nearly a month in an illegal detention wing of Evin that belongs to the judiciary, he added. Mr. Mahmoudian said he and others had received phone calls from intelligence agents beforehand asking them to cancel the meeting, a tipoff that they were under surveillance.

Mr. Mahmoudian was among a group of nine Iranian lawyers and civil rights activists who had gathered in a Tehran office one afternoon in August to discuss a draft of a lawsuit they planned to file against the countrys top officials. He said they had been planning to sue Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the government on charges of mismanaging the pandemic and hampering the vaccine rollout with a politically motivated ban by Mr. Khamenei on importing vaccines made in the United States and Britain.

Hadi Ghaemi, the director of the independent Center for Human Rights in Iran, an advocacy group based in New York, said the planned lawsuit was one example of a movement taking shape across Iran to demand accountability from public officials and justice for a range of offenses, from the killing of protesters, the torture of political prisoners and the deaths attributable to delays in delivering Covid vaccines.

These lawyers were really the voice of a society that was outraged at the Covid situation and they wanted to put this on the map by filing this lawsuit, he said.

From the onset of the pandemic, Iran has treated independent releases of information about it as a crime and a matter of national security. In the early months, for example, authorities banned health care workers and doctors from discussing the real number of hospitalizations and deaths.

Health Ministry officials involved with pandemic policies have said publicly that they were interrogated regularly by intelligence agents.

Iran had already been ravaged by the coronavirus by the time of the meeting in August, and the country was in the midst of yet another intense wave of outbreaks and deaths. The group of lawyers and activists debated whether to name the supreme leader in their lawsuit, according to Mr. Mahmoudian.

Some of those present favored the idea because Ayatollah Khamenei had issued the vaccine ban, delaying Irans mass inoculation by months. But others opposed it, arguing it would make the case too sensitive.

Mr. Mahmoudian and the two lawyers have been detained for the past four months in Tehrans notorious Evin prison, the central site in the country for holding and torturing political prisoners. Branches of the intelligence service, from the judiciary to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps., control their own wings at Evin, where the prisoners are kept in solitary confinement. He managed to evade prison restrictions and speak to a reporter by phone a week ago.

The three are charged with spreading propaganda against the state and disruption of public order in a trial that began in late October in Tehrans Revolutionary Court a special court for political cases and political prisoners. They are also charged with forming and belonging to an enemy organization a reference to a human rights group they established called Citizens Rights Protection Association. If convicted, they could each face up to 10 years in prison.

A statement last week by a group of international rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch and PEN America, called for their immediate release and asked the United Nations to raise their case with Irans government.

They are completely innocent, said Saeed Dehghan, an Iranian human rights lawyer, who knows the detainees and has worked with them on other cases.

Irans U.N. mission did not respond to questions about the three prisoners.

During the raid, the intelligence agents demanded that all nine people present seven lawyers and two activists sign a statement pledging to drop the lawsuit. Some agreed and were allowed to leave.

Five were arrested but two were released on bail.

Mr. Mahmoudian is currently serving a four-year prison sentence in connection with a previous charge that was suspended until his arrest in August: He had asked the public to light a candle in memory of the Ukrainian Airlines jet downed by the Revolutionary Guards in January 2020. Iran said the missile fire that had destroyed the plane, killing 176 people, was a mistake.

In the months since the raid, Iran has progressed in its vaccination campaign. As of this week, Iran reports that 50 million of its 85 million people have received two doses of vaccine, according to state media.

After the current government took office in August and conservatives consolidated power, vaccine imports, availability and mass inoculation improved considerably.

But with the Omicron variant spreading rapidly across the world, Iranian health officials are encouraging the public to get booster shots to increase their defenses against the new strain. And in this sense, Iran may once again find itself behind the curve: Only about 2 million people have received a booster shot so far, according to the health ministry.

Many in Iran have questioned whether top officials deliberately held off on importing vaccines during the tenure of former President Hassan Rouhani because of political infighting between his more centrist government and the conservative camp within the ruling system, which is aligned with Mr. Khamenei, the highest authority in the land.

Vaccines began flowing once conservative President Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of the supreme leader, took power in August, making him appear as a more efficient administrator.

For its part, the government has blamed the delays in vaccine imports and other pandemic-related problems on sanctions and it has lobbied to get the billions of dollars in oil revenues that have been frozen under the U.S. sanctions released to pay for vaccines through the Covax initiative.

But crackdowns on civil liberties under Mr. Raisi, who has a dire record of human rights violations, have intensified, rights groups and lawyers say. The government is facing almost weekly protests around the country over a range of grievances, from farmers angry over water resource mismanagement to a teachers union striking over wages. It has responded with an iron fist.

The trial of the health defenders trio has hit a nerve with many activists, ordinary Iranians and even international organizations who are asking: If lawyers cant seek justice in the Islamic Republic within the framework of the constitution, then who can?

In November, more than 500 human rights defenders and activists signed a petition demanding the release of the three jailed men and said their ongoing detention violated fair trial guarantees under Irans constitution.

In October, the three men arrested in August published an open letter from prison declaring their intention to sue Mr. Khamenei and the former president, Mr. Rouhani as well as the former health minister and members of the countrys coronavirus task force.

We created our organization with the intent that if a persons rights are being violated, we could step in and react, Mr. Mahmoudian said. But right now, they are not allowing any of us to even defend ourselves in court.

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Health Defenders Jailed in Iran Wanted to Sue Supreme Leader Over Covid - The New York Times

Brace yourself for 2022, a year of living dangerously.

Many of the world's most profound gains of the post-World War II era will be tested. The security of Europe and Asia, the resilience of democratic governance, the advance of open markets, the sanctity of individual rights and the certainty of human progress all are in the balance.

Never in the 30 years since the Cold War's end has a U.S. president entered a new year confronting such an explosive brew of geopolitical and domestic political uncertainty. They are intertwined like a Gordian knot that only bold action can untangle.

The convergence of these external and internal perils, amid deep U.S. political divisiveness and international diffidence, raises the difficulty level for any effective response.

Then layer onto all that the most disturbing rise of inflation in three decades and the persistent torment of Covid-19. Add to that the certainty that all these issues will drive an even greater wedge between rich and poor countries and peoples, and increased global volatility seems inevitable.

All that said, these are the three external factors that should concern us most immediately in 2022:

A revanchist Russia is bent on regaining control of Ukraine; China, similarly, is escalating its threats to Taiwan's independence (don't fool yourself that Ukrainian and Taiwanese freedoms can be separated); and Iran is so rapidly moving toward nuclear-weapons breakout capability that Israel may be forced to respond.

These dangers are escalating at a time when Chinese, Russian and Iranian leaders alike having witnessed the Biden administration's withdrawal from Afghanistan and its understandable focus on domestic issues may see 2022 as the best moment yet to advance their geopolitical ambitions.

The optimists among us can take some comfort in the fact that there is a possible path through this briar patch. Advances in technology, health care, and wider human access to knowledge may very well usher in a new epoch of global progress.

There's also more than enough evidence that democracies, particularly the United States, have sufficient resilience to rebound and regroup.

History also has shown that the most authoritarian forms of government prove ultimately to be the most fragile.

China's remarkable rise as the world's first capitalist-communist experiment is running up against a series of setbacks, mostly self-inflicted.

President Xi Jinping is doubling down on domestic repression and reinforcing Communist Party control over China's most successful companies, particularly in the technology space. In so doing, he is choking them off from international financial markets and he may be killing the panda that laid China's economic miracle.

Vladimir Putin's Russia seems to be a country on the march, pumped up by spiking energy prices and geopolitical muscle-flexing from Syria to the Donbas.However, the weight of existing and new economic sanctions, Russia's demographic challenges, and an economy entirely reliant on energy will hamstring Putin's aspirations to undo the humiliations of his lifetime.

In a documentary that aired on Russian television last Sunday, Putin said the fall of the Soviet Union three decades ago remained a tragedy for most of his fellow citizens. He talked for the first time publicly about how he had to work driving a taxi during that period to make ends meet.

"After all, what is the collapse of the Soviet Union?" he asked. "This is the collapse of historical Russia under the name of the Soviet Union."

Regarding Iran, how much longer can the regime endure -such rampant corruption? The republic has produced so few goods for its people, while engaging in countless, expensive adventures abroad in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East.

Yet perhaps this all points to the greatest danger of 2022: the swirl of uncertainties around the United States. Adversaries and allies alike question our internal cohesiveness and our external capability and willingness to act.

The glue that has held the global system together during most of the period after WWII, the United States, looks unstuck to many in the world. America doesn't want China or anyone else to replace its traditional global leadership role, and it's not retiring from the scene. But it's struggling to find updated and effective means to shape world affairs.

To be fair, the Biden administration and its remarkably accomplished foreign relations team diagnosed each of these challenges early and brilliantly.

Indeed, in this space a year ago, I wrote, "Joe Biden has that rarest of opportunities that history provides: the chance to be a transformative foreign policy president."

In March, Biden himself declared, "Our world is at an inflection point. Global dynamics have shifted. New crises demand our attention. One thing is certain: we will only succeed in advancing American interests and upholding our universal values by working in common cause with our closest allies and partners, and by renewing our own enduring sources of national strength."

It's never easy to turn rhetoric into execution, but that is what 2022 needs to be about. A president's first year in office is always messy, and this one has been particularly so.

The true test of Biden's second year will be less over whether his administration understands the historic nature of the challenges (it does) and more about whether it can organize itself domestically and internationally to manage 2022's geopolitical challenges.

Worse than questioning our values, our partners and allies are worried about our capability and competence to act.

This year of living dangerously will get off to a brisk start with the Winter Olympics in Beijing and more Russian troop movements near Ukraine. It will wrap up with a Chinese Communist Party Congress likely to make Xi leader for life and U.S. midterm elections.

In this year of living dangerously, however, it may be the U.S., more than any other actor, whose actions and inactions will drive the plot.

Frederick Kempeis the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.

Originally posted here:
Op-ed: Welcome to 2022, the year of living dangerously with China, Russia and Iran but the U.S. will drive the plot - CNBC