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This month marks the 43rdanniversary of the advent of Irans Islamic regime. It took power in the wake of the revolution of 197879 that toppled the Shahs pro-Western monarchy, transforming the mainly Shia Iran into an Islamic republic, with an anti-US posture. It challenged the US-dominated regional order and the international system.

At the time, many critics regarded the regime as an oddity in world politics and seriously doubted its longevity. Yet, the regime has defied all predictions and grown to become an important player in the region and on the international stage. What has made it so durable?

The regime has managed to weather many serious domestic and foreign policy problems, causing it periodic regional and global isolation at a high cost for Iranian society. The challenges have included internal power struggles, a devasting war with Iraq in the 1980s, continued hostility with the US and its regional allies and Israel in particular, and US-led sanctions over Irans nuclear program and alleged support for international terrorism. There was also the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq (both Irans neighbours) and the rise of the anti-Shia Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Several factors account for the regimes resilience, but three stand out. The first is the politically pluralist theocratic nature of the regime, as defined by the founder and first supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (19791989). The system of velayat-e faqhi (the guardianship of the Islamic jurist) that Khomeini established spawned an interplay primarily between two clerical factions.

One is jihadi, or conservative and hardline, denoting an adherence to a traditionalist view of Islam and advocating a combative, revolutionary and largely inward-looking approach to Islamic governance and Irans transformation. The other is ijtihadi, or reformist and internationalist, relying on a creative interpretation and application of Islam according to changing times and conditions, based on independent human reasoning.

The jihadi faction, who identify themselves as the core followers of Khomeini, dominated the levers of power from the early days of the Islamic regime. The ijtihadi faction began to take shape from 1988 in support of Khomeini but advocating a moderate, pluralistic Islamic system of governance with a humane face.

Although initially the two factions, as multi-faceted as they have been, cooperated in the conduct of Irans domestic and foreign policy, over time they differed on what constituted a good and workable Islamic system of governance. The result has been an Iranian Islamic state that has become less ideological and more pragmatic in the management of the countrys affairs. It has assumed a degree of internal elasticity and external flexibility, irrespective of which faction has been in power. Hence, for example, the anti-extremist President Hassan Rouhanis signing of the 2015 nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany.

The impulsive Republican US President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions to pressure Tehran for a better deal in accord with American interests and those of Irans two regional rivals, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Tehran retaliated by expanding its centrifuges and uranium enrichment to the alarm of Trumps Democratic successor, Joe Biden.

Biden has sought to revive the JCPOA, and Rouhanis successor from the hardline faction, Ebrahim Raisia close ally of the powerful supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameneihas shown amiability. Raisi is keen to reach an agreement in return for the lifting of Americas crippling sanctions and a guarantee that future US administrations wont repeat Trumps actions. Biden wants to secure a deal to prevent Iran from acquiring a military nuclear capability and to enable the US to focus more on its global adversaries, Russia and China.

The second factor is that, despite all the economic and financial difficulties caused partly by US sanctions and partly by mismanagement and malpractice, the regime has managed to strengthen its hard- and soft-power capabilities. It has done so with a clear objective to make any attack on Iran very costly for its perpetrator through a strategy of asymmetrical warfare. It has concurrently taken advantage of Americas policy failures in the region to forge close organic and strategic relations with several national or subnational actors, especially in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, to build a regional security architecture and deterrence system. In the event of a war with the US or Israel or both, the regime has secured the necessary means to turn an assault on Iran into a regional infernoan issue that must make its adversaries ponder on the cost of a confrontation with Iran.

The third factor is that, while the regime has lost much of its gloss with the Iranian publicmost of whom belong to the post-197879 revolution generation and want political and social rights and freedoms and economic prosperityit still commands sufficient state instrumentalities of power to deal with any nationwide uprisings. It has forged a mixture of heavenly and earthly measures of legitimacy, based on a blend of Islam with Iranians historical sense of fierce nationalism to support an electoral polyarchy.

While Iran and, for that matter, the Middle East have often defied predictions, Irans Islamic regime is well saddled to ensure its survival against all internal and external odds. It has achieved a position of regional solidity and influence that could not have been anticipated at any time. It has rejoiced in the US defeat in Afghanistan and forged close ties with Russia and China to counter US pressure. How long will this situation last? Only time will tell.

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The Iranian regime's tumultuous journey to 43 | The Strategist - The Strategist

Germany must act immediately to prevent the hanging of a national detained in Iran who risks the death penalty on charges vehemently denied by his supporters, his family and activists said on Monday.

Anti-regime activist Jamshid Sharmahd, 66, appeared in court in Tehran earlier this month charged with "spreading corruption on earth" over accusations of involvement in a bombing at a mosque in 2008.

If convicted on this charge, which campaigners say is often used against opponents of the government, he could face execution.

"It is of the utmost importance that the German federal government act immediately to prevent the planned state assassination of Mr Sharmahd," his daughter Gazelle and more than two dozen other activists said in an open letter to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

"We urge you to take immediate, serious and sustained action to save the life of the 66-year-old German citizen and his family from this horrific act," said the signatories, who included former detainees in Iran and family members of those still held.

Sharmahd's family say that he was abducted by the Iranian security services in 2020 while in transit in Dubai and then brought under duress to Iran.

He is affiliated with an anti-regime group known as Kingdom Assembly of Iran and had been based in the United States.

The family fears he risks a similar fate to France-based Ruhollah Zam, who was executed in December 2020 after leaving Paris in October 2020 for Iraq, where supporters say he was detained by Iran.

The letter said the family was "very concerned" for the health of Sharmahd, who was now "severely emaciated".

It noted that his trial is presided over by Abolqasem Salavati, the same judge who had sentenced Zam to death.

"We urge that the matter be given top priority, that a crisis management team be set up, and that the German government exhaust all political and diplomatic avenues to put pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran," said the letter.

Story continues

"A general condemnation of the death penalty and a call to respect human rights are not enough."

Sharmahd is one of over a dozen Western nationals -- including American, Austrian, British, French and German citizens -- still held in Iran as talks to revive the 2015 deal over Tehran's nuclear drive reach an acute phase.

Iran accuses Sharmahd of being involved in the April 12, 2008, bombing of a mosque in Shiraz in southern Iran, which killed 14 people.

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Germany urged to save citizen risking execution in Iran - Yahoo News

The comprehensive 25-year Iran-China Strategic Cooperation Agreement has once again generated controversy in Iran, leading to more tensions between supporters and opponents. This is the third widespread public argument since it was first proposed six years ago. Despite only being finalized in 2021, the agreement itself is nothing new, with this periodic anger emerging occasionally and just as quickly disappearing. It is possible that the nuclear talks between Iran and its P5+1 partners in the US and Europe are among the major factors leading to the rise in tensions and to domestic criticisms periodically leveled at the agreement.The agreement was first proposed in 2016 during the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Iran. But it did not enter into force at the time. Since the proposal was a reaction to the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal and of Irans openness to Western investments, there was no need for the deal to actually take effect. It once again came to the fore in late 2020 as a result of the dangerous consequences created by the US withdrawal from its deal with Iran under President Donald Trump, when his successor Joe Biden assumed the presidency. In March 2021, the Chinese foreign minister, and his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, under the government of Hassan Rouhani, signed the deal in Tehran, although they stopped short of publishing the agreements full text or provisions, some of its terms were leaked to the media. Despite this, the agreement still has not entered into force up to the current day as the Iranian parliament has not ratified or seriously debated it.In January 2022, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi met in China and announced that the deal had indeed entered into force. This surprising announcement was followed by a statement from Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, who asserted that there could be no implementation of the agreement unless parliament approved it. Meanwhile, Iranian lawmaker Abbas Gorlu told the Tasnim news agency that the 25-year comprehensive partnership agreement between Iran and China is merely a memorandum of understanding and a framework for joint cooperation and that no binding deal or agreement has been concluded between the two countries so far. This was a reiteration of Ghalibafs comments during a parliamentary session on April 4, 2021, in which he described the deal as a general roadmap, meaning it is nonbinding for both sides, and this had been agreed on for the time being.The 18 pages of the agreement leaked to Iranian media outlets last year perhaps deliberately reveal cooperation between the two countries in long-term economic, security and military fields valued at $400 billion over 25 years. China neither confirmed nor denied the leak. Asked by The Diplomat, an international online magazine, about the details, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, said the agreement was a plan to take advantage of the potential economic and cultural cooperation between the two countries and chart a course for long-term cooperation, adding that it did not include any specific contracts or objectives.There may well be significant economic, political and strategic gains for China and Iran if they take serious steps toward implementing the provisions of the leaked agreement, although we lack room here to analyze these satisfactorily. On the other hand, however, it is Iran, not China, that is currently facing serious challenges and dangers as a result of the deal. To name a few, there are well-founded concerns about the potential for subordination of Iranian interests, not to mention the hegemony of a foreign power over the countrys sensitive sectors, or even the possibility that Iran may fall into a trap of Chinese debts. There are the main objections domestically to moving ahead with the agreement given the current, already growing Chinese economic hegemony over many emerging economies presently through the back door of trade and investment. In addition to this, while $400 billion in investments seems like a vast amount, the long period of the agreement diminishes the value of this figure; it is highly likely, after all, that its value after 10 years, let alone after 25 years, will be lower than its value today in light of the severe inflation currently gripping the world.

Iran still needs China to support its negotiating position and achieve a balance within the P4+1 group.

Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami

The most important development at the present is the ever-more heated debate over the agreement since this comes at a time when Iran is engaged in tough talks with the US and European countries to reach a new deal that brings about relief from the economic sanctions, which have caused the Iranian people to endure woeful conditions over the past three years. Iran still needs China to support its negotiating position and achieve a balance within the P4+1 group. Thus, there is no problem for Iran to hint at rapprochement with China, help Beijings policy of polarization to counter US clout globally and throw weight behind a multipolar global order to score points in the talks with the West or even merely expedite the lifting of the economic sanctions. In effect, the agreement is a tool to counter pressures among the different parties.There are factors that increase the chances of moving ahead with the agreement though on a selective basis such as increasing cooperation in the economic and commercial fields between China and Iran (China is Irans biggest trade partner presently). This comes amid the desire of the incumbent Iranian regime to put an end to the Western countries pressures on Tehran periodically as Ebrahim Raisi stated before in return for them accepting the non-expansion of the partnership beyond a certain level, for internal, international, and geopolitical considerations.Despite scaling down its presence in the region, the US is still influential and has policies and alliances opposed to the Chinese moves and objectives, whether in the region or worldwide. It is undoubtedly interested in curbing the Iranian nuclear program and reaching a deal that maintains its allies security and stability in the region, at the top of which comes Israel, and curtails the Iran-China rapprochement.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

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Iran's 25-year pact with China sparks controversy in Tehran - Arab News

Ramazan Sharif, the spokesperson for the media department of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), addressed the leak of an audio file that includes the force's former commander speaking about corruption.

The audio was published by US-funded Radio Farda.In the nearly hour-long audio file, former head of the IRGC Mohammad Ali Jaffari can be heard speaking with IRGC economic affairs deputy Sadegh Zolgadr about corruption at the Tehran municipality under former Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is now speaker of parliament. The audio also makes references to former Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and IRGC Intelligence chief Hossein Taeb.

In the file, Zolgadr tells Jaffari that Ghalibaf, while he was mayor, was upset about an embezzlement case involving a missing $3 billion. Ghalibaf had met Zolgadr in person and tried to convince him to sign a contract for the missing amount in order to help him cover it up. Zolgadr claims to have responded to Ghalibaf, This is illegal. It will be to my detriment and to your detriment as well.

The issues are linked to various IRGC economic dealings, which in part fund IRGC activities. According to Jaffari, one of the issues was over Yas Holding, a subsidiary of the IRGCs Cooperatives Foundation. He said that Soleimani had complained to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the Quds Force was struggling to acquire funds due to the corruption. Khamenei had ordered that 90% of Yas Holding's earnings go to the Quds Force and the rest go to the IRGC. Yas Holding was dissolved in 2018, and some of its officials were sentenced to prison for corruption.

In addressing the audio file, Sharif downplayed the significance of its publication. He said that the IRGC itself became aware of the mismanagement and corruption of one of its economic subsidiaries. Sharif also added that the IRGC investigated the case themselves, sent the case to the judiciary and helped them prosecute those beyond the mismanagement and corruption. He said that at the time, the national media covered the news.

Meanwhile, the current nuclear negotiations in Vienna are still taking place. Iran is seeking US sanctions removal, and the United States wants Iran to roll back its nuclear program to levels stipulated by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the United States exited in 2018 under the previous administration.

In a press conference, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, The West needs to stop playing with time and the text. He said Western countries are trying to play for shock and time, and they need to show their good intentions and return to their commitments under the JCPOA. When the United States exited the deal and reapplied sanctions, European countries while disagreeing with the decision abided by the sanctions due to fears of secondary sanctions by the US Treasury.

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Iran's IRGC confirms leaked audio of former head discussing corruption - Al-Monitor

Highlights

G7 finance ministers warn of 'massive, immediate' penalties

Russian banks expected to be top targets of initial response

Platts Analytics sees direct energy sanctions as less likely

Russia's top banks are likely to be a key target of Western sanctions in response to a potential invasion of Ukraine, with significant market impact spreading across borders, Center for a New American Security experts said Feb. 14.

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The panel predicted the US, EU and UK governments would act with relative cohesion, leveling penalties within days.

The experts project the 55 Bcm/year Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany would be canceled -- as US and European leaders have threatened in recent weeks -- but no other direct energy sanctions, at least immediately.

G7 finance ministers said in a joint statement Feb. 14 that "any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine will be met with a swift, coordinated and forceful response."

"We are prepared to collectively impose economic and financial sanctions which will have massive and immediate consequences on the Russian economy," the G7 statement said.

Adjunct fellow Eddie Fishman, who advised on sanctions issues in the Obama administration's State Department, predicted at the CNAS event that the US response would start strong and potentially escalate further to even "Iran-level sanctions" within several months.

"I don't think the Biden administration is going to do that right away, but I do think that's kind of the course of events that will unfold if Putin makes this decision to invade in the coming days or weeks," Fishman said. It was not "tenable for energy to be off the table long term if Russia were to invade Ukraine."

Listing Russia's top state-owned banks on the Treasury Department's blocked list would have "enormous impact" on the country's economy, said Maria Shagina, a visiting fellow at the US Center for Politics and Power.

The economic blowback could cut across borders and sectors, according to Tom Keatinge, director of RUSI's Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies.

"I'm not sure for how long economies would be prepared to take that kind of pressure," Keatinge said. "The reality of this is the integration between Russia and Western economies means that there will need to be a degree of self-harm if we are going to create the sort of pressure on Russia that Western leaders -- particularly UK and US leaders -- have been promising."

CNAS alum Elizabeth Rosenberg, a top sanctions official in the Biden administration's Treasury Department, met with European officials in the week ended Feb. 11 to discuss potential sanctions coordination. She led CNAS's Energy, Economics and Security program after serving in the Obama administration.

US President Joe Biden has vowed to impose "swift and severe consequences" on Russia if it attacks Ukraine, including financial sanctions to restrict foreign capital and export controls to block US software and technologies.

Other options include banning Russia from dollar trades and blocking access to the international financial messaging service SWIFT, both of which analysts see as less likely because they would have massive consequences for energy markets and the global economy.

US senators are still negotiating their own sanctions bill, but the White House holds broad executive power to impose sanctions.

Platts Analytics does not expect the US to impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil customers, given Europe's heavy dependence on the flows and oil prices already at $90/b.

"The West is unlikely to jeopardize such large volumes," Platts Analytics said.

Russia was the No. 3 oil supplier to the US in November after Canada and Mexico, US Energy Information Administration data showed Jan. 31, as the Ukraine crisis threatens to disrupt the flows.

Platts Analytics expects any disruption in the Russian crude to have a minor effect, as US refiners could backfill by easing exports of US Gulf Coast sour crudes, such as Mars. Lower US imports of Russian oil feedstocks would have a bigger impact, but Gulf Coast refiners could run Canadian or Latin American heavy grades at the cost of margins.

Excerpt from:
Russia could face 'Iran-level sanctions' within months of potential Ukraine invasion: analysts - S&P Global