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VIENNA, March 1 (Reuters) - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday the war in Ukraine should be stopped and accused the "mafia-like regime" of the United States of creating the conflict.

Russia, whose troops invaded Ukraine last week, is a strategic partner for Iran, which has been under Western sanctions for years. While Tehran and Washington have been foes for decades, Iran and Russia have deepened trade ties and have been allies in the Syrian conflict.

"The U.S. regime creates crises, lives off of crises and feeds on various crises in the world. Ukraine is another victim of this policy," Khamenei said in a televised speech.

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"In my view, Ukraine is a victim of the crises concocted by the United States," he said. "There are two lessons to be learnt here. States which depend on the support of the U.S. and Western powers need to know they cannot trust such countries."

Khamenei criticised Washington and other Western nations as talks reached a critical stage in Vienna between Iran and world powers about reviving a 2015 nuclear deal.

Despite progress in the talks, the key sticking point is Tehran wants the issue of uranium traces found at several old but undeclared sites in Iran to be dropped and closed forever, an Iranian official told Reuters.

Tehran objects to claims by the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that Iran failed to fully explain the uranium traces.

Britain's lead negotiator at the talks, Stephanie Al-Qaq, defended the IAEA, and said Britain, France, and Germany opposed interfering in its work.

"We will always reject any attempt to compromise IAEA independence," she wrote on Twitter.

Iran said on Monday efforts to revive the pact could succeed if the United States took a political decision to meet Tehran's remaining demands, as months of negotiations enter what one Iranian diplomat called a "now or never" stage.

The stakes are high, because the failure of 10 months of talks could carry the risk of a fresh regional war, more harsh sanctions on Iran by the West, and continued upward pressure on world oil prices already strained by the Ukraine conflict.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman has said the remaining issues included the extent to which sanctions would be rolled back and providing guarantees that the United States would not quit the pact again.

All parties involved in the talks say progress has been made toward the restoration of the pact to curb Tehran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, which the United States abandoned in 2018. But both Tehran and Washington have said there are still some significant differences to overcome.

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Reporting by Dubai Newsroom; Writing by Michael Georgy and Arshad Mohammed; Editing by Alex Richardson, Jon Boyle and Rosalba O'Brien

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Iran's supreme leader criticises U.S. over Ukraine crisis ...

On March 15, 1995, by Executive Order 12957, the President declared a national emergency pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701-1706), to deal with the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States constituted by the actions and policies of the Government of Iran. On May 6, 1995, the President issued Executive Order 12959, imposing more comprehensive sanctions on Iran to further respond to this threat. On August 19, 1997, the President issued Executive Order 13059, consolidating and clarifying those previous orders. The President took additional steps pursuant to this national emergency in Executive Order 13553 of September 28, 2010; Executive Order 13574 of May 23, 2011; Executive Order 13590 of November 20, 2011; Executive Order 13599 of February 5, 2012; Executive Order 13606 of April 22, 2012; Executive Order 13608 of May 1, 2012; Executive Order 13622 of July 30, 2012; Executive Order 13628 of October 9, 2012; Executive Order 13645 of June 3, 2013; Executive Order 13716 of January 16, 2016, which revoked Executive Orders 13574, 13590, 13622, 13645, and provisions of Executive Order 13628; Executive Order 13846 of August 6, 2018, which revoked Executive Orders 13716 and 13628; Executive Order 13871 of May 8, 2019; Executive Order 13876 of June 24, 2019; Executive Order 13902 of January 10, 2020; and Executive Order 13949 of September 21, 2020.

The actions and policies of the Government of Iran including its proliferation and development of missiles and other asymmetric and conventional weapons capabilities, its network and campaign of regional aggression, its support for terrorist groups, and the malign activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its surrogates continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States.

For these reasons, the national emergency declared on March15, 1995, must continue in effect beyond March 15, 2022. Therefore, in accordance with section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), I am continuing for 1year the national emergency with respect to Iran declared in Executive Order 12957. The emergency declared by Executive Order 12957 constitutes an emergency separate from that declared on November 14, 1979, by Executive Order 12170, in connection with the hostage crisis. This renewal, therefore, is distinct from the emergency renewal of November 9, 2021.

This notice shall be published in the Federal Register and transmitted to the Congress.

JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

THE WHITE HOUSE,

March 3, 2022.

Originally posted here:
Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to Iran - The White House

Flag in front of Irans Foreign Ministry building in Tehran(Morteza Nikoubazl/Reuters)

There is speculation that the Vienna negotiations will conclude with a deal in the next 72 hours. Reza Zandi, an Iranian oil and gas analyst, tweeted:

Russias chief negotiator in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, is sending similar signals, saying that steps are being taken to finalise the deal:

Iran, which has been given practically every concession from spineless American negotiators, is about to gain the biggest win of all: a market desperate for oil.According to Markets Insider, in response to these hints, oil prices dropped from their highest levels since 2008:

Brent crude, the international benchmark, had been up as much as 6.1% at $119.84 before reversing course. Brent lost 3.1% then pared the decline to 0.5%. West Texas Intermediate crude had been up as much as 5.3% at $116.57, then fell by nearly 4% before paring the intraday loss to 0.4%.

As war rages on after Russias invasion of Ukraine, oil prices have exceeded $100 a barrel. With Putin showing no signs of deescalation, oil prices are likely to remain high. This means that Iran is about to inherit, as Mr. Zandi puts it, golden circumstances for a reentry into the oil market.

With Vienna negotiations coinciding with Putins invasion, some have suggested a deal with Iran as a solution to impeding oil shortages. Ellen Wald from the Atlantic Council suggested that a nuclear deal could help tamp down spiking oil prices:

Of course, there are more important national security issues involved in the relationship with Iran and those must take precedence. However, if the focus is just on the problem of high oil prices, a deal with Iran would help. There has been significant progress in negotiations over the past two weeks, and Iran analysts seem positive that a deal could be reached soon. According to the latest deal under discussion, an agreement would lift sanctions in the second phase of implementation, which could be between one and three months after signing. If this moves forward, Iran potentially could put between 67 million and 87 million barrels of condensate and crude oil that it has in storage on the global market immediately. In fact, Iran is communicating with potential buyers in Korea, a sign that they believe a deal and sanctions relief is possible.

The Islamic Republic is eager to show that it can quickly supply oil. Earlier today (auspicious timing, huh?), Iranian oil minister Javad Owji said that as soon as a deal is struck in Vienna, Iran can achieve maximum oil production capacity in less than one or two months. The Islamic Republic currentlyhas approximately 80 million barrels of oil in storage and could produce up to 1.2 million barrels a day.No wonder oil markets are in a frenzy.

But this deal wasnt meant to shore up the global oil market. This deal was meant to rein in Irans nuclear capabilities and its destabilizing behavior (it does neither, by the way). Now, Iran isnt just getting $8 million to $10 million in frozen oil money; its scoring a particularly advantageous oil market with which to fund its regional terrorist proxies.

Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told National Reviewthat the Iranian regime has driven their economy into the ground even before sanctions. Should sanctions be lifted, the cash infusion really will allow them to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. This is especially true for Irans terroristic proxies: A new deal and end to maximum pressure will throw a lifeline to Hezbollah. Rubin, who visited Hezbollahs territory in southern Lebanon last year, observed a major decline in Irans favorite proxy, observing that the group was losing its members in droves as the money dried up.

As if that wasnt enough, the Biden administration is allegedly planning tolift all terrorism sanctions on Iran, meaning its state sponsorship of terrorism will be unfettered and internationally approved.

Khamenei, Nasrallah, and company are likely jumping for joy. And they should be: Bidens negotiators couldnt have crafted a weaker deal at a worse time if theyd tried.

More here:
Iran and Its Proxies Are about to Cash In on Ukraine - National Review

In a parallel universe seemingly far from Russias invasion of Ukraine, diplomats from Europe, the United States, Russia, China and Iran are in Vienna feverishly trying to revive the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The plan imposed tough constraints on Irans nuclear program in exchange for the Wests easing some sanctions but the deal fizzled after the Trump administrations withdrawal in 2018.

Now negotiators in Vienna, motivated to sign a new pact before cooperation with Russia becomes impossible, are grappling with contentious issues like sanctions relief and unresolved investigations into Irans past nuclear activity at undeclared sites.

Yet even if negotiations succeed, the post-deal environment could be much more unstable than it was seven years ago. There are some important gains to be had, such as renewed limits and inspections on Irans nuclear program; there are nearly no restraints at all right now. A forum where Russia and the West continue cooperating may also be a bonus. And expanding nuclear nonproliferation agreements seems more critical than ever at a time when Putin has put Russias nuclear forces on alert.

But if expectations were low about the original deals ability to transform and stabilize the region, expectations could be even lower this time. Trumps withdrawal from the 2015 deal and the subsequent Iranian nuclear violations and military escalation have altered the region for the worse. Several challenges thus remain even if the Vienna negotiations succeed.

First, President Bidens ambitions to achieve a longer and stronger deal to build on the 2015 terms seem unrealistic. At this stage, just salvaging the original constraints would be an achievement.

A revived deal might not be what Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett disparages as a shorter and weaker deal, which he claims would expire within 2 years, or in 2025. In reality, many of the constraints in areas including uranium enrichment levels and stockpiling, as well as inspection mechanisms, were set to last up to 15 years; some aspects of the deal were indefinite. A revived deal could meaningfully delay Irans nuclear progress by more than 2 years.

But from the start, neither the Biden administration nor the new hard-line Iranian leadership under President Ebrahim Raisi has been in a hurry to negotiate. Both sides face considerable domestic opposition to reviving an agreement.

A revived deal might exclude some important issues such as missiles, which have become a dire military threat on their own even without being linked to nuclear capacities. Had a nuclear agreement been in effect since 2015, perhaps the signatories could now be building on it to address such concerns, rather than starting over.

A second challenge is that Israeli-Iranian escalation may become more difficult to contain this time around. Israels attacks on Iran and Iranian-aligned groups in Syria have continued and even expanded since 2015. Israel had paused sabotage and assassination attacks once nuclear negotiations started after 2012 on an interim deal. Those attacks remained on pause following the final 2015 accord, but after Trumps withdrawal, Israels attacks on Iranian nuclear sites resumed, even on the eve of negotiations to revive the deal in April 2021. If Israel does not believe a renewed agreement sufficiently constrains Irans program, or considers the timeline too short, attacks could continue even if Iran complies.

A third challenge will loom if these talks succeed: There may be no more do-overs. If the next American administration again withdraws from the agreement, or if Iran violates its terms because the provided economic relief is not sufficient, the agreement will almost certainly not be salvaged again. Mistrust could be too high.

Iran may reconsider its stated position to remain a non-nuclear state if it feels it has little to lose by going nuclear and more to gain with a nuclear deterrent. The West may be too distracted with global crises and great power competition to expend the political capital to find a way back to the negotiating table. The international community may just accept a status quo of muddling through with Iran as a nuclear threshold state.

None of these futures is particularly appealing. But an even worse future would be to face global volatility like were seeing today, but with another nuclear-armed state in the Middle East. The reemergence of the Iran nuclear deal should prompt a sigh of relief. But a regional order that is genuinely stable and peaceful remains a distant goal.

Dalia Dassa Kaye is an adjunct political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan Rand Corp. and a senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations.

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Op-Ed: Reviving the Iran nuclear deal would just be a start - Los Angeles Times

Shifting regional geopolitical dynamics are creating new alliances and competition.

With the election of President Joe Biden's administration in the US and the continued Americanpivot to Asia, regional dynamics in the Middle East have entered a new phase. All states are adjusting their policies to this new reality, but Iran, in particular, hopes to use this next period to expand its regional zone of influence. While regional states are entering new alliances to limit Iran, Trkiye in particular may enter a new phase of competition with the Islamic Republic.

The Obama administrations Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) paved the way for further Iranian aggression in the Middle East. It wasSaudi Arabia that tried to confront Iran, engaging in several proxy wars with the Islamic Republic eventually losing ground and surrendering its influence in the region. Stuck in Yemen for years, Saudi Arabia no longer has meaningful tools to limit Iran in Syria and Iraq.

However, the election of Donald Trump, who exited the nuclear deal and pursued a maximum pressure campaign on Iran, gave Arab countries in the Middle East a period of reprieve from worrying about Tehrans reach. Some Arab states concentrated on limiting Trkiye instead, as they perceived Turkish influence on the Arab world as a direct threat to regime survival.

Iran, on the other hand, played thelong game. As the US increasingly turns its focus to China and Russia, Iran is anticipating an opportunity to consolidate its gains and increase its regional leverage.

Warning shots

In January, Iranian-backed Houthi and other militias targeted the UAE with drones and missiles, signalling Iranian capabilities to target the oil-rich Arab states. It was a warning shot clearly received in the Gulf nation. If Iran successfully negotiates a new nuclear deal and is relieved of economic sanctions, Tehran will be able to continue its policies of regional aggression via local proxies.

Cognizant of this new reality, the UAE is trying hard not only tonormalise relations with Trkiye but also to evolve it into a strategic partnership for its national security and economic interests. Years of rivalry with Ankara have taught Abu Dhabi of the formers capabilities, and it appears that it now wants Trkiye by its side.

Israel, too, appears toaccept that itneeds Trkiye. The recent normalisation of relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv will further expand the emerging alliance in the Middle East to contain Iran. The expectation of a more aggressive Iran one could say may have been a catalyst for the rapprochement of Israel and the UAE with Trkiye.

The importance of local partners

While all of the states have their military, economic and other capabilities they can wield against Tehran, it is Trkiye that has local partners in the key sites of Iranian expansion.

Without local partner forces, no state can confront Iran in the Middle East, as the Iranian playbook is based on proxy forces and proxy wars. Without strong local partners to confront Iran, their proxies will win.

In Syria, the Syrian Interim Government and its military, the Syrian National Army, are crucial to confront any possible Iranian aggression. Ankaras strong relations with the Syrian Interim Government may prove essential in limiting Iran. The Syrian National Army has proven its combat efficiency and is a powerfulanti-Iranian force in the Middle East. Most notably, Turkish drones and Trkiye-supported soldiers of the Syrian National Army haveeliminated dozens of Iranian-backed Shia militias in Idlib.

In Iraq, Turkish counterterrorism operations against the PKK terror group have reacheda new stage in which the Iranian-Turkish rivalry over Iraqi politics will decide the fate of the PKK. Trkiye wants to aid the Iraqi Central Government and the Kurdish Regional Government to re-establish sovereignty over territories currently held by the terror group. Iran wants toshield the PKK to keep Trkiye busy in the north of Iraq and therefore guarantee long-lived Iranian leverage over domestic Iraqi affairs.

In this manner, the results of the recent elections and the formation of a new government are crucial. Iranian allies lost, while the Sadr Movement won, and Turkish allies like the KDP and the Sunni parties won many seats in parliament. It was Trkiye thatbrought the Sunni Iraqi parties together.

Therefore, recent Turkish counterintelligence operations againstIranian cells in Trkiye could be just the beginning of a new era of Turkish-Iranian competition and regional alliances.

It appears that the UAE, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Interim Government, the Kurdish Regional Government, the Iraqi Central Government, the anti-Iranian forces in Lebanon, and other Arab states will bet on Trkiye to limit further Iranian aggression.

An increase in Turkish arms sales to the Gulf States, as well as growing economic and military cooperation, can be expected. Regional states that fear Iranian drone attacks and Iranian proxies will want to learn from the Turkish experience.

For Trkiye, its regional interests and the success of its counterterrorism operations will depend on limiting Iran. If Iran manages to achieve another wave of successes like it did against Saudi Arabia during the Obama administration, the results may be irreversible.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT World.

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Source: TRT World

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A new era of Turkish-Iranian competition may be on the horizon - TRT World